Vandroiy
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Activity: 1036
Merit: 1002
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February 15, 2012, 06:32:02 PM |
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Hourly traders should still be short and sitting on a 26% unrealized profit.
lol It should have been bulls vs bears, but then the turtles came and ate the playground. Om nom nom.  Not that I actually joined the turtles. I'm a spider, or maybe a chameleon. I'm not mad though, it's totally fun to watch turtles eating sheep. |
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Otoh
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Activity: 3024
Merit: 1105
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February 15, 2012, 07:38:49 PM |
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having made about 30% on a single move & that at 2.5:1 or 5:1 = 75% or 150% then rather than being a pig headed slave to any system I take the chips off the table or at least in the 5:1 scenario I pocket my original stake & play high or low maybe at even greater leverage with what is now free money
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Otoh
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Activity: 3024
Merit: 1105
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February 15, 2012, 08:28:40 PM
Last edit: February 16, 2012, 01:13:18 AM by Otoh |
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indeed, in life too, every time I've been up 100% or more, especially if it's over a short time period, or made a substantial amount of money from a large investment moving even a relatively small amount in my favor and I didn't cash it out & take a breather then I've always regretted it & sometimes by letting it ride or doubling it up have blown the lot & more, it took many hard lessons to train myself that 100% or a good pay off is sweet & more though tempting is usually just greedy foolishness
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notme
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Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
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February 15, 2012, 10:23:52 PM |
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yep hourly, it's on the cusp atm, neck & neck  That is a rather predictable effect of a bunch o' traders adopting this strategy... Yep.. they called me crazy when I said that before, but I've seen it several times since and I'm convinced. |
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Goomboo (OP)
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February 16, 2012, 01:08:52 AM
Last edit: February 17, 2012, 03:41:27 AM by Goomboo |
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This trade is unusually successful - according to my chart (Bitcoin Charts), you should still be short and sitting on an unrealized profit of around 20%.
Regardless, stay disciplined and wait for the crossover before exiting.
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stochastic
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February 16, 2012, 02:27:25 AM |
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yep hourly, it's on the cusp atm, neck & neck That is a rather predictable effect of a bunch o' traders adopting this strategy... Yep.. they called me crazy when I said that before, but I've seen it several times since and I'm convinced. When enough people start trading this way I will use the EMA9/20 crossover. |
Introducing constraints to the economy only serves to limit what can be economical.
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notme
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Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
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February 16, 2012, 04:50:27 AM |
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yep hourly, it's on the cusp atm, neck & neck That is a rather predictable effect of a bunch o' traders adopting this strategy... Yep.. they called me crazy when I said that before, but I've seen it several times since and I'm convinced. When enough people start trading this way I will use the EMA9/20 crossover. One step ahead... |
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proudhon
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Activity: 2198
Merit: 1311
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February 17, 2012, 01:48:07 AM |
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 Wake up all you little Goomboos. |
Bitcoin Fact: the price of bitcoin will not be greater than $70k for more than 25 consecutive days at any point in the rest of recorded human history.
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ineededausername
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February 17, 2012, 02:13:57 AM |
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Wake up all you little Goomboos. The Couch Strategy is saying BUY BUY BUY! |
(BFL)^2 < 0
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Goomboo (OP)
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February 17, 2012, 03:43:12 AM |
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The hourly short trade should now be closed for a profit of around 20% x leverage employed.
You should now be long.
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M4v3R
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February 17, 2012, 09:44:30 AM |
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You should now be long.
and burned badly by doing this... |
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Crypt_Current
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February 17, 2012, 09:53:34 AM |
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You should now be long.
and burned badly by doing this... Yep... Not as badly as I was last night by a false long crossover (i'm using different numbers), so... count yourself lucky and get out fast and maybe wait a candle past the cross. |
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Otoh
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Activity: 3024
Merit: 1105
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February 17, 2012, 10:12:15 AM |
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M4v3R
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February 17, 2012, 12:02:25 PM |
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Told ya.
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stochastic
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February 17, 2012, 01:20:23 PM |
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Told ya.
I wonder what the backtesting would show if the opposite decision making was done: When the EMA10 crosses over the EMA21, sell. When the EMA21 crosses under the EMA10, buy. |
Introducing constraints to the economy only serves to limit what can be economical.
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RyNinDaCleM
Legendary
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Activity: 2408
Merit: 1009
Legen -wait for it- dary
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February 17, 2012, 01:44:39 PM |
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Told ya.
I wonder what the backtesting would show if the opposite decision making was done: When the EMA10 crosses over the EMA21, sell. When the EMA21 crosses under the EMA10, buy. Bad things! You would have been holding from $17, down to $2, and then sold. |
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Crypt_Current
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February 17, 2012, 01:47:41 PM |
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Told ya.
I wonder what the backtesting would show if the opposite decision making was done: When the EMA10 crosses over the EMA21, sell. When the EMA21 crosses under the EMA10, buy. Bad things! You would have been holding from $17, down to $2, and then sold. buy high, sell low |
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stochastic
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February 17, 2012, 01:49:48 PM |
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Told ya.
I wonder what the backtesting would show if the opposite decision making was done: When the EMA10 crosses over the EMA21, sell. When the EMA21 crosses under the EMA10, buy. Bad things! You would have been holding from $17, down to $2, and then sold. Even on the hourly data set? Backtesting using the large spike during the summer is pointless. You could randomly flip a coin to decide to buy or sell and would have won. |
Introducing constraints to the economy only serves to limit what can be economical.
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RyNinDaCleM
Legendary
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Activity: 2408
Merit: 1009
Legen -wait for it- dary
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February 17, 2012, 02:22:03 PM |
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Told ya.
I wonder what the backtesting would show if the opposite decision making was done: When the EMA10 crosses over the EMA21, sell. When the EMA21 crosses under the EMA10, buy. Bad things! You would have been holding from $17, down to $2, and then sold. Even on the hourly data set? Backtesting using the large spike during the summer is pointless. You could randomly flip a coin to decide to buy or sell and would have won. Absolutely! That is why I said $17 after the high. The fast EMA was below the slow EMA 90% of the time during the summer burst. Sure, there would have been a few opportunities, but I think the losses would have far outweighed any profits you would have seen. Think about false cross-overs! This is the daily (since I can't set it for hourly that far back). But, you can still see that you would have been holding a lot, and very little profit taking  You would have been short for the rise from $.50 to $32. You would have also been long from the middle of August through the end of October. |
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