nrd525 Market Tracker

[nrd525]

Bitfinex premium up to $80 over Coinbase.  Nice price surge to $1320 (only a bit short of the ATH 1336).  

The market is taking Bitfinex's troubles in stride - very bullish.  

Though I'm concerned that China is not keeping up.  At 7300 yuan, the Chinese markets are $150-$200 below the US ones.  Does China have currency controls designed to stop inflows? If not, it should be easy to bring money in, buy BTC, move the BTC out, sell the BTC and repeat.

Update: Chinese exchanges don't let you withdraw BTC. What a mess!

[york780]

Bitfinex premium up to $80 over Coinbase.  Nice price surge to $1320 (only a bit short of the ATH 1336).  

The market is taking Bitfinex's troubles in stride - very bullish.  

Though I'm concerned that China is not keeping up.  At 7300 yuan, the Chinese markets are $150-$200 below the US ones.  Does China have currency controls designed to stop inflows? If not, it should be easy to bring money in, buy BTC, move the BTC out, sell the BTC and repeat.

Update: Chinese exchanges don't let you withdraw BTC. What a mess!

Great work man. Its a big mess indeed. About to escalate soon.

[RoadTrain]

BTC swap rates at Bitfinex So juicy.

Are you lending, nrd525?

[nrd525]

I'm lending at Bitfinex. I think the rates are great!  It's also tempting to sell them and buy more on Coinbase.  It looks like BFX wants to arrange a one-time method that lets you get fiat out by setting up a trust of the type that is used for legal settlements.  If this works, you'd have a one time arbitrage opportunity with a great return.  Though I have no idea if this is likely (does anyone know?).

For the longer run, they need to get a bank to accept their transfers.  I would expect this to be possible and take less than a month (as Bitfinex should be willing to spend $5 million on this project - or essentially whatever it takes up to the value of the company), but who knows.  Maybe they could get Putin to help with a Russian bank

I was tempted to bet 5 BTC against Le Pen (at 25-30% odds on Fairlay) before round 1, and probably should have done that.  Le Pen's odds of winning the french presidential election have been systematically over-estimated by bettors by a factor of 2-3.  Now that she is running against Macron the odds are down to 12% - so much less money.  I do have $850 against Le Pen on PredictIt (at 39% odds!).  I only did ok on the first round of the French election (on PredictIt) as I made a couple bad trades.

BFX is at 1440, Coinbase 1340, Chinese exchanges 1125.  Craziness everywhere.  Remember we're probably not really in full-on bubble mode until we start going up 10%/day.  LTC is in full bubble mode.

[nrd525]

This Ant Bleed front door / back door is significant. New Bitcoin CEO Jihan (really Antminer) wrote a backdoor into the miners they sell and can now shut down bitcoin miners with a flick of a switch (or several switches).  Meanwhile, ATH.

[nrd525]

Looks like AntMiner patched the software so that is good.

[nrd525]

It is possible that the inability to withdraw USD from Bitfinex could be partially causing the rally.  For one thing, it and the problems at Chinese exchanges should have everyone's technical indicators completely messed up.

ETF appears to have zero chance of happening this year.  Has perhaps a 10-20% chance of happening in the next three years.  Unless could someone create a non-US ETF (and one that avoids the SEC?).

Segwit is making very slow progress.

Bitcoin is unlikely to fork (though Bitcoin Unlimited is up to $250 at Bitfinex, up 25% on the day).

This continues to seem more like a rally than a bubble.

Bitfinex did go up 10% in the last 24 hours (from 1400 trough to the 1548 peak).  So it is getting a bit bubbly.

[york780]

It is possible that the inability to withdraw USD from Bitfinex could be partially causing the rally.  For one thing, it and the problems at Chinese exchanges should have everyone's technical indicators completely messed up.

ETF appears to have zero chance of happening this year.  Has perhaps a 10-20% chance of happening in the next three years.  Unless could someone create a non-US ETF (and one that avoids the SEC?).

Segwit is making very slow progress.

Bitcoin is unlikely to fork (though Bitcoin Unlimited is up to $250 at Bitfinex, up 25% on the day).

This continues to seem more like a rally than a bubble.

Bitfinex did go up 10% in the last 24 hours (from 1400 trough to the 1548 peak).  So it is getting a bit bubbly.

It isnt.

This drives the upmovement:

Japanese banks will sell btc
Trump wants to get rid of his banks (crypto next solution)
Altcoin bubble ending

Cmon man how could you miss the massive bullish btc news?

[nrd525]

It isnt.

This drives the upmovement:

Japanese banks will sell btc
Trump wants to get rid of his banks (crypto next solution)
Altcoin bubble ending

Cmon man how could you miss the massive bullish btc news?

Are you joking?

Japanese banks don't own significant btc (unless you are referring to the mtgox bankruptcy?)

Trump loves banks.  And banks are never going to be replaced by crypto. That is correct, I who usually equivocate (eg. say "maybe") just took an extreme position. It won't happen in a million years.

Altcoin bubble ending is the only part that makes any sense.  And really that just sets us up for another alt-coin bubble in the future as people don't seem to be learning.  It looks like they might bubble until one (or more) succeeds.

[york780]

It isnt.

This drives the upmovement:

Japanese banks will sell btc
Trump wants to get rid of his banks (crypto next solution)
Altcoin bubble ending

Cmon man how could you miss the massive bullish btc news?

Are you joking?

Japanese banks don't own significant btc (unless you are referring to the mtgox bankruptcy?)

Trump loves banks.  And banks are never going to be replaced by crypto. That is correct, I who usually equivocate (eg. say "maybe") just took an extreme position. It won't happen in a million years.

