nrd525 Market Tracker

[nrd525]

The BFX token value is gradually moving up.  It is again near its peak of 45 cents.

Yet another way of valuating Bitfinex is to look at Kraken which recently issued 0.5% equity for $100k -- for a valuation of $20 million.  Then if Bitfinex has 1.8 times the volume (last 30 days, only looking at BTC), it is worth $36 million.  Now if it owes $72 million, the tokens would be worth 50 cents. 

Of course it remains to be seen how much volume Bitfinex will lose once this plays out.  And a 0.5% equity share might not be a good indicator of market price.  Though revenue stream analysis tends to lead towards similar valuations (Eg. Bitfinex could pay it all off, but it might take 10-20 years).  Perhaps the biggest unknown is whether the all-exchanges Bitcoin trading volume will grow (in USD) and a lot of that will depend upon business development and proportional BTC price increase. 

...
Meanwhile, I think Bitfinex should issue a BFX token mining contract. Akin to their former TH1 mining contract, it doesn't even have to do any mining to be profitable - it would be profitable by you being able to lend it to people who would make money shorting it.  Bitfinex could make money off people manipulating the price of the BFX mining contract.  The only people to lose would be suckers who didn't follow what happened with the TH1 contract.  It would also allow for people to analyze the risks associated with hacking - through a market based system.  Libertarians should love that.  Hackers, aka BFX token miners, could offer contracts and people could invest in them or short them.

[Hunyadi]

Yet another way of valuating Bitfinex is to look at Kraken which recently issued 0.5% equity for $100k -- for a valuation of $20 million.  Then if Bitfinex has 1.8 times the volume (last 30 days, only looking at BTC), it is worth $36 million.  Now if it owes $72 million, the tokens would be worth 50 cents. 

  Does this calculation make any sense? BFX Omni-tokens doesn't represent whole Bitfinex value.

[nrd525]

I disagree.  I think that that the loss exceeds the value of the company.  We'll have a better idea of if this is true, when they release financial statements.  But so far it looks like it would take them 10-15 years to pay back the tokens at current income rates (assuming a medium level of expenses) and by that time there is a good chance that BFX is hacked again and/or has lost market share.

As it would be hard to liquidate BFX, creditors may expect to get more money from the current BFX token method.  However there is also greater uncertainty as the company could completely fail or Bitcoins could increase sufficiently in value that the company's value could exceed that of the loss.

In related news they issued their first buy back of 1.812% of the tokens.  I predicted that they would use buybacks of a proportional nature like this (if not here, then it was on reddit).  The price spiked to 0.57 which may be getting a bit high.  Though I'm still holding.  I want to see what the financial statement looks like.

[nrd525]

I'm buying a KeepKey (Bitcoin hardware wallet). Should have done this a long time ago.  Good for holding and probably pretty easy to use for all of your transactions.  And I don't do that many transactions.

[nrd525]

I'm thinking the BFX token price run-up to the conversion of debt into shares (or pseudo-shares?) could be a good time to sell.  Though you never know how crazy people can get when they hear about stock being issued in a Bitcoin related company - and we still haven't seen the financials!  I'd be very surprised if it goes over 80 cents.

In other news, I'm probably joining a PredictIt trading group. If you are trading on PredictIt or want to start (and notably think you can outsmart the other 90% of traders - and are capable of great insights) - message me. Or if you ever just want to chat about PredictIt - you can find me on the Reddit, by PM, or by email. 

[nrd525]

BFX tokens spike to 63.4.  Currently at 62.  Apparently they are doing an announcement by/on Sept 15.

[nrd525]

Poloniex BTC swap rates have been decent recently. Around 0.06%/day.  I'm happy they are staying high even after the latest alt-coin bubble is over.

[nrd525]

I'm baffled by the new Bitfinex tokens (RRT) having a current market value of 12 cents.  I'd value them closer to 0-1 cents as the probability of Bitfinex recovering the stolen bitcoins seems to be close to zero (unless it was an inside job), and if they do a partial recovery they first have to pay of the BFX token holders (like me!).  Interestingly the BFX tokens fell 1-2 cents after the RRT tokens were introduced (probably competing for attention from the same speculators).

Also - without major fundamental shifts, the BTC price is on the rise again.  I guess continued business development, love of the blockchain, and maybe Segregated Witness are helping.  Personally, I'd like to buy in (as I only have 14 BTC, after selling half and then losing/getting converted to BFX tokens 36%of the remaining ones in the BFX hack) - but maybe I'll wait for the next block size / developer fight to drive the price down.  Also, I continue to do well on PredictIt so I've been focused on that.

The US economy is going to have a recession eventually and the global economy is a bit fragile. I could see Trump triggering a recession (with spending cuts, trade wars, or even actual wars), but his odds of winning have recently fallen to 15-20%.  US household median income growth was very strong in 2015 (see the American Community Survey), and at some point the economy will "overheat".

