nrd525 Market Tracker

[nrd525]

Looks like my LLC plan is running into a big hurdle.   The new program sounds interesting, but I'm wondering if they'll limit it to larger users?  I'm not even sure if Bitfinex is registering non-US users - as the exchanges are all overloaded with requests.

This is in response to my email inquiring how to register as a US LLC.


From Bitfinex:
Thanks for your message.
We had been discontinued service for US customer, it means the verifying US customer had discontinued too.

We are currently working on a new program whereby existing users will be able to invite a limited group of new users to sign-up or the Bitfinex platform. Once this has been finalized we will then notify existing users who qualify with details regarding this program.
At this time , and until such a time as the new program is operational we will not be accepting new users to the platform.

Sorry for any inconvenience.

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[nrd525]

I think the fundamentals follow price but with a major lag. So the 2011 bullmarket created the interest/projects/community that led to the 2013 bull market, and the 2013 led to the 2016-2017.

As such, fundamentals lag price.  So we are still waiting for things like the Lightning Network and exchanges are constantly improving to catch up with their support and technology.

I think some Bitcoin developments are becoming harder. For instance, it was a lot easier to make insecure exchanges in 2011-2013 than to fix them, professionalize, and secure them from hacking.  Similarly, logical moves like implementing Segwit have become cumbersome and slow.  If this is true, we might expect the lag time to increase between bull markets.

However, on the other hand there are also now hundreds of billions of dollars at stake and this will speed up some projects and decrase the lag.

While it is possible that we'd just skip the bear market, it is more likely that we'll go bear, wait a couple years and then go bull. If so, it will be the excitement and projects that started in 2017 that set the stage for the 2020(ish) bull market.

[Samarkand]

...

While it is possible that we'd just skip the bear market, it is more likely that we'll go bear, wait a couple years and then go bull. If so, it will be the excitement and projects that started in 2017 that set the stage for the 2020(ish) bull market.

2020 will be a bull market anyway due to the block reward halving.
Only 6.25 BTC per block from the next halving onwards.

Nevertheless, I agree that we will likely enter a prolonged bear market before that.
Additionally, I´m still sceptical of the impact of the Lightning network and especially
of their development timeline.

[nrd525]

Samarkand - how long do you think Lightning Network is going to take?  What hurdles and potential issues with the concept do they face?

If it doesn't happen within the year, $100-$500+ transaction fees could definitely set off a bear market.

[nrd525]

Ripple is up 90% today and 800% mostly in the past three weeks.  Are banks actually using it?  I'd love to see some transaction use numbers.

[TheQuin]

how long do you think Lightning Network is going to take?  What hurdles and potential issues with the concept do they face?

It's a lot closer than many seem to think. There are actual live implementations being used on the mainnet right now but as invitation-only beta programs. There is a little work to do on user-friendly front ends and security testing then they will be ready to launch. I would hazard a guess that it will be in the first half of 2018. The main hurdle is getting to the point when enough people have adopted it to achieve a network effect where users have an incentive to use it because other people are using it.

[Samarkand]

Samarkand - how long do you think Lightning Network is going to take?  What hurdles and potential issues with the concept do they face?

If it doesn't happen within the year, $100-$500+ transaction fees could definitely set off a bear market.

how long do you think Lightning Network is going to take?  What hurdles and potential issues with the concept do they face?

It's a lot closer than many seem to think. There are actual live implementations being used on the mainnet right now but as invitation-only beta programs. There is a little work to do on user-friendly front ends and security testing then they will be ready to launch. I would hazard a guess that it will be in the first half of 2018. The main hurdle is getting to the point when enough people have adopted it to achieve a network effect where users have an incentive to use it because other people are using it.

I have 4-5 different reasons why I´m sceptical of the Lightning Network, but my main reasons are the following:

1. Development time
We have heard claims that the LN is right around the corner for a long time. Yet
I´m sceptical that we will indeed see a launch in the first half of 2018. The developers are (correctly)
prioritizing security above anything else and ensuring this takes much more work than putting up
a few youtube videos or making first tests with live implementations. They can´t mess this up and
they know it. Besides, in software development, especially with a complex project like the LN
there are always unforeseen problems that can postpone a launch.