Altcoin bubble ending is the only part that makes any sense.  And really that just sets us up for another alt-coin bubble in the future as people don't seem to be learning.  It looks like they might bubble until one (or more) succeeds.

Not yet, but they will own a significant amount of btc, you will see.

[ZlaiaZaia]

It isnt.

This drives the upmovement:

Japanese banks will sell btc
Trump wants to get rid of his banks (crypto next solution)
Altcoin bubble ending

Cmon man how could you miss the massive bullish btc news?

Are you joking?

Japanese banks don't own significant btc (unless you are referring to the mtgox bankruptcy?)

Trump loves banks.  And banks are never going to be replaced by crypto. That is correct, I who usually equivocate (eg. say "maybe") just took an extreme position. It won't happen in a million years.

Altcoin bubble ending is the only part that makes any sense.  And really that just sets us up for another alt-coin bubble in the future as people don't seem to be learning.  It looks like they might bubble until one (or more) succeeds.

Not yet, but they will own a significant amount of btc, you will see.

The Japanese in this regard are very advanced, so I completely agree with your opinion, you see that the rain will not be given to the Japanese user Bitcoin was not so active. But today they have surpassed the most unexpected expectation.

[york780]

It isnt.

This drives the upmovement:

Japanese banks will sell btc
Trump wants to get rid of his banks (crypto next solution)
Altcoin bubble ending

Cmon man how could you miss the massive bullish btc news?

Are you joking?

Japanese banks don't own significant btc (unless you are referring to the mtgox bankruptcy?)

Trump loves banks.  And banks are never going to be replaced by crypto. That is correct, I who usually equivocate (eg. say "maybe") just took an extreme position. It won't happen in a million years.

Altcoin bubble ending is the only part that makes any sense.  And really that just sets us up for another alt-coin bubble in the future as people don't seem to be learning.  It looks like they might bubble until one (or more) succeeds.

Not yet, but they will own a significant amount of btc, you will see.

The Japanese in this regard are very advanced, so I completely agree with your opinion, you see that the rain will not be given to the Japanese user Bitcoin was not so active. But today they have surpassed the most unexpected expectation.

No mate it was expected.
Massive adoption was already stated by Japanese banks.
Russia will follow soon.
This is just the beginning.

[nrd525]

If you have any examples of Japanese or Russian banks using bitcoins please back up your arguments with links or your posts will be deleted.

Meanwhile, another ATH and it cannot keep going up forever.

I'm also thinking that the over-priced stock markets (at least US) could enter a bear market and negatively impact Bitcoin.

Le Pen has little chance of winning in France as she is consistently 20% behind in the polls (which tend to be very accurate) with 5 days left in the race, which is probably bad for Bitcoin but good for France.

[nrd525]

It's officially a bubble!  
BFX 1679
Bitstamp 1615
Coinbase 1650
Okcoin 1266 (8731 CND)

Alt-coins are also very bubbly (notably Litecoin and Ethereum - not sure what to make of Ripple as it isn't traded as much).  

BTC percentage of cryptocurrency is at an all-time low
http://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#btc-percentage

We might be headed for $2000.

What is especially weird is that after years of people arguing that China is so important, their exchanges are lagging the USD exchanges by 15-33%.

I'm hopeful that the bubble still has some strength in it and will carry us up towards 1900+. But if you have been holding for years and have an increasingly large percent of your assets in bitcoins (and a percentage larger than you want), slowly selling some of them off now might be a good idea.   It beats selling them off at 720 like I did =(

[york780]

It's officially a bubble! 
BFX 1679
Bitstamp 1615
Coinbase 1650
Okcoin 1266 (8731 CND)

Alt-coins are also very bubbly (notably Litecoin and Ethereum - not sure what to make of Ripple as it isn't traded as much).   I wonder if the alt-coin market share of the crypto currencies is at an all-time high?   Or do the alt-coins, weighted by market share, have the highest rate of increase in the past 30 days since the 2013 LTC bubble?

We might be headed for $2000.

What is especially weird is that after years of people arguing that China is so important, their exchanges are lagging the USD exchanges by 15-33%.

I'm hopeful that the bubble still has some strength in it and will carry us up towards 1900+. But if you have been holding for years and have an increasingly large percent of your assets in bitcoins (and a percentage larger than you want), slowly selling some of them off now might be a good idea.   It beats selling them off at 720 like I did =(

Btc isnt in a bubble, I agree on the altcoins part. They will pop sooner or later. Btc will suprise everyone.

[nrd525]

The fall from BFX of 1700 to 1550 (so far) is looking bubbly. As in a typical bubble big decline.

[nrd525]

The price gap between BFX and Coinbase is gone. I even saw Coinbase with a $10-$15 premium for a while.  Still $50 gap with Bitstamp.

China markets hit ATH for BTC finally. 

Litecoin is crazy ($25-$27).

[nrd525]

Very bubbly.  I'm holding, but I've also got 10k sitting around in case it dips below $1000.

BFX high of 1815, fast mini-crash to 1711, fast recover to 1758.

Coinbase is tracking BFX, about $20 behind.

Alt-coins had a small decline in the past 24 hours, but not a clear reversal of the general bull market.

[nrd525]

Alt-coins mostly holding their ground.  So far LTC peaked after Segwit was activated (which I what I wrote in a Reddit comment - when will the alts peak?  I said when LTC activates Segwit in 3-5 days).

BTC another ATH of 1900.  More bullish sentiment.  At this rate we may break $2000 in 1-3 days.

I'm wasting time playing Stellaris.  Fun game so far!

[RoadTrain]

I'm wasting time playing Stellaris.  Fun game so far!

I almost thought you meant Stellar (STR)