rpietila Altcoin Observer

[sonoIO]

To move the discussion from another thread. Even if POS algo is 100% secure until no one has at any point in time (present or past - present is enough for this consideration) 51% of coins, and if initially "fairly" distributed (e.g. with looong and "fair" POW) i don't thing that POS coin can be secure in the long run.

Let me give an illustrative example. Let POS phase start with power law distributed coin, i'll assume that security experts are in top of distribution - having on average more coins than an average Joe. It will soon (i think) become clear why this assumption will be satisfied sooner or later. Average Joe can be hacked more easily, and on average he is. Contrary to security experts which do it efficiently for themselves, now average Joe has to pay someone to secure his hot wallet (or converge to centralized solution) or take his wallet offline. Consequently, ppl less knowledgeable on the subject will stop having their coins in their hot wallets, on the average. So majority of coins will tend to just small group of ppl, on the average. Now i'll stop here, just wanted to give a possible trend of all pure POSs - and it is not unconditionally stable.

I argue that security experts will use recourses for staking several orders of magnitude more efficiently than an average Joe, so to Joe it becomes relatively expensive to stake. And this is not something that can (easily) happen with POW, as seems that POW gives much flatter playground. Consequentially, probability is that ppl will get relatively easily FUDed out of (even secure) POS coins - which just perpetuates this unstable process. And offc, i could be wrong

[1714622290]

1714622290

[1714622290]

1714622290

[1714622290]

1714622290

[drawingthemoon]

Anyone care to review KeyCoin ??

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=695457.0

Only 1,000,000 coins
POS
22 member Dev Team
See Dan MetCalf's comments viz a viz KeyCoin's autonomous solution
( Which is fully functional atm )

Lots of cheerleaders as the price runup has been substantial in the past week ..
Just interested in opinions if there is anything there or just a well orchestrated P&D ..
See the OP and posts #1664 and #1795 for the main features ..

Triff ..

I'd be worried of this novacoin(?) fork: https://bitbucket.org/keycoin/keycoin/commits/all

4 commits for a readme
2 for dns
2 for fork

All within the first two days of launch, nothing since then. 1 branch, 1 watcher .. yet 22(?) people on the team. Do they only have one or two coders? It's been two busy weeks now, surely a few of them could have at least followed it?

I wonder if this anonymous checkmark thing they talk about for sending anon tx's is literally just something to click?

Perfectly orchestrated Pump and Dump via feedback from shady developers who deleted their own altcoin github sources back in the day (XC). Another developer from XC was pumping Cachecoin a few weeks ago. This whole scene thing with "XC" wreaks of manipulation, malice and heck of lot of red-tape and corruption. Apparently the premine was used to "hire" other people in the team, who were later announced on a day where they did another pump and dump as the announcements came in of some guys who said they will integrate this altcoin in ATM.

You can also see some BTC-E trolls pumping KeyCoin at the moment. Same familiar faces. Everyone knows this too, they are just in it for doubling/tripling their BTC holdings and leave a lot of new forum members/crypto newbies bagholding who will inadvertently later on create threads about how awesome KeyCoin is and pollute other coin threads with their incessant shilling, while the puppet/pump masters are gone and onto the next anon coin. Same story over and over.

I think XC is the first such coin, along a now growing list of anon wannabe coins.

[Queeq]

Another developer from XC was pumping Cachecoin a few weeks ago. This whole scene thing with "XC" wreaks of manipulation, malice and heck of lot of red-tape and corruption. Apparently the premine was used to "hire" other people in the team, who were later announced on a day where they did another pump and dump as the announcements came in of some guys who said they will integrate this altcoin in ATM.

Links, please.

[drawingthemoon]

Links, please.

No, Thank You.

[aminorex]

Jed McCaleb stealth venture "Stellar" outed today.  Open Ripple clone.  Giving away 5000 of 1e11 stellar for your facebook login.  Bearish for Ripple.  (What isn't?)

[lebing]

Jed McCaleb stealth venture "Stellar" outed today.  Open Ripple clone.  Giving away 5000 of 1e11 stellar for your facebook login.  Bearish for Ripple.  (What isn't?)

also backed and funded by stripe... that might end up being quite interesting - especially as a complement to bitcoin.

[r0ach]

What if I told you Ted Kaczynski was right, and everyone developing coins right now is doing freelance charity work to help debug the coming one world currency control grid, which could be accomplished as easily as making each member of the UN a DPOS delegate.

[smooth]

Any thoughts on XCN (so called mini-blockchain implementation)? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=713538

I just computed that the current price implies 22+ BTC inflow per day. I'd also add that the fully-mined market cap is 119600 BTC, which is close to a hundred million dollars.

That seems way out of line to me given the current state of the project.

[nakaone]

Any thoughts on XCN (so called mini-blockchain implementation)? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=713538

I just computed that the current price implies 22+ BTC inflow per day. I'd also add that the fully-mined market cap is 119600 BTC, which is close to a hundred million dollars.

That seems way out of line to me given the current state of the project.

interesting project - as far as I understand this has the potential to scale in a much better way than the current blockchains are doing.

