rpietila Altcoin Observer

[AnonyMint]

About belief in God eliminating any concerns or need to take action, I am reminded of the story of God sending a rescue team to a guy stranded in a flood and he refused because he believed in God, then a boat, then a helicopter. I guess his destiny was directly to the afterlife. We have to live this life while we are here. We do the best we can to promote prosperity.

I was merely accentuating my point that I am not idolizing Bitcoin as the mountain that needs to be conquered. I believe we face a greater issue. Perhaps crypto-currency may play a more important role than we are currently aiming for. Or maybe it is irrelevant in the broader picture.

A better question would be, does Anonymint derive his conclusions from his possible biblical beliefs?

No. As the Bible says, I need two or three witnesses. So I look for other science, such as Armstrong's computer model.

...

P.S. those who think Armstrong's Socrates computer model is nonsense, look at this prediction it made in 1992 for the 2007 crash and ZIRP (negative real interest rates):

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/06/06/was-socrates-surprised-by-negative-rates/

[1714987044]

1714987044

[AnonyMint]

A biblical wisdom is don't mix the seed planted in the field, i.e. if you are going to do something, do it at sufficient scale to make it economically relevant.

Leviticus 19:19  Ye shall keep my statutes. Thou shalt not let thy cattle gender with a diverse kind: thou shalt not sow thy field with mingled seed: neither shall a garment mingled of linen and woollen come upon thee.

Wealth comes from producing more than you need, and trading your excess production to other men.

I grew up in Sacramento, and we had several fruit trees.  We had an apple tree, a plum tree, a lemon bush, a pomegranate tree, a peach tree, and a grape vine.  Each tree could produce more than a small family of four could eat.  But the excess was not really enough to go into business to trade to others in a reliable, profit making way.

The Bible says to plant a grove of trees, all of one kind--and not a grove of trees of different kinds.   This would require planning & specialization in order to trade away the excess to others, in order to reap the benefit of the harvest season.

[iCEBREAKER]

Risto, mswing from the silver forum we used to belong to is calling for Revelation to begin 2019.

I don't need to base my concern only on the Biblical, as I see Armstrong's computer model is so correlated, and Armstrong's A.I. computer model predicted at at 1990s conference everything that has transpired since.

The sober, factual quality of this thread declines.

Let's discuss Altcoin Observations, not AnonyMint's Bible Code WebBot lunacy nor DTS's butthurt over my profiting from his naivete regarding ACTM.

XCN up 88% in relatively heavy trading...
XMR up 6%, with volume now exceeding BitScamDark!

[devphp]

Matthew 24:23-27

Then if anyone says to you, ‘Look, here is the Christ!’ or ‘There he is!’ do not believe it. For false christs and false prophets will arise and perform great signs and wonders, so as to lead astray, if possible, even the elect. See, I have told you beforehand. So, if they say to you, ‘Look, he is in the wilderness,’ do not go out. If they say, ‘Look, he is in the inner rooms,’ do not believe it. For as the lightning comes from the east and shines as far as the west, so will be the coming of the Son of Man.

Matthew 24:36

"But of that day and hour no one knows, not even the angels of heaven, nor the Son, but the Father alone. "For the coming of the Son of Man will be just like the days of Noah."


that's for reference to someone's claims that they know when the end of the world should arrive based on the Bible, you should immediately know they have no clue what they are talking about

[smooth]

It is hard to see any coin other than Monero in a credible position to replace LTC.

Anonymity != network effects

I don't even base this statement on anonymity necessarily.

Look on the list of candidates. I see no other credible players. Maybe Ethereum at some point, but not yet.

This does not include unknown and/or incomplete and/or unreleased coins. You never know what the future holds. I'm commented on the present playing field, but not ignoring the future.

[iCEBREAKER]

Matthew 24:23-27

Then if anyone says to you, ‘Look, here is the Christ!’ or ‘There he is!’ do not believe it. For false christs and false prophets will arise and perform great signs and wonders, so as to lead astray, if possible, even the elect. See, I have told you beforehand. So, if they say to you, ‘Look, he is in the wilderness,’ do not go out. If they say, ‘Look, he is in the inner rooms,’ do not believe it. For as the lightning comes from the east and shines as far as the west, so will be the coming of the Son of Man.

