2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets!

[Hispo]

If i use crowd psychology to try and predict the outcome, i can definitely sense the panic from the people who bet on trump now. And democrats seem united and excited about this.

And when it comes to celebrities ability to affect voters, Kamala is getting A-listers to endorse her, and since Beyoncé accepted that Kamala could use 'Freedom' as her campaign song instantly, it's basically direct endorsement. Meanwhile all trump gets is c-listers behind him at best. They are even praising joe biden for sacrificing his ego for the country and stepping back. Which i admit is a noble thing to do.

I would like to believe that things like celebrities and other influencers wouldn't have an effect, but we live in a world where they most definitely do.

I beg to differ on your personal take of the state of the Republican party, they do not seem to be actually nervous or anything like that, actually, since Donald Trump managed to survive his assassination attempt, I would dare to say they have showed more confidence on Trump as the candidate more likely to win the race for them.
The political left in the USA does not stand as United as it seems, before Jode Biden decided to drop out there was much division on whether they should continue to back Biden or he was supposed to dropout, Biden realized there was much division, so he did the right thing and dropped out the race in favor of someone who could fluently debate Trump and counter his rethoric. There is still division on the left, but not as much as used to be.

[famososMuertos]

...//:::

I see it from a very external point of view, I think that Trump's advantage will continue and will be maintained, I think that the candidate Kamala is another option, but due to the attacks that were made against TRUMP, apart from the attack on his integrity where they almost killed him, that is very decisive in people, because their emotions are on edge, for me that is the only thing that makes him win, I think that any Democratic candidate , whoever it may be, would not have it easy, this will always be a premise, therefore even though I am not American , but if they tell me to bet on someone, I think it would be Trump and I would not change my decision.

That final assessment (you words) leaves me with a doubt, are you referring to Trump as a betting option for a monetary return, or are you referring to him as that patriotic American who bets on democracy and prefers Trump? They are two different cases, okay.

Anyway, I wouldn't be so sure in Trump's case, be careful, this woman can finish like those sprinters in the 5km races, Olympic games.

I mention the 5km race because they say it is one of the most difficult, it is not short, it is not long and you have to have a lot of strategy, it is an underrated competition, but it is one of the best in the Olympics.

The point is that Kamala can be running that race and Trump feels like a winner in the marathon, due to his great advantage, whatever, maybe it is easier to say that it is not as easy for Trump as one thinks.

[Darker45]

If i use crowd psychology to try and predict the outcome, i can definitely sense the panic from the people who bet on trump now. And democrats seem united and excited about this.

And when it comes to celebrities ability to affect voters, Kamala is getting A-listers to endorse her, and since Beyoncé accepted that Kamala could use 'Freedom' as her campaign song instantly, it's basically direct endorsement. Meanwhile all trump gets is c-listers behind him at best. They are even praising joe biden for sacrificing his ego for the country and stepping back. Which i admit is a noble thing to do.

I would like to believe that things like celebrities and other influencers wouldn't have an effect, but we live in a world where they most definitely do.

I beg to differ on your personal take of the state of the Republican party, they do not seem to be actually nervous or anything like that, actually, since Donald Trump managed to survive his assassination attempt, I would dare to say they have showed more confidence on Trump as the candidate more likely to win the race for them.
The political left in the USA does not stand as United as it seems, before Jode Biden decided to drop out there was much division on whether they should continue to back Biden or he was supposed to dropout, Biden realized there was much division, so he did the right thing and dropped out the race in favor of someone who could fluently debate Trump and counter his rethoric. There is still division on the left, but not as much as used to be.

They might not be nervous, but the Republicans are surely getting more serious now with the entry of Kamala as the sure nominee of the Democrats. This isn't anymore Trump-Biden, what would have been an easy fight to win for the Reds.

The assassination could have been a boost for them but I doubt it stays that way up to the election day which is still several months from now. The romantic effect of that to Trump might not last long.

On the other hand, yeah, Kamala has effectively consolidated what was once a divided house. Biden's seemingly selfless move to step aside in favor of a woman in color must have attracted back to the fold many who have earlier decided to abandon the ship.

