nrd525 Market Tracker

[Syke]

Not sure why people think selling over the counter doesn't affect market price.  Supply and Demand!  Does selling over the counter generate its own demand equal to the selling?
https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20180622_announcement_en.pdf

I think the effect is the same, just slower, since the trades aren't public.

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[LFC_Bitcoin]

Not sure why people think selling over the counter doesn't affect market price.  Supply and Demand!  Does selling over the counter generate its own demand equal to the selling?
https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20180622_announcement_en.pdf

I think the effect is the same, just slower, since the trades aren't public.

I think Syke is probably right there, it’s likely to be a more gradual decline

[nrd525]

Forecast of $3 billion of crypto scams in 2018.
https://www.coindesk.com/crypto-scams-cost-consumers-billions-dollars-year-ftc-says/

Wouldn't be surprised if this is on the low side and ignoring a lot of the ICOs that are in the grey area (if someone gets $100 million for an ICO / pets.com, fails, cashes out early with $20 million -- does it count?).   Also this ignores hacks.  Pump and dump groups might also be scamming people (inner circle vs the suckers who get late notice and end up bag holding).

Does anyone know the underlying research on this number?  I'd be fascinated to get more details.

[nrd525]

Doesn't look like the sort of thing that happens at the bottom of a bear market:
https://www.coindesk.com/andreessen-horowitz-launched-300-million-crypto-fund/

[nrd525]

Does anyone know how to do statistical analysis of text for positive / negative (or other) emotion?    It'd be amazing to compare Bitcoin Reddit (or maybe BitcoinMarkets) over various time periods and a great tool for identifying the bottom of the bear market.

[nrd525]

While BTC is hanging out at its 2018 all time low, half or more of the alt-coins are below their all-time-low (ETH being a notable exception).

[nrd525]

Has there been an increase in these pumps where it goes straight up and then holds the new price level?  If so, when did this start happening?

[TheQuin]

It did a similar thing in April and then fell away again in May. The difference is that in May it held just above the Feb low and this time it tested it and briefly made a new low. I'd say it is too early to know if that is significant but there hasn't been much volume, so probably not.

[nrd525]

https://www.coindesk.com/over-half-of-icos-fail-within-4-months-suggests-us-study/

I wonder if it is cumulative?  Eg. 1/4 with last 8 months, 1/8 last 12 months...

[nrd525]

BTC up $700 in 2 hours on no news.  No tethers printed (so far as I can tell). Biggest two day rise since April.

[nrd525]

I guess the Tethers were printed around July 12.  Though we still don't have (significantly) more Tethers than July 1.


I only knew a fraction of the cases of hacking of MtGox. 
https://blog.bitmex.com/the-june-2011-flash-crash-to-0-01/

[nrd525]

This healthy bounce from 6k to 8.2k (now) is looking good. 

I also like how bitcoin's market share is at the year ATH (47.5%). 

If this is on rumors of a bitcoin ETF being approved it is interesting that the GBTC premium last time we neared a potential approval fell to near 0%.  Whereas now the GBTC premium is still very high (48% -- https://www.neotechdevs.com/gbtc/).  With an ETF the demand for GBTC should decrease and the premium fall to near 0% (unless there is another use case for it or if there is some weird manipulation).


Are these ponzi/gambling games the biggest Dapps on Ether (bigger than CryptoKitties)?  I skimmed it and didn't quite understand how the schemes worked.  Making your scam needlessly complex to fool users is a classic ponzi tactic.
https://www.coindesk.com/scam-or-be-scammed-ponzi-games-are-breaking-out-on-ethereum/

[nrd525]

http://charts.woobull.com

[Samarkand]

http://charts.woobull.com

Thank you for sharing this link.

I was pretty surprised to see how low the Bitcoin velocity has become:
http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-velocity/

If I read the chart correctly, the Bitcoin velocity is near an all-time low and
the only period where the velocity was at a similar level was in 2010 (apart
from a short period of time in 2014). This would imply that BTC has drifted even further away from being
used as a payment mechanism. On the one hand you could view this
as a sign that Bitcoin has failed if you believe that Bitcoin was intended to be
a P2P Electronic Cash system. On the other hand you could also interpret this
development as extremely bullish, because this would confirm that Bitcoin
is moving towards a system for the settlement of high-value transactions while other
use cases are increasingly pushed to second-layer solutions.

