[XMR] Monero Speculation

[aerbax]

(Crosspost from the main Monero thread)

Swalecko on Reddit has posted some news regarding the official GUI.  It looks like things are progressing nicely.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/4dl7vz/great_process_on_the_official_gui/

It looks like the text was cut-and-pasted from a spreadsheet, so the details may be difficult to read.  I've taken the data and reformatted it into something a little easier on the eyes.

https://hellomonero.com/article/update-official-monero-gui

[1714882461]

1714882461

[1714882461]

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[1714882461]

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[1714882461]

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[1714882461]

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[lolikop]

There is a guy lending 40.000 XMR for 0.02% knowing polo could be hacked tomorrow, or the admin deciding to go scam

Isnt this just plain stupidity ?

[explorer]

2016-04-06 21:45:01   183182.15180800   0.00000000   0.4243% / 0%
2016-04-06 21:44:01   183527.96975400   0.00000000   0.4317% / 0%
2016-04-06 21:43:01   198855.86389800   0.00000000   0.4336% / 0%
2016-04-06 21:42:02   199549.66811200   0.00000000   0.3986% / 0%

15k got removed from lending at suspiciously the same time we had a 15k dump. Must just be coincidence, right?

Another 10K, but stacked on the front lines of the asking, instead of dumped.  Interesting choices.  Can't wait to see how it all plays out!

[DaveyJones]

There is a guy lending 40.000 XMR for 0.02% knowing polo could be hacked tomorrow, or the admin deciding to go scam

Isnt this just plain stupidity ?

Or maybe its polo´s own funds? maybe same kind like ?kraken? where there is margin but no lending so it has to come from the site itself ... i don´t im just speculating

[explorer]

There is a guy lending 40.000 XMR for 0.02% knowing polo could be hacked tomorrow, or the admin deciding to go scam

Isnt this just plain stupidity ?

Risking for that kind of dust seems like a poor choice.  I chased dust for a bit out of boredom, but really it is not worth the effort.

[explorer]

There is a guy lending 40.000 XMR for 0.02% knowing polo could be hacked tomorrow, or the admin deciding to go scam

Isnt this just plain stupidity ?

Or maybe its polo´s own funds? maybe same kind like ?kraken? where there is margin but no lending so it has to come from the site itself ... i don´t im just speculating

 Staying out and letting rates rise would be far more profitable, given their 15% take.  Forcing rates down to negligible levels like this would be self defeating.

[dEBRUYNE]

There is a guy lending 40.000 XMR for 0.02% knowing polo could be hacked tomorrow, or the admin deciding to go scam

Isnt this just plain stupidity ?

Risking for that kind of dust seems like a poor choice.  I chased dust for a bit out of boredom, but really it is not worth the effort.

Could also be done to trap shorters. That is, first loan out a substantial amount at a relatively low rate for a short timeframe (e.g. 2 days). These rates will look attractable to shorters and thus many traders will seek the opportunity to short, certainly because we are only slightly below a resistance level. Subsequently, you can offer a similiar size loan at a way higher rate (e.g. 0.2%). The shorter has to either take on this loan to keep his position open or close his position.

In addition, the low rates could also be used to get some "fuel" for the next leg up. I use the term "fuel" here because eventually shorters have to close their position and it this is done via market buying it could be classified as "fuel".

[americanpegasus]

120k sell wall is back for some more financial terrorism, hoping to press down on any buying pressure whatsoever.  This is his last chance to make this look like a repeat of last year before the truth is revealed.

[Monerobuyer0]

Could also be done to trap shorters. That is, first loan out a substantial amount at a relatively low rate for a short timeframe (e.g. 2 days). These rates will look attractable to shorters and thus many traders will seek the opportunity to short, certainly because we are only slightly below a resistance level. Subsequently, you can offer a similiar size loan at a way higher rate (e.g. 0.2%). The shorter has to either take on this loan to keep his position open or close his position.

No they dont.  Once the loan time ends (lets say it was a loan at .02%), it automatically tries to find them new loans at .02% or less and takes those.  If it cannot, it put up a loan demand order at .02%, that anyone can fill.

