nrd525 Market Tracker

[ejinte]

The goal of a centralized payment system is to reduce the transaction cost.  For instance, last time I checked Dwolla was free for transactions under $10 and 25 cents above that. 

Hmm, LTC continues to dump. 

Just woke up, should've traded the head and shoulder pattern. Bitcoin is also dumping.

[RoadTrain]

With Bitcoin I'm currently waiting for the Lightning Network. That thing can push Bitcoin to a whole new level.

Never knew about that before but couldn't find much information about it when I searched either. Could you describe it? Some sort of side-chain technology isn't?

Look here for a draft paper http://lightning.network/

It's a technology allowing for secure off-chain BTC payments. If it succeeds, Bitcoin can scale to much larger transaction volumes.

The big blockchain problem is also solvable, e.g. by using some sort of UTXO commitments. It has been discussed various times here and on the mailing list. It's just not that pressing atm.

[nrd525]

Alright, whoever told me to use a stop loss on my LTC...  Not so happy...  I should have stuck with my original strategy of trading value. Twice I got scared (first when there was a BFX flash crash, before it generalized to the other exchanges and secondly when I saw a bullish flag that looked like a second pump).

[ejinte]

Alright, whoever told me to use a stop loss on my LTC...  Not so happy...  I should have stuck with my original strategy of trading value. Twice I got scared (first when there was a BFX flash crash, before it generalized to the other exchanges and secondly when I saw a bullish flag that looked like a second pump).

Wasn't your base price like $2 on the first trade?

[nrd525]

My base price was $2.55.  And I think we'll hit that target within a month or two.  I should have stuck with the original trade.

Bitfinex has already come close to that price - with the short lived dip to $3.18.

That said, I really should have stuck with not trading or bought a couple BTC. 

It looks like BTC is going to have a slow bull cycle - which could be a lot healthier than a crazy one.  BFX BTC swaps are hanging out at slightly under 10k - generally their lowest level since December 2014.

---

Ashley Barr, former MtGox employee, does a "Ask Me Anything" on Reddit with insight into Mark Karpeles.  Notably he thinks Mark was behind the Willy Bot.  Any evidence that the Willy Bot was used by pumpers, hackers, or Mt Gox to cover for their losses - is bearish as it means that some or most of the 2013 price was due to manipulation and the actual value might have been as low as $40-$200.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3fe92x/im_ashley_barr_aka_adam_turner_the_first_mtgox/

[Fakhoury]

Hey nrd, hope you are doing well dear.

Could we hear more about you regarding BTC

[nrd525]

Is there any reason BTC is going down?

News: Brainwallets are hackable if you use a password that isn't extremely strong.

Bitfinex is going to stop allow NY residents to trade cryptocurrencies due to the Bitlicense.  This could be a big story. Especially if the Bitlicense is adopted by other US states.  On the other hand, the Coinbase exchange will hopefully start working in every US state (Does anyone know if they are working on this?).  Currently I can buy/sell in my state, but not use their exchange features.

[ejinte]

My base price was $2.55.  And I think we'll hit that target within a month or two.  I should have stuck with the original trade.

Bitfinex has already come close to that price - with the short lived dip to $3.18.

That said, I really should have stuck with not trading or bought a couple BTC. 

It looks like BTC is going to have a slow bull cycle - which could be a lot healthier than a crazy one.  BFX BTC swaps are hanging out at slightly under 10k - generally their lowest level since December 2014.

Maybe you shouldn't take advise from random guys on the internet.

[nrd525]

I think day traders like stop losses because they let them gamble for longer before going bankrupt.

Random anonymous, probably guys, on the internet created bitcoin =)

I cannot believe I fell for it!

BTC down to $265. I hope everyone is panic selling.   Yesterday the BTCe premium was -$10 versus BFX and Bitstamp, which is almost 4%.
It is interesting that LTC is falling only a tiny bit faster than BTC. Normally it would fall or rise several times faster.

Does anyone know how to get voice validated on Whale Club (www.whaleclub.org)?  I've never used Teamspeak, but I do have a headset.  I don't want to talk on Whale Club - just to listen in to the Price Action room when things get heated. 

[Morecoin Freeman]

Does anyone know how to get voice validated on Whale Club (www.whaleclub.org)?  I've never used Teamspeak, but I do have a headset.  I don't want to talk on Whale Club - just to listen in to the Price Action room when things get heated. 

To get voice validated you need to audition by singing a song of your choice.
More information about joining the TeamSpeak can be found here:

Instructions to get on WhaleClub TeamSpeak Channel
To connect to teamspeak enter server: ts.whaleclub.io
It's public, everybody can join.
To be able to speak, ask a Mod to be verified.

