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Author Topic: Starting a new FPGA mining farm/contract! Cognitive Resurrected on[Havelock]  (Read 274692 times)
superresistant
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December 13, 2013, 09:15:05 AM
 #1761

I don't have much of an alternative but I believe the GPU litecoin mining ship has essentially sailed.  Difficulty is going up very quickly and all Radeon graphic cards prices are insane including ebay, Newegg, and Amazon.
That was my impression too, but I have no numbers to back it up, I haven't done the research.  Before we jump on that, we should run the numbers.  Specifically, I want to see "we can get X MH/s at a cost of $P by <time delay>.  The last litecoin diff increase was Y% and the current diff is Z% therefore we can expect to break even after time Z assuming no drastic changes in rate of diff increase" - or the same analysis for the currently most profitable scrypt coin, as a proof of concept.

Here is my calculations using :
radeon HD 7770 / 99 usd per card / 210 Mh/S / 80 W / 6000% profitability compared to Bitcoin (average past 7 days) / 0.15 USD/kWh / 797.98 USD/BTC

I've got 5.278764 USD per day. ROI 19 days for one GPU (it does not include motherboard, riser cable, CPU, RAM, pool fees)

It's just a quick estimation but GPU mining look very profitable right now.


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JimiQ84
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December 13, 2013, 09:24:57 AM
 #1762

I don't have much of an alternative but I believe the GPU litecoin mining ship has essentially sailed.  Difficulty is going up very quickly and all Radeon graphic cards prices are insane including ebay, Newegg, and Amazon.
That was my impression too, but I have no numbers to back it up, I haven't done the research.  Before we jump on that, we should run the numbers.  Specifically, I want to see "we can get X MH/s at a cost of $P by <time delay>.  The last litecoin diff increase was Y% and the current diff is Z% therefore we can expect to break even after time Z assuming no drastic changes in rate of diff increase" - or the same analysis for the currently most profitable scrypt coin, as a proof of concept.

Here is my calculations using :
radeon HD 7770 / 99 usd per card / 210 Mh/S / 80 W / 6000% profitability compared to Bitcoin (average past 7 days) / 0.15 USD/kWh / 797.98 USD/BTC

I've got 5.278764 USD per day. ROI 19 days for one GPU (it does not include motherboard, riser cable, CPU, RAM, pool fees)

It's just a quick estimation but GPU mining look very profitable right now.



Are you comparing GPU LTC vs GPU BTC? We should compare GPU LTC vs ASIC BTC
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December 13, 2013, 09:45:04 AM
 #1763

Are you comparing GPU LTC vs GPU BTC? We should compare GPU LTC vs ASIC BTC

Yes but the ROI can be compared to the ROI from ASIC BTC.
If the GPU ROI is better then it is better.

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December 13, 2013, 01:56:49 PM
 #1764

Are you comparing GPU LTC vs GPU BTC? We should compare GPU LTC vs ASIC BTC

Yes but the ROI can be compared to the ROI from ASIC BTC.
If the GPU ROI is better then it is better.

nowhere on the site is written how exactly is profitability calculated. I just don't believe that GPUs worth 10BTC would be 60 times (= 6000%) profitable (mining LTC) than ASICs worth 10BTC (mining BTC).
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December 13, 2013, 02:51:30 PM
 #1765


Can we get an official statement regarding FIMB migration status? Dividends are very late, and no word has been given when it will be migrated to a new exchange. At a minimum, dividends should continue to be paid on schedule using BTCT's panic address, as months have passed since the shutdown and there is no reason for withholding payments.




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December 13, 2013, 06:25:40 PM
 #1766

Well it was a Fixed Interest Mining Bond. I guess his unlucky streak of solomining didn't bode well for those monthly interest payments...

Glad someone bought the little I had for 2x face value.

Maybe everyone will get an update regarding FIMB and COG's financials soon.

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superresistant
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December 13, 2013, 06:38:32 PM
 #1767

nowhere on the site is written how exactly is profitability calculated. I just don't believe that GPUs worth 10BTC would be 60 times (= 6000%) profitable (mining LTC) than ASICs worth 10BTC (mining BTC).

Well, I've been GPU mining and comparing results of mining BTC vs altcoins. These estimates on the site are accurate.
Try it yourself if you don't believe it. Mine with a GPU (or even a CPU) for 24h BTC, then 24h altcoins, convert to BTC and compare.

The numbers behind are here. Check the thread.

