2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets!

[tygeade]

Almost all of the urban centers within the United States are deep-blue. Even in red states such as Texas and Ohio, the major cities are all controlled by Democrats. And this is especially true with swing states such as Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania. BTW, it is true that illegal aliens don't have the right to vote. But then, Democrats recently blocked a measure that was brought in by the GOP to make identity cards mandatory for voting. And while voting, ideological preferences hardly matter for illegals. All that matter is whether they are allowed to stay or not.

Well that has something to do with culture and how people want to live, not with geography. Meaning that people who are democrats are liking living in the cities and in big buildings and working in offices, it is not that you become a person who is a democrat when you work there, if a republican ends up working there they are still republican and don't change their mind, but republicans prefer to be "backbone" of America and have their own shop, which is a great idea because we need both big companies with democrat office workers, and we need shops with republican owners, you get both of them to build a nation. So right now, we are seeing the same thing on just the map, that's why I think it is going to keep it going.

[stompix]

Since you don't have good comprehension skills, I will explain again. Last census was conducted back in 2020.

Since as always you're an illiterate imbecile with the memory of a goldfish, let me tell you again what shit you posted a day ago:

Now what happens is that if any of the deep blue states, such as California or New York get millions of illegal aliens, then their number of electoral college votes will go up. And this will in turn help the Democrat nominee.

now the imbecile that has been caught again posting crap without knowing tries to spin it:

It is natural for California and New York to lose population, and for Texas and Florida to gain people.

Seriously, are you mentally challenged?

[cabron]

...

From what I have seen and watched, democrats are against ID card or voting ID cards because it would be fairly difficult for people to get them and vote. In general, it would seem Republicans benefits when the voting population gets smaller, so it would make sense for them to make the voting population as shallow as possible so people of color, spanics and other minorities would have a toughter time having their voices heard.
It would be fairer if the government of the United States used biometry for them to authenticate the identity of their voters (only if the voters agrees on it), if fingerprints match, then it would be possible for the person to vote, otherwise gets rejected... however, there would still be people against it, because of the storage of biometric information.

Dems will not win if they use the biometry, they know people are fed up with this current administration, and Kamala being the nominee is just not going to make them win. They would have to use anything else to get the votes including those illegal immigrants.  Some of them afaik are registered to vote already.

Trump is already winning. Nothing will stop him from going to the white house again. But seeing this is dividing the people, the future was already predicted before things could happen. Trump is just not seeing that the US will be a big mess if he wins. But regardless of which party wins, it's very obvious already the economy is already in recession. Just bet for Trump to take advantage of this situation.

[famososMuertos]

:://::://:::

+1
Hey, I understand you, the social and political issue you mention, I think that we all want that in a certain way, fair elections and that the best person wins from the point of view of attitudes and aptitudes.

In my case, I am not on the social board,right?, therefore let's not fall into political passions and extra "sports" analysis, this is about bets, political analysis is necessary, but there is a very thin line between confusing it with personal appreciations for a bet.

[EarnOnVictor]

This is a serious allegation that I'm sure you can't prove, one of the misinformation we are preaching against on the internet. How could you even say that? Don't you know it's a huge indictment to any company doing that? Not to mention that so many of the owners of the most popular social media platforms are not in support of the Democratic party, especially Elon Musk who owns X and has unwavering support for Trump.

Musk started supporting Trump quite recently. But Twitter has remained fiercely neutral in this battle, unlike Google or Facebook. Twitter has never blocked any of the Democrats from posting their tweets and unlike the case with Google they never shadow ban anyone whom they don't like. And this is exactly the reason why I like Musk. This man has restored freedom of speech in social media. When Vijaya Gadde and Parag Agrawal were in power, they were doing all they can to suppress free speech. And then the Democrats were cheering for them.

Let's face the reality my friend, Musk is now biased, except that he can't do it using his platform to the point that people will now start complaining. His reason for unbanning Trump's account when he declared his support for him is a good one to prove this. Why didn't he do that long enough, his dislike for this current administration is the driving force. For me, he just used that advantage as the X wonder to do that, it would have been different with a neutral person, so don't say the guy is neutral.

It even seems you are being biased as well, I wonder why X will blatantly ban any Democratic party member with their responsible acts? Mention any of them who is as daring and insulting as Trump. To the point of inciting people to trample on the US democracy? As for the shadow banning, you are not not sincere, shadow banning of this concern is also happening on X, maybe you should do your findings.

[bitgolden]

Since you don't have good comprehension skills, I will explain again. Last census was conducted back in 2020. Then, Trump was in power and the number of illegal aliens was low. It is natural for California and New York to lose population, and for Texas and Florida to gain people. Because hard-working people usually flee from Democrat-run states, which are impacted by sky high crime rate and extremely high taxes. And in most cases, they flee towards Republican run states such as Texas and Florida.

