nrd525 Market Tracker

[exstasie]

I bought 0.7 BTC at around $31500.  Now let's see if it dumps to 20k...

Masterluc thinks so:



He was right about the bounce to the 20-day MA. Now let's see if he's right about the dump to $20K!

My other favorite analyst is feeling bearish too:

Here's a look at the Weekly Time Frame:

He's looking for a dump to the 20-week MA, currently at $20,500 and rising. Scary times!

[TheQuin]

My other favorite analyst is feeling bearish too:

Here's a look at the Weekly Time Frame:

~

He's looking for a dump to the 20-week MA, currently at $20,500 and rising. Scary times!

A pro futures trader taught me that after a large breakout you should use the breakout point for the anchor of the fib retracement.



If it says above the 61,8% $28,324 then the 23.6% extension at $47,179 is the next upside target. If that fails (goes below the 61.8%) then look for the next retrace using the low of the last cycle.

[nrd525]

Bought another 0.2 btc at around 31k.

[nrd525]

It's interesting that Crypto Mitch on YouTube is probably making 100k/month on Patreon (unless he is faking the numbers/giving discounts).  And that isn't including all the superchat donations. 

How much are the other analysts making from not trading?

[nrd525]

If meme investing in stocks becomes a real thing (so far Gamestop and who else?), Dogecoin might be a good investment =)  Though it has already pumped once this year.

(I'm completely out of Doge and don't plan to get back in).

[exstasie]

If meme investing in stocks becomes a real thing (so far Gamestop and who else?), Dogecoin might be a good investment =)  Though it has already pumped once this year.

(I'm completely out of Doge and don't plan to get back in).

If you've got strong hands, DOGE is usually a good investment. Just remember to sell for BTC during the pump!

I'm afraid to say with any real confidence, but looking across various ALT/BTC charts, we might be on the cusp of an altcoin season similar to March-May 2017. The pump to 40 satoshis may have just been the first leg up, like the pump to 60 satoshis in April 2017.

[nrd525]

How about that 200% Doge pump in the past 24 hours?

[exstasie]

How about that 200% Doge pump in the past 24 hours?

Just up a casual 340% against BTC. Nothing to see here!

Too bad I wasn't actually holding much, as much as I always like to hype up DOGE. Honestly, when I said the move to 40 sats was the first leg up, I didn't expect the next leg to be nearly this big.

Hey r/wallstreetsbets, can you pump some of my other bags please?!

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/01/wallstreetsbets-craze-pushes-dogecoin-up-5x-in-24-hours/

[nrd525]

Bought 18k Doge at 5.5 cents. Sold at 8.5 cents!

I might not have bought if I knew that wallstreetbets has rules banning discussion of cryptocurrency.

[nrd525]

Doge fell to 2.3 cents, but recovered to 8.7 and is holding at 8 cents as Elon Musk, Snoop Doge, and other celebrities get behind it.  It now has a triple top at 8.6-8.7.

Tesla announces they bought $1.5 billion of bitcoin!!! Was Musk just trying to distract everyone? Or was he just being silly?  I'm thinking the latter.  Bitcoin new ATH $44,777 on BFX (more repeating digits - remember when I guessed that 44,444 would be resistance).

I'm very surprised that Doge is holding its level.  I guess there is unlimited pump potential on social media.  If Musk were to buy just $100 of Doge, it'd probably pump to 10 cents.

US stock market at new high too.

Are there any legitimate/reviewed covid 19 vaccines on the dark web (or even just the regular web, sold for crypto)?  I'm curious as I know the vaccines are cheap to make (often $10/dose).  Though I wouldn't trust it unless there were a TON of reviews (and you'd have to trust the review system...).  Also transportation is a big deal...

Interestingly, I think the crypto boom market is increasing the time cost value of money which is making Safe Bets on Biden being president on March 1, and Trump not being president on March 31 at Polymarket pay more than they otherwise would (4% and 6% before fees, 2% and 4% after fees).  By contrast, the returns on Safe Bets on PredictIt aren't as great (closer to 1%/month).

If you live in CA, please sign the petition to recall Newsom!  I've got a bet on it getting enough signatures =)

[nrd525]

When Bitcoin hangs out at 47k for a couple days after hitting a new ATH, it's bullish.

Bitcoin search trends still below 2017.

Doge is also kind of bullish hanging out at near 7 cents.

I'm not sure what will pop this bubble as the stock market keeps going up too.  Maybe some US regulation of stable coins?  But I expect any regulation wouldn't be overly burdensome (and might even improve adoption by institutions in the long term).

I'd expect this to end in a blow off top. So up 25-35% in a single day, and then down 30% in the next.  We haven't come close to seeing anything like that.  The dump from 42k to 30k was several times too slow.

So I'm thinking 65k-190k...  Though I'm not buying in again (probably) =)

[nrd525]

2.5 hours of resistance to break 55k.  Much wow.

[StreakW]

Wow, you like crypto fortune teller 

I see many statements of your thread come true, you have so good knowledge to read the market situation. Do you think when the best time to sell Bitcoin and altcoins before fall like in 2017?