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December 13, 2013, 07:14:26 PM
 #1768

nowhere on the site is written how exactly is profitability calculated. I just don't believe that GPUs worth 10BTC would be 60 times (= 6000%) profitable (mining LTC) than ASICs worth 10BTC (mining BTC).

Well, I've been GPU mining and comparing results of mining BTC vs altcoins. These estimates on the site are accurate.
Try it yourself if you don't believe it. Mine with a GPU (or even a CPU) for 24h BTC, then 24h altcoins, convert to BTC and compare.

The numbers behind are here. Check the thread.

That's comparing GPU BTC mining and GPU LTC mining. I said that more fair would be comparing ASIC BTC mining with GPU LTC mining. For 10BTC you can get 10 Asicminer cubes, ergo 380GH/s overclocked. On the other hand, 10BTC (with BTC price at $870) will get you 14 AMD R290x cards which do apparently ~900kh/s, so 12,6 MH/s. Now we can start comparing. I doubt the GPUs would by 60x profitable than Cubes
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December 13, 2013, 07:19:26 PM
 #1769

nowhere on the site is written how exactly is profitability calculated. I just don't believe that GPUs worth 10BTC would be 60 times (= 6000%) profitable (mining LTC) than ASICs worth 10BTC (mining BTC).

Well, I've been GPU mining and comparing results of mining BTC vs altcoins. These estimates on the site are accurate.
Try it yourself if you don't believe it. Mine with a GPU (or even a CPU) for 24h BTC, then 24h altcoins, convert to BTC and compare.

The numbers behind are here. Check the thread.

That's comparing GPU BTC mining and GPU LTC mining. I said that more fair would be comparing ASIC BTC mining with GPU LTC mining. For 10BTC you can get 10 Asicminer cubes, ergo 380GH/s overclocked. On the other hand, 10BTC (with BTC price at $870) will get you 14 AMD R290x cards which do apparently ~900kh/s, so 12,6 MH/s. Now we can start comparing. I doubt the GPUs would by 60x profitable than Cubes

Coinwarz can do a comparison like this. Obviously power usage will be a factor too.
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December 13, 2013, 07:19:31 PM
 #1770

nowhere on the site is written how exactly is profitability calculated. I just don't believe that GPUs worth 10BTC would be 60 times (= 6000%) profitable (mining LTC) than ASICs worth 10BTC (mining BTC).

Well, I've been GPU mining and comparing results of mining BTC vs altcoins. These estimates on the site are accurate.
Try it yourself if you don't believe it. Mine with a GPU (or even a CPU) for 24h BTC, then 24h altcoins, convert to BTC and compare.

The numbers behind are here. Check the thread.

The other problem is the change in difficulty could be different.  We can't make decisions based only upon NOW, we need to make decisions based upon projections into the next 2-3 months.  6000% more than zero doesn't make sense.  Right now, GPU mining bitcoins makes you some money, but less than the power costs.  6000% more profit might cover power, but it might not, you need to do that calculation.  Then you need to include the rate of change of LTC difficulty.  To me, 100$ per card + power supply, mobo, etc, call it $500 charitably (probably would actually cost way more), making 5$ per day will take 100 days to break even, except if the difficulty increases just 5% every 14 days, it will take *way* longer because by the end of 100 days you are making only 60% as much per day.  And I just made up 5%, it's probably higher with all the people switching away from bitcoin mining...

The best evidence to consider would be a table with rows like this:

Cost of miner, daily/weekly return at the time we would receive it, estimated rate of difficulty change

Then the math is pretty straightforward to calculate the time-to-break-even and profit-per-unit-investment.

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superresistant
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December 13, 2013, 07:32:55 PM
 #1771

The other problem is the change in difficulty could be different.  We can't make decisions based only upon NOW, we need to make decisions based upon projections into the next 2-3 months.  6000% more than zero doesn't make sense.  Right now, GPU mining bitcoins makes you some money, but less than the power costs.  6000% more profit might cover power, but it might not, you need to do that calculation.  Then you need to include the rate of change of LTC difficulty.  To me, 100$ per card + power supply, mobo, etc, call it $500 charitably (probably would actually cost way more), making 5$ per day will take 100 days to break even, except if the difficulty increases just 5% every 14 days, it will take *way* longer because by the end of 100 days you are making only 60% as much per day.  And I just made up 5%, it's probably higher with all the people switching away from bitcoin mining...

The best evidence to consider would be a table with rows like this:

Cost of miner, daily/weekly return at the time we would receive it, estimated rate of difficulty change

Then the math is pretty straightforward to calculate the time-to-break-even and profit-per-unit-investment.