Matthew 24:36

"But of that day and hour no one knows, not even the angels of heaven, nor the Son, but the Father alone. "For the coming of the Son of Man will be just like the days of Noah."


that's for reference to someone's claims that they know when the end of the world should arrive based on the Bible, you should immediately know they have no clue what they are talking about

AnonyMint isn't just having faith in the Bible (like it says you should in the instructions).  He's also basing our immanent eschaton on a highly-regarded, unfalsifiable source known as Armstrong's Bible Code Nutjob Emulator.  This program is so advanced it can accurately produce numerological nuttery indistinguishable from actual persons of mental imbalance!  That's why you should never mix acrylic with rayon after Easter, don'tcha know!   

[Brilliantrocket]

Sorry that I even mentioned it. Hopefully the thread doesn't devolve into a religious debate.

[AnonyMint]

This thread's owner (Risto) is religious. The Bible contains specific numeric predictions. However they are stated in a way that there are numerous possibilities that could match. So it can't be a predictor by itself.

As for factual quality, Armstrong's computer predicted in 1992 all those events that transpired since. I have watched his computer continue to predict everything accurately.

As for no one can predict the timing of Jesus's return (of course I'm aware of that verse) that is orthogonal to the fact that Armstrong is predicting major events correctly for the past 2 decades.

As for the applicability to crypto-currency, I think I already explained that I provided this as justification for why we need to "aim big or go home". My point was to introduce some urgency.

[AnonyMint]

He's also basing our immanent eschaton on a highly-regarded, unfalsifiable source known as Armstrong's Bible Code Nutjob Emulator.  This program is so advanced it can accurately produce numerological nuttery indistinguishable from actual persons of mental imbalance!

If you had any clue, you would know his A.I. is not based on numerology.

Rather it is based on inputting into an A.I. training model, all the data from the history of the world. He claims the largest database that has ever been compiled. He claims he spent $10 million alone just collecting all the archaeological data to produce an accurate silver chart for the Roman empire. He had researchers comb every major newspaper archive, etc.. He input not only price data, but also events such as weather, wars, etc..

The A.I. model discovered cyclical patterns in nature.

[smooth]

It is hard to see any coin other than Monero in a credible position to replace LTC.

This is nonsense.  Litecoin is a BTC fork; Monero isn't.  Monero is for private transactions, Litecoin for public.  Their use cases don't have much overlap.  Maybe you just meant "replace" in terms of 2nd position by market cap.

I explained this earlier. I meant replace in the sense that LTC gets essentially all of its support from being "not Bitcoin." But something else that is "not Bitcoin" in a deeper sense of sharing fewer of its potential flaws is a better alternative and can replace LTC.

The only reason LTC has made it as far as it has in serving this "2nd to Bitcoin" niche is that the alternatives were atrociously worse. There have been few if any legitimately innovative altcoins. It has all been a sea of scams and clones until Monero. It is no coincidence that rpietila's first altcoin buy was Monero. There was really nothing worth buying before.

I actually agree that XCN could possible replace LTC in the "2nd to Bitcoin" niche. That and XMR are the two candidates I see now. I think scaling is likely addressed to a large extent if not entirely by Moore's Law, and I do think that privacy is a feature that gives some incremental support so I give the edge to XMR. It is also objectively ahead of XCN in terms of market cap, liquidity, and recognition by trend setters. Those all matter. Neverthless XCN could still make it.

I don't see any of these replacing BTC unless BTC shoots itself in the foot (or the head), but I also think that could happen.

[AnonyMint]

Apparently the only thing LTC offered was GPU mining. As that goes with scrypt ASICs, apparently so goes LTC.

So in that respect, I agree Monero and XCN appear most poised to fill that position of weakness (beating a dying competitor isn't that impressive). GPU miners might prefer not having to compete with botnets, so XCN might win that position. And ASICs would follow for XCN.

