[XMR] Monero Speculation

[binaryFate]

[...]
Well the whole purpose of what I was trying to propose was that you can exchange physical cash to XMR.  I personally just don't like having to deal with banks and feel that it is possible that there will be a time where banks will ban, or severely reduce/regulate all transactions to these exchange sites for Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrencies such as XMR.

Yep got that. I was suggesting you'd bring your physical cash in hand at a certain point. (or they pick it up). Just the same but without the safe which does not accomplish anything if you provide the correct amount when you need to.

With the concerns of breaking the "safe" to get cash if XMR prices go south, I feel there can potentially be a way to alert the exchange site if the thing that is collecting the cash has been tampered with in any way; then when that theoretically happens, funds could go out of your cold storage.

If the price goes down, people will happily forget about their "awaiting" XMR and just keep the cash. That is what you should protect against.

I guess you could simply just send cash through mail... but that is a lot less secure I would think.  I wouldn't know what kind of overhead would have to go through all of this, but it was just a thought that I conjured up and wanted to hear what feedback you guys had.  I just feel the same way as others when I hear people say, "Man, I wish I could just convert my cash instantly to [insert coin here]".  It would just be nice to have something sitting in the corner of the room and deposit some change or spare fiat lying around to XMR, and then send it back whenever.  The exchange online would be able to track how much you have purchased at some given time, and then update your account on the exchange site to say you have "this much" XMR.

All this could be accomplished without the safe as I said above. Just click a button on the website that says "Yes I've put X amount of cash aside and will deliver that amount later to get the XMR!". The exchange would protect itself from you never fullfilling that commitment with some initial deposit acting as collateral and limit (per amount and/or per time) on purchase based on that.

[aminorex]

Well the whole purpose of what I was trying to propose was that you can exchange physical cash to XMR.  I personally just don't like having to deal with banks and feel that it is possible that there will be a time where banks will ban, or severely reduce/regulate all transactions to these exchange sites for Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrencies such as XMR.

I absolutely do NOT want to discourage your creative thinking.  

However, I think the problem you describe carries the seeds of its own solution.  Kinda like the Comex running out of gold...price fixes everything: When banks are banning it is because they are threatened.

[aminorex]

How about a cash teleporter?  As a side benefit, you get teleportation technology!  (Speaking of which, wasn't that part of SuperNET?)  

Anyhow, most banks allow you to deposit a check with a photograph.  You can do "remoteMoneros" via email today.  It just needs one person willing to offer the service at a reasonable fee.

Heck, I would do it, if it didn't involve revealing my IRL ID on a platter to random and sundry.

Oh, also, it really requires escrow until the check clears.  So either multisig or a monkey-in-the-middle game.

[phishead]

[...]
Well the whole purpose of what I was trying to propose was that you can exchange physical cash to XMR.  I personally just don't like having to deal with banks and feel that it is possible that there will be a time where banks will ban, or severely reduce/regulate all transactions to these exchange sites for Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrencies such as XMR.

Yep got that. I was suggesting you'd bring your physical cash in hand at a certain point. (or they pick it up). Just the same but without the safe which does not accomplish anything if you provide the correct amount when you need to.

With the concerns of breaking the "safe" to get cash if XMR prices go south, I feel there can potentially be a way to alert the exchange site if the thing that is collecting the cash has been tampered with in any way; then when that theoretically happens, funds could go out of your cold storage.

If the price goes down, people will happily forget about their "awaiting" XMR and just keep the cash. That is what you should protect against.

I guess you could simply just send cash through mail... but that is a lot less secure I would think.  I wouldn't know what kind of overhead would have to go through all of this, but it was just a thought that I conjured up and wanted to hear what feedback you guys had.  I just feel the same way as others when I hear people say, "Man, I wish I could just convert my cash instantly to [insert coin here]".  It would just be nice to have something sitting in the corner of the room and deposit some change or spare fiat lying around to XMR, and then send it back whenever.  The exchange online would be able to track how much you have purchased at some given time, and then update your account on the exchange site to say you have "this much" XMR.

All this could be accomplished without the safe as I said above. Just click a button on the website that says "Yes I've put X amount of cash aside and will deliver that amount later to get the XMR!". The exchange would protect itself from you never fullfilling that commitment with some initial deposit acting as collateral and limit (per amount and/or per time) on purchase based on that.