Domestic migration in the US, by state (obviously excludes your illegals):

This is not nice, you should not make assumptions like that without showing your support, and not even from being USA to make that assumption and not living in those states. As someone who had a friend move from New York to Miami, I can tell you that they are moving to states that are republican, but to the cities that are still democrat. Texas has Austin, and Florida has Miami. The "main" reason (while I agree crime is of course high) is economy, because trump gave tax brakes to his buddies who are billionaires, and free money when he printed TRILLIONS, whereas poor people got shifted.

The extra moving in the last 4 years all have to do with the fact that Trump ruined middle class and made rich richer and covid made middle class have hard time finding a job. So it felt simpler to move from expensive states like New York and Cali, to poor states like Texas and Florida, it's that simple.

In Democrat run states, you can see people making insane amount of money, California is top 10 in GDP if it was a nation, and we all know how rich New Yorkers can be, not all but pretty rich at the top. So people who are not rich, couldn't handle it and went to republican run states because republican run states are just simply poor, exclude energy and taxes is a third world nation levels of income.

[Hispo]

....

What is your source of information to say Democrats have already registered illegal inmigrants to vote in the United States in the coming election? because of anyone has any information about it and actual proof of such a thing happening, it would be enough for get several people in the democrat party arrested and tried for breaking federal laws within the country. Needless to say having illegal aliens to vote in a presidential election is completely illegal and it would imply other crimes, like usupation of identity and forgery of official documents.
Besides, the United States economy does not seem to be going so bad, at least in the stock market, during the presidency of Joe Biden we continue to see records of the prices of the main blue chip stocks in that country, if there was a recession, aren't stock supposed to go down for a long period of time ?

[nelson4lov]

Guys, now that Joe Biden is out of the presidential race, do we have any confirmed info on what happens to already placed bets on Biden? I'd expect those to be refunded. I'm asking this in advance incase we get to see any more surprises with the current line up of candidates because Democrats can just switch candidate again if they feel like Kamala Harris won't generate enough traction to win it.

[wheelz1200]

Guys, now that Joe Biden is out of the presidential race, do we have any confirmed info on what happens to already placed bets on Biden? I'd expect those to be refunded. I'm asking this in advance incase we get to see any more surprises with the current line up of candidates because Democrats can just switch candidate again if they feel like Kamala Harris won't generate enough traction to win it.

No clue but I'd have to think that any bet on biden shoukd be refunded.  If you bet on the democratic party to win then I can see why they would not refund people because it insinuated that no matter who it is you are betting on the party rather than the person.  If you bet on biden specifically I'd be surprised as to what happens in terms of tlrefunds because there are tons of bets on him already.  Same with Trump, if the democratic party withdraws and changes then do.ypu thing that the betting houses will void the trump bets?  His withdraw definitely screwd things up.

[nelson4lov]

Guys, now that Joe Biden is out of the presidential race, do we have any confirmed info on what happens to already placed bets on Biden? I'd expect those to be refunded. I'm asking this in advance incase we get to see any more surprises with the current line up of candidates because Democrats can just switch candidate again if they feel like Kamala Harris won't generate enough traction to win it.

No clue but I'd have to think that any bet on biden shoukd be refunded.  If you bet on the democratic party to win then I can see why they would not refund people because it insinuated that no matter who it is you are betting on the party rather than the person.  If you bet on biden specifically I'd be surprised as to what happens in terms of tlrefunds because there are tons of bets on him already.  Same with Trump, if the democratic party withdraws and changes then do.ypu thing that the betting houses will void the trump bets?  His withdraw definitely screwd things up.

I guess I'd have to do a little more digging. I thought by now some bookies might have resolved the bets but seems that's not the case (yet). Refund should be the optimal case forward and just open new markets for Kamala. And yes, I second your opinion about setting the presidential race markets on parties rather than candidates since we can have multiple candidates for a single party over the course of presidential race / campaign period.

[STT]

The last President to step down from a 2nd attempt at re-election to President was Lyndon Johnson apparently.  I dont think the bookies were taking bets back then with any detail about refunds, we are lacking precedent in that possibility.

  It is very unlikely an outcome, ideally people would get their money back or be transferred onto a bet on the actual Democratic nomination which is now Harris.   It depends on how specific was that bet on the outcome, they may say zero till Election day results possibly.

Immediately following Kennedy's assassination, Johnson likely suffered a second heart attack.

The previous year, in 1967, he secretly commissioned an actuarial study that accurately predicted he would die at age 64.

Never read that before, he had alot of stress no doubt.

[jossiel]

Guys, now that Joe Biden is out of the presidential race, do we have any confirmed info on what happens to already placed bets on Biden? I'd expect those to be refunded. I'm asking this in advance incase we get to see any more surprises with the current line up of candidates because Democrats can just switch candidate again if they feel like Kamala Harris won't generate enough traction to win it.