Until someone fills that, they pay no interest at all to hold the short open.  Once its filed they pay .02% again.


It sounds dumb, but I believe that is how it works from my experience.  Anyone offering low rates in an attempt to trap shorts by later increasing their rates is doing it wrong.  All they are doing is giving away low rates.  The correct play is to only offer coins at high rates, and to increase the time limit from 2 days to a higher number to trap them at high rates longer.

[vuduchyld]

So insane.  Really?  A sell wall worth more than $100K at .0037?

SO CLEAR that somebody wants to buy low.

[Dotto]

Could also be done to trap shorters. That is, first loan out a substantial amount at a relatively low rate for a short timeframe (e.g. 2 days). These rates will look attractable to shorters and thus many traders will seek the opportunity to short, certainly because we are only slightly below a resistance level. Subsequently, you can offer a similiar size loan at a way higher rate (e.g. 0.2%). The shorter has to either take on this loan to keep his position open or close his position.

No they dont.  Once the loan time ends (lets say it was a loan at .02%), it automatically tries to find them new loans at .02% or less and takes those.  If it cannot, it put up a loan demand order at .02%, that anyone can fill.

Until someone fills that, they pay no interest at all to hold the short open.  Once its filed they pay .02% again.


It sounds dumb, but I believe that is how it works from my experience.  Anyone offering low rates in an attempt to trap shorts by later increasing their rates is doing it wrong.  All they are doing is giving away low rates.  The correct play is to only offer coins at high rates, and to increase the time limit from 2 days to a higher number to trap them at high rates longer.

If it were true, Polo would be running a fractionary reserve scheme, so I don´t think it works like this. I guess once the loan time ends the system automaticly loans the next best offer so they don´t do the fractionary reserve thing and keep gaining his 15% cut. Otherwise it would be risky for them and would gain less interest

[bobabouey2]

Could also be done to trap shorters. That is, first loan out a substantial amount at a relatively low rate for a short timeframe (e.g. 2 days). These rates will look attractable to shorters and thus many traders will seek the opportunity to short, certainly because we are only slightly below a resistance level. Subsequently, you can offer a similiar size loan at a way higher rate (e.g. 0.2%). The shorter has to either take on this loan to keep his position open or close his position.

No they dont.  Once the loan time ends (lets say it was a loan at .02%), it automatically tries to find them new loans at .02% or less and takes those.  If it cannot, it put up a loan demand order at .02%, that anyone can fill.

Until someone fills that, they pay no interest at all to hold the short open.  Once its filed they pay .02% again.


It sounds dumb, but I believe that is how it works from my experience.  Anyone offering low rates in an attempt to trap shorts by later increasing their rates is doing it wrong.  All they are doing is giving away low rates.  The correct play is to only offer coins at high rates, and to increase the time limit from 2 days to a higher number to trap them at high rates longer.

With all due respect, I can't imagine that is what happens.  If it is, then it is one more compelling reason to get your crypto off of Poloniex.

Plus, it would be completely game-able.  Find someone to lend you an amount for just a day at an absurdly low rate, without auto-renew.  According to your logic, you then have a perpetual loan at that artificially low rate as no-one will match it.

[explorer]

Could also be done to trap shorters. That is, first loan out a substantial amount at a relatively low rate for a short timeframe (e.g. 2 days). These rates will look attractable to shorters and thus many traders will seek the opportunity to short, certainly because we are only slightly below a resistance level. Subsequently, you can offer a similiar size loan at a way higher rate (e.g. 0.2%). The shorter has to either take on this loan to keep his position open or close his position.

No they dont.  Once the loan time ends (lets say it was a loan at .02%), it automatically tries to find them new loans at .02% or less and takes those.  If it cannot, it put up a loan demand order at .02%, that anyone can fill.

Until someone fills that, they pay no interest at all to hold the short open.  Once its filed they pay .02% again.


It sounds dumb, but I believe that is how it works from my experience.  Anyone offering low rates in an attempt to trap shorts by later increasing their rates is doing it wrong.  All they are doing is giving away low rates.  The correct play is to only offer coins at high rates, and to increase the time limit from 2 days to a higher number to trap them at high rates longer.

