[XMR] Monero Speculation

[explorer]

everyone wants to sell before a dump then buy at a lower price to get more coins

It might surprise you, but I think a substantial portion of the people inhere don't. They just hold and buy more, never sell.

It's a scarce commodity.  Dumping is risky.  Fewer XMR come into being each day than the last.  Exponentially more exposure every day.  That alone is going to require a pressure suit to deal with.  Bullet Proofs,  hard wallets, soft wallets, exchanges, vendors - This is all accelerating together.  Andreas' recent talk exactly described Monero, though he disdains to mention it by name.  People are starting to click that fungibility is a thing, and they don't have it.  Short term, ask range driver or someone.  Mid to long term, I can't help but be ridiculously bullish.

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[Tomohisa]

Oh damn BTC is wake up, at least we have a fun ride.

[foggywhite007]

Monero is surprisingly well kept in that time when BTC starts to grow. I think if at such time she is stable when the cue ball a little tired she'll go to to $ 500.
I think next year will be a real boom in the fully anonymous cryptocurrency. Monero, is definitely the leader.

[aminorex]

Remember Risto's probability case( I think we were ~30 cents at the time ) for each of: $3 $30 $300 $3000 ?

I always thought his estimates were pessimistic. My estimates proved pessimistic as well, but his more so. Crypto always surprises me with the scale of it's momentum, and of it's volatility.

 I would suspect that we are in for another 10x somewhere in the next year.  What then?

By 2022 the mining flow will be a tenth of what it is now, so if the incremental demand remains unchanged in value, a 10x in that time is a given.  Any more rapid increase would require accelerated demand.  That could come from market adoption, from crypto sector popularity, from diversification flows within crypto, from adverse events in comparables, from technical advances, ... Or any one or more of dozens of other causes.

Given the degree of skepticism in alts, after further consideration, I doubt that multisig etc is fully priced in.  This is a very show-me environment.  It's advent won't affect the true believers, but the majority of potential reserve demand sources will not be convinced until it is working on mainnet.  "Sell the news" does not seem to work so well in alts.

[hoertest]

I was very bullish about Monero for q1 and 2 2018, but i didn't have the current fee situation in mind, and this WILL become a problem if its not solved rather quickly. Crypto will accelerate in 2018 we have seen nothing yet and if monero gets to expensive to use just telling people wait for lightning won't cut it. No matter how good the privacy is. i think the community here underestimates the problem of expensive transactions.

[Febo]

why you speak about a dump? i do not find any reason for this....instead i think we are going up from now again.
i bought more just because is cheap. i mean is better to buy at 242 from 270 or more later  i have coins from the time of 20 eur and less... since then i only buy...

just asking if guys here think there will be one.
im not saying there will be.

-_-

I get the feeling that no one knows how to price-in coinbase, or if they should--so...

Multisig and hardware wallet feel like they've been priced-in, just by how the market clicked up when those looked imminent. Was kind of suprised by the jump with coral reef as that was a terribly kept secret, so what do i know.

Price-in of Coinbase listing is a classical Monero jump of x3 of the price.  After that would of course be a correction, but if this happens tomorrow we would see Monero close to the $1000.

I was very bullish about Monero for q1 and 2 2018, but i didn't have the current fee situation in mind, and this WILL become a problem if its not solved rather quickly. Crypto will accelerate in 2018 we have seen nothing yet and if monero gets to expensive to use just telling people wait for lightning won't cut it. No matter how good the privacy is. i think the community here underestimates the problem of expensive transactions.

LOL, none says anyone to wait for lightning on Monero. No way. Fees in Monero go down with higher number of transactions so I am not worried of fees in Monero. Right now fee is just a bit under $1, what is not perfect but is sustainable.  With bulletproofs should decrease by 5  together with transaction size.

I would love to see Monero transaction fees closer to 10 cents then $1, but we can never get a perfect things in our life. Monero is only close to that.

[Surging Chaos]

I was very bullish about Monero for q1 and 2 2018, but i didn't have the current fee situation in mind, and this WILL become a problem if its not solved rather quickly. Crypto will accelerate in 2018 we have seen nothing yet and if monero gets to expensive to use just telling people wait for lightning won't cut it. No matter how good the privacy is. i think the community here underestimates the problem of expensive transactions.

You do know about bulletproofs cutting tx fees by 80% in the next few months, right?