Additionally, I would have expected an increase in Bitcoin velocity due to SegWit,
transaction batching and other measures that have lowered the transaction fees
in the last few months. But again the linked chart defies this expectation.

[nrd525]

I got the chart from watching Tone Vay's interview of Willy Woo.  Lots of stuff that can be skipped (both of them are generally Bitcoin maximalists, though Willy Woo has made some money on alt-coins and ICOs). Unfortunately a wide-ranging conversation that didn't focus as much on the NVT as I'd have liked.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6BIT_u0rbco

The NVT ratio (http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-nvt-ratio/) and NVT signal (http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-nvt-signal/) have Bitcoin overvalued by about as bad as they ever indicate.  Willy Woo says he has sold almost all his BTC and is waiting for the dip.  

On the NVT charts, we're also looking similar to July/August 2014.

I think it's a moving average that includes both the past 14 days and the future 14 days - which makes it less of a predictor!  Or perhaps treat it like it has a two week lag?  

Lightning Networks should make this analysis harder.  I also wonder about the impact of the Bitcoin Cash fork.  That probably caused some people to move their funds, but might have been washed out on the indicators by the bull market.
 

[nrd525]

According to CoinMarketCap Tethers decreased from 2.7 billion to 2.4 billion over the past three weeks. This is the second time that Tether market cap has decreased by a significant amount (last time was around May 12, 2018.)  While this is bearish news short to medium term, it would be amazing (in terms of Tether rumors) if Tether redeemed a billion dollars.  Though if they are redeeming it with entries in an exchange's database, it might not prove anything.

Bitcoin dominance at 48.2%. Alts tanking. Ethereum testing its 2018 all time low.

Hope to see everyone at 3k by the end of the year =)

Housing markets might be cooling off (though locally in my neighborhood things are still heated - someone remodels a house on the block, sells for 650k, then the new owner(s) does *additional* renovations -- including paving over their small front yard with cement (is this evidence of dumb money buying the top?).

Trade war, overheated economy, and higher interest rates could trigger a recession.

BFX swap rates suck (< 7% APR on USD).

[nrd525]

Most altcoins below their YTD low.  Bitcoin at 6300 (recent low of 6128).

Just skimmed the local Philadelphia housing market report and we're down to 0% growth over the past year.  Two quarters ago we had 11% annual growth, and for the past 4 years we had a robust market with 5-10% annual growth.  Sales and prices are still high, but we're looking like the housing market could be at its peak and might plateau here for a couple years until the next recession (Assuming Amazon doesn't put their second HQ in our city - which is a 1/20 chance).

If you are brave enough to hold altcoins you might start seeing some great swap rates if/when the shorts pile on.  Though currently the LTC swap rate is a mere 0.01%/day on BFX.

[nrd525]

Good overview.
https://medium.com/@tuurdemeester/bitcoin-we-dont-expect-new-highs-in-2018-97e6a7a385f7

[nrd525]

BFX removing US corporate customers around August 15:

https://support.bitfinex.com/hc/en-us/articles/115003461254-US-Residents-Frequently-Asked-Questions

If swap rates are higher it'd be worth incorporating an offshore LLC, but currently they suck.  Though I'm not sure if the terms even allow for off-shore LLCs.  It sounds like you need to have $10 million in assets and they need to approve you at their disgression. But how do they know that your offshore LLC is controlled by a US person(s)?  Maybe the verification process which I think requires that you reveal the name/address of your LLC directors gives it away.

[TheQuin]

Maybe the verification process which I think requires that you reveal the name/address of your LLC directors gives it away.

Some tax havens require the directors to be locals meaning many people offer their services and are making a nice little income for signing a few pieces of paper. It might just be a coincidence that it makes it very difficult to find out who the real owners of the company are.