Things are more thrilling now. Although Trump is still ahead in several surveys, there is only a slight lead, a negligible margin that should push both parties to maximize efforts.

[Blitzboy]

Lol...you guys will not kill me with laughter ...I can't believe you labelled Bitcoin as the decisive factor for the US election, you must be joking. The US election is not a child's play and many factors will determine it, of which Bitcoin will be the least of the factors. I guess you did not do the math well before even saying that. For the record, it's only about 21% of Americans dealing with cryptocurrency, of which many of them will not be eligible voters. This means that a drastically reduced percentage who are dealing with it are also eligible for voting. I can equally assure you that more than half of these people will not influence their votes simply because of Bitcoin. There are various alternatives to invest and make transactions for the Yankees, as such, they do not take Bitcoin to the extreme as you think, except a few.

It's hard to argue with that, but it's logical that such opinions arise on a forum dedicated to Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies). I'm sure that on the forums of believers/gun lovers/anti-abortion/supporters or opponents of migration, everyone is also sure that their question is the main one and the outcome of the vote will depend on it.
I am a big crypto enthusiast, but I think that the attitude towards cryptocurrencies is the last thing that the voter will look at - there are many more pressing issues that attract attention.

Those crypto forums are loud. Their passion. They're no longer a marginal group. Waves are made. I've experienced Bitcoin's power. It excites people. A movement. Movements win elections.

Crypto enthusiasts may not be the majority. But remember, its about the fight in the dog, not the dog's size. Believe me, these guys fight hard. In tight contests and swing states, they could make the difference.

Its not just crypto. About something grander. People are bored with the same old. They're sick of politicians promising change but not doing. Happening everywhere. Argentina is a mess. The world awakens. Will crypto decide the next election? Maybe, maybe not. Its a sign of something deeper. It indicates a desire for change. Friends, we should all pay heed to that.

[Forsyth Jones]

I beg to differ on your personal take of the state of the Republican party, they do not seem to be actually nervous or anything like that, actually, since Donald Trump managed to survive his assassination attempt, I would dare to say they have showed more confidence on Trump as the candidate more likely to win the race for them.
The political left in the USA does not stand as United as it seems, before Jode Biden decided to drop out there was much division on whether they should continue to back Biden or he was supposed to dropout, Biden realized there was much division, so he did the right thing and dropped out the race in favor of someone who could fluently debate Trump and counter his rethoric. There is still division on the left, but not as much as used to be.

Since Trump's failed assassination attempt, this election has been decided for Trump. Trump will win the election and is riding the wave of Bitcoin as an electoral weapon, which gives him a huge advantage, due to the degree of freedom that Bitcoin provides to Americans compared to the legacy fiat model. In addition, the United States is one of the most advanced countries in understanding Bitcoin and crypto compared to other nations.

And with Biden's waiver, the barriers that existed simply disappeared. Kamala won't make that much of a difference to harm Trump. If Biden had at least withdrawn from the beginning, Kamala would have had a chance. We are talking about Trump, who was previously president of the USA, so his electorate and other Americans already know his government.

[Silberman]

That final assessment (you words) leaves me with a doubt, are you referring to Trump as a betting option for a monetary return, or are you referring to him as that patriotic American who bets on democracy and prefers Trump? They are two different cases, okay.

Anyway, I wouldn't be so sure in Trump's case, be careful, this woman can finish like those sprinters in the 5km races, Olympic games.

I mention the 5km race because they say it is one of the most difficult, it is not short, it is not long and you have to have a lot of strategy, it is an underrated competition, but it is one of the best in the Olympics.

The point is that Kamala can be running that race and Trump feels like a winner in the marathon, due to his great advantage, whatever, maybe it is easier to say that it is not as easy for Trump as one thinks.

It will not be nowhere near as easy for Trump to defeat Harris as it was for him to defeat Biden, but as long as the economy is still the main worry among US voters, he has good chances, because Harris as the current VP cannot really take a step back and blame Biden for the inflation that took place and that is still affecting US citizens, when she was a direct participant on those decisions, so Harris needs a way to try to change the focus of the campaign, and if she fails then it is likely she will lose the race for the US presidency as well.

