Starting a new FPGA mining farm/contract! Cognitive Resurrected on[Havelock]

[silverfuture]

One month delay for cointerra and our shares go down by about 30 pct... There hasn't been a single ASIC-generation miner yet that was delivered on time.

Au contraire, HashFast is set to deliver their first batch before the Dec 31 guaranteed delivery date.

Giving money to Cointerra was a terrible mistake.   

If this statement was AFTER delivery, I'd say thanks Captain Hindsight. However....

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[theterabyte]

Why was giving money to cointerra a terrible mistake?  Isn't that not true unless they actually fail delivery?  Regardless of whether or not hashfast delivers in dec/jan, that network size increase is taken into account in my projections (hence low, middle, and high being over 50% apart from each other).  If cointerra delivers what they promised, COG shareholders will make money and COG shares will be worth more than they are now, it's pretty much 100% up to cointerra (and Garrett running COG well and not screwing up).  If any one company released enough hardware at once to impact the network by THAT much it would have other impacts to the price and confidence of bitcoin itself, so we can (hopefully) presume none would do that.

[mannybitcoins]

Why was giving money to cointerra a terrible mistake?  Isn't that not true unless they actually fail delivery?  Regardless of whether or not hashfast delivers in dec/jan, that network size increase is taken into account in my projections (hence low, middle, and high being over 50% apart from each other).  If cointerra delivers what they promised, COG shareholders will make money and COG shares will be worth more than they are now, it's pretty much 100% up to cointerra (and Garrett running COG well and not screwing up).  If any one company released enough hardware at once to impact the network by THAT much it would have other impacts to the price and confidence of bitcoin itself, so we can (hopefully) presume none would do that.

Keep in mind that god is testing you everytime iCEBREAKER posts in a thread. Feed the troll and you lose. Disregard his posts, and you are a winner. I still cannot avoid the temptation.

[theterabyte]

I do not think Garr is a scammer and I still do not think Garr is a scammer. Yes, the numbers look really really low and I do not know why. I also do not know the costs or even how much mining power we have. I have not been able to follow this company as I have been very busy. I invest in people, people I trust. Yes, this whole thing has me watching and wondering what happened. But also, Cog has survived for years and he never ran away with the BTC.

I do not know what happened in the pas but I have talked to Garr directly and stressed the importance of keeping everything transparent. He seems to agree with this and is working on this. I also know Garr is a young man and just starting Uni. He has a lot on his plate.

Anyway I'm holding what I have and looking to buy more. I trust cointerra to ship in a timely fashion and we have an early Jan order. It does suck that the dividends might not have been perfect but at least if there was going to be a mess up it was at the time were we have had the lowest ever dividends.

Anyway cautiously optimistic.

Yeah, I'm in this boat too (not that anyone asked for my opinion).  "Cautiously optimistic" is me right now.  If you have lost confidence in Garr, or Cointerra, it's pretty hard to come up with a reason not to sell now while you can.  (you might not make a BTC profit, but if you bought at 0.25BTC/share when BTC was $100 and sold at 0.05 with BTC at $900 that's still 55% net-value-profit, less than you would have made holding raw BTC but not a loss!)  On the other hand, if you think there is even a reasonable chance that Garr and cointerra will deliver (and I think there is a reasonable chance) depending on how deep your position is, hold or buy are very reasonable responses right now IMO.

I currently hold 100 shares + 6 mining contracts for a total exposure of 220 shares post-cointerra-delivery, I don't mind admitting, and my average share price is probably 0.13BTC/share including the contracts.  That's just a guess though, I have to go review my histories to get real numbers.

EDIT:  even if the market depth was there, presume I could sell all my holdings for a net of 11BTC, or $9900 at today's exchange rates.  This is probably a very small profit for me given the BTC/share cost and $/BTC cost when I bought in.  Following Jeff Bezos' "regret minimization framework", if cog goes to shit and is worth zero, I lose 9k.  If cog rebounds to 0.25BTC/share, and BTC stays around $1k, I stand to gain $55,000.  For me, I would regret selling if it did well WAY more than not selling and losing my initial investment.  Regret minimization is the way to be a happy investor.