2. Adoption among existing BTC owners
Segwit was a great improvement and yet adoption is not particularly high, because even
some of the biggest businesses haven´t implemented it due to incompetence or
political reasons.

http://segwit.party/charts/
(it is actually decreasing in the last days)

What makes you think that LN adoption will be different? A big majority of current BTC holders
are in it for speculative purposes or trading. They will not jump at the opportunity to buy some
stuff using the Lightning network. It is entirely possible that Lightning usage will be disappointing
- at least in the first few months after the launch.

3. Adoption among outside users
I see similar issues with adoption among outside users. Paypal, e-wallets and credit card
work just fine for the online payments of many people. They don´t exactly need a solution
like the Lightning network.

Generally, I think using 2nd layer solutions for scaling is the right way and much better
than the Bitcoin Cash approach (especially, because low value transactions are going
to get priced out of the main layer - exactly the development that we are witnessing right now).
However, I think the Lightning Network is overhyped and
won´t have the impact that people think it will have.

I think that we will see a prolonged bear market and even the release of the Lightning network
won´t change that.

[TheQuin]

I actually agree with most of what you say there Samarkand. Just one point on Segwit adoption, the holdup here is that Core hasn't released a Segwit capable wallet yet and that is what most large services use. I'm told 0.16.0 including full Segwit will be out very soon and I'd expect the % Segwit transaction to pick up significantly after that.

When I said first-half 2018 I'm meaning that for a working product to be generally available, the network effect of adoption will take a lot longer. I may be proved to be overly optimistic but I think there is a fair chance.

[nrd525]

Lightning network would be good for traders who like to move their funds around between their wallet, several exchanges, and a couple websites where they might actually spend them (like purse).

With $30+ transaction fees a lot of people will be motivated to use it - even if they only do a couple transactions per year.

That said - the exchanges might not care and focus on improving their servers and acquiring new customers.

...

I sold 0.1 BTC at 15150.

[nrd525]

Interesting how BitBet, which used to be the number #1 bitcoin prediction site, has shutdown (properly - paying out customer funds and bets - so far as I've read - no direct experience).  So despite the huge bitcoin boom, nobody bothered to keep it going.  

Doesn't bode well for Augur and their hilarious $850 million market cap.

Looks like Ripple could succeed, and they do have customers (banks). But even if they do, it is unsure why the coins would be worth more than a penny as their transaction fees are tiny and a huge amount of their coins are owned by a founder who defected and has started a competitor - so they are fueling their own demise!).

[nrd525]

Ripple is up another 34% on the day.  Evidence that the crypto bubble isn't over.

Overall crypto market cap at $725 billion. All-Time-High.  And up $100 billion from when BTC peaked at 20k.

[Samarkand]

Ripple is up another 34% on the day.  Evidence that the crypto bubble isn't over.

...

It seems like every coin that Jed McCaleb is attached to is going to pump especially hard.
The next time he starts a cryptocurrency project I will be in on the ground floor.

Nevertheless, I have to admit that all the coins with a really high supply (e.g. Ripple or Stellar with +100 billion
outstanding coins) are performing especially good during a bubble like this. This is probably caused
by the psychological biases and anchor effects that affect the majority of people. Just look at all the guys,
who log in to Coinbase just to buy the coins that are "cheaper" than Bitcoin.

[nrd525]

I'm wondering if there is an unprecedented number of pump and dump groups, and if they actually control billions of dollars - and are displacing traditional traders in many of the alt-coins?

The alt-coin pumping is at an ATH.

This seems like the tech bubble, when from what I've heard all sorts of nonsense companies were pumped.  Though I wasn't investing (other than some Nortel Networks that I had via the TSE-300 index) at the time.  The psychology is pure gambling/ponzi.  It's impossible to be rational if you are trading things that go up 40% in a day.

For me the big question is whether we'll have one more bitcoin pump, or if the altcoins will die without having another bitcoin pump.  And then it's time for the bear market.

[nrd525]

Sold 0.5 BTC at 15100.

