nrd525 Market Tracker

[STT]

People think alt coins too high is when they are above zero in too many cases, if they are used they wont be that low possibly ever.    Not while transaction costs (speed etc)on Bitcoin are any discouragement to use, alt coins are useful in that alternative so thats all they need to continue.    It might be they have peaked during 2017 in exchange value to BTC but good development and progress in protocols is always possible and thats a good thing for crypto in general

I must have seen this thread before at some point but it wasnt on my list so I've missed all these predictions and helpful posts.  

-fascinated with statistics for 25 years

I studied statistics and probability also many years ago and its applicable to just about every other subject in considering possible outcomes.    It gets a bad name and TA in general when people forget its never stating a certainty and stop loss is always needed.


Any significant profits probably need to be handled by a business setup.   Personal taxes suck unless you have favourable gambling laws then so long as its not your main income its much simpler to handle via that route.   I really dont think we go straight up, not when the 6000 area was such massive support previously.    Its reinforced concrete with steel bar in comparison to most levels, just passing through without drama seems improbable.

I'm thinking we'll bottom at around $1900-$2500.  Could goes as low as $1000.

For extremes I consider the USD and treasury bond market as quite relevant.   Accuracy is added by contrast and its the other half of the see-saw.  The BTC low shown now matches a change in sentiment from the FED which is always big news.    My big watch is a lower high on the dollar index and if that occurs then sure we'll ahead full for a higher BTC price generally over years.
   I think thats a genuine influence on price direction and these big low calls, obviously USD massively outweighs BTC and its much less probable to get this low or move through standard deviations from the moving averages unless pushed by USD strength.   I think we see a softer dollar generally, its politics so its hard to call but I hear zero debate on reforming a hard dollar policy, running a fiscal surplus, etc

[nrd525]

The problem with the altcoin market cap (or share of total crypto market cap) is that it doesn't take into account the growing number of altcoins.  What is the solution to this that would let you compare altcoin vs bitcoin performance?  For instance, you might take the top 10 altcoins in 2015 and see how their share has changed vs Bitcoin.  And then do this every year, or even every day and take a weighted average.

Pychologically with altcoins you might have a distraction effect.  SHINY NEW ALTCOIN/ICO which goes 100x (and you either miss out on or get a small piece of the action) makes you forget about all the money you lost on xyz altcoin.  LOL at the Beyond Meat stock market IPO that went 3x today.

Most altcoins that are heading to zero are going to take a very long time.  I'm more claiming that the majority are going to fall 70-85%, and much fewer will "die" and fall 95%-99%.  Ooh, I wonder how many altcoins have gone completely delisted?  For instance, it looks like Bitconnect Coin isn't listed anywhere.

[nrd525]

3.6% US unemployment. Lowest in 40 years.  Wage growth highest since during the recession (are wages so stick that they stay at 3% up until we hit 10% unemployment as happenned in the last recession according to the graph I saw?)

Haven't sold my 1-3 btc (yet?).

Timing: do property and stock (and presumably also crypto) bubbles burst typically 1 year to 18 months before the actual recession?  If so the bitcoin bear market is early, but I'd be expecting property and stock to go bear soon.

[nrd525]

$1 billion tokens in a bear market!  Maybe preparing for a bull market, looking at the Binance tokens (doing very well), or desperate for cash.

https://www.coindesk.com/not-a-white-paper-marketing-document-details-1-billion-bitfinex-token-sale

[figmentofmyass]

$1 billion tokens in a bear market!  Maybe preparing for a bull market, looking at the Binance tokens (doing very well), or desperate for cash.

https://www.coindesk.com/not-a-white-paper-marketing-document-details-1-billion-bitfinex-token-sale

i'm going with "desperate for cash".

the NYAG exposed the bitfinex/tether insolvency. $850m in bitfinex customer funds had been seized for involvement with money laundering cases. bitfinex opened a "line of credit" with tether (secured only by dividend-bearing shares in ifinex) to cover the shortfall.

now that the NYAG put their insolvency in the spotlight, they are scrambling to repeat what they did in 2016 after they were hacked: issue tokens to cover the insolvency. this time, i see no signs of offering shares in ifinex---they are only offering a revamped BFX token which offers no dividends. the tokens are only worth trading discounts (like BNB) and will be bought back eventually as BFX tokens were.

they're trying to replicate what binance did, but you'd have to be crazy to finance bitfinex's debt for nothing more than trading discounts. they are doing this at a time when regulators are seizing money from and filing court orders against bitfinex......