All of the alts are actively working on ways (or already have) to reduce fees and increase scaling. The only crypto that isn't doing anything about it is BTC.

[Globb0]

I was very bullish about Monero for q1 and 2 2018, but i didn't have the current fee situation in mind, and this WILL become a problem if its not solved rather quickly. Crypto will accelerate in 2018 we have seen nothing yet and if monero gets to expensive to use just telling people wait for lightning won't cut it. No matter how good the privacy is. i think the community here underestimates the problem of expensive transactions.

Most stuff in Monero is scalable and reactive to the circumstances of the moment.

Its is very well designed and a lot of thought has gone into it.

It is not the dumb terminal stuck with a few basic rules.

[Tavarez]

Well the performance of XMR is a great example that you should invest in solid platforms you believe in. Happy to see it do well. At the time of this post it is listed at $309 on coinmarketcap but I still found it worthy to invest.

[hoertest]

I was very bullish about Monero for q1 and 2 2018, but i didn't have the current fee situation in mind, and this WILL become a problem if its not solved rather quickly. Crypto will accelerate in 2018 we have seen nothing yet and if monero gets to expensive to use just telling people wait for lightning won't cut it. No matter how good the privacy is. i think the community here underestimates the problem of expensive transactions.

You do know about bulletproofs cutting tx fees by 80% in the next few months, right?

All of the alts are actively working on ways (or already have) to reduce fees and increase scaling. The only crypto that isn't doing anything about it is BTC.

few moths will be a lot in the next two years. but lets assume we have bulletproofs now and av. fee drops to 80 cents . no more useful for small transactions even then. this will result in a stop on adoption . it already has. look at dream. Merchants can calculate. Musicians can't.
the fact is no monero as a currency without Layer 2. thats a tough pill to swallow at least for me.

[hoertest]

I was very bullish about Monero for q1 and 2 2018, but i didn't have the current fee situation in mind, and this WILL become a problem if its not solved rather quickly. Crypto will accelerate in 2018 we have seen nothing yet and if monero gets to expensive to use just telling people wait for lightning won't cut it. No matter how good the privacy is. i think the community here underestimates the problem of expensive transactions.

Most stuff in Monero is scalable and reactive to the circumstances of the moment.

Its is very well designed and a lot of thought has gone into it.

It is not the dumb terminal stuck with a few basic rules.

well the fees are what they are.  high
i would love them not to be.

[pönde]

You do know about bulletproofs cutting tx fees by 80% in the next few months, right?

All of the alts are actively working on ways (or already have) to reduce fees and increase scaling. The only crypto that isn't doing anything about it is BTC.

I actually had not thought that bulletproof will decrease the fees also. Will it? But significant is, that it will decrease the transaction size. That is really something.

Probably bulletproof will happen at autumn 2018.


Has anybody any news about multisig? Something more than soon.
https://themerkle.com/moneros-multisignature-implementation-officially-enters-testing-phase/
What do you think, will coinbase adopt monero in few days or few months after multisig implementation.

[Millionero]

I've been a coinbase customer for four and a half years.  Coinbase is under the thumb of financial authorities.  Recently Coinbase acquiesced to an IRS subpoena for customer records.  Coinbase could have appealed, but they gave in.  Coinbase is such a big, fat target that they are probably afraid to add a coin like Monero.  All the bulldogs and retrograde anti-crypto buttheads like Feinstein and company would be on Coinbase like flies on shit.  Coinbase isn't going to add Monero any time soon.

[Millionero]

Crypto always surprises me with the scale of it's its momentum, and of it's its volatility.

FTFY

[explorer]

You do know about bulletproofs cutting tx fees by 80% in the next few months, right?

All of the alts are actively working on ways (or already have) to reduce fees and increase scaling. The only crypto that isn't doing anything about it is BTC.

I actually had not thought that bulletproof will decrease the fees also. Will it? But significant is, that it will decrease the transaction size. That is really something.

Probably bulletproof will happen at autumn 2018.

Bulletproofs likely to be in the Q1 2018 upgrade.  Not only do they reduce transaction size by 80%, but transaction fees as well, AND the whole process is faster.

Tx fees going from under a buck to under a quarter is alright, I guess. /s

I was very bullish about Monero for q1 and 2 2018, but i didn't have the current fee situation in mind, and this WILL become a problem if its not solved rather quickly. Crypto will accelerate in 2018 we have seen nothing yet and if monero gets to expensive to use just telling people wait for lightning won't cut it. No matter how good the privacy is. i think the community here underestimates the problem of expensive transactions.

