nrd525 Market Tracker

[nrd525]

BFX swaps at $40.1 million (200k available). BTC at $770.  I'm selling on the way up (and have sold almost half of my bitcoins - 20 out of 43).  For some reason, I'm almost always buying on the way down and selling on the way up.

At this rate, I expect a good pull-back  - if not before halving, then at least after it.

OKcoin quarterlies are at $840 which is a big premium.  The Chinese premium is very small ($10).  GBTC premium is very large ($550-$600) - and also in percent terms (75%).

In the last big run-up we had a daily candle that went from 360 to 504 (BFX), or up 40% - right before the collapse.  I'd be surprised if we get another 40% daily increase, but it is possible.

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[nrd525]

BFX swaps at $41.1 million and there are $2.3 million available.  They might be adding $3-$5 million/day!

[RoadTrain]

Meanwhile, available BTC swaps on Poloniex are down to 1600 BTC from >5k, while rates are stable at < 0.02% daily.

Looks like BTC are either withdrawn or dumped (maybe on margin) into ETH.

[nrd525]

I withdrew my BTC from Poloniex due to the low rates.

[nrd525]

Are there any other good tools like this for analyzing Bitcoin trends?  The recent decline in bull/bear flair ratio on reddit is interesting.  Fell from 25:1 to 15:1 in the past week, though it is still historically high.

https://coinsight.org

[nrd525]

BFX - 42.9 million swaps, 2.1 million available.

[nrd525]

The DAO hack sparked a strong sell-off in BTC as well.

http://www.coindesk.com/dao-attacked-code-issue-leads-60-million-ether-theft/

[Hunyadi]

The DAO hack sparked a strong sell-off in BTC as well.

http://www.coindesk.com/dao-attacked-code-issue-leads-60-million-ether-theft/

The sell-off was before the "hack" news.

[nrd525]

Thanks for the correction. You are right. The ETH sell-off was 3 -4 hours later.  That is very important because if ETH caused a BTC price decline, I think it is less serious for BTC. It would have shown that BTC is vulnerable to moves in other markets, but it would also be a bit too random.

On the other hand, if BTC decides to fall 11% on its own, that is the biggest fall we've seen so far in the price increase from the low 400s.  So it is a small sign that we're nearing the end of the short to medium term bull market.  Though it isn't too much bigger than the previous two declines of roughly 9% (714 to 656) and 10% (570 to 511) on BFX. And with all the new leverage available on BFX, I wouldn't be surprised if we'd see a fall that is more of a flash crash at some point.  They have market circuit breakers that may shut down the market if this happens.  Otherwise it could do something insane like crash to 100.

Very healthy bounce back (780 down to 702 - bounced up to 760).

[nrd525]

Some of the advice on this thread is pretty classic, like my second post from two years ago:

"Do not invest in any business that offers shares for bitcoins."

This is one piece of advice that I've followed too!  I'd generalize it to include all crypto-currencies (notably ETH).  If you want to invest money buy a stock. If you want to lend money, buy a bond (or use Bitfinex - but with caution).

[nrd525]

Reviewing all my gains and losses, it looks like I'm roughly up $18,000 on an investment of $25000 (or 72%) since 2013.  So around $28,500 in gains (capital and swaps), but $10,500 of capital (and Bitcoinica) losses.  Of course this includes a ton of unrealized capital gains.

On the other hand, the S&P is up 40% since Jan 1, 2013 - and another 7% if you include dividends.

[nrd525]

As the recent price increase was based on speculation about the halving rather than fundamentals, it is not surprising that it has been showing signs of weakness when we get a bit of bad news.  So it has been reacting negatively, and completely out of proportion, to troubles at Bitfinex and TheDAO.  Down to 660.

BFX USD swaps down to 33.5 million.

[nrd525]

We're now at a 20% price correction. Much larger than the previous ones which were around 10%.

[nrd525]

Brexit (UK leave EU) vote on Thursday.  That could be interesting.  "Remain" has a small lead.  PredictIt gives Remain a 75% chance based on the idea that most last-minute voters will swing to Remain.

https://www.predictit.org/Contract/784/Will-the-UK-vote-to-leave-the-EU-by-year-end-2016#data

[nrd525]

Unless Brexit wins, it is looking like the Bitcoin market is back to bear mode. Might even slowly fall to the support in the 400s.  Of course somebody could try another pump, but they will want to pump off a positive rumor - like segregated witness, MtGox liquidation putting money in people's pockets, a major new bitcoin business development, etc.

[nrd525]

Back when I sold over the past week or so, I ended up selling a total of 21 BTC in the upper 600s to 700s for an average of 727.  That is around half my BTC.  This is the biggest BTC trade I've made since buying at the Jan 2015 bottom.

Meanwhile the bear market is in full swing - $590.

[Sir_lagsalot]

I'm scared. Are you implying that $400 is pretty possible? A drop from $800 to $400 is me losing half my investment. What are your odds that its going to get down to a support level?

[jaredboice]

I'm scared. Are you implying that $400 is pretty possible? A drop from $800 to $400 is me losing half my investment. What are your odds that its going to get down to a support level?

If you're invested for at least 6 months to a year, I wouldn't worry about it at all.  Within the next couple months, anything goes.  Although if it goes into the $400s I doubt it would last long.  In my opinion we already entered bull phase.  There will be corrections on the way up

[jaredboice]

Unless Brexit wins, it is looking like the Bitcoin market is back to bear mode. Might even slowly fall to the support in the 400s.  Of course somebody could try another pump, but they will want to pump off a positive rumor - like segregated witness, MtGox liquidation putting money in people's pockets, a major new bitcoin business development, etc.

Brexit or no Brexit, Bitcoin is going to the moon in 6 months to a year at most.  We could continue down from here for a bit but we could also go right back up.  That's why I don't try to time the market.  I'm in it for the long haul and I just cost-average on the way up.  No worries here at all

[nrd525]

A surprise Brexit win gives Bitcoin a bit of a boost.  The pound fell from 1.50 to as low as 1.33 USD.