nrd525 Market Tracker

[bassclef]

I've heard a lot of rumors about the LTC ponzi and very few facts. Honestly I believe it was an excuse to pump LTC and push BTC over resistance.

What I do know, as I participated in the pump and watched the orderbooks closely, is that someone had a really fast bot that provided buy support right at market. When the orders were sold into, they were immediately replaced to keep the price as high as possible. These were not the actions of amateur speculators, but of a sophisticated buying campaign by large operators across multiple exchanges to push the price up.

Once the price was to their target, the LTC that the bots had collected were dumped at market on each exchange, causing the initial crash. At the same time, thousands of BTC were market bought across multiple exchanges, pushing BTC over significant resistance and buying up most of the remaining supply standing in the way of a potential bull market. (The "creek" in Wyckoff terminology) Again, not the actions of amateur market-making.

I don't have enough evidence to make a definite conclusion, but considering what I know about market structure and how large operators tend to work in the market once they've cornered the supply, I tend to think there was something larger at play.

A conclusion one might draw is that these operators are interested in LTC. It's a fairly liquid market (compared to most altcoins) so you can extract a decent profit when volume picks up. It's traded at major exchanges and tracks BTC's ups and downs. Considering how successful the initial campaign was, they will probably pump it again.

[nrd525]

Is there a known LTC mixer site?

I did a bit of Googling and didn't find one.  There might have been LTC mixers a couple years ago.

[nrd525]

I've heard a lot of rumors about the LTC ponzi and very few facts. Honestly I believe it was an excuse to pump LTC and push BTC over resistance.

What I do know, as I participated in the pump and watched the orderbooks closely, is that someone had a really fast bot that provided buy support right at market. When the orders were sold into, they were immediately replaced to keep the price as high as possible. These were not the actions of amateur speculators, but of a sophisticated buying campaign by large operators across multiple exchanges to push the price up.

Once the price was to their target, the LTC that the bots had collected were dumped at market on each exchange, causing the initial crash. At the same time, thousands of BTC were market bought across multiple exchanges, pushing BTC over significant resistance and buying up most of the remaining supply standing in the way of a potential bull market. (The "creek" in Wyckoff terminology) Again, not the actions of amateur market-making.

I don't have enough evidence to make a definite conclusion, but considering what I know about market structure and how large operators tend to work in the market once they've cornered the supply, I tend to think there was something larger at play.

A conclusion one might draw is that these operators are interested in LTC. It's a fairly liquid market (compared to most altcoins) so you can extract a decent profit when volume picks up. It's traded at major exchanges and tracks BTC's ups and downs. Considering how successful the initial campaign was, they will probably pump it again.

Thanks for an informative post!

I am worried about a second pump (or really a third one, if you could the 2013 pump).  I'm guessing they won't do it for several months.

There are some decent facts about the LTC ponzi - including a couple forum discussions of it on Chinese forums, a video of a man speaking on behalf of the scheme to investors (also in Chinese - there is a half-decent English translation of this), and block chain evidence of interest payouts.

[bassclef]

I've heard a lot of rumors about the LTC ponzi and very few facts. Honestly I believe it was an excuse to pump LTC and push BTC over resistance.

What I do know, as I participated in the pump and watched the orderbooks closely, is that someone had a really fast bot that provided buy support right at market. When the orders were sold into, they were immediately replaced to keep the price as high as possible. These were not the actions of amateur speculators, but of a sophisticated buying campaign by large operators across multiple exchanges to push the price up.

Once the price was to their target, the LTC that the bots had collected were dumped at market on each exchange, causing the initial crash. At the same time, thousands of BTC were market bought across multiple exchanges, pushing BTC over significant resistance and buying up most of the remaining supply standing in the way of a potential bull market. (The "creek" in Wyckoff terminology) Again, not the actions of amateur market-making.

I don't have enough evidence to make a definite conclusion, but considering what I know about market structure and how large operators tend to work in the market once they've cornered the supply, I tend to think there was something larger at play.

A conclusion one might draw is that these operators are interested in LTC. It's a fairly liquid market (compared to most altcoins) so you can extract a decent profit when volume picks up. It's traded at major exchanges and tracks BTC's ups and downs. Considering how successful the initial campaign was, they will probably pump it again.

Thanks for an informative post!

I am worried about a second pump (or really a third one, if you could the 2013 pump).  I'm guessing they won't do it for several months.

There are some decent facts about the LTC ponzi - including a couple forum discussions of it on Chinese forums, a video of a man speaking on behalf of the scheme to investors (also in Chinese - there is a half-decent English translation of this), and block chain evidence of interest payouts.