Ah, ok I see what you are saying now... So I guess the question I have mainly, is how would people deliver their cash to the exchange site to fulfill their promise? Through mail?

[dEBRUYNE]

Frankly, hedge funds won't invest in Monero until they have an easy way to do so where they don't have to worry about storage (e.g. an ETF/ETN). Furthermore, because of the high volatility they likely won't invest more than 0.01% of their portfolio, if even. Moreover, it might be simply too much of a hassle to research for such a small percentage of their portfolio.

Its a tail risk hedge, with incredibly asymmetric return profile.  They understand that.  FX derivative people especially understand it.  The employees will buy it for their own book first.  Then they will offer it to customers if they see a personal benefit in doing so -- that won't be until customers are asking about it though.

I don't disagree with you, XMR probably has a fat tail return distribution which likely is positively skewed as well. I merely noted that it might be too much of a hassle to research initially. Imagine them having to dig through all altcoins to find that one gem (though they probably do this already with equities, but the cryptocurrency atmosphere is pretty novel and buying+storing is significantly more difficult). By contrast, if someone (e.g. Fluffypony) would give a presentation about Monero to them which is easily understandable your scenario is quite plausible.  

[phishead]

How about a cash teleporter?  As a side benefit, you get teleportation technology! (Speaking of which, wasn't that part of SuperNET?)  

Anyhow, most banks allow you to deposit a check with a photograph.  You can do "remoteMoneros" via email today.  It just needs one person willing to offer the service at a reasonable fee.

Heck, I would do it, if it didn't involve revealing my IRL ID on a platter to random and sundry.

Oh, also, it really requires escrow until the check clears.  So either multisig or a monkey-in-the-middle game.

I just lol'd.

I thought of that too... but the problem that comes with that, is that is no different from sending funds from your bank account.  If you write a check and scan it, it will still be associated with your bank account; also if you were to get a check from your employer, it will still have your name on it.  On top of that, that would be no better than from just signing up to bitwage to receive bitcoin as part of your pay check; but then the issue of having to "purchase" bitcoins in order to buy XMR comes back into play.

Damnit science! Why u no let us teleport!?

[aminorex]

By contrast, if someone (e.g. Fluffypony) would give a presentation about Monero to them which is easily understandable your scenario is quite plausible.  

Actually I did this, very informally, a few times back in 2014.  Probably at least one or two of the larger spikes in Summer and Fall of 2014 were at my instigation.  *Every* FX derivatives person I pitched to, bought some, either on their own according to their report, or else from me, OTC.  If I had more time I would pitch more.  FX quants seem to be my natural audience. I am 99.44% sure they are uniformly hodlers, too.

[rpietila]

Dear Risto,
could you be so kind to reevaluate your calculations from April 2015. I think it would be interesting to see what happens to thos assumptions with nearly a year more of MONERO  

I second this request.

By all means if you have time i would like to see this too.  Risto your insight is always helpful to me.

The whole methodology is quoted there; just change the numbers, I hope you do not need me to do it.. 

[flagel8]

How about a cash teleporter?  As a side benefit, you get teleportation technology!  (Speaking of which, wasn't that part of SuperNET?)  

Anyhow, most banks allow you to deposit a check with a photograph.  You can do "remoteMoneros" via email today.  It just needs one person willing to offer the service at a reasonable fee.

Heck, I would do it, if it didn't involve revealing my IRL ID on a platter to random and sundry.

Oh, also, it really requires escrow until the check clears.  So either multisig or a monkey-in-the-middle game.

LOL, that side benefit might collapse society as we know it, but possibly in a good way. Although, we ARE talking about humans: MK1, so maybe not.

There used to be a company in Ottawa which did this. You would sign up on their site with an e-mail address, and request to buy a certain amount of Btc. They would then give you a window, about 2 hours, iirc, and a bank account number to which you would deposit an EXACT AMOUNT - this was key so that they would know which transaction was being funded.

You could also put the money in an envelope, and slide it under their door. You could even mail them money, although the rate would be the one prevailing when they got the cash. And of course, if it went missing, well, too bad. Or you could hand it over to a person behind the counter, if you didn’t mind someone knowing what you looked like.