[batang_bitcoin]

It will not be nowhere near as easy for Trump to defeat Harris as it was for him to defeat Biden, but as long as the economy is still the main worry among US voters, he has good chances, because Harris as the current VP cannot really take a step back and blame Biden for the inflation that took place and that is still affecting US citizens, when she was a direct participant on those decisions, so Harris needs a way to try to change the focus of the campaign, and if she fails then it is likely she will lose the race for the US presidency as well.

I wonder how Kamala is going to give all of her campaign speeches without putting any blame to the current administration of Biden. That's a hard part for her for which the majority likes isn't the current one, a republican. It's really hard to be in her place for the incumbent president steps down and pushes the support on her. There's an on going battle there but it seems that even she tries to campaign herself at her best, people simply like Trump. I don't like Trump as he's encouraging people about Bitcoin even though he don't know a satoshi of it.

[EarnOnVictor]

It's hard to argue with that, but it's logical that such opinions arise on a forum dedicated to Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies). I'm sure that on the forums of believers/gun lovers/anti-abortion/supporters or opponents of migration, everyone is also sure that their question is the main one and the outcome of the vote will depend on it.
I am a big crypto enthusiast, but I think that the attitude towards cryptocurrencies is the last thing that the voter will look at - there are many more pressing issues that attract attention.

I was apprehensive when I started reading your post but the concluding part makes a lot of sense. One thing I will not join people to do is to be sentimental, so no matter what I support, I will still face the reality for or against such a thing if need be. I don't see anything reasonable about being an extremist to the point that I will now tell plain lies or not just face reality as many Bitcoiners do. You can imagine someone saying Bitcoin would determine the next US election, who is deceiving who?

So far Trump is succeeding in gathering a crowd using Bitcoin and cryptocurrency talks and people cheers for it. No Bitcoiner cheering for Kamala is already a losing factor for her. Whether 20% or less of the population is into crypto, they count. And the odds of Trump getting reelected are way higher than any of his competitors.

Let Trump continue to deceive you guys, but one thing I can assure you is that he is fake and will do nothing to improve cryptocurrency, he is just using that to buy your votes. But I wonder why you are so freaked about the crowd hailing him when he talks about Bitcoin, do you even know how people think and behave in political gatherings like that?

You might be surprised that less than 5% of the gathering is dealing with Bitcoin but just hailing their candidate regardless of what he speaks.

[beerlover]

I beg to differ on your personal take of the state of the Republican party, they do not seem to be actually nervous or anything like that, actually, since Donald Trump managed to survive his assassination attempt, I would dare to say they have showed more confidence on Trump as the candidate more likely to win the race for them.
The political left in the USA does not stand as United as it seems, before Jode Biden decided to drop out there was much division on whether they should continue to back Biden or he was supposed to dropout, Biden realized there was much division, so he did the right thing and dropped out the race in favor of someone who could fluently debate Trump and counter his rethoric. There is still division on the left, but not as much as used to be.

They might not be nervous, but the Republicans are surely getting more serious now with the entry of Kamala as the sure nominee of the Democrats. This isn't anymore Trump-Biden, what would have been an easy fight to win for the Reds.

The assassination could have been a boost for them but I doubt it stays that way up to the election day which is still several months from now. The romantic effect of that to Trump might not last long.

On the other hand, yeah, Kamala has effectively consolidated what was once a divided house. Biden's seemingly selfless move to step aside in favor of a woman in color must have attracted back to the fold many who have earlier decided to abandon the ship.

Things are more thrilling now. Although Trump is still ahead in several surveys, there is only a slight lead, a negligible margin that should push both parties to maximize efforts.

Timing of DNC is the perfect one, that's the point. I mean first Trump gets that attempt, which could have been a talking point for years, but it didn't. Because Biden just withdrew right a week later, not even a week I think.

It meant that everyone stopped talking about that, and started talking about Kamala situation, then for a week we didn't had the official candidate, but now we do and she is the official candidate, she raised over 100 million dollars in less than a week of it as well, which is insane when you think about how none of that was a big name donator, the top was 3300 dollars, imagine how many people donated to her.