[Toxic2040]

I'm wondering if there is an unprecedented number of pump and dump groups, and if they actually control billions of dollars - and are displacing traditional traders in many of the alt-coins?

The alt-coin pumping is at an ATH.

This seems like the tech bubble, when from what I've heard all sorts of nonsense companies were pumped.  Though I wasn't investing (other than some Nortel Networks that I had via the TSE-300 index) at the time.  The psychology is pure gambling/ponzi.  It's impossible to be rational if you are trading things that go up 40% in a day.

For me the big question is whether we'll have one more bitcoin pump, or if the altcoins will die without having another bitcoin pump.  And then it's time for the bear market.

  v   This is just one group here that I saw. They claim over 75k members...all slam dancing thru different exchanges.

Pump in 13h https://discord.gg/PkRajM

I imagine non-English speaking groups are out there too. The power of such groups is not to be denied. Everyone keeps going to the the .com bubble..its really the only modern thing we can equate with the rise of cryptocurrencies. Yes..many of those companies crashed and burned. But dozens are now billion dollar+ entities. I paraphrase what I said in another thread..can it be a bubble if your filling empty space. This is something new. A paradigm shift if you will. Global markets and Sovereign states are being dragged into this new "space" wither they want to come or not. Of the estimated 80 trillion in "broad" money out there crypto is going to grab a large chunk. Never all...there will always be a need for coin and cash...and other commodity's. Is getting 50% of that unreasonable?  Maybe...but I think it will easily double from where it is now..and double again.

[nrd525]

It's unreasonable because we don't have good use cases.  Most of the proposed use cases are unrealistic and often the token is completely unecessary.  We haven't even built major bitcoin prediction markets (though Fairlay and others are trying) - because marketing is hard.  You might as well be investing in building a colony on Mars, asteroid mining, or cold fusion.  Space has an infinite market cap

Along those lines, according to this article XRP only plays a marginal role in the Ripple Network.
https://medium.com/@twobitidiot/i-see-you-xrp-fcf151feb96d

Why does Ripple think that banks and other institutions will use XRP as a currency bridge and hold reserves of it given its massive volatility? 
They'd have to offset their holdings with a massive short position which would be too expensive (and currently impossible) to maintain, as well as exposing them to exchange hack/theft risk.

[nrd525]

I think there have been three (at least) companies that added blockchain plans and it has caused their stock to pump.  Latest one is Kodak - went from $3 to $12.  Very bubbly.

S. Korea might be shutting down exchanges or just cracking down on fraudulent activity.

[nrd525]

Binance claims to add million plus of accounts per week.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-11/world-s-top-ranked-crypto-venue-added-240-000-users-in-one-hour

Are Chinese mainland residents allowed to use Hong Kong exchanges?  If so, that is a huge loophole!

[nrd525]

Bitfinex has opened up new account registration.  I just realized a possible loophole.  It is perfectly fine according to their TOS to trade on their website if you are a US based LLC (or other corporate entity), so long as you deposit/withdraw in crypto only.  So I could skip the 6-8 week verification process (could even take longer if they get overloaded - and it might take a while to get my local LLC bank account setup).  And at these current swap rates (0.07%/day), the extra 6+ weeks of interest can add up.

Does this sound legitimate?

Downside is that I have to regularly say "I'm not a US resident" (which they actually have reworded at least at once place to say "I'm not a US individual customer").  So the interface will become very annoying.  Also they might not believe me, in which case they could put my funds on hold and make me go through the verification process...


search for 'U.S.' to find all the references to US persons.

https://www.bitfinex.com/legal/terms

[Syke]

Bitfinex has opened up new account registration.  I just realized a possible loophole.  It is perfectly fine according to their TOS to trade on their website if you are a US based LLC (or other corporate entity), so long as you deposit/withdraw in crypto only.  So I could skip the 6-8 week verification process (could even take longer if they get overloaded - and it might take a while to get my local LLC bank account setup).  And at these current swap rates (0.07%/day), the extra 6+ weeks of interest can add up.

Does this sound legitimate?

I think you might be right as long as you're lending and not borrowing:

U.S. Persons may not be Financing Recipients on the Site.