[nrd525]

Just realized that coinbase removed all my limit orders that I made last year going down to $1000. Fortunately I didn't miss out on any trades.  But I didn't receive any notification for this and it could easily have cost me tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars (if bitcoin falls to 2k and then has another bull cycle).

Apparently they did this for everyone. What idiots!  

Sold 0.5 btc at 5695.  Plan is to rebuy at 3000-3400.
Sold 0.5 btc at 5750 (bullish signal!)
Sold 0.7 at 5920.

[nrd525]

Is bitcoinwisdom.io not working so well?  Missing candles...

Bitcoin market share 58% - highest since December 2017!

My record on buying the bottom (or shorting to it) is much better than selling at the top.  Probably because I'm a pessimist.  I'm wondering if I should sell more if we do a crazy run up (like 10k), and if so, when.  I'd like to wait until Nov 20-24 this year to pay the longterm capital gains rate.

Though if we make a run at 10k, right now it looks like it could be a fast one (say 30-45 days).

[nrd525]

Coinbase at 6290, Bitfinex at 6370 - premium is almost gone.   I think it was as high as $400 or 8% earlier.  Are they actually letting people withdraw USD?  How dare they!

[nrd525]

Down from $1 billion market cap to under $1 million.  24 hour volume: $57.
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/auroracoin/

By contrast, some mainstream alts like Dogecoin and Augur have a long way to fall.

[nrd525]

Bitcoin bouncing off 7980 twice on Coinbase. 60.1% dominance.  
Sold 0.3 btc at 7890.

I need some sell targets.

Gnosis crashed and burned.  I recall it was one of the two main prediction markets.  But Augur at least has a functional system (or semi-functional, very few users and very annoying to use when I tried it).  Is Gnosis doing anything?
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/gnosis-gno/

I think there is some evidence of bitcoin being extra weird.  So I don't expect normal rules/guidelines to apply.  Eg. we might just crash to 3k and pulverize all the resistance along the way, and then break to a new low of 2k.  Or we might make a run for 10k.

[illyiller]

I think there is some evidence of bitcoin being extra weird.  So I don't expect normal rules/guidelines to apply.  Eg. we might just crash to 3k and pulverize all the resistance along the way, and then break to a new low of 2k.  Or we might make a run for 10k.

Given the recent rally, I'm surprised at the number of people who still think we're going to $3k or lower again. It looks to me like we're taking the $10k route.

Masterluc thinks we'll spike to $10k then test the $6k level. That sounds plausible to me.

[nrd525]

1) all or most of the analysts thought there would be resistance at 6k

2) all or most of the analysts are ignoring global economic conditions and the upcoming recession (and also bitcoin search trends and the lack significant use for transactions)

3) lots of hype about adoption from Microsoft and Ebay (seriously?) and the Consensus conference

4) if you use crypto for payments (like buying coffee), you are legally obliged to declare capital gains or losses in the US and presumably most other countries. I doubt governments will make an exception for small or micropayments as you could just do a large number of them and save yourself a ton of money on capital gains taxes.  Nobody is talking about this, but this makes the Lightning Network 100 times less potentially useful in many countries.

Sold 0.2 at 8120, 0.2 at 8220, and 0.2 at 8320.

Was there a cause of the $200-$500 pump in 2015?

Normally I'd say the higher we rise the further we fall, but there is a decent chance we don't get the full retracement to 4k and that we'd stabilize say at 5-6k, slowly grind down and then take a lot longer (like 6-12 months) to reach the bottom of this bear market at 2k-3k.  This is a highly speculative call.

[exstasie]

all or most of the analysts are ignoring global economic conditions and the upcoming recession (and also bitcoin search trends and the lack significant use for transactions)

The upcoming recession.....what's your timeline on this?

lots of hype about adoption from Microsoft and Ebay (seriously?) and the Consensus conference

I think there was more hype about Bakkt's announcement of physically-settled futures launching in July and the news about Flexa enabling the spending of crypto at Starbucks and other major retailers.

More importantly though, we keep seeing the market ignoring bearish news. The Bitfinex news, the Binance hack. That's not indicative of a bear market.

if you use crypto for payments (like buying coffee), you are legally obliged to declare capital gains or losses in the US and presumably most other countries. I doubt governments will make an exception for small or micropayments as you could just do a large number of them and save yourself a ton of money on capital gains taxes.

