nrd525 Market Tracker

[nrd525]

Ransomware is one of Bitcoin's uses:

http://www.coindesk.com/cryptowall-325-million-bitcoin-ransom/

Is the $325 million number reliable or an exaggeration?

[nrd525]

A lot of debate about whether the current price increase is being partially caused by the MMM ponzi:

https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/3r1p7l/daily_discussion_sunday_november_01_2015/

Do you think that it is true?

[nrd525]

Is the Whale Club teamspeak server down or changed?

I've been trying to connect to ts.whaleclub.co for the past week and haven't been able to do so.  This is the link from whaleclub.org and it used to work.

I get the error: "failed to resolve host name"

...

BFX: $348, wow.

[BTCtrader71]

Is the Whale Club teamspeak server down or changed?

I've been trying to connect to ts.whaleclub.co for the past week and haven't been able to do so.  This is the link from whaleclub.org and it used to work.

I get the error: "failed to resolve host name"

...

BFX: $348, wow.

They just changed a lot of stuff about their website. Big upgrade I suppose.
https://www.whaleclub.co/

[nrd525]

Whaleclub new team speak server:
ts.whaleclub.io

[nrd525]

So BTC is currently parabolic.  It's useful to treat this as an irrational bubble. What are the properties of a bubble?

-insane growth rates - eg 3-15%/day
-increasing growth rates. So the rate of daily increase (with the exception of pullbacks) will increase.
-the top comes after the greatest daily increase (and the most exuberant trader sentiment)
-sharp plunges - eg. 20% in 5-15 minutes  (might happen more in things that you can trade fast and where shorting is allowed?)
-wide divergences between Chinese, US, and BTCe exchanges
-large OkCoin futures premium over spot
-possible impact on altcoins - could spark secondary bubbles
-massive media coverage which could fuel the bubble for a while (Investing in this bubble is possibly more rational than investing in the MM ponzi - and millions of people invest in ponzis)
-strong bounces (Currently watching the fall from $423 to $375 on BFX - but already bounced to $394)
-shorting is very dangerous - ex. Bitfinex BTC shorts fell from 18k BTC to 9k BTC within the past 24 hours  (Though LTC shorts are only down from 106k to 88k)
-BTC longs (at least at Bitfinex) tend to peak after the bubble is over.

[nrd525]

Bubble increases. Ex. Today's dip was 27% ($504 to $366 on BFX), yesterday 12% ($423 to $375).
Today's increase was also larger (before the crash).

The BFX over BTCe premium is down to $2 (previously $40+).

This 27% dip is trouble.

Currently China has a $40 premium over BFX.

I think this bubble won't last too long. It could be over today. It is unlikely to last longer than 4 weeks.

[nrd525]

Has historical daily BTC price data from Nov-Dec 2013 which is useful for the comparison to the current bubble:
http://www.investing.com/currencies/btc-usd-historical-data
(Not sure what index they are using and the percentages will vary a lot by exchange.)

The 27% decline on BFX is the same size as Nov 12-13 (2013) decline from $349 to $255 - both are 27%.

In 2013, this was followed by a large rise and the another 53.5% fall ($823 to $375).

Then the final decline that burst the bubble was a 38% fall from $1095 to $677.

This is probably significant due to traders liking to make these comparisons.  But is it significant enough to matter?  Currently with BFX at $400, we're going to have to start moving up again within the next four days or so, or the bubble is over.  You can see some pauses in the 2013 bubble.

[nrd525]

If nothing happens soon, we're in a slow grind down.

[nrd525]

Closed 100 of my LTC short at a slight profit (or maybe zero after swap costs).  Still shorting 500.  Lot of traders talking about a floor for BTC here around $350, but I'm skeptical.

[nrd525]

I think we're going down to 220-240.  But I'm holding.  Might take 1-2 months.

[nrd525]

Remittances!
http://www.coindesk.com/visa-europe-remittances-bitcoin-blockchain/

If mobile phone payment becomes big, you could integrate remittances with that pretty easily.

If/when Bitcoin is directly connected to a major act of terrorism - it's not going to be good.  Hopefully it'll just be a minor act, like kidnapping.  Or a major act in a non-rich country, so the media and rich won't make a big deal of it.

I, of course, do not support terrorism whether done by the state (and normally called "war" or even better "defense") or a private actor.

[nrd525]

In good news, I'm on course to make around $2k in interest in "margin providing" at BFX this year.  Including almost $500 of BTC interest (got lucky when the BTC margin rate was higher back in the early part of 2015).   This is around a 8-10% return (the USD return is approximately 13-15% and the BTC 3-5%).  Though the return rate is still a lot lower than it was in 2014 or the much beloved 2013 year, but I think the level of risk is much lower as well.

I'd be doing even better if I was using the MarginBot or not wasting my money shorting LTC.

In general, I expect the return rate to fall even further in 2016 -- unless volatility increases.

[nrd525]

What are people's thoughts on the Scaling Bitcoin conference?

I watched some of the Youtube videos. It was mostly over my head. I got the feeling that scaling bitcoin is hard and might take several years before we have solutions.  It appears to be hard to scale a decentralized system that has to be very wary of attackers and possible miner manipulation.  I think we're very far from understanding what a "fee market" even is, let alone implementing one. Imagine what would happen if the fees varied by a factor of 10-100 over one week - but you didn't know whether they would ever settle down.  It's hard enough that bitcoin price varies so much, if you add varying and much larger transaction fees to that...

http://www.coindesk.com/hard-fork-developers-scaling-bitcoin/

[nrd525]

I'm thinking that the Australian Satoshi might have to sell 200k-400k bitcoin to pay taxes.  Very bearish:

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/dec/09/bitcoin-founder-craig-wrights-home-raided-by-australian-police?CMP=twt_gu

https://www.ato.gov.au/General/Gen/Tax-treatment-of-crypto-currencies-in-Australia---specifically-bitcoin/

On second thought, the income might have been very little as the Bitcoin wasn't worth much when he mined it. So then it depends on whether the trust is legitimate and shields him from capital gains.

[nrd525]

I placed some bid orders at 421 (back when the price was $435).

[nrd525]

I bought around 7 bitcoins for around $430-$440

Dark web drug markets having problems:
http://www.wired.com/2016/01/the-silk-roads-dark-web-dream-is-dead/

[r3t4rD4life]

I bought around 7 bitcoins for around $430-$440

Dark web drug markets having problems:
http://www.wired.com/2016/01/the-silk-roads-dark-web-dream-is-dead/

Posted an hour before the drop into the low 420s. Here we have either a bad buy, or an effective shill.

[nrd525]

Ha. I'm no shill. I've been on the forum since 2011.  And just because I bought $10-$20 above the now market price (should have stuck with my original $422 bid), is part of a long-term primarily holding strategy.  In the long run $10-$20 is nothing.  I've just recently increased in assets and have been meaning to increase the percent invested in bitcoins for a couple weeks.

[r3t4rD4life]

Fair enough. I am paranoid about shills on this forum, it is true. I may be a retard, but I will never be a shill. Anyway, I bought a small amount of coin above 450 with the moon sentiment going on in my head. Shit happens. Sorry for calling you out man, I feel bad now. We agree on one thing atleast, hold that shit !!! Only times I've truly been burned was when I was trying to short the market. OK I'll show myself the door now.