nrd525 Market Tracker

[Hunyadi]

Though I saw an interesting post on Reddit from someone who said they were a big miner and could actually handle 8 GB (not a typo) blocks - now.  The transaction fees would be enough to pay for their costs.

Do you have a link?

[nrd525]

No link. I think it was reddit.  So either Bitcoin, BitcoinMarkets, or BitcoinUncensored.  It was buried in a very long discussion on something.

[nrd525]

BTC price has recovered a lot. LTC is still looking bearish (and the fall in Chinese GDP growth to 4% or possibly lower should reinforce this).

I'm wondering if the CoinWallet.eu September network "stress test" is going to trigger another round of dumping?
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/21739/bitcoin-businesses-take-steps-prepare-coinwallets-september-stress-test/

[nrd525]

Welcome back to the $220 to $240 channel.

[nrd525]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2015-09-01/blythe-masters-tells-banks-the-blockchain-changes-everything

[nrd525]

Very puzzling that LTC hash rate is only down 10% since the block reward halving.  Especially as the price is continuing to fall. Maybe a lot of miners are speculating and not acting rationally (eg. mining when they could more cheaply buy the LTC).  LTC miners might act less rationally than BTC miners - where it is centralized big business.

Is there any major news on the coinwallet.eu spam test?  I think it is ongoing, but not having an impact. Did miners blacklist IPs to stop it, or what?  I heard they were using relatively large fees (0.0001 to 0.0007 btc).

[RoadTrain]

Is there any major news on the coinwallet.eu spam test?  I think it is ongoing, but not having an impact. Did miners blacklist IPs to stop it, or what?  I heard they were using relatively large fees (0.0001 to 0.0007 btc).

Looks like most major pools have implemented some sort of filtering. Spam transactions are very slowly making it into the blockchain.
I'm actually not very happy about that -- it shows that miners can and will filter some transactions deemed illegitimate under certain curcumstances, that is a threat to Bitcoin's fungibility.

[nrd525]

Stress Test / attack starts on Sept 10:
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/21842/coinwallet-begins-pre-test-bitcoin-network-schedules-largest-stress-test-begin-september-10/

[nrd525]

So are we in a 220 to 245 channel or what?  

Did the blockchain size debate die out?

I'm not sure about the impact of the Bitcoin=commodity ruling in the US.

Bitpay folding is bad news.  Though I guess it is to be expected that the majority of Bitcoin ventures (like any startup venture) will fail.

The very lukewarm economic growth (especially outside of the US), combined with hitting the limits on quantitative easing - might make for difficult times for would be bubbles like Bitcoin.

Still waiting for Litecoin to plummet when the ponzi operators cash out.  

Having fun watching Ruby. Up by a factor of 100 since its lows!  Will it fall 90-95% in an hour when it crashes?

Also was amused that Trendon Shavers plead guilty as I was an early detractor on his ponzi.  Surprised that it took so long.  Is there any evidence that he hasn't spent all the coins (and that there'd be a large auction of them)?  My recollection (especially from a chat log with his ex) was that he was living the high-life and spending it.

[nrd525]

Ooh, we broke out of the 220 to 245 channel into the low 250s.

Purse.io got hacked (still waiting to hear back from support about my tiny bit of BTC that I cannot access because my account password was compromised and they disabled password resets).

It's interesting that LTC is matching the BTC percent increase, instead of its normal tendency to have much larger variation.  Possibly the longterm LTC downward trend is intact.

Global economy commodities *might* have bottomed out, which might actually be helpful for the general economy as it will avoid bankruptcies and help countries (like Japan) that are struggling with deflation.  I suspect the boom/bust commodity market is very harmful for the economy.  Global stock markets are having a bounce, but will it hold?  I think China still has another 20% to fall.

[nrd525]

Bitcoin at $315. Litcoin is finally following suit after being stable at $3, and now is at $3.80.  Looks like someone is taking advantage of the BTC increase to do a LTC pump (my Litecoin short is now back at a loss).

The bitcoin increase is probably too large and too quick to be sustainable.

[nrd525]

Bitcoin is acting bubbly.  $18 or almost 6% difference between BTC-e and Bitfinex.  

OkCoin quarterlies at $378 -- compare to $334 at Bitfinex.