No.   If you originally requested .02, it will que until there is a taker, but if your .02 goes full term, it automatically loads the lowest available loan(s) to maintain your position, be it .001 or 5%.  With such a large pool, it would be near impossible to game that way. All you could do would be to ensure it is cheap for shorters to do their thing, and then sit and catch everything dumped to you at nice low levels before you have to up-level.  Look familliar? Combined with a nice big sell wall, it could take a while to fully milk the shorters, but eventually they will catch on.

[luigi1111]

...whereas horizontal supports are much more clear and thus objective in my opinion.

So they are more objective, subjectively? 

[iCEBREAKER]

There is a guy lending 40.000 XMR for 0.02% knowing polo could be hacked tomorrow, or the admin deciding to go scam

Isnt this just plain stupidity ?

It might be plain stupidity, but remember banks and other loan sharks often rope in suckers by using an introductory "teaser" rate, because they may count on people getting in over their heads being forced into much higher "balloon" payments.

Same principle as the crack/smack dealer.  First hit is free, because they know you'll be back for more and willing to pay anything.

Or there may be a whale that wants to add 40k XMR to their stack without moving the market up, so BullWhale offers that many for shorters, fulling intending to buy them back as they dump (possibly triggering stops and margin calls for an ever better deal).

[explorer]

There is a guy lending 40.000 XMR for 0.02% knowing polo could be hacked tomorrow, or the admin deciding to go scam

Isnt this just plain stupidity ?

It might be plain stupidity, but remember banks and other loan sharks often rope in suckers by using an introductory "teaser" rate, because they may count on people getting in over their heads being forced into much higher "balloon" payments.

Same principle as the crack/smack dealer.  First hit is free, because they know you'll be back for more and willing to pay anything.

Or there may be a whale that wants to add 40k XMR to their stack without moving the market up, so BullWhale offers that many for shorters, fulling intending to buy them back as they dump (possibly triggering stops and margin calls for an ever better deal).

Rates down to central banker levels  (0.0013%).  NIRP on the horizon! 

[iCEBREAKER]

There is a guy lending 40.000 XMR for 0.02% knowing polo could be hacked tomorrow, or the admin deciding to go scam

Isnt this just plain stupidity ?

It might be plain stupidity, but remember banks and other loan sharks often rope in suckers by using an introductory "teaser" rate, because they may count on people getting in over their heads being forced into much higher "balloon" payments.

Same principle as the crack/smack dealer.  First hit is free, because they know you'll be back for more and willing to pay anything.

Or there may be a whale that wants to add 40k XMR to their stack without moving the market up, so BullWhale offers that many for shorters, fulling intending to buy them back as they dump (possibly triggering stops and margin calls for an ever better deal).

Rates down to central banker levels  (0.0013%).  NIRP on the horizon! 

Lending demand seems very inelastic w/r/t price, in that when there is no demand it doesn't matter how cheap you offer loans and when demand is high borrowers aren't sensitive about rates (probably because they intend to close them in a few hours or at most days).

[americanpegasus]

Yes, having been on both sides of the fence I can tell you the lending rates battling that goes on to try to undercut the next lender is a giant waste of time.  You are just putting money in the speculator's pockets.  A speculator don't care - if he thinks a position is good enough to take margin on, he assumes there will be enough profit to make any interest paid trivial (even ridiculous rates like half a percent).  He is focused on price action, and will pay the asking rate for a loan without sweating it too much. 
 
So it makes no sense to ever offer any kind of lending for less than 10 bips, even though I know people won't listen.

[persiancat]

Report on blockchain usage by banks.
Blythe Masters is formerly CIO of JPM and creator of CDS.
One of the more notable female figures in finance.

http://www.c-n-b-c.com/2016/04/06/blockchain-in-banks-a-reality-in-less-than-2-years-blythe-masters.html

EDIT : hey what happened. why does it say "suspicious link removed"? It's a report from CNBC.

EDIT 2 : solved the puzzle. I think bitcointalk blacklisted the "[Suspicious link removed]" domain. Just remove the dashes from CNBC when using the above link.

[americanpegasus]

I don't trust Ms. Masters and neither does Bitcoin Talk apparently.