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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3312246 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (2 posts by 1+ user deleted.)
megadeth
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November 22, 2017, 06:30:32 PM
 #34421

Calmest ATH break I've seen in Cryptoland. People seriously aren't giving a fuck.
No moon rockets, no frenzy.  Grin

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garytheasshole
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November 22, 2017, 06:32:51 PM
 #34422

Not getting excited about ATHs until 2020.

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November 22, 2017, 06:33:15 PM
 #34423

Still climbing against BTC...

我想要火箭和火车
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November 22, 2017, 07:03:03 PM
 #34424

Agreed, that never seems to be the problem, in my eyes at least, Monero seems to be perpetually under priced!

I don't take such talk very seriously.  No judgement - hey, I am pseudonymous because I like to talk smack sometimes myself.

There are ways to put a fundamental value on these things, but any time you start discounting a future expectation the degrees of freedom proliferate, and you can't really marginalize without a proper measure, so it is always a matter if judgement under bounded rationality.  When critical facts are unavailable the picture gets very fuzzy very fast.  For example, how do you pick your holding horizon?  What is the time evolution of the expectation distribution, and what is it's form?  What manner of discounting is rational given other assumptions, and what are the distributions on those assumptions?  Are there discrete or binary scenarios indicating distinct models?  It gets very complicated very fast when you try to account for second- and third-order effects, model switching, etc. - spaghetti plate diagrams, mixing times that go through the roof, computations that can consume millennia of cpu time.  Ugh.  If you can make complementary arguments for parameter bounds, that can clarify things quite surprisingly, sudoku-style, but usually I just go with my first intuition, then try to pull apart the assumptions, and attack or support them with ratiocination, known or inferred facts, and common sense - the sum of which is quite fallible in comparison with MCMC, but at least provides a timely answer, for the most part.  Fisher's law is sound, and creates a moving attractor, but markets are inefficient, mass-market discounting praxis is mostly a mystery, and event-driven jumps remain often unpredictable.

That said, my Fisher estimate for post-MS XMR is 250 USD in April, and 400 a year later, but even if those numbers (probably conservative) are sound attractors, pricing is volatile on speculative runs, accumulation/distribution events, and news, so that I would expect every price between (roughly) 300 and 1000 to be seen at some point in the 4q18-1q19 period.  Dramatic changes in the USD political economy seem likely to drive it higher.


Message received, I have been properly put in my place.

Calmest ATH break I've seen in Cryptoland. People seriously aren't giving a fuck.
No moon rockets, no frenzy.  Grin

That may be due to the fact that most other people here think that Monero has been "perpetually under priced" as well.
 
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November 22, 2017, 07:12:29 PM
 #34425

Calmest ATH break I've seen in Cryptoland. People seriously aren't giving a fuck.
No moon rockets, no frenzy.  Grin
yeah right?

just flying under the radar casually taking the ath with it
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November 22, 2017, 08:28:33 PM
 #34426

Here is some shade tree speculation:

1.  The BTC mempool is being spammed.

https://blockchain.info/address/1D5bPm1YAdn9WvAAixht7PbACU3TtkqtJJ
The attacker started with ~50BTC and is shuffling them off with minimal fees and a possibly erroneous transaction.  That is $400k plus of firepower being played with.

https://blockchain.info/charts/mempool-size?timespan=24h
Note the current rise.

2.  BCH is being bought:
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin-cash/
Look at the 1day chart...  This corresponds to the possible attack on BTC.

So how does this affect moreno?

Recently XMR has been acting as a faithful hedge against BTC.  Generally moving the opposite direction to retain it's USD value.

*IF* this is the beginning of another VER/WU/Falkvinge/Wright attack we should see BTC start taking a hit as traditional markets close and we move into a US holiday time.  If they are half as successful as last time we could see a 20% scoop in BTC.  Add the tether cherry and we might see an afterburner effect.

XMR will do one of two things.  

A. Drop in sympathy with BTC.
B. Continue the trend of holding close to it's USD value (with a -10% range).

I think because of the recent XMR bull we will see the momentum favoring scenario B.

Therefore I expect XMR to gain in BTC value and conservatively push into .0022 to .0024 range during the attack.  I also think a higher range is possible especially depending on the factors.

There. Wink  I jinxed us all!
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November 22, 2017, 08:32:05 PM
 #34427

Moonriders here!

What's going on with monero?

BTC: 16ZegvHooaNNUV7pZPCNoj5QSY5i8Gs6zD
garytheasshole
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November 22, 2017, 08:36:17 PM
 #34428

Moonriders here!

What's going on with monero?
What else would you buy with your bitcoins once you've dumped your tethers?

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November 22, 2017, 09:04:32 PM
 #34429

Moonriders here!