[strello]

A timely update from CoinTerra!

[theterabyte]

A timely update from CoinTerra!

Huzzah!  /me continues cautious optimism

[superresistant]

Yeah, I'm in this boat too (not that anyone asked for my opinion).  "Cautiously optimistic" is me right now.  If you have lost confidence in Garr, or Cointerra, it's pretty hard to come up with a reason not to sell now while you can.  (you might not make a BTC profit, but if you bought at 0.25BTC/share when BTC was $100 and sold at 0.05 with BTC at $900 that's still 55% net-value-profit, less than you would have made holding raw BTC but not a loss!)  On the other hand, if you think there is even a reasonable chance that Garr and cointerra will deliver (and I think there is a reasonable chance) depending on how deep your position is, hold or buy are very reasonable responses right now IMO.
I currently hold 100 shares + 6 mining contracts for a total exposure of 220 shares post-cointerra-delivery, I don't mind admitting, and my average share price is probably 0.13BTC/share including the contracts.  That's just a guess though, I have to go review my histories to get real numbers.
EDIT:  even if the market depth was there, presume I could sell all my holdings for a net of 11BTC, or $9900 at today's exchange rates.  This is probably a very small profit for me given the BTC/share cost and $/BTC cost when I bought in.  Following Jeff Bezos' "regret minimization framework", if cog goes to shit and is worth zero, I lose 9k.  If cog rebounds to 0.25BTC/share, and BTC stays around $1k, I stand to gain $55,000.  For me, I would regret selling if it did well WAY more than not selling and losing my initial investment.  Regret minimization is the way to be a happy investor.

Agree.
I'm an investor. For me, it is worse to loose an opportunity than loose an investment. I prefer taking the risk of having all my share going down to zero than missing the opportunity of making a huge profit.
I believe 2014 will be the year of Cognitive.

[stabs]

Should we negotiate another shipment with Cointerra with our current stock of BTC?  Any other ideas?  We need to keep the hardware coming continuously with our capital.

[superresistant]

Should we negotiate another shipment with Cointerra with our current stock of BTC?  Any other ideas?  We need to keep the hardware coming continuously with our capital.

Better diversify and invest in scrypt mining.

[silverfuture]

Should we negotiate another shipment with Cointerra with our current stock of BTC?  Any other ideas?  We need to keep the hardware coming continuously with our capital.

Better diversify and invest in scrypt mining.

im down with ltc mining as soon as cards are back on the market, there is nothing to be found!

https://alpha-t.net/

[superresistant]

https://alpha-t.net/

lol ltc asic!
hahahahaha

Litecoin FPGA and ASIC are real.

[zefyr0s]

Timeframe looks a little long, 4-5 months after pre-order.

[superresistant]

https://alpha-t.net/

lol ltc asic!
hahahahaha

Litecoin FPGA and ASIC are real.

Whether they exist or not, lols will be had, as it was supposed to be resistant to ASICs.
Oh wait, that's actually totally wrong, it was supposed to be resistant to GPUs.

Resistant to ASICs doesn't mean immune to it. It was a matter of time and investment. So nothing to laugh at.

[Garr255]

but are they "real"?


pretty sure i would have heard about it if there really was one.

Ditto. I'm very well meshed in the FPGA/ASIC community and have not heard of this yet. If they are legitimate, I will take a historic perspective and estimate an additional thee months (*ahem, Avalon*) to one year (*ahem, BFL*) on delivery.

Right now, I strongly agree with investing our reserves in Litecoin hardware in the GPU variety. Are there any disagreements with this?

[superresistant]

but are they "real"?
pretty sure i would have heard about it if there really was one.