There is a bill in committee that would make gains realized in this way exempt up to $600/year. I'm not sure how likely it is to pass though: https://www.coindesk.com/us-lawmakers-file-bill-to-exempt-cryptocurrencies-from-securities-laws

[nrd525]

Recession guess timeline 1-2 years.

Do you need to declare capital gains on foreign currencies (eg. if the exchange rate differs by anything since when you purchased it) when you are visiting other countries?  Or is bitcoin different because it is mostly treated as a commodity?

So on the one hand ignoring the bear news means we're in a bull market (buy signal), but on the other hand it means people are being stupid (sell signal).

Without an organized pro-crypto lobby there seems to be no reason for a relatively reasonable bill like that to pass (opposition from crypto skeptics, loss of tax revenue, banks, etc).

[nrd525]

Ha I pulled my sell orders (8.4k - 8.9k) before the flash crash.  6.2k on bitstamp.  6.6k on bitstamp/coinbase, 7k on bitfinex.

Normally Tether fears end up rebouncing back to normal. This time it looks like the flash crash was much larger than normal due to general sentiment that we were overdue for a pullback.  The rally is still on very thin water.

Bitfinex issues $1 billion in LEO tokens to make up for the $850 million missing.  Makes them tradable. Sure it works if we're in an insane bull market. Will it work if we plunge to 2-3k?

[figmentofmyass]

Ha I pulled my sell orders (8.4k - 8.9k) before the flash crash.  6.2k on bitstamp.  6.6k on bitfinex/coinbase.

Normally Tether fears end up rebouncing back to normal. This time it looks like the flash crash was much larger than normal due to general sentiment that we were overdue for a pullback.  The rally is still on very thin water.

most of the market stopped at the $6600 area which was not a totally unexpected pullback level. looks like the whole dump was driven by a bitstamp whale dumping into a thin book. (stamp dumped to $6178)

i suspect the market will consolidate and push higher after a solid shakeout.

Bitfinex issues $1 billion in LEO tokens to make up for the $850 million missing.  Makes them tradable. Sure it works if we're in an insane bull market. Will it work if we plunge to 2-3k?

it worked in 2016 with BFX tokens. i think 2016 might be a good parallel for where the market cycle is too. i really don't expect a return to $3k.

[nrd525]

Centralized stable coins (with zero capital gains/losses reporting requirements) might crush Bitcoin as a payment method:
https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-now-lets-merchants-accept-payments-in-the-usdc-stablecoin

I remain very puzzled as to why we haven't replaced credit cards with at least ACH or a similar near zero cost method in the US.

[figmentofmyass]

Centralized stable coins (with zero capital gains/losses reporting requirements) might crush Bitcoin as a payment method:
https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-now-lets-merchants-accept-payments-in-the-usdc-stablecoin

what's the point, from a consumer perspective?

people hold BTC as an investment, store-of-value, etc and i've seen data from bitpay that suggests it's spikes in capital gains that induces BTC spending to rise......otherwise, as expected, people are holding their coins rather than spending them. that's gresham's law for ya!

so why would they want to hold USDC? what's the appeal over credit cards?

I remain very puzzled as to why we haven't replaced credit cards with at least ACH or a similar near zero cost method in the US.

1. poor people depend on the credit---bank transfers don't offer a line of credit
2. credit card incentives like cash back, frequent flyer miles, etc

crypto is amazing for merchants but it offers nothing for consumers. so banks are left competing for what consumers actually want---access to credit and incentives/discounts.

[jademaxsuy]

I think you are earning a lot compared to your losses knowing that you have been here from the past years where bitcoin has just started. It is a nice thing to know that someone like you had made this far with bitcoin. I have only knew few that are being here from the time where bitcoin is not that known to all users around the world. Anyway, I just do not clearly understand why you posted this thread in tracking the btc market. It is better to present a graphical image to easily draw a conclusion on the market price movement for btc.

[nrd525]

>>so why would they want to hold USDC? what's the appeal over credit cards?


Discounts at the merchant level. 

I'm probably biased as I'm morally opposed to credit cards. I only recently switched from using debit to a card with cash back.  The credit cards are brutal for retail (notably grocery stores that have very slim profit margins).



Bitfinex's $1 billion dollars of $1 tokens are now trading at $1.12.  Are they planning to buy them back or just use them for discounts?  If they buy them back will they do it at the market rate?  
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/unus-sed-leo/