Secondly, look at the future, she is going to be at DNC to talk, and she is going to talk about her VP and there are many things she can do to keep the media on her at all times and not on Trump. This is why the timing of democrats is getting a lot better, they are learning this media game, Trump was a master at it and that's how he won, he kept giving media a talking point once a week, to keep the lights on him, but now that Kamala and democrats figured that out, they are doing the same trick on him and that's why it's been a great period for them. She is even ahead on polls now.

[Catenaccio]

Let Trump continue to deceive you guys, but one thing I can assure you is that he is fake and will do nothing to improve cryptocurrency, he is just using that to buy your votes.

Politicians don't complete all promises they make but some will be done and we can not know what promises from Trump now, will be done in future or will not be completed, if he gets elected. Time, only time can tell.

But I wonder why you are so freaked about the crowd hailing him when he talks about Bitcoin, do you even know how people think and behave in political gatherings like that?

You might be surprised that less than 5% of the gathering is dealing with Bitcoin but just hailing their candidate regardless of what he speaks.

With the clear manipulation of Democrats Party on social media, recently with Google search and past years with their cooperation with government to hide information on Hunter Biden's activities, it's good chance for Trump to take advantage of it when US. people want change.

Will he do something better for the USA, time will tell but if people want change, they can do it with their votes. See what's happening in Venezuela.

[Sithara007]

With the clear manipulation of Democrats Party on social media, recently with Google search and past years with their cooperation with government to hide information on Hunter Biden's activities, it's good chance for Trump to take advantage of it when US. people want change.

Will he do something better for the USA, time will tell but if people want change, they can do it with their votes. See what's happening in Venezuela.

Back in 2020, it was Twitter which did election interference on behalf of the Democrat Party (back then it was still owned by Jack Patrick Dorsey and the control was with Vijaya Gadde, Parag Agrawal and Yoel Roth). With free speech returning to Twitter (after it's takeover by Elon Musk), Democrats are now resorting to Google, Facebook and Instagram to manipulate public opinion. And this is real election interference, unlike the hoax that was created about Russians manipulating elections in the United States.

[Hispo]

...

Certainly, Trump is a master at getting the attention he wants from the Public. There is no question about it, it is a game which he knows how to play very well,because as the populist he is, he manages to get all the attention naturally.
On the other hand, the democrat party is too accustomed to the establishment way to get things done and had never embraced the ways populists use to keep in touch with their voters. Kamala getting the lightspot in this race could be an example on how the democrat party is trying to take attention away from Trump and the attempt he suffered, it has worked pretty much fine for now, but I doubt they will be able to keep that strategy for too long.

[OgNasty]

With the clear manipulation of Democrats Party on social media, recently with Google search and past years with their cooperation with government to hide information on Hunter Biden's activities, it's good chance for Trump to take advantage of it when US. people want change.

Will he do something better for the USA, time will tell but if people want change, they can do it with their votes. See what's happening in Venezuela.

Back in 2020, it was Twitter which did election interference on behalf of the Democrat Party (back then it was still owned by Jack Patrick Dorsey and the control was with Vijaya Gadde, Parag Agrawal and Yoel Roth). With free speech returning to Twitter (after it's takeover by Elon Musk), Democrats are now resorting to Google, Facebook and Instagram to manipulate public opinion. And this is real election interference, unlike the hoax that was created about Russians manipulating elections in the United States.

It is crazy the way search results are being skewed to alter the opinions of people. I noticed it before the news was commenting on it even. A shame that Google has been taken over by woke liberals and can’t be used as a serious research tool anymore. I honestly can’t believe this is happening in America. Something is wrong.

[KTChampions]

Back in 2020, it was Twitter which did election interference on behalf of the Democrat Party (back then it was still owned by Jack Patrick Dorsey and the control was with Vijaya Gadde, Parag Agrawal and Yoel Roth). With free speech returning to Twitter (after it's takeover by Elon Musk), Democrats are now resorting to Google, Facebook and Instagram to manipulate public opinion. And this is real election interference, unlike the hoax that was created about Russians manipulating elections in the United States.