It turns out that many people, or at least major BFX token owners, disagree with me regarding the BFX corporate valuation and a lot of people have converted their tokens into equity (30-40%?).

[nrd525]

Why are RRT tokens trading for 14 cents?  Where are people discussing this valuation?  (I've seen a couple comments on Reddit, but not much).

[RoadTrain]

Why are RRT tokens trading for 14 cents?

Maybe people think that because the company introduced these tokens, it believes that there's significant chance stolen money will be recovered?

Otherwise it's just another scam.

[nrd525]

RRT tokens down to 10 cents =)

Poloniex BTC lending rates are down again (0.028%/day - not worth it).

[ArdiPrabowo]

if you say arbitrage bitfinex to coinbase can take profit 25 dollar/bitcoin
your calculate is withdraw fiat money in fee wire transfer or not, because fee wire transfer is big so this only profit 25dollar/bitcoin is only pay fee wire transfer still is not enough
this now where your arbitage can take profit,

[nrd525]

I don't believe in Elliott Waves, but for those who do - doesn't it look like we're ready for a third breakout wave around December which could have us hit $1200?

The fact that other people use them can make them meaningful.  Also, in the US, we could see a stable Clinton government elected - and possibly even pass a budget (instead of a continuing resolution) - which could be good for the economy.  Though that might take a Dem majority in the house which is unlikely.

[nrd525]

So I'm sure the technical aspects of Zero Cash are fascinating.  That said, it also suffers from an overdose of your typical alt-coin hype.

Coindesk has a financial interest in this (which they disclose at the bottom of the article):
http://www.coindesk.com/investors-going-crazy-new-digital-currency-called-zcash/

My general advice on alt-coins, really without exception, is to stay away.

Is Bitcoin going up because of Segregated Witness?  I'm thinking I should buy more once there is the next round of developer drama.

[Fakhoury]

So I'm sure the technical aspects of Zero Cash are fascinating.  That said, it also suffers from an overdose of your typical alt-coin hype.

Coindesk has a financial interest in this (which they disclose at the bottom of the article):
http://www.coindesk.com/investors-going-crazy-new-digital-currency-called-zcash/

My general advice on alt-coins, really without exception, is to stay away.

Is Bitcoin going up because of Segregated Witness?  I'm thinking I should buy more once there is the next round of developer drama.

Most probably it will go up brother once SegWit is locked-in.

[nrd525]

That ZCrash (Zcash price crash).  LOL.  Down 80% today, down 80% yesterday.

Also, whenever Bitfinex adds a new coin it tends to crash.  The sad thing about this is that it speaks to the gullibility / poor decision making skills on their part.  That is probably a big downside of startup culture - too much optimism.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

So I'm sure the technical aspects of Zero Cash are fascinating.  That said, it also suffers from an overdose of your typical alt-coin hype.

Coindesk has a financial interest in this (which they disclose at the bottom of the article):
http://www.coindesk.com/investors-going-crazy-new-digital-currency-called-zcash/

My general advice on alt-coins, really without exception, is to stay away.

Is Bitcoin going up because of Segregated Witness?  I'm thinking I should buy more once there is the next round of developer drama.

Coindesk have got a lot worse & more obvious with their pumping & glorifying of shit coins. I used to enjoy reading their site but not any more.

Re: your last sentence - buy now not once things are confirmed.

[nrd525]

Trump's election win caused a brief 4-5% increase which stabilized at 2%.  That's a bit different from the stock market where the Dow futures were down 900, but then by the time the Dow opened it actually went up.  Weird.  It's possible that Trump could go with high spending (defense and infrastructure), low taxes, low interest rates, and/or trade wars (or more likely threats of trade wars) -- all of which could hurt the US dollar and help Bitcoin.

Also - I made a killing on PredictIt.org on the election night (even though trades were delayed by as much as 20 minutes!).  I tell my friends to stay away from the website as 90% of people will lose money, but as you are fellow Bitcoiners, you should take the most of this opportunity to engage in rampant speculation on events that you know little about!

More seriously, if you are the kind of person who won a contest estimating the number of candies in a jar at age six, bought world almanacs as a teen, have developed statistical models of board games for fun, have been quantifying/estimating everything and are able to see beyond your political ideology - PM me. You might have what it takes to make a killing on the website and I'd like to form a group of people to trade ideas and build models.  Unfortunately most of my real-life friends aren't statistical geniuses...

[nrd525]

More bad alt-coin performance as LTC continues to do badly compared to BTC and ETH is dropping.

The big question is are we going to break 800 USD and have a crazy bull-market for Christmas?

[Fakhoury]

More bad alt-coin performance as LTC continues to do badly compared to BTC and ETH is dropping.

The big question is are we going to break 800 USD and have a crazy bull-market for Christmas?

I think so brother, what do you think ?