This functionality was discontinued before the big bubble. Before the introduction of the first Btc Atm. But to avoid the new KYC regs, there was still localbitcoins. Wonder if we’ll see something like that for Monero? And if so, how long a window of usage we’ll have before The Powers That Be (not to be confused with TPTB_need_war) crack down on it?

But there are still Bitcoin Atms. They are still mostly anonymous. The fees are still (mostly) horrendous. A Monero Atm, if marketed right might help in this regard. Although the operator would have a hard time remaining anonymous. Might be doable though.

[Johnny Mnemonic]

Damnit science! Why u no let us teleport!?

If we could teleport cash, we wouldn't need Monero in the first place.

And with cash restrictions on the rise, exploring other methods of acquiring crypto "off the books" may be necessary. In the meantime, I'd say focusing more on creating coinbase-like fiat exchange services will get us further.

[birr]

By contrast, if someone (e.g. Fluffypony) would give a presentation about Monero to them which is easily understandable your scenario is quite plausible.  

Actually I did this, very informally, a few times back in 2014.  Probably at least one or two of the larger spikes in Summer and Fall of 2014 were at my instigation.  *Every* FX derivatives person I pitched to, bought some, either on their own according to their report, or else from me, OTC.  If I had more time I would pitch more.  FX quants seem to be my natural audience. I am 99.44% sure they are uniformly hodlers, too.

[Erik Goff]

Damnit science! Why u no let us teleport!?

If we could teleport cash, we wouldn't need Monero in the first place.

And with cash restrictions on the rise, exploring other methods of acquiring crypto "off the books" may be necessary. In the meantime, I'd say focusing more on creating coinbase-like fiat exchange services will get us further.

We can think of all kinds of complicated systems, but in the end, we just need a mobile wallet which is able to show prices in eur/usd.
Remember the first bitcoin ATM in Vancouver?  there was a story about the shopkeeper seeing his income from the ATM decline, and when he checked it out, he found a guy sitting in front of the ATM undercutting the fee. ( i decided at that point to never invest in any ATM company

At this point in time, people will most likely only buy from other people that are able to explain monero to them. If it is easy enough to trade some by just making the new person install a wallet and sell some OTC, then this can go viral much faster then hoping that a potential buyer checks out internet first to try to locate a seller.
People love cash, if it is easy enough to use, there are only 6 people between you and everyone else.

[aminorex]

People love cash, if it is easy enough to use, there are only 6 people between you and everyone else.

A propos: https://research.facebook.com/blog/three-and-a-half-degrees-of-separation/

...makes me want to cry about my Erdös number.

[GiliBtc]

Discusão curiosa !!! 

[binaryFate]

People love cash, if it is easy enough to use, there are only 6 people between you and everyone else.

A propos: https://research.facebook.com/blog/three-and-a-half-degrees-of-separation/

...makes me want to cry about my Erdös number.

Too bad I'm not in the subset of people with a lower Erdös number than their facebook average degrees of separation, close call.
The former will be probably harder to decrease than the latter.

Surprisingly low numbers computed there, we live an interesting time.

[pa]

People love cash, if it is easy enough to use, there are only 6 people between you and everyone else.

A propos: https://research.facebook.com/blog/three-and-a-half-degrees-of-separation/

...makes me want to cry about my Erdös number.

Too bad I'm not in the subset of people with a lower Erdös number than their facebook average degrees of separation, close call.
The former will be probably harder to decrease than the latter.

Surprisingly low numbers computed there, we live an interesting time.

Which helps to contextualize this: http://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2013/07/you-may-already-be-a-winner-in-nsas-three-degrees-surveillance-sweepstakes/

[nioc]

volume down, sell wall pulled, 43K buy wall at 250, current price 260.

I don't know what to make of these changes.

No more btc on exchange.  Wondering whether to send more.  btc blockchain currently not being spammed.

[nioc]

Monerodice has the option to deposit via ShapeShift.  Bullish

[aminorex]

Discusão curiosa !!! 

Bem vinda. Lamento que eu não falo Português. Mas parece que você obter algum gozo a partir da discussão Inglês, então nem tudo está perdido.

[nioc]

As suspected when the sells got close the 43K wall was pulled.  Once again big wall = fake

I have 2 confirms on my deposit