Yes, it all looks shameful. But I don't understand why no one is doing anything? So many states, so many independent prosecutors - isn't there a reason to investigate corporations that so brazenly manipulate public opinion? It seems that the deep state has captured everything and, apart from X and various niche forums, the truth is nowhere to be found and everyone considers this state of affairs normal.

[Darker45]

~snip~

~snip~

Timing of DNC is the perfect one, that's the point. I mean first Trump gets that attempt, which could have been a talking point for years, but it didn't. Because Biden just withdrew right a week later, not even a week I think.

It meant that everyone stopped talking about that, and started talking about Kamala situation, then for a week we didn't had the official candidate, but now we do and she is the official candidate, she raised over 100 million dollars in less than a week of it as well, which is insane when you think about how none of that was a big name donator, the top was 3300 dollars, imagine how many people donated to her.

Secondly, look at the future, she is going to be at DNC to talk, and she is going to talk about her VP and there are many things she can do to keep the media on her at all times and not on Trump. This is why the timing of democrats is getting a lot better, they are learning this media game, Trump was a master at it and that's how he won, he kept giving media a talking point once a week, to keep the lights on him, but now that Kamala and democrats figured that out, they are doing the same trick on him and that's why it's been a great period for them. She is even ahead on polls now.

Yeah, the lead has now shifted in favor of Kamala. We'll see whether she will sustain this until election day. For now, it seems it has been a smooth ride for her. She now seems to be the apple of the public's eye. She's yet to choose her VP. Yeah, that should be another media attention that will last for a while. She's also been repeatedly challenging Trump for a debate. This woman knows rhetoric. She was a prosecutor. She can definitely give the populist Trump a run for his money.

If I were to bet on Trump, I'd wait for the odds to rise even more. That will happen pretty soon.

[TravelMug]

...

Certainly, Trump is a master at getting the attention he wants from the Public. There is no question about it, it is a game which he knows how to play very well,because as the populist he is, he manages to get all the attention naturally.

Obviously, Trump is good in public, he knows how to make things controversial so that people will talk about him. Specially after the assassination attempt on him and then him talking in the Bitcoin conference.

On the other hand, the democrat party is too accustomed to the establishment way to get things done and had never embraced the ways populists use to keep in touch with their voters. Kamala getting the lightspot in this race could be an example on how the democrat party is trying to take attention away from Trump and the attempt he suffered, it has worked pretty much fine for now, but I doubt they will be able to keep that strategy for too long.

It's going to be very difficult for them although they are in power right now and so they can do and try to manipulate the news and what's not and we can clearly see that. There are social media reports that are in their side saying that Kamala Harris is leading. But in a neutral corner, there are social media that says Trump is leading. And for sure people knows what's the real pulse of the US population right now.

[EarnOnVictor]

Those crypto forums are loud. Their passion. They're no longer a marginal group. Waves are made. I've experienced Bitcoin's power. It excites people. A movement. Movements win elections.

Bro, cool down a bit, hyping will not change anything, let's be practical and constructive, after all, I am also a fan of cryptocurrency, but what I will not do is deceive myself like many of you. No one is saying cryptocurrency is not popular or not a voice to reckon with, but I will always maintain that the percentage of its adopters in the US will still not be a deciding factor in the US election.

If Trump becomes the president today, it's certainly not the crypto mantra that delivered that to me as many factors contribute to the US president winning. These factors include cryptocurrency but the importance of it will always be lower than many other pressing factors. You can't say that 21% (the percentage of the US crypto adopters) of the US population will win the election simply because they adopt cryptocurrency.

Even among the 21%, many of them will be ineligible to vote and among those who are eligible, many may not be crypto bigots as you believed. If you do the arithmetic, you might realise that less than 10% may vote for Trump because of cryptocurrency, which is still very low to win an election.

Let's admit a constructive fact and not noise!

[arwin100]

~snip~

~snip~

Timing of DNC is the perfect one, that's the point. I mean first Trump gets that attempt, which could have been a talking point for years, but it didn't. Because Biden just withdrew right a week later, not even a week I think.