What's going on with monero?

perhaps ledger hardware wallet integration making progress?

otherwise, i think it's one of the best anon coins, and definitely the one with the most traction.
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November 22, 2017, 09:10:08 PM
 #34430

In the end, the cream always rises to the top.

我想要火箭和火车
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November 22, 2017, 09:11:23 PM
 #34431

Is that the Dash rage-dump?

I am going to buy the crap out of this dip...   Wink

我想要火箭和火车
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November 22, 2017, 09:32:49 PM
 #34432

That was fun...  Grin

我想要火箭和火车
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November 22, 2017, 10:05:25 PM
 #34433

0.022 was always a good place to get to at one point. I wonder if it will be anything significant this time?

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November 22, 2017, 10:09:32 PM
 #34434

0.022 was always a good place to get to at one point. I wonder if it will be anything significant this time?



I am pushing - the path of least resistance is UP, and the bots are cannon fodder...

(Now time for a breather)

我想要火箭和火车
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November 22, 2017, 10:11:57 PM
 #34435

Even the "conspiracy theorists" are accepting Monero now, Awesome (don't listen to more than 2 mins 10sec, it will hurt your head)
https://youtu.be/YSn7Iomisyc?t=148


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Monero
"The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine
whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy." 
David Chaum 1996
"Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect."  Adam Back 2014
Buy and sell XMR near you
P2P Exchange Network
Buy XMR with fiat
Is Dash a scam?
megadeth
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November 22, 2017, 10:16:59 PM
 #34436

In advance I want to congratulate the XMR Billionaire Round table members:
fluffypony
smoothie
smooth_xmr
americanpegasus
rangedriver
iCEBREAKER
ArticMine
aminorex
dEBRUYNE
rpietila
Melbustus
explorer
saddambitcoin
luigi1111
nanobrain

and many others i've missed.
The future of Cryptoland is in your hands.  Grin


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November 22, 2017, 10:38:49 PM
 #34437

In advance I want to congratulate the XMR Billionaire Round table members:
fluffypony
smoothie
smooth_xmr
americanpegasus
rangedriver
iCEBREAKER
ArticMine
aminorex
dEBRUYNE
rpietila
Melbustus
explorer
saddambitcoin
luigi1111
nanobrain

and many others i've missed.
The future of Cryptoland is in your hands.  Grin



Hmmm.  So we each have at least 6 million XMR, huh?  Cool. 


(You were never intended to see that rich list!)
smooth (OP)
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November 22, 2017, 10:43:24 PM
 #34438

In advance I want to congratulate the XMR Billionaire Round table members:
fluffypony
smoothie
smooth_xmr
americanpegasus
rangedriver
iCEBREAKER
ArticMine
aminorex
dEBRUYNE
rpietila
Melbustus
explorer
saddambitcoin
luigi1111
nanobrain

and many others i've missed.
The future of Cryptoland is in your hands.  Grin



Hmmm.  So we each have at least 6 million XMR, huh?  Cool. 

In advance I want to congratulate the XMR Billionaire Round table members

Thanks megadeth. I expect you will join us shortly thereafter.
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November 22, 2017, 10:46:38 PM
 #34439


In advance I want to congratulate the XMR Billionaire Round table members

Thanks megadeth. I expect you will join us shortly thereafter.


 details  Wink
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November 22, 2017, 11:29:43 PM
Last edit: November 23, 2017, 12:40:41 AM by iCEBREAKER
 #34440

I cannot understand why dash has any traction.  Can someone ELI5 for me?  It makes me concerned that I may be fundamentally misunderstanding, well, everything.

Deep State support is why Dash has traction.  The ambient greed of local moonchildren is merely a handy force multiplier.

Dash's baffling refusal to deploy warrant canaries is one red flag.  Dash's mysterious immunity from applicable MSB, etc. laws is another one, indicating some kind of secret arrangement between TPTB and the DashCoreGroup entity.  Obviously the Masternode honeypot HYIP is at the center of it all.

You think it's a coincidence that at conferences Duffield is always high on drugs and thus conveniently too stoned to explain the Instamine, Spork backdoor, etc?

TSAs are laundering their narcotic, etc. revenue flows through authoritarian/totalitarian compatible shitcoins like Bailout Ethereum, Dash, and Bcash.

And that's just practice for running the next generation of what Chaum warningly called 'bad digital cash' (such as Stellar, Ripple, and Zcash).

I don't trade shitcoins, but if I did it would behoove me to remember what I'm now calling the Deep State Shitcoin Put (similar to the PPT Bernanke/Greenspan Put and the China Gold Put), which places a floor on how far liberty-incompatible coins can fall before being reused for another round of narco-bankster money laundering via pump and dump.


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Monero
"The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine
whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy." 
David Chaum 1996
"Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect."  Adam Back 2014
Buy and sell XMR near you
P2P Exchange Network
Buy XMR with fiat
Is Dash a scam?
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