Anonymity seems to have nothing to do with it.

This is a crucially important point because my opinion is that if you want to scale CPU-only (away from botnets and rented hardware), you need a broader distribution strategy than Monero has.

P.S. I want anonymity. But I don't think it is enough to drive anything by itself. Anonymity in a coin that could scale very fast, would make me very excited.

[smooth]

Apparently the only thing LTC offered was GPU mining. As that goes with scrypt ASICs, apparently so goes LTC.

So in that respect, I agree Monero and XCN appear most poised to fill that position of weakness. GPU miners might prefer not having to compete with botnets, so XCN might win that position.

Anonymity seems to have nothing to do with it.

This is a crucially important point because my opinion is that if you want to scale CPU-only, you need a better distribution strategy than Monero has.

I know we disagree about the relevance of botnets so I won't belabor that point.

I will also state (and we probably disagree about this too), that miners only matter to the distribution and success of a coin (at least up to the scale of LTC) until the coin achieves good liquidity and tradability. This took a long time for Bitcoin, a shorter time for LTC and an even shorter time for XMR. Once you get to that point, miners become part of the plumbing and no longer matter much to the coin at large. Crypto-to-crypto markets are largely frictionless, and people who want the coin can just buy it while miners who don't want it can just sell it. Specialization and trade make an economy stronger, not weaker.

Also, in a 1000 shitcoin crypto space, miners just end up seeking out the most profitable coins to mine and don't really give a shit what they are mining. There is little buy in and building of enthusiast communities the way there was in the earlier days of crypto. Sometimes this gets automated with switching pools and miners don't even know what they are mining, much less care.

Beyond the scale of replacing LTC, we probably agree more about the role of mining. That's another discussion though.

[aminorex]

Matthew 24:23-27

Then if anyone says to you, ‘Look, here is the Christ!’ or ‘There he is!’ do not believe it. For false christs and false prophets will arise and perform great signs and wonders, so as to lead astray, if possible, even the elect. See, I have told you beforehand. So, if they say to you, ‘Look, he is in the wilderness,’ do not go out. If they say, ‘Look, he is in the inner rooms,’ do not believe it. For as the lightning comes from the east and shines as far as the west, so will be the coming of the Son of Man.

Matthew 24:36

"But of that day and hour no one knows, not even the angels of heaven, nor the Son, but the Father alone. "For the coming of the Son of Man will be just like the days of Noah."


that's for reference to someone's claims that they know when the end of the world should arrive based on the Bible, you should immediately know they have no clue what they are talking about

Eisegesis.  Note that in the days of Noah, certain persons were well prepared for coming events and timed them quite adequately for planning purposes.  Not knowing the day is compatible with knowing the year and season.  The text also encourages the faithful to attend carefully to the signs and to be prepared.

Isaac Newton put it between 2024 and 2065, variously.

[aminorex]

The capital that is going to try to hide from the coming G20 capital controls and wealth hunt will arguably not buy into an altcoin that is not reasonably mainstream.

Things enter and leave the "mainstream".  Being esoteric is not an insurmountable impediment - usability is just a software feature. Inadequate liquidity is a very vexing impediment, but definitely surmountable in principle.  XMR has accomplished in 2 1/2 months what took BTC 2 1/2 years to accomplish, so it is further along that road than any serious alternative, and has marvelous momentum.  I expect dark markets to pick it up in 3-4 months and for it to become dominant in 6.  On the strength of that adoption it should gain  about 20x in market cap, surpassing LTC within a year.  Once you can transmit 1mm EUR with 10 basis slippage or less reliably ( whether by liquidity or by  use of derivatives is moot ) then things start to get interesting. 

[drawingthesun]

The capital that is going to try to hide from the coming G20 capital controls and wealth hunt will arguably not buy into an altcoin that is not reasonably mainstream.

Then where will they go Anonymint? Please tell me where they will hide? Gold? Bitcoins? Paypal?