[nrd525]

I have no idea whether selling is a good idea. I'm trying out not selling, but partially I am heavily influenced by wanting to wait until I can pay the long term capital gains tax rate (US rules).  So I need to hold for one year, and my oldest coins are from September or October.  I'm also trying to hold until the top, or more accurately after the top.

I'm guessing we'll have a blow-off top and those can sometimes be recognized after the fact (see my prediction in late Dec 2017 (or was it very early Jan 2018?) about a 3k bottom).  I'm picturing something like 20%-30% rise in a single day, staying at the top for no more than 0.5-2 hours, then plumeting down to at least where it started or lower (probably all in 24 hours or much less).  Ex. 60k -> 75k -> 55k (or maybe 50k-60k).  Then you might have a false rally or two, but you are in solid bear territory and might be in for a 85% decline from the top to the bottom.  So then selling around 55k could be a good idea.  You miss out on that last 30% of the gains, but those are very hard to realize (as you risk selling too soon).

...

Unisocks -  a tokenized pair of socks, limited edition, is trading for 70k (EDITED - I wrote 700k before!) which of course is one of several signs that things are getting extra-frothy.

Bitcoin 58.3k ath.

...

I'm surprised the bitcoin dominance is very steady considering all this volatility and rise and fall of altcoins.  It's been in the 60%-70% range (mostly) for 18 months.

...

Canada did an ETF before the US!  I'm surprised as Canada's government is more center-left than the US (more left so than any US government since at least FDR as Canada, like most democratic countries, have an entire political system that is shifted to the left of the US).  Can Americans buy into Canadian ETFs?  It sounds like YES, in which case, why aren't Americans going crazy?

https://www.thebalance.com/introduction-to-canadian-etfs-1979136#:~:text=Exchange%2Dtraded%20funds%20(%22ETFs,with%20the%20simplicity%20of%20equity.&text=These%20Canadian%20ETFs%20can%20be,trying%20to%20buy%20foreign%20stock.

[nrd525]

The negative GBTC premium is baffling.

Interesting: if Blockfi (Celsius Network also perhaps?) is using their BTC that you lend them to do some kind of GBTC arbitrage, that would probably be a lot more secure than lending it out to people.  Though if the premium goes negative, that means they might lower their BTC interest rates which would be sad.

NFTs are super weird and over-valued. Perhaps the strongest sign that we're in a huge bubble?

[nrd525]

30-35 minutes to break 60k.  The real resistance was 58k.  60.6k and going up!

[nrd525]

What is bitcoin acting like? 

It seems to be acting more like a stock (albeit a very bullish stock) perhaps than how it acted during the 2011, 2013, or 2017 bubbles.  Notably it appears to have slowed down.  Whereas if you look at prior bubbles you'd expect it to make a run at 100k or 200k and then collapse by 80%-85%.

I haven't followed specific stocks as much so I'm not sure if the analogy is any good.

[nrd525]

Bitcoin 56k - so 12-13% off the ATH.  ETH regularly getting new ATHs after bitcoin is reminiscent of the 2017/2018 bull market, except I think bitcoin had fallen by more when ETH was surging.

Dogecoin use case is 99.9% speculation and the price rise to 69 cents shows a high level of froth in the market.

We might be near the top of the cycle.

[nrd525]

A guess. Bitcoin has peaked for this bull market (2020-2021) and is going to bottom out in the 20k-30k range within the next 12 months.  That said, I'm not selling.  If true, it's going to be a slow grind to the bottom.  We could also see another ATH for Bitcoin that would be only several percent (eg. 1%-9%) above the last one - which is a kind of resistance.

I have no idea what's going on with the altcoins, notably ETH is ATH at 4.3k - but it's probably going to peak soon.

Shiba Inu Token is hilarious. "Burning" half the tokens by giving them to Vitalik?!?  Market cap of possibly $10 billion?!?  It reminds me of the copycat (Bitcoin Cash fork style) coins: Bitcoin Gold and Bitcoin Diamond.

If you want to bet on the Peru election - neo-fascist Keiko Fujimori (daughter of the dictator and former first lady) vs communist/socialist Pedro Castillo (a teacher who rides horses and farms, but also has party members with links to Shining Path) - I highly recommend getting on PredictIt (US only) or Polymarket (no limits!).  It's a fascinating race.

[nrd525]

So I wrote that before the Elon Musk tweet (about Bitcoin using too much energy and wanting to use something else).

Within the past day we crashed to 30,000 exactly on Coinbase and 29563 on Bitfinex.  And ETH had a low of $1800.  There is a strong bounce back with Bitcoin at 39000 and ETH at 2600.

I'm not sure if this the correction we needed (and we'll take a couple weeks to stabilize or something and then go back up) or if there is more downside to come.  There is probably at least some downside for Doge (still at 36 cents) and some of the other altcoins.

Hmm, my new definition of altcoin is everything except Bitcoin and Ethereum (so I'm adding ETH as a main coin).