Starting a new FPGA mining farm/contract! Cognitive Resurrected on[Havelock]

[theterabyte]

Garr, can you describe the costs tied to requesting a refund on the Avalons? I believe some people here don't know that assembly costs will not be refunded, as the investments are already made. It would help if we could compare both options, to see where we can minimize the losses.
The more people ask for a refund, the better the expectation on mining gets..

I didn't realize part of the costs might be sunk - if that's the case. the motion should include that info.  Good point.

[killerstorm]

Garr, can you describe the costs tied to requesting a refund on the Avalons? I believe some people here don't know that assembly costs will not be refunded, as the investments are already made. It would help if we could compare both options, to see where we can minimize the losses.
The more people ask for a refund, the better the expectation on mining gets..

I didn't realize part of the costs might be sunk - if that's the case. the motion should include that info.  Good point.

You forgot to re-login, Garr.

[blackswan]

The 7 Singles are suppose to arrive today correct?

[medicine]

The 7 Singles are suppose to arrive today correct?

That's what Garr said post #1272.  I do wish he would post to this thread more then once a week.  How busy can a University student be? Busier then I was, that's for sure.

[theterabyte]

Garr, can you describe the costs tied to requesting a refund on the Avalons? I believe some people here don't know that assembly costs will not be refunded, as the investments are already made. It would help if we could compare both options, to see where we can minimize the losses.
The more people ask for a refund, the better the expectation on mining gets..

I didn't realize part of the costs might be sunk - if that's the case. the motion should include that info.  Good point.

You forgot to re-login, Garr.

lol, if people honestly believe I am Garr, let them.  Investors are rarely rational and their lack of reason lets the more rational ones make a profit.  I just feel bad for anyone fooled by these clowns.

[stabs]

Garr, did the singles arrive and are they hashing yet?

[iCEBREAKER]

I am a semi-large stock holder and I hold 600 shares (a bit over 5% I guess) right this second. Also a few options. Just wanted to let you know that so you know I'm serious about this company and its future.

Now what I do not really understand is why we want to get rid of the avalon stuff and get this new stuff. The new stuff is great to add for later but why get rid of avalon??

Now correct me if I am wrong on anything but from my understanding is that this new chips we will be getting in Dec/Jan will be more or less 4 times as powerful. However I suspect the difficulty will go up more than 4x by then so why are we going to change?  I really do not like all my eggs in one basket and some in avalon seems fine.

Also Garr, what is the status of the avalon chips? Many people are reporting "pre-shipping" so I'm going to assume that even if we vote to change odds are avalon will have shipped by the time we have voted. They claim to have 400k chips in hand and are getting them ready to ship now.

Anyway I am going to vote for no change on anything as this point and I wont be too happy if my options on cog.f get changed to something else.

Also if we wait for Dec/Jan and get rid of these avalon chips the stock price is going to slump massively as we will not be growing like some of the other options.

I guess what am I over looking or where did I go wrong? Please poke holes in this cuz I have not really had the time to look into everything.


Thanks.

Avalon is old and busted.  Also, inept.

Cointerra is new hotness.  Let's invest in the future, not the past.

[Garr255]

Hey all, the 7 SC Sinlges arrived today and are currently hashing away at ~420gh/s. This puts our total hashrate at over 750gh/s!

And what would a hardware arrival be without pictures?!



Super beefy PSUs + cables.


And the full setup!


With regard to the avalon refund, it is definitely something that will be worth it to do, because we will be getting significantly more powerful hardware at a significantly lower price point. It just mathematically makes sense to collect the BTC from avalon and put the funds toward hardware that isn't obsolete.

No boards for the avalon chips have been manufactured yet, so there will be no loss for Cognitive there. I and numerous other investors in private mining projects have paid for the R&D costs of the Avalon boards ourselves and I will be eating Cognitive's share of that cost.

Again, I apologize for not being as active as I'd like to be on the forums. I have been quite busy for the past few weeks, but now I'm getting settled and into the swing of things. I'm studying electrical and computer engineering and business, and going to flight school, because aviation has always been a passion of mine So yes, I do have a lot on my plate, so I do prioritize accordingly. I've been working away at keeping Cognitive itself running smoothly in this transitional period, and haven't been keeping up on the PR side of things. You can expect more frequent updates from me from this day forward.

Cheers,
Garrett

[JimiQ84]

Hey all, the 7 SC Sinlges arrived today and are currently hashing away at ~420gh/s. This puts our total hashrate at over 750gh/s!

yeeey, congrats to us all

[Tafelpoot]

Thanks for the update Garr.

With regard to the avalon refund, it is definitely something that will be worth it to do, because we will be getting significantly more powerful hardware at a significantly lower price point. It just mathematically makes sense to collect the BTC from avalon and put the funds toward hardware that isn't obsolete.

Please provide us the numbers in this thread so that there is actual math. "Significantly" doesn't say much.

I found the following numbers:

Avalon
282MH/s per chip at 6.6 W/GH/s (chip only) - 9.5 W/GH/s (whole module)
Total Hash rate: 490GH/s or 0.49TH/s
Paid: 150btc

50btc paid for 581 chips
100btc paid for ?? chips, I assume about 1100 chips.

assembly costs: private - some issues to be resolved.
Shipping NOW (september 2013).