The weird thing about this bubble is that there hasn't been major setbacks.  We used to crash 20-30% during the 2013 bubble.  So it is looking like the early stage of a much larger bubble which is probably causing it to go up even more.  

Volume on Bitfinex looks great.  Bitfinex has another $1 million USD to lend out, and could easily lend out $2-$3 million/week (for the next 10+ weeks, if not forever) for margin longs if interest rates stay above 0.1%/day.

I'm really happy for BTC.  Not so happy that I'm still shorting LTC and that could do literally *anything*.

Fundamentals are weak.

[nrd525]

USD/non-futures price is about the same as my last post.  Slightly down. The Okcoin quarterly futures premium over BFX is down to $20.

The BFX premium over BTCe is down from $18 to $12.

Okcoin Litcoin futures still have a large premium over BFX (80 cents or slightly over 20%), but it is smaller than it was at the peak.

Price convergence is an indicator of more rational market activity.  So we're less bubbly, but still pretty bubbly.

[Fakhoury]

Thanks for the update nrd.

I'm extremely happy for BTC as well, but doesn't market bubbles harm BTC more than benefiting it ?

What do you think ?

[Dilla]

Thanks for the update nrd.

I'm extremely happy for BTC as well, but doesn't market bubbles harm BTC more than benefiting it ?

What do you think ?

Being the early stages, I don't think Bitcoin with have your typical organic growth until major, major adoption. We are in an exponential growth phase, so bubbles will happen. It may take a few more bubbles for it to find its true price before great stability.
This isn't bad, in my opinion. Just ride the waves of exponential growth, KAWABUNGA!

[Fakhoury]

Thanks for the update nrd.

I'm extremely happy for BTC as well, but doesn't market bubbles harm BTC more than benefiting it ?

What do you think ?

Being the early stages, I don't think Bitcoin with have your typical organic growth until major, major adoption. We are in an exponential growth phase, so bubbles will happen. It may take a few more bubbles for it to find its true price before great stability.
This isn't bad, in my opinion. Just ride the waves of exponential growth, KAWABUNGA!

What you said makes sense, I'm not against exp. growth of Bitcoin, I'm just afraid it might damage it hard.

[nrd525]

Exponential growth is both damaging and helpful (lots of publicity - but it goes very bad after the crash).  I expect future "bubbles" to be a lot smaller than previous ones due to maturity/price discovery and greater number of shorting options. So no more 1000% growth like each of the two bubbles in 2013.  In our case reaching $600 in mid-2016 would be more than enough.

[brg444]

Exponential growth is both damaging and helpful (lots of publicity - but it goes very bad after the crash).  I expect future "bubbles" to be a lot smaller than previous ones due to maturity/price discovery and greater number of shorting options. So no more 1000% growth like each of the two bubbles in 2013.  In our case reaching $600 in mid-2016 would be more than enough.

That is counter-intuitive to the dynamics of this market.

Bitcoin is anything but mature at this point and price discovery is frankly not accurate.

The amount of money watching from the sidelines is orders of magnitude above what it was during previous bubble.

Don't get it twisted, the mother of all bubbles has still yet to come.

[inca]

Exponential growth is both damaging and helpful (lots of publicity - but it goes very bad after the crash).  I expect future "bubbles" to be a lot smaller than previous ones due to maturity/price discovery and greater number of shorting options. So no more 1000% growth like each of the two bubbles in 2013.  In our case reaching $600 in mid-2016 would be more than enough.

That is counter-intuitive to the dynamics of this market.

Bitcoin is anything but mature at this point and price discovery is frankly not accurate.

The amount of money watching from the sidelines is orders of magnitude above what it was during previous bubble.

Don't get it twisted, the mother of all bubbles has still yet to come.

On this we agree if nothing else!

[nrd525]

Maturity is in degrees. Would you disagree that Bitcoin is more mature than in 2013?  The proof is in the volatility which has decreased.

One of the things we've learned is that Bitcoin's use in regular online commerce (eg. outside of drugs and gambling) is likely to be tiny.  Merchants care more about their customers than the charge backs.  As such, the people who pick a value for bitcoin based on the size of the online market economy are completely unrealistic.

It is possible that there is more money of people watching Bitcoin from the sidelines. But watchers aren't going to invest unless there are some real use cases beyond speculation, gambling, and drugs.