Ditto. I'm very well meshed in the FPGA/ASIC community and have not heard of this yet. If they are legitimate, I will take a historic perspective and estimate an additional thee months (*ahem, Avalon*) to one year (*ahem, BFL*) on delivery.
Right now, I strongly agree with investing our reserves in Litecoin hardware in the GPU variety. Are there any disagreements with this?

FPGA and ASIC are possible and some prototype exist. The problem is the production.

I have no idea how long it will take, if we look at the past with Avalon/BFL this could take 6 months or a year.

In the meantime we should go for smart and optimized GPU mining.

EDIT :
For your information :
List of LTC FPGA/ASIC-miner-developers

[silverfuture]

but are they "real"?
pretty sure i would have heard about it if there really was one.

Ditto. I'm very well meshed in the FPGA/ASIC community and have not heard of this yet. If they are legitimate, I will take a historic perspective and estimate an additional thee months (*ahem, Avalon*) to one year (*ahem, BFL*) on delivery.
Right now, I strongly agree with investing our reserves in Litecoin hardware in the GPU variety. Are there any disagreements with this?

FPGA and ASIC are possible and some prototype exist. The problem is the production.

I have no idea how long it will take, if we look at the past with Avalon/BFL this could take half a year or a year.

In the mean time we should go for smart and optimised GPU mining.

+1 Asics might be coming but we should be moving on GPU now.

[theterabyte]

but are they "real"?


pretty sure i would have heard about it if there really was one.

Ditto. I'm very well meshed in the FPGA/ASIC community and have not heard of this yet. If they are legitimate, I will take a historic perspective and estimate an additional thee months (*ahem, Avalon*) to one year (*ahem, BFL*) on delivery.

Right now, I strongly agree with investing our reserves in Litecoin hardware in the GPU variety. Are there any disagreements with this?

I'm not against LTC investments, but I don't think of it as "diversifying" in the same way.  If BTC tanks, LTC is likely to tank too.  If LTC tanks, it may or may not be because BTC is tanking.  LTC is not actually "silver to BTC's gold", it's a faux comparison.  As long as divs are converted to BTC it doesn't really matter to me.

I would be interested in "diversifying" by buying units from other companies too though.  Maybe the hashfast or some sort of deal with asicminer for 3rd gen, or something like that is possible?  Any other manufacturer of lower-than-55-nm would be a good investment to hedge against complete failure of cointerra.

EDIT: of which LTC mining rigs is one example of hedging against failure of cointerra, so the actual calculation becomes "which makes more money, LTC mining rigs or BTC asics from other companies with which we might not have as lucrative a deal as we had with cointerra"?

[ryan1894]

We should have our current GPUs mining the most profitable alt coin and either converting it straight back to Bitcoin or keeping it in that altcoin (in case they rise a la the last rise)

GPUs mining Bitcoin is already a waste of electricity.

EDIT:

nvm we don't even own any GPUs.

If you can start snagging 7970's off ebay (I've seen some go for $300), I think that'd be pretty profitable.

or reprogramming those FPGAs

[stabs]

I don't have much of an alternative but I believe the GPU litecoin mining ship has essentially sailed.  Difficulty is going up very quickly and all Radeon graphic cards prices are insane including ebay, Newegg, and Amazon.

[theterabyte]

I don't have much of an alternative but I believe the GPU litecoin mining ship has essentially sailed.  Difficulty is going up very quickly and all Radeon graphic cards prices are insane including ebay, Newegg, and Amazon.

That was my impression too, but I have no numbers to back it up, I haven't done the research.  Before we jump on that, we should run the numbers.  Specifically, I want to see "we can get X MH/s at a cost of $P by <time delay>.  The last litecoin diff increase was Y% and the current diff is Z% therefore we can expect to break even after time Z assuming no drastic changes in rate of diff increase" - or the same analysis for the currently most profitable scrypt coin, as a proof of concept.