Current fee situation is really not bad, if you choose to pay the lower fees.  If you choose higher fees, then that is of course up to you.  Privacy costs a premium, but a very modest one.  Currently a typical simple transaction is under a dollar, if you choose the minimal fee.  With no backlog of tx to process, the lowest fee usually puts you in the next block or two.  Soon, the default fee will be under a dollar, and the cheap seats will go for far less - see above. 

[kurious]

You do know about bulletproofs cutting tx fees by 80% in the next few months, right?

All of the alts are actively working on ways (or already have) to reduce fees and increase scaling. The only crypto that isn't doing anything about it is BTC.

I actually had not thought that bulletproof will decrease the fees also. Will it? But significant is, that it will decrease the transaction size. That is really something.

Probably bulletproof will happen at autumn 2018.

Bulletproofs likely to be in the Q1 2018 upgrade.  Not only do they reduce transaction size by 80%, but transaction fees as well, AND the whole process is faster.

Tx fees going from under a buck to under a quarter is alright, I guess. /s

If bulletproofs is Q1 '18 - that would be wonderful...  Monero's path will accelerate yet again.  I hope you're right.

[cAPSLOCK]

I've been a coinbase customer for four and a half years.  Coinbase is under the thumb of financial authorities.  Recently Coinbase acquiesced to an IRS subpoena for customer records.  Coinbase could have appealed, but they gave in.  Coinbase is such a big, fat target that they are probably afraid to add a coin like Monero.  All the bulldogs and retrograde anti-crypto buttheads like Feinstein and company would be on Coinbase like flies on shit.  Coinbase isn't going to add Monero any time soon.

I disagree.  I understand the sentiment, but in reality AML/KYC compliant exchanges are the governments BEST vector for tracking a true privacy instrument like Monero.  At least then the government can prove the purchase or sale of XMR.  The FEDs should be begging Coinbase to list Monero.

Secondly the view key gives Coinbase the ability to allow for full auditing of their wallets.

 

[kurious]

Bitpay going over to Bcash news is concerning for the CC market's flagship coin.

It does highlight the fees / transaction issue starkly.   I am still pro-core, but they need to get their shit together now.  Segwit was agreed, but it isn't being adopted and isn't even anywhere near a transaction default.  Or a default in wallets.

Exchanges are under huge strain, a lot of new weak hands are in, we are one clusterfuck scandal (tether / major exchange issue / legislation FUD / whatever) away from potential dark times the MSM will leap on.

BTC getting Segwit out properly would help. A lot.  Sorry to be dark, chaps - Monero is going well, but we ride the waves, we don't control them.

[explorer]

If bulletproofs is Q1 '18 - that would be wonderful...  Monero's path will accelerate yet again.  I hope you're right.

Well, it is being bandied about:

https://blockchaind.net/monero-planning-release-bulletproofs-march-2018/

As posted earlier here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg26369765#msg26369765

[leea-1334]

Bitpay going over to Bcash news is concerning for the CC market's flagship coin.

It does highlight the fees / transaction issue starkly.   I am still pro-core, but they need to get their shit together now.  Segwit was agreed, but it isn't being adopted and isn't even anywhere near a transaction default.  Or a default in wallets.

Exchanges are under huge strain, a lot of new weak hands are in, we are one clusterfuck scandal (tether / major exchange issue / legislation FUD / whatever) away from potential dark times the MSM will leap on.

BTC getting Segwit out properly would help. A lot.  Sorry to be dark, chaps - Monero is going well, but we ride the waves, we don't control them.

No need to be sorry for being dark, I also feel the same way. But core has nothing to do with SegWit not being adopted. In fact, they always push exchanges and wallets to use the tech and upgrade. Coinbase for example said, "it would only take months to do this and that why is core taking so long?"

So now SW is ready, the real question is, why are people like Coinbase taking so long to upgrade? Electrum has long already upgraded and made their wallets SW ready. I am waiting and waiting to be able to use my SW addresses.

Core cannot force people to change. They are obviously just lazy and have other agendas. Exchanges are the same, end of the day they want the convenient option. What happens when BCH runs into problems? Maybe they go to a BCH fork?