I'll have to look into those sources. Unfortunately good information is hard to come by about the alleged ponzi--I'm only speculating based on what I see in the market. As a trader I will take a LTC position if BTC continues to rally, though. Having traded through the 2013 bubble it makes sense to me.

[nrd525]

I think the LTC blockchain is the easiest piece of data for a non-Chinese speaker to analyze.

A couple years ago, after my involvement in opposing the Bitcoin Savings and Trust ponzi, I compiled this thread on ponzis which was later stickied:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=100696.0

...

I'm too lazy to follow all of the outgoing transactions from the alleged LTC ponzi address.   But the ones I did follow didn't go to exchanges (they were for addresses with only a couple transactions). 

I'm guessing the LTC ponzi operator has 2-6 million LTC based on the fact that 8.6 million went through the alleged address, and the scheme operated for around 100 days.  They were paying out an average of 1.1% interest. The size of the takings is hard to estimate. On the one hand they were paying out a lot of interest, but on the other hand the size of ponzi schemes stays relatively small in their early stages (and in some cases they put investors on a waiting list).  But it does look like the people who invested were mostly getting interest payments, and very few, if any, were completely cashing out.

[Natalia_AnatolioPAMM]

Is there a known LTC mixer site?

I did a bit of Googling and didn't find one.  There might have been LTC mixers a couple years ago.

once I searched for it too and neither found a thing.

[Wexlike]

Is there a known LTC mixer site?

I did a bit of Googling and didn't find one.  There might have been LTC mixers a couple years ago.

once I searched for it too and neither found a thing.

Isn't this a clear businesses opportunity?

[nrd525]

People might be using exchanges (especially those with zero fees) and/or gambling sites as mixers. One consequence of not having a mixer site and having a lower market cap is that LTC is less anonymous than BTC.  Which makes it easier to track ponzis and scams.

...


BTC continues having problems with online payment adoption:
http://www.coindesk.com/expedia-exec-purchases-with-bitcoin-are-down-40/

[brg444]

People might be using exchanges (especially those with zero fees) and/or gambling sites as mixers. One consequence of not having a mixer site and having a lower market cap is that LTC is less anonymous than BTC.  Which makes it easier to track ponzis and scams.

...


BTC continues having problems with online payment adoption:
http://www.coindesk.com/expedia-exec-purchases-with-bitcoin-are-down-40/

Well that was expected. Retail adoption of Bitcoin was never a good idea to begin with and only redditards fooled themselves into believing it was gaining any traction at all.

[Chef Ramsay]

People might be using exchanges (especially those with zero fees) and/or gambling sites as mixers. One consequence of not having a mixer site and having a lower market cap is that LTC is less anonymous than BTC.  Which makes it easier to track ponzis and scams.

...


BTC continues having problems with online payment adoption:
http://www.coindesk.com/expedia-exec-purchases-with-bitcoin-are-down-40/

Well that was expected. Retail adoption of Bitcoin was never a good idea to begin with and only redditards fooled themselves into believing it was gaining any traction at all.

All adoption to some extent takes is the next bull run that no one can comprehend and then all bets are off and the top becomes heavy when the public gets wind of the move up. See it coming or fold early, your choice.

[nrd525]

Discussion of updates about the LTC ponzi.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1115157.100

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=zh-CN&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2F8btc.com%2Fthread-20877-1-1.html&edit-text=

[nrd525]

99% of the 1.06 million LTC balance that was there on July 10th at 6:57 is stored in addresses like the main one or others that have 20k-90k (and received no other incoming transactions other than ones from this ponzi).  So they have barely moved and have not been sold on exchanges.

The money hasn't been laundered.  The transaction trail is small (only 1-3 jumps) for each of the 30k outgoing transactions.

---
Now so the moderators don't kill me - what is the impact on BTC of a LTC ponzi?  Probably marginal.  A ponzi induced LTC price crash could hurt BTC, but not by much.  The LTC ponzi operators could launder the money through BTC and then into USD or CNY. This could boost BTC short-term (and long term have no effect).

The operators might be better at ponzi schemes than at day trading cryptocurrency (weak evidence: their failure to sell at the LTC top, and their failure to launder their money). In which case, they might do something silly like buying lots of BTC on a single exchange.

[nrd525]

So there are alleged three people behind the LTC ponzi.  8.6 million, you might expect each of them to have a third of this (minus the interest payments).