No idea but it's fair for the casino to do a refund. Those that have bet for it might look at their casino accounts and check if the casino returned it to them.

They all have the powers to do it so, I guess that switching candidate should be the bettors discretion after they refund it and shouldn't happen automatically.

[SquallLeonhart]

Just do it by the tax records, if you can pay taxes then you should be allowed to apply for a vote with the priviso of all the normal requirements.   Special biometrics seems ridiculous to me when its not monetary and its already true you can be jailed for deliberate fraud.

   Any fraud outside of that simple test can be taken of but its not a hotly contested rule of law to break voting regulations really.  Iam aware you have to be registered as a citizen but who is really so desperate they want to lie and break the law, just a basic check of tax records over years should be enough the vast majority of the time.   More red tape is the last thing required, there's already enough records on people so might as well use it.

Imo, the biggest danger you have is people dont vote.   

Why not do it like all the other nations in the world and just give ID when someone is born? It's that simple, you are born, your parent takes your birth certificate that the hospital gives them, and they go to a government agency, show the paper, and get an ID for you, the moment you are born.

It's literally the simplest thing in the entire world, that way, if someone illegally comes to your nation, they can't possibly have that ID, because they weren't born there, and if they are legally there but not allowed to vote, they still don't have an ID, it's literally only two kinds of people, one is the people who are born there and the other is the people who become citizens there legally. That's it, literally the whole entire world does this, in Europe this has been established for like 100 years now.

To think that social security number or drivers license or whatever the hell they think would be good enough is the stupid part. That's what USA is basically all about, let's use pounds instead of kilo, let's use yards instead of meter, let's use social security number instead of a normal ID, they keep trying to make things more and more complicated, for absolutely no gain at all, and just downside. If they do it the way I am saying, they would not have any issues at all, plus add in a voting vacation on the vote day, which should be Sunday anyway, and make everyone have free holiday that day, then everyone would vote too, it's that simple.

[Hispo]

Guys, now that Joe Biden is out of the presidential race, do we have any confirmed info on what happens to already placed bets on Biden? I'd expect those to be refunded. I'm asking this in advance incase we get to see any more surprises with the current line up of candidates because Democrats can just switch candidate again if they feel like Kamala Harris won't generate enough traction to win it.

No idea but it's fair for the casino to do a refund. Those that have bet for it might look at their casino accounts and check if the casino returned it to them.
They all have the powers to do it so, I guess that switching candidate should be the bettors discretion after they refund it and shouldn't happen automatically.

I have mentioned before that I believe it is highly dependant on the terms and conditions of each casino or book we decide to stake out money on, to be honest. There will be casinos with enough liquidity and reputation so they will refund the money, since Joe Biden decided he is not suitable to seek for a re-election this year, while on the other hand, casinod with less liquidity and those who are shady could take advantage of this situation and try to pocket the money for their own, pointing out at their terms of service and saying those bettors who had s stake on Joe Biden that a candidate giving up their candidacy is considered to be a loss of their bet by default.
I did not have a stake on Joe, (I almost did, though) so I am not sure how casinos are dealing with the situation..

[stompix]

The current odds after Biden withdrew his candidacy are like 1.57 for Donald Trump and 2.35 for Kamala Harris.

Bets sliding

1.67 Donald Trump
2.1 Kamala Harris

As for crypto users who cheer for Trump Bitcointalk users really need to get out of their bubble:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1eig7il/donald_trump_planning_to_make_a_national_shitcoin/

The amount of crypto users (who don't get paid for 4 lines of spam quota) calling Trump an imbecile who doesn't; know how crypto works at all is telling a different story about those millions of votes.

[virasog]

Guys, now that Joe Biden is out of the presidential race, do we have any confirmed info on what happens to already placed bets on Biden? I'd expect those to be refunded. I'm asking this in advance incase we get to see any more surprises with the current line up of candidates because Democrats can just switch candidate again if they feel like Kamala Harris won't generate enough traction to win it.

No clue but I'd have to think that any bet on biden shoukd be refunded.  If you bet on the democratic party to win then I can see why they would not refund people because it insinuated that no matter who it is you are betting on the party rather than the person.  If you bet on biden specifically I'd be surprised as to what happens in terms of tlrefunds because there are tons of bets on him already.  Same with Trump, if the democratic party withdraws and changes then do.ypu thing that the betting houses will void the trump bets?  His withdraw definitely screwd things up.