If there is no other alternative...

And if there is an alternative, I'm sure the Monero team will react, instead of sit like fat ducks, akin to the Bitcoin development team.

[fluffypony]

Where can I learn more about this? I am unfamiliar, at least how your described it.

Which part - stealth addresses, or a blockchain rollover? There isn't much on the second bit, it's just something that's been discussed in and around.

Any examples?

Sure, multisig is the most obvious one. Bitcoin Core doesn't know anything about multisig, and doesn't have the capability to handle multisig in and of itself. But it processes and mines multisig transactions no problem, because they comply with the scripting system.

[iCEBREAKER]

Eisegesis.  Note that in the days of Noah, certain persons were well prepared for coming events and timed them quite adequately for planning purposes.  Not knowing the day is compatible with knowing the year and season.  The text also encourages the faithful to attend carefully to the signs and to be prepared.

Isaac Newton put it between 2024 and 2065, variously.

Or the Singularity already happened.  Probably last Sunday morning, when you slept in.  Now we are all living in a computer simulation at the infinitely-prolonged end of the universe.  For some inexplicable reason, this computer sees fit to insult our intelligence at every opportunity.  

XCN and XMR are stabilizing, looks like the rally is out of fuel for now.

[rpietila]

Eisegesis.  Note that in the days of Noah, certain persons were well prepared for coming events and timed them quite adequately for planning purposes.  Not knowing the day is compatible with knowing the year and season.  The text also encourages the faithful to attend carefully to the signs and to be prepared.

Isaac Newton put it between 2024 and 2065, variously.

(Note to others: Newton lived between 1642-1727)

World-changing events tend to happen in certain timescales, and the time is typically not as short as days or weeks, but also not as long as decades or centuries. I would say Jesus' public ministry of 3.5 years is an example of this. The culminating events of crucifixion, death, burial and resurrection happened in a matter of days, but the whole thing prior to this was very public and noted by the Jew authorities in their private meetings by: "what can we do? the whole world is running after this man  ", also by Emmaus' road discussion regarding Jesus' death: "you must be the only stranger in Jerusalem who does not know what has happened!"

I am quite confident that the western "civilization" is the cancer described in the Bible as "kosmos", translated "world", the suffocating systematized institution of human life, and ultimately death, when they have enslaved everybody and can freely start killing people with no fear of human intervention.

The tipping point is near. The world economy is horribly mismanaged, up to 95% of people are doing nonproductive work (productive work is such that would still be done even when people like me are in control, or that you as a private person would contract someone to do - everything else is up to 99% just waste that is produced to keep people busy from realizing their wretched condition).

There is no choice for the banks and the subservient governments. They stop the credit expansion now - it collapses. They postpone it one more year - it collapses that much harder. They try to keep people from realizing what's going on. But the realization is one way: you take the red pill, there is no turning back. Many people are taking it every day. When the collapse and the tribulations come, much more people will be taking it.

The Bible says that many will not take it, preferring to stay with their masters that are going to Hell. I don't know why some people are so stupid, but I cannot change this unpleasant part of the truth, any more than I can change other hard-to-swallow things.

Judging from the speed that the bankers, with U.S. federal apparatus as their main strongarm, are trying to eliminate all liberty from this world, I also would venture to guess that we are already living the times of Revelation, with the change of age happening in less than 30 years.

[SlipperySlope]

Here is a weekly chart of litecoin that clearly illustrates that unlike bitcoin, it has not broken the long term downtrend from the November 2013 bubble. This chart reminds me of the great bitcoin bubble of June 2011 and its aftermath - a drop of about 10x.

[rpietila]

This is not a monero speculating thread, but I am very interested to watch the price action in Poloniex. The chances of a capitulation below 0.00334 have been eradicated overnight, so the buyers are looking at a double bottom, with very little asks below 0.004.

The ship is turning, but the turn will be slow. After such downtrend, there is no urge to panic, and when the urge develops, we are already that much higher that the inflation and speculator selling will smoothen the way.

I <3 XMR!