I agree, it was just a quick estimate. Could you do the calculation for us ? I'll try tomorrow myself but I'm too tired now.

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December 15, 2013, 04:42:09 AM
 #1772

Thanks for the divs.

At a quick glance they are about half of what we mined in the last two (?) months?

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December 15, 2013, 08:45:47 AM
 #1773

Thanks for the divs.

At a quick glance they are about half of what we mined in the last two (?) months?
Have you not read the last few pages of shareholders speculating why the divs after two months were so low?

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December 16, 2013, 10:45:59 PM
 #1774

I’m curious about the COG.F and COG.F2 funds on Havelock. COG.F and COG.F2 were originally sold for 2.5 BTC and 5 BTC each and are worth 20 COG shares which can now be purchased outright for less than 0.9 BTC. Is this correct?

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December 16, 2013, 10:48:42 PM
 #1775

Fellow COG Investors,

As a shareholder and voter in this project I consider myself an activist when it comes to increasing the value of this operation. The current administrator of this project has done a phenomenal job. An initial investment of $40  has become a company worth > $400,000.
I still believe there is room for improvement.

Problem 1: Lack of hash-rate transparency.
Solution: Create a twitter feed with daily updates on COG’s current hash rate. It has become increasingly difficult to be able to determine how COG is hashing and where. We have sporadic updates and the pools at which COG’s hardware are mining are constantly changing. This daily update will increase investor confidence in the project and hopefully convince future investment.  

Edit: I see on the site where there will be charts to track mining output

Problem 2:
Lack of ownership transparency.
Explanation: How many publicly traded shares of COG exist? How many different exchanges are these shares traded on? What are the expected numbers of shares after COG.F and COG.F2 convert? This is imperative information if someone is trying to value the company fairly.


Problem 3: Is the hardware insured?
Explanation: With ~$100k in hardware, from my estimates, can we afford to purchase insurance? Is all the hardware hosted in a single location? Does the location meet safety codes?

Problem 4: Do FIMB shares expose COG to unnecessary counterparty risk?
Explanation: Do funds from COG’s hashing activities co-mingle with FIMB? In the event of default, how are FIMB bondholders repaid?

Problem 5: Will the administrator appoint a shareholder board to take over certain responsibilities in the event that the administrator is unable?  Does a board already exist? Does a separate legal entity own the assets of the operation, or are all the assets held in the name of the administrator?

Disclosure:
I own COG shares via Havelock Investments and Miningco.ETF



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December 17, 2013, 02:02:24 AM
 #1776

Edit: I see on the site where there will be charts to track mining output

Right now we are much more interested in the past. I am not familiar with all the pools where Cognitive mines or has mined at, but all the pools I mine at personally have some sort of history log (i.e. payouts). Post the ones available.

(yes, I read the thread, shareholder since day 1)

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December 17, 2013, 03:36:13 AM
 #1777


Problem 2:
Lack of ownership transparency.
Explanation: How many publicly traded shares of COG exist? How many different exchanges are these shares traded on? What are the expected numbers of shares after COG.F and COG.F2 convert? This is imperative information if someone is trying to value the company fairly.

Back when COG was on btct.co the total number of shares were visible.  Though you can't see them now, if I remember correctly there were 10,420 shares of COG, 200 COG.F, and 600 COG.F2.  At 20 shares for each of those last two, that totals 26,420 once they have converted.  Hopefully Garr can correct me if I am off here?


Problem 3: Is the hardware insured?
Explanation: With ~$100k in hardware, from my estimates, can we afford to purchase insurance? Is all the hardware hosted in a single location? Does the location meet safety codes?

Problem 4: Do FIMB shares expose COG to unnecessary counterparty risk?
Explanation: Do funds from COG’s hashing activities co-mingle with FIMB? In the event of default, how are FIMB bondholders repaid?

Problem 5: Will the administrator appoint a shareholder board to take over certain responsibilities in the event that the administrator is unable?  Does a board already exist? Does a separate legal entity own the assets of the operation, or are all the assets held in the name of the administrator?


All of these are great points.  I'd be really nice to see these questions addressed.

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December 17, 2013, 05:17:09 AM
 #1778

I think we should just reclaim the 845 shares from the person(s) who haven't claimed them yet and not issue!
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December 17, 2013, 05:43:47 AM
 #1779

That still won't make up for the missed dividends of the past 2 months.

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December 17, 2013, 07:25:17 AM
 #1780

That still won't make up for the missed dividends of the past 2 months.

The longer this gets ignored, the more I suspect foul play.  Angry
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