In most of the gambling sites there were two bets, one was that you can bet on the president's name like Biden or Trump etc and the other one was you can bet on the party like the democratic party or republican party. This 2nd bet stays valid no matter who is representing the party but the bet made on the present name should be void and refunded.
If they want they can again place the bet on the new party leader or chose any other once they are refunded.
I place my bet on Donald Trump so that should remain valid  

[alani123]

Guys, now that Joe Biden is out of the presidential race, do we have any confirmed info on what happens to already placed bets on Biden? I'd expect those to be refunded. I'm asking this in advance incase we get to see any more surprises with the current line up of candidates because Democrats can just switch candidate again if they feel like Kamala Harris won't generate enough traction to win it.

No idea but it's fair for the casino to do a refund. Those that have bet for it might look at their casino accounts and check if the casino returned it to them.
They all have the powers to do it so, I guess that switching candidate should be the bettors discretion after they refund it and shouldn't happen automatically.

I have mentioned before that I believe it is highly dependant on the terms and conditions of each casino or book we decide to stake out money on, to be honest. There will be casinos with enough liquidity and reputation so they will refund the money, since Joe Biden decided he is not suitable to seek for a re-election this year, while on the other hand, casinod with less liquidity and those who are shady could take advantage of this situation and try to pocket the money for their own, pointing out at their terms of service and saying those bettors who had s stake on Joe Biden that a candidate giving up their candidacy is considered to be a loss of their bet by default.
I did not have a stake on Joe, (I almost did, though) so I am not sure how casinos are dealing with the situation..

Odds on crypto sites are provided by the same book maker. Even if a site calculates its own odds then if there are big differences there would be arbitrage and the odds close the differences pretty fast.

So I don't know if these odds are indicative of anything. People think Trump is going to win regardless of polls. Because aggregates still show he is ahead on average across polling, although democrats improved their percentages with Kamala.

But let's keep in mind that also the result isn't just the percentage. Hilary lost the presidency even though she won the popular vote for instance.

[jossiel]

Guys, now that Joe Biden is out of the presidential race, do we have any confirmed info on what happens to already placed bets on Biden? I'd expect those to be refunded. I'm asking this in advance incase we get to see any more surprises with the current line up of candidates because Democrats can just switch candidate again if they feel like Kamala Harris won't generate enough traction to win it.

No idea but it's fair for the casino to do a refund. Those that have bet for it might look at their casino accounts and check if the casino returned it to them.
They all have the powers to do it so, I guess that switching candidate should be the bettors discretion after they refund it and shouldn't happen automatically.

I have mentioned before that I believe it is highly dependant on the terms and conditions of each casino or book we decide to stake out money on, to be honest. There will be casinos with enough liquidity and reputation so they will refund the money, since Joe Biden decided he is not suitable to seek for a re-election this year, while on the other hand, casinod with less liquidity and those who are shady could take advantage of this situation and try to pocket the money for their own, pointing out at their terms of service and saying those bettors who had s stake on Joe Biden that a candidate giving up their candidacy is considered to be a loss of their bet by default.
I did not have a stake on Joe, (I almost did, though) so I am not sure how casinos are dealing with the situation..

Sadly, that can happen for those small time casinos and they cannot do a full refund anymore. They'd for sure gonna pocket the money and that's a sure lose to those bettors that have believed on Biden's reelection.

You're right that they can easily play on the terms and conditions that they have and they have no control over their users bets if they have ever got it wrong on Biden.

That's just truly sad.

[EarnOnVictor]

Just do it by the tax records, if you can pay taxes then you should be allowed to apply for a vote with the priviso of all the normal requirements.   Special biometrics seems ridiculous to me when its not monetary and its already true you can be jailed for deliberate fraud.  

Some issues will arise if the US follow your advice on voting and I do not see anything wrong in conducting the needed biometrics for the benefit of a fair election in this technological age. If developing countries are conducting it for such an electoral process, how much more is the US which many countries are behind them in technology?

And for the record, the US electoral system is very fair and unique and I wonder why tax records should only be the requirement to be eligible to vote. If it is done that way, mentally ill people, underage citizens, non-US citizens, and even convicts of some dangerous felonies will be eligible to vote. This is against not only the US law but also international laws.

[LUCKMCFLY]

:://::://:::

+1
Hey, I understand you, the social and political issue you mention, I think that we all want that in a certain way, fair elections and that the best person wins from the point of view of attitudes and aptitudes.

In my case, I am not on the social board,right?, therefore let's not fall into political passions and extra "sports" analysis, this is about bets, political analysis is necessary, but there is a very thin line between confusing it with personal appreciations for a bet.

That's right, I can say that the best things that Trump can Show politically is that he has a big Advantage, now, the markets are going down a lot, it is rumored that it is because of Kamala Harris's action, so in this aspect things can take a different approach, I could see that it is because of that action, I have not followed much of the things she has said or stated, but there is a certain level of mistrust and the bad thing is that it could affect the economic system , it is said that there could be a crash of the US Economic system.