I would like to discuss an economic issue you are referring to, which is somewhat complicated: afaik the fully mined market cap of this currency will not be reached in any foreeseable future (>20 years), but you try to value it in the current state of development. I think it is totally clear that this project in the current condition is not worth 119600 btc. but does this make sense? I think we can savely assume that if xcn somehow survives, the system is much further developed once it is fully mined (in 20 years) as it is now. the methodology of "valueing" very young projects with the final market cap is somehow semi-elegant. does anyone have a more elegant solution for this? probably to make it more clear: assume a new chain is started which reaches its market cap in ~5000 years and the emmission is brutally slow - it does not make sense to use this parameter does it?

[smooth]

Any thoughts on XCN (so called mini-blockchain implementation)? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=713538

I just computed that the current price implies 22+ BTC inflow per day. I'd also add that the fully-mined market cap is 119600 BTC, which is close to a hundred million dollars.

That seems way out of line to me given the current state of the project.

interesting project - as far as I understand this has the potential to scale in a much better way than the current blockchains are doing.

I would like to discuss an economic issue you are referring to, which is somewhat complicated: afaik the fully mined market cap of this currency will not be reached in any foreeseable future (>20 years), but you try to value it in the current state of development. I think it is totally clear that this project in the current condition is not worth 119600 btc. but does this make sense? I think we can savely assume that if xcn somehow survives, the system is much further developed once it is fully mined (in 20 years) as it is now. the methodology of "valueing" very young projects with the final market cap is somehow semi-elegant. does anyone have a more elegant solution for this? probably to make it more clear: assume a new chain is started which reaches its market cap in ~5000 years and the emmission is brutally slow - it does not make sense to use this parameter does it?

The very long tail into the future is only a small factor though. Say in 5 years it will be 25% mined, so that's $25 million dollars even if you ignore the future. That's still pretty big given the current state.

[nakaone]

my problem is that it is, in my opion, not possible to take the current development state as an indicator for a market cap in a far away distant future (even 1 year, 5 years or 20 years)

the obvious simple solution is that you have to price in the development of the project until that point in the future is reached and you have to add the potential/niche of the coin. it is more a general problem than a specific one of xcn.

maybe the most elegant solution is the simplest one: which amount of btc inflow per day at current prices is needed to keep the price stable, that is probably also the reason why I asked for that in the xcn thread 

[Majormax]

Any thoughts on XCN (so called mini-blockchain implementation)? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=713538

I just computed that the current price implies 22+ BTC inflow per day. I'd also add that the fully-mined market cap is 119600 BTC, which is close to a hundred million dollars.

That seems way out of line to me given the current state of the project.

interesting project - as far as I understand this has the potential to scale in a much better way than the current blockchains are doing.

I would like to discuss an economic issue you are referring to, which is somewhat complicated: afaik the fully mined market cap of this currency will not be reached in any foreeseable future (>20 years), but you try to value it in the current state of development. I think it is totally clear that this project in the current condition is not worth 119600 btc. but does this make sense? I think we can savely assume that if xcn somehow survives, the system is much further developed once it is fully mined (in 20 years) as it is now. the methodology of "valueing" very young projects with the final market cap is somehow semi-elegant. does anyone have a more elegant solution for this? probably to make it more clear: assume a new chain is started which reaches its market cap in ~5000 years and the emmission is brutally slow - it does not make sense to use this parameter does it?

The very long tail into the future is only a small factor though. Say in 5 years it will be 25% mined, so that's $25 million dollars even if you ignore the future. That's still pretty big given the current state.

Not really. 5 years timescale is huge in altcoin terms. Even 2 years ago there were hardly any alternatives to BTC.  70% of the top 20 coins ( most over $5m) are a matter of months, rather than years old.

[smooth]

Not really. 5 years timescale is huge in altcoin terms. Even 2 years ago there were hardly any alternatives to BTC.  70% of the top 20 coins ( most over $5m) are a matter of months, rather than years old.

Exactly. This could could entirely disappear well before 5 years.

That doesn't mean it will necessarily be worth $25M then, it just means what it will be worth given no change in price in the next five years.

If the coin is successful then sure it could easily be worth $25M -- or more -- but that would have to include the price going up.

Does this coin have say a 10% chance to be worth $250 million (or $1 billion fully mined) in five years? I don't think so. Not yet.

[smooth]

maybe the most elegant solution is the simplest one: which amount of btc inflow per day at current prices is needed to keep the price stable, that is probably also the reason why I asked for that in the xcn thread 

Okay but then you have decide how much BTC you think is going to flow in. I happen to think 22 BTC/day is a lot.

[MasterMined710]

great thread guys. love seeing the back and forth between AnonyMint and the cryptonote folks.

i was hoping y'all could take a look at bitshares x (titan) and give some opinions.
they are the second most popular anon coin out right now with a  $20,300,317 market cap. they seem to solve the visa level scalability issues that keeps getting brought up as well as solving a lot of the problems with pos with their new dpos.