This address has 2.49 million in transactions and a balance of 210k, and got it from the main one.  Transactions started around April 15th (when the ponzi began).
http://ltc.blockr.io/address/info/Lhv6b1tumaytM7ENRwfPwVa8RNfRVYw6eJ

A lot of the money appears to be going out in small amounts.  These might exceed the 1% daily interest.  For instance, this account got regular payments of 4.5 ltc (0.9%), and then a larger payment of 76 LTC (15.2%) on July 15th.  It is possible that this investment scheme had two types of payments.
http://ltc.blockr.io/address/info/LLgdWh5bSrmXZz4RNiCK4Fu6z2GpCw2yhF


One large untouched address has 273k:
http://ltc.blockr.io/address/info/LLgdWh5bSrmXZz4RNiCK4Fu6z2GpCw2yhF


I'm now up to 1.5 million in LTC that hasn't gone to exchanges.


This person invested almost 500k in the ponzi:
http://ltc.blockr.io/address/info/3Nh3pRKbyEi8tWP5DvF43tzb9sLabqHNH2

[ejinte]

I like your research, thanks for sharing. What's your base price for your LTC short right now? Did you set a stop lose order?

[nrd525]

Base price is $4.33 - but much of that is because I re-shorted at $5.20 on the day of the crash, when I realized that it wasn't a bitfinex flash crash.

I've never use a stop loss.  Maybe I should but I'm trying to trade fundamentals, not trends.  So in my view, the more I lose, the stronger the chance of a reversal.  Hopefully this differs from "bag holding".  I have only done two major margin trades - so I haven't needed stop losses.

[ejinte]

I've my 650LTC short with a base price of $4.65 and I just put a stop lose at $4.05. Not because I think that LTC will fly up again, but in case it does I will be safe. If you'd had stop loses you wouldn't been a victim of the bubble in the first place. 

[nrd525]

Doesn't the stop loss need to be above your shorting price?  How does that work?

If I had used a stop loss, I probably would have just re-entered the market.    Now I might have benefited by having the stop loss being called, and then re-entering at a much higher price. But I also might have missed the crash.

The biggest lesson I've learned is that you should never try to short the beginning of a bubble.  You want to short much nearer the peak.  And even that is so risky that it probably is a bad idea.

Is anyone shorting the Chinese stock market?  It has done a small recovery, and looks like it has much further to fall.

[phoenix1]

People might be using exchanges (especially those with zero fees) and/or gambling sites as mixers. One consequence of not having a mixer site and having a lower market cap is that LTC is less anonymous than BTC.  Which makes it easier to track ponzis and scams.

...


BTC continues having problems with online payment adoption:
http://www.coindesk.com/expedia-exec-purchases-with-bitcoin-are-down-40/

Well that was expected. Retail adoption of Bitcoin was never a good idea to begin with and only redditards fooled themselves into believing it was gaining any traction at all.

Errm .. isn;t this exactly what has been said about the probems with a 'deflationary' currency - people wont spend it if they think it will be worth more in the future. Nobody want to pay with BTC now cos they think it will moon.
Even if adoption is happening now, BTC holders won't spend it at the moment because they think (and may well be right) that they will get more 'bang for their buck' in the future, plus the fact that many are also underwater and won't take a loss. Ergo, they spend $'s now, not BTC. Catch 22 ...
Pretty much why Yanis the Greek God, and many other economists, have said that said BTC would not work as a national currency. Deflation destroys economies as people think that if they defer spending thay will get more for their money. All fine if there are a bunch of other people propping up the economy in the interim ... if not ... ooops

[ejinte]

Doesn't the stop loss need to be above your shorting price?  How does that work?

If I had used a stop loss, I probably would have just re-entered the market.    Now I might have benefited by having the stop loss being called, and then re-entering at a much higher price. But I also might have missed the crash.

The biggest lesson I've learned is that you should never try to short the beginning of a bubble.  You want to short much nearer the peak.  And even that is so risky that it probably is a bad idea.

Is anyone shorting the Chinese stock market?  It has done a small recovery, and looks like it has much further to fall.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stop-lossorder.asp

I had my stop loss to buy back 650LTC at $4.05, so when the the first trade was made above that price my coins was sold at a market order. That seems to have been a good choice as the price now is trading at $4.17. I regret that I didn't close it at $3.2 instead, but there will always be new opportunities.

On poloniex it's possible to have a limited order at another price than the stop loss. There I could set an stop loss at $4.05 to open a limite order at $4.00 or $4.10 or what ever, much better in my opinion. Bitfinex uses market orders only as far as I know.

LTC is moving up as I write this...

[Morecoin Freeman]

I regret that I didn't close it at $3.2 instead, but there will always be new opportunities.

Profit = profit, you did good.