Cointerra
500GH/s rigs at 0.5 W/GH/s
Total hashrate: 1 PH/s = 1000 TH/s = 1000000 GH/s
3000btc+ required for 1 PH/s? No exact numbers known.
300btc raised in CogF2.
150btc avalon refund from CogF required?
100+btc from treasury required?

Shipping in Q1/Q2 2014.
Expected hash rate by June 2014?

Garr, please resolve all the question marks so to show how significant your calculation is.

EDIT: more accurate info on http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

[redbeans2012]

Garr can you post an update on btct.co with the updated hashing power?

[Tafelpoot]

A quick comparison with bASIC mining... looks like they are about on par now.

Cognitive
Total Hash Rate - 750 GH/s
Nr of shares - 10420
Hash Rate Per Share - 72 MH/s
Avg Day Price - 0.295 btc
==>  244 MH/btc
+1000 TH/s in Q1-Q2 2014, if CogF2 is successful.

bASIC
Total Hash Rate - 1435 GH/s
Nr of shares - 51625
Hash Rate Per Share - 27.8 MH/s
Avg Day Price - 0.121 btc
==> 230 MH/btc
+0.8 TH/s BitFury chips in October 2013.

[theterabyte]

The other aspect to consider is the avalon chips aren't just slower, they are higher-power-usage as well, which means it will literally cost more electricity to run them than they produce in BTC very soon, if the network growth continues or even if it just grows linearly (it is currently exponential).  The avalon chips are not worth it because Garr would have to turn them off in a few months anyways, because they are not economical to run anymore.

[killerstorm]

A quick comparison with bASIC mining... looks like they are about on par now.

You did not take into account liquid assets they own.

[iCEBREAKER]

Avalon is old and busted.  Also, inept.

Cointerra is new hotness.  Let's invest in the future, not the past.

For new money sure, but why get a refund on something that is about to ship?

Avalon has been "about to ship" for so long the chips are obsolete.  That's why they're (finally) offering full refunds to everybody.

This situation is the fault of 'Why, I F'ed You' not Garr.

Lots of people lost lots of money, because of Avalon's failure to deliver in a timely manner.  Recriminations, bad blood, and hurt feelings abound.

But Cointerra is run by adults, not children like 'Why, I F'ed You!'

Let's write off Plan A (Avalon) and focus on getting the warehouse full of 500GH Cointerra chips hashing at capacity.   

[theterabyte]

According to http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/, avalon batch 3 (which, if I understand correctly, are based upon the same chips), produce 65GH/s at 620W, or 105MH/w.

At best, electricity costs $0.02/kW*h, or 0.02/1000W*h, so (620W*($0.02/1000W*h)) => $0.0124/h to run 65GH/s, or 0.0124$/h / (65GH/s * 60s/m * 60m/h) =>$0.0000005299/GH.  At a difficulty of 100mil, the average number of hashes to solve a block are 100mil * 2**32 => 429496729600000000H => 429496729GH, which means a block "costs" $0.0000005299 *429496729GH => $227.59 but is worth ($130/BTC * 25BTC) => $3250.  If the diff increases 60% per month (currently it is increasing at 77% per month according to TGB) then in 3 months it will be 100*(1.6**3) = 410mil, and so on, so I made this table:

If profit is value - electric cost:
today 100mil => (3250 - 228) => $3022 per block found
3 months 410mil => (3250 - 933) => $2317 per block found
4 months 655mil => (3250 - 1491) => $1759 per block found
5 months 1048mil => (3250 - 2385) => $865 per block found
6 months 1678mil => (3250 - 3817) => turn it off, dawg.

Not only does each block net less profit, but we also expect to find blocks slower.
Time to find a block => diff * 2**32 / (hash per s) = time
At 1TH/s, we find:

Today 100mil => 100mil * 2**32 / (1TH/s) *(1m/60s*1h/60m) => 119h to find a block => 0.20 blocks per day => 5.02 BTC/day
3 months 410mil => 0.049block/day => 1.22BTC/day
4 months 655mil => 0.030block/day => 0.7692BTC/day
5 months 1048mil => 0.0192block/day => 0.48BTC/day

So the point is, even 3 months from now, we'd be lucky to be making 2BTC/day, even though it is profitable it'd be better for garr to spend his time deploying hundreds of TH in hardware that won't have to be turned off in just 2 months later.  I am unconvinced avalon hardware will be actually hashing in less than 1-2 months from now if we don't cancel the order.

Summary:  I was wrong - the avalon chips will probably be profitable to run for 4-7 months, depending on network growth.  However, the returns will be so small, I'd still rather bet on future tech, as exponential growth cannot be sustained after 28nm, but we are already seeing 110nm stuff get left in the dust.

The decision is less clear cut, but I still feel like avalon refund is the way to go.  We already have a few batch 2/3 devices, right?  It's not like we have no avalon hardware, it just seems silly to keep putting money into the old stuff when we could instead put it into the better stuff.

Please correct any errors you find.