Delegated Proof of Stake - Let's Talk Bitcoin Episode 129
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdBpoRLmrbA&list=WL#t=726

http://wiki.bitshares.org/index.php/TITAN
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDvXZMQNnhE

[othe]

Bitshares is in no way anonymous, they simply use stealth addresses which has absolutely no effect on blockchain analysis.

[rpietila]

maybe the most elegant solution is the simplest one: which amount of btc inflow per day at current prices is needed to keep the price stable, that is probably also the reason why I asked for that in the xcn thread 

I am also in favor of the daily inflation method. This puts XMR at 2.5% of BTC, which is huge.

[synechist]

Anyone care to review KeyCoin ??

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=695457.0

Only 1,000,000 coins
POS
22 member Dev Team
See Dan MetCalf's comments viz a viz KeyCoin's autonomous solution
( Which is fully functional atm )

Lots of cheerleaders as the price runup has been substantial in the past week ..
Just interested in opinions if there is anything there or just a well orchestrated P&D ..
See the OP and posts #1664 and #1795 for the main features ..

Triff ..

This one is pretty controversial.

From the one side, Dan Metcalf (XCurrency dev, if someone doesn't know) said a lot of good things about it.

From another side, they took XC's rev.1 code and built upon it a new coin, however failing to acknowledge this. At least in the opening post. I saw someone claimed they avoid this in their further posts as well, haven't checked myself.

I can confirm that KeyCoin uses XC's Rev 1 mixer. It is a non-trustless mixer and, for XC, is last-gen tech.

XC made its code open-source as per its stance on open sourcing code:


Q:  Is XCopen sourced? 

A:  XC is committed to the open source model. Open source code is vital for the health and advancement of cryptographic technologies, and it is a privilege to share our technical breakthroughs with a community such as this. We believe that XC's code embodies several world-firsts enabling anonymity that is scalable, mobile-friendly, POS-integrated, and is ultimately a platform upon which a broad range of Blockchain 2.0 technologies will be built.

However people’s faith in cryptocurrency projects is significantly hindered by clones. Therefore we believe that the ethical way to engage with the community is to make our code available on a delayed timeline. This way, the community will still benefit from our work, while we'd reduce the incentive for developers to flood the marketplace with clones that lack a long term future and reduce the trustworthiness of the altcoin phenomenon. XC represents several market-leading innovations, and we are honoured to make these available to the community in the near future.

[SushiChef]

[Some early fud about Dan being part of a pumpgroup]

You are the perfect example of a newbie fish.

- XC had 2 mayor pumps in his existence orchestrerend by 2 different party's. Non had Dan involved.

Ill update this post with referral links that contain proof to this once I get home

[synechist]

Perfectly orchestrated Pump and Dump via feedback from shady developers who deleted their own altcoin github sources back in the day (XC). Another developer from XC was pumping Cachecoin a few weeks ago. This whole scene thing with "XC" wreaks of manipulation, malice and heck of lot of red-tape and corruption. Apparently the premine was used to "hire" other people in the team, who were later announced on a day where they did another pump and dump as the announcements came in of some guys who said they will integrate this altcoin in ATM.

You can also see some BTC-E trolls pumping KeyCoin at the moment. Same familiar faces. Everyone knows this too, they are just in it for doubling/tripling their BTC holdings and leave a lot of new forum members/crypto newbies bagholding who will inadvertently later on create threads about how awesome KeyCoin is and pollute other coin threads with their incessant shilling, while the puppet/pump masters are gone and onto the next anon coin. Same story over and over.

I think XC is the first such coin, along a now growing list of anon wannabe coins.

You refer to old and discredited FUD about XC.

- XC does not use Github for development. Dan temporarily put some early XC code into Github to refute FUD-claims that it was a Fedora clone. The code was subjected to peer review, clearing the allegations, and then deleted.

- XC open-sources its code on a delayed timeline. Recently XC released its Rev 1 mixer.

- XC's Team have made their identities public and thus put their reputations at stake. If you think they're shady, you'll need to substantiate your view, because the evidence here is to the contrary.

- Cachecoin is a project of Jasinlee's, and Jasin is an XC developer. Cachecoin is in active development, none of the premine has been dumped there is no premine, and its future concerns PoBC, which is part of how XC will run on mobile phones.

- XC's ATM integration is not related to hiring anyone. The first two members of the incipient XC Foundation are involved in ATMs. As they're Foundation members they're not being paid. So that part of your statement is ill-informed conjecture.

- XC's premine is necessary to fund sustained development. You're welcome to disagree, but I fail to see how it constitutes something suspicious.
    (a) It can't be spent unaccountably, since people are always watching it.
    (b) It's more candid than an instamine and
    (c) it doesn't require taking other people's money upfront like an IPO.
    I'm open to discussion on this last point, but I don't think that it can be used to substantiate claims of XC being suspicious without substantial further argument as to why this might be the case.

- Lastly I cannot comment on KeyCoin's legitimacy, other than to note my public annoyance at their frequent omission of the fact that they're using last-gen XC tech.