It meant that everyone stopped talking about that, and started talking about Kamala situation, then for a week we didn't had the official candidate, but now we do and she is the official candidate, she raised over 100 million dollars in less than a week of it as well, which is insane when you think about how none of that was a big name donator, the top was 3300 dollars, imagine how many people donated to her.

Secondly, look at the future, she is going to be at DNC to talk, and she is going to talk about her VP and there are many things she can do to keep the media on her at all times and not on Trump. This is why the timing of democrats is getting a lot better, they are learning this media game, Trump was a master at it and that's how he won, he kept giving media a talking point once a week, to keep the lights on him, but now that Kamala and democrats figured that out, they are doing the same trick on him and that's why it's been a great period for them. She is even ahead on polls now.

Yeah, the lead has now shifted in favor of Kamala. We'll see whether she will sustain this until election day. For now, it seems it has been a smooth ride for her. She now seems to be the apple of the public's eye. She's yet to choose her VP. Yeah, that should be another media attention that will last for a while. She's also been repeatedly challenging Trump for a debate. This woman knows rhetoric. She was a prosecutor. She can definitely give the populist Trump a run for his money.

If I were to bet on Trump, I'd wait for the odds to rise even more. That will happen pretty soon.

Oh seems election became more interesting many thought that Trump will get an easy victory this year, but it seems that Kamala Harris also gaining a momentum.

Harris seems to have a good support on some states https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/31/harris-narrows-gap-with-trump-in-us-national-battleground-state-polls

I guess Trump should not take everything easy since If he let those things happen then there's huge chance that Harris will take over the seat.

But I still believe Trump will win this election.

[o48o]

Timing of DNC is the perfect one, that's the point. I mean first Trump gets that attempt, which could have been a talking point for years, but it didn't. Because Biden just withdrew right a week later, not even a week I think.

It meant that everyone stopped talking about that, and started talking about Kamala situation, then for a week we didn't had the official candidate, but now we do and she is the official candidate, she raised over 100 million dollars in less than a week of it as well, which is insane when you think about how none of that was a big name donator, the top was 3300 dollars, imagine how many people donated to her.

Secondly, look at the future, she is going to be at DNC to talk, and she is going to talk about her VP and there are many things she can do to keep the media on her at all times and not on Trump. This is why the timing of democrats is getting a lot better, they are learning this media game, Trump was a master at it and that's how he won, he kept giving media a talking point once a week, to keep the lights on him, but now that Kamala and democrats figured that out, they are doing the same trick on him and that's why it's been a great period for them. She is even ahead on polls now.

Imho, it's about people not knowing her, and for now, because VP's role has traditionally been more in the background, people haven't really paid attention, and everything can change if she makes a good impression now. Polls aren't affected yet, because people want to know what she is all about before giving an opinion.

And speaking about talking points, republicans need to invent completely new ones fast, as old ones are in whole another context now, and are backfiring on their own candinate. I would be amazed if the polls and odds wouldn't change soon. But then again, those have been misleading in the past.

[Catenaccio]

Back in 2020, it was Twitter which did election interference on behalf of the Democrat Party (back then it was still owned by Jack Patrick Dorsey and the control was with Vijaya Gadde, Parag Agrawal and Yoel Roth). With free speech returning to Twitter (after it's takeover by Elon Musk), Democrats are now resorting to Google, Facebook and Instagram to manipulate public opinion. And this is real election interference, unlike the hoax that was created about Russians manipulating elections in the United States.

There is no perfection and the magic from bi-party scheme is it allows people to vote for change, if they want. The votes from citizens force companies, politicians and parties have to change themselves. If not, they will lose their temporary power in the country and they have no other way than changing themselves, philosophy and strategies to serve their people.

What happened with Twitter in the past, Facebook, Google now can be explained but we see how Twitter changed to X, from censorship to less censorship and kind of more support for freedom of speech. If not Elon, other people can do it in a free nation.

It's easy to be a communist in a free country, but try being free in a communist country. It says all.