EDIT: typos

[silverfuture]

According to http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/, avalon batch 3 (which, if I understand correctly, are based upon the same chips), produce 65GH/s at 620W, or 105MH/w.

At best, electricity costs $0.02/kW*h, or 0.02/1000W*h, so (620W*($0.02/1000W*h)) => $0.0124/h to run 65GH/s, or 0.0124$/h / (65GH/s * 60s/m * 60m/h) =>$0.0000005299/GH.  At a difficulty of 100mil, the average number of hashes to solve a block are 100mil * 2**32 => 429496729600000000H => 429496729GH, which means a block "costs" $0.0000005299 *429496729GH => $227.59 but is worth ($130/BTC * 25BTC) => $3250.  If the diff increases 60% per month (currently it is increasing at 77% per month according to TGB) then in 3 months it will be 100*(1.6**3) = 410mil, and so on, so I made this table:

If profit is value - electric cost:
today 100mil => (3250 - 228) => $3022 per block found
3 months 410mil => (3250 - 933) => $2317 per block found
4 months 655mil => (3250 - 1491) => $1759 per block found
5 months 1048mil => (3250 - 2385) => $865 per block found
6 months 1678mil => (3250 - 3817) => turn it off, dawg.

Not only does each block net less profit, but we also expect to find blocks slower.
Time to find a block => diff * 2**32 / (hash per s) = time
At 1TH/s, we find:

Today 100mil => 100mil * 2**32 / (1TH/s) *(1m/60s*1h/60m) => 119h to find a block => 0.20 blocks per day => 5.02 BTC/day
3 months 410mil => 0.049block/day => 1.22BTC/day
4 months 655mil => 0.030block/day => 0.7692BTC/day
5 months 1048mil => 0.0192block/day => 0.48BTC/day

So the point is, even 3 months from now, we'd be lucky to be making 2BTC/day, even though it is profitable it'd be better for garr to spend his time deploying hundreds of TH in hardware that won't have to be turned off in just 2 months later.  I am unconvinced avalon hardware will be actually hashing in less than 1-2 months from now if we don't cancel the order.

Summary:  I was wrong - the avalon chips will probably be profitable to run for 4-7 months, depending on network growth.  However, the returns will be so small, I'd still rather bet on future tech, as exponential growth cannot be sustained after 28nm, but we are already seeing 110nm stuff get left in the dust.

The decision is less clear cut, but I still feel like avalon refund is the way to go.  We already have a few batch 2/3 devices, right?  It's not like we have no avalon hardware, it just seems silly to keep putting money into the old stuff when we could instead put it into the better stuff.

Please correct any errors you find.

EDIT: typos

Thanks for your work.  I'd love to have my cogf shares be converted more quickly and start paying divs but holding out for more efficient tech seems the only way to go here. I think it is also worth considering the work involved in getting the avalons hashing will not be insignificant and will add to the time it takes before deployment. 

[btcash]

Garr can you post an update on btct.co with the updated hashing power?

And please update cognitivemining.com. I have no idea how many funds COGNITIVE atm has.

[investr]

Garr can you post an update on btct.co with the updated hashing power?

And please update cognitivemining.com. I have no idea how many funds COGNITIVE atm has.

jesus there's a cognitive atm now?!?!

[theterabyte]

The man problem here is that you did not do any calculations for the new chips. Use the same crazy high difficulty you did for the avalon math and see how long you get to use your newer chips. Just eye balling it it seems you will get to use the new chips for even less time making it cost more and take longer.

You really only did this half way.

Fair enough.  According to TGB again, Cointerra's chips do 2TH/s on 1200W.  (1200W * ($0.02/1000W*h)) => $0.024/h,  $0.024/h / (2000GH/s * 60s/m * 60m/h) => $0.00000000333/GH.

Compared to the previous number, we have 5.299e-7 versus 3.33e-9, or ~160 times more efficient.

6 months out, 1678 mil diff, => 1678mil * 2**32 * $0.00000000333/GH * (1/1bil GH) => $23.999.

So at a difficulty of 1678 mil, doing the number of hashes needed to discover a block on 110nm chips will cost $3817 and doing it on 28nm chips will cost $24.  3817/24 => ~160, so our numbers match expectations.

Of course, this assumes cointerra hits their power/hash goals, etc, since we don't know if they have a working proof of concept yet, and we know from BFL companies have failed to reach predictions before.

EDIT: if we assume 60% growth over the next year - so 12 months out - we would be at 28147mil diff.  This is VERY unlikely - exponential growth cannot continue forever.  Nonetheless, if it happened, we'd have $402.56 per block.  Of course, as I argued above, discovering blocks would still be very very slow, but even at insane exponential growth, we wouldn't be turning our miners off even after 12 months from now (9months from getting them).

EDIT2: how slow?  at 1TH/s (for fair comparison) and 12-month diff (28147mil) we expect 0.000714 BTC/day, but a single cointerra device is 2TH/s, which would make 0.0014BTC/day, and if we get the full 1048TH/s garr has predicted, we'd be at 0.749BTC/day even 12 months from now.  You can do the math yourself to fill in the gaps if you want.