How to join tutorial :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qv0TdqVRoLE

[nrd525]

8 mb block size might be bullish.

At least it looks like the miners have a super-majority and are making a decision:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3glfo1/44_of_bitcoin_mining_hash_power_is_currently/

[Fakhoury]

8 mb block size might be bullish.

At least it looks like the miners have a super-majority and are making a decision:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3glfo1/44_of_bitcoin_mining_hash_power_is_currently/

But we didn't even reach the %50+1 nrd !!

[nrd525]

I read a comment that said 60-65% had gone with 8 mb.  On Reddit.  Not sure how to verify these statistics.

[nrd525]

So the bitcoin block size crisis has gone "nuclear" =)

It is probably a good time to buy in and possibly place some low buy orders in case things get crazy.  Today someone dumped 9k on Bitfinex which was fun to watch.

LTC trending down.  Looking increasingly less likely that there will be another halving bubble. 

Real news: several businesses closing down in NY due to the Bitlicense.  Including Bitfinex.  Fortunately I don't reside in NY state.  This is fairly significant and could become a major problem if the license is adopted by other states.

[nrd525]

I watched a similar video to this link on the Lightning Network - a way to scale Bitcoin to handle billions of transactions (and to allow for small transactions which are currently on their way out - as transaction fees rise).  Looks promising!  Though I don't have a good grasp of what the hurdles and potential problems are:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zVzw912wPo

If they can pull it off, this project would be very bullish for Bitcoin. Though it'd probably take 2-3 years to start it.

[nrd525]

Wow I should have placed some low buy orders on BFX.  Flash crash to 162!

[nrd525]

BFX bid (and ask) order book is reinforced.  Public bids used to be around 10k down to $100 and are now 17k.

So there could be a second crash, but it is less likely to fall as far.  Also - $5 million of long positions are liquidated.

According to a BFX employee (see the Whale Club audio recording), the flash crash didn't trigger their breaker (which slows down sell orders). 

Now what could still be fun and big (at least for me), is a LTC crash.  My LTC (second big) short is almost positive (well down 10%, but that is a lot better as I closed 60% of it at $5 and am still making up the big loss from that).

I moved $2k out of swaps in preparation for the a possible BTC price fall, but didn't put up any bids until after the crash.

If BTC continues to fall due to the fork crisis, and LTC does a small fall after the halving (due to the lack of a secondary halving bubble) - then that might cause traders to move funds from LTC to "cheap" BTC which could cause LTC to fall to $2.  Just a theory.  Or at some point the LTC ponzi owners are going to cash out and that could crash the price to $1.  It's even possible that the BTC fork is resolved and that provokes LTC to fall. 

I encourage everyone to subscribe to the alternative bitcoin-related reddit forums to increase the level of democracy in our discussions.  There is also a LitecoinMarkets one which where it'd be nice to have more contributions.

[nrd525]

I think the miners might agree to a 8 mb block size.  So that is good news.    That could put off hard decisions by at least 1-2 years, and meanwhile everyone can forget that the debate ever happened.

44% at 8mb:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3glfo1/44_of_bitcoin_mining_hash_power_is_currently/

[nrd525]

Not only is BFX USD swaps (longs) down $6 million from the peak.  Half (or more?) of the money is out of the swap market. So it is either being held or has moved off the exchange.

There is $3 million of USD swap available (some at high rates), but there was at least $1 million available before the last flash crash.

Maybe some of the money went into placing low bids in the order book.

[nrd525]

LTC is falling and near my original cost basis ($2.55) for my big short.  Should have held on and shorted it to under $2.  If things get really crazy, LTC could flash crash under $1 at one or more exchanges.

I think people are overacting to the Bitcoin block size drama.  Maybe a lot of people are finally realizing that Bitcoin isn't ever going to handle lots of transactions.  Though I saw an interesting post on Reddit from someone who said they were a big miner and could actually handle 8 GB (not a typo) blocks - now.  The transaction fees would be enough to pay for their costs.

With all this chaos, Bitcoin might retest the January $155-$170 low.  I still think January was the absolute bottom of the bear market, but another shock (like a large government auction or a second large US state adopting the Bitlicense) could send us even lower.   With Bitcoin - the number of possible things that go wrong is infinite.

...

I setup Teamspeak.  I think you can listen in to the Main Price Action Room without being voice verified (I heard a couple people - but nothing recently).  And that is good because the vaughn.tv website is streaming the public room which they've stopped using.