[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Globb0]

Really, I was about to buy more as a early investor been waiting for a while.

/Globb

[1714695318]

1714695318

[1714695318]

1714695318

[dEBRUYNE]

Monero is nice but will get hit so hard when Zerocash launches that you will all regret not getting out when you had the chance.

Meh, stop spreading FUD please. Readers might be interested in the following threads:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/41vg68/monero_vs_zcash_eli5_fundamental_differences/

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/4bu212/zcash_enables_the_highest_level_of_privacy/

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/48nf4o/the_zcash_catch_monero_mentioned/

https://blog.okturtles.com/2016/03/the-zcash-catch/

[noobtrader]

Monero is nice but will get hit so hard when Zerocash launches that you will all regret not getting out when you had the chance.

Meh, stop spreading FUD please. Readers might be interested in the following threads:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/41vg68/monero_vs_zcash_eli5_fundamental_differences/

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/4bu212/zcash_enables_the_highest_level_of_privacy/

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/48nf4o/the_zcash_catch_monero_mentioned/

https://blog.okturtles.com/2016/03/the-zcash-catch/

im more concerned about monero's security when quantum computing makes a breakthrough.. 

[generalizethis]

...

Are there any good threads, sites or books dedicated to this subject? I'm between chapbooks and my new obsession is learning how a trustelessly decentralized cryptosystem would look in theory and in practice.

It is more like the story is being written as we speak and Monero is the only coin in the top 20 by by market capitalization that has a solution. The question of a market based solution to scalability and the related issue of spam was not part of Bitcoin's initial design. The 1 MB blocksize was added to Bitcoin in 2010 as an anti spam "temporary" fix. Virtually every other coin has copied Bitcoin on this and inherited the problem.

Edit: My take is that the Monero community will likely write the book on the subject.

While I don't disagree, I'd like to better follow the story as it's being written. 

[dEBRUYNE]

Monero is nice but will get hit so hard when Zerocash launches that you will all regret not getting out when you had the chance.

Meh, stop spreading FUD please. Readers might be interested in the following threads:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/41vg68/monero_vs_zcash_eli5_fundamental_differences/

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/4bu212/zcash_enables_the_highest_level_of_privacy/

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/48nf4o/the_zcash_catch_monero_mentioned/

https://blog.okturtles.com/2016/03/the-zcash-catch/

im more concerned about monero's security when quantum computing makes a breakthrough.. 

I have a feeling that we have more important things to worry about in that case.

[vokain]

Monero is nice but will get hit so hard when Zerocash launches that you will all regret not getting out when you had the chance.

Meh, stop spreading FUD please. Readers might be interested in the following threads:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/41vg68/monero_vs_zcash_eli5_fundamental_differences/

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/4bu212/zcash_enables_the_highest_level_of_privacy/

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/48nf4o/the_zcash_catch_monero_mentioned/

https://blog.okturtles.com/2016/03/the-zcash-catch/

im more concerned about monero's security when quantum computing makes a breakthrough..  

I have a feeling that we have more important things to worry about in that case.

and/or maybe not!

[dEBRUYNE]

Monero is nice but will get hit so hard when Zerocash launches that you will all regret not getting out when you had the chance.

Meh, stop spreading FUD please. Readers might be interested in the following threads:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/41vg68/monero_vs_zcash_eli5_fundamental_differences/

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/4bu212/zcash_enables_the_highest_level_of_privacy/

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/48nf4o/the_zcash_catch_monero_mentioned/

https://blog.okturtles.com/2016/03/the-zcash-catch/

im more concerned about monero's security when quantum computing makes a breakthrough..  

I have a feeling that we have more important things to worry about in that case.

and/or maybe not!

Hey at least we can finally see Satoshi moving his coins :-P

[sandiman]

Is it really risky to loan XMR (or other cryptocurrencies) ? how likely is it that someone won't pay you back?

If you have no collateral and you are giving out a personal loan it is very likely not to get your money back.
However, if you have collateral you significiantly lower the risk of default. Yes you might have some risk (like the collateral is not good enough in case of forced liquidation) or the service operator will go to bankcrupt (like Gox did with btc).

How does it work with the collateral in Poloniex ? is it possible to have one but get a lower interest rate (I don't have account there and lending would be the only reason)? thanks for the help.

https://poloniex.com/support/aboutMarginTrading/

Thank you for that.

I had a look and I am now checking the loan markets, which has hardly demand for all the coins present. Is this normal or I checked at the wrong time?

Various enormously depending on market conditions.

Thank you for the quick answer. I will keep an eye on the lending market from now on.

I am using lending market to analyze the overall atmosphere. When rates  are low it means the shorter community thinks the price is low and odds for further decline are  limited.

Hi, being very new to lending market, I was wondering how to determine when rates are low? I believe poloniex does not show a historic of the rate ?

[TrueCryptonaire]

Is it really risky to loan XMR (or other cryptocurrencies) ? how likely is it that someone won't pay you back?

If you have no collateral and you are giving out a personal loan it is very likely not to get your money back.
However, if you have collateral you significiantly lower the risk of default. Yes you might have some risk (like the collateral is not good enough in case of forced liquidation) or the service operator will go to bankcrupt (like Gox did with btc).

How does it work with the collateral in Poloniex ? is it possible to have one but get a lower interest rate (I don't have account there and lending would be the only reason)? thanks for the help.

https://poloniex.com/support/aboutMarginTrading/

Thank you for that.

I had a look and I am now checking the loan markets, which has hardly demand for all the coins present. Is this normal or I checked at the wrong time?

Various enormously depending on market conditions.

Thank you for the quick answer. I will keep an eye on the lending market from now on.

I am using lending market to analyze the overall atmosphere. When rates  are low it means the shorter community thinks the price is low and odds for further decline are  limited.

Hi, being very new to lending market, I was wondering how to determine when rates are low? I believe poloniex does not show a historic of the rate ?

Personally I consider a low rate at a rate that is below inflation. Inflation with XMR is almost 0.1  daily so below that is low and higher than this gives you some real return over inflation as well.

However, XMR is in so early stage that this type of analysis might be irrelevant and more in academic level than in practical level.

[Mr Felt]

Monero is nice but will get hit so hard when Zerocash launches that you will all regret not getting out when you had the chance.

Meh, stop spreading FUD please. Readers might be interested in the following threads:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/41vg68/monero_vs_zcash_eli5_fundamental_differences/

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/4bu212/zcash_enables_the_highest_level_of_privacy/

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/48nf4o/the_zcash_catch_monero_mentioned/

https://blog.okturtles.com/2016/03/the-zcash-catch/

Good and substantive info in those threads, thanks for posting those.

[Nxtblg]

Too many smart players and knowledge of the playing field for starters but you could right a whole whitepaper on XMR trading patterns and still nothing can be predict the future analytics of it.

That's absolutely right, due to the simple fact that the activity of we humans are unpredictable when they're agglomerated into a single process like a market. We ordinarily act "at the margin," which means that we act according to what's in front of us at the time. How we act two years from now, to a great extent, depends upon what relevant facts are extant two years from now. There's no such thing as a "fact from the future."

With ordinary goods and services, this point isn't a big deal. But when it comes to investments, it is a big deal even though investments vary stability-wise. (There's a very good chance that a boring old electric-utility company will still be doin' its thing fifty years from now.)

But when it comes to a speculative asset, whose value depends on its utility in the future, this point is a really big deal. Who in 2010 had any idea that Bitcoin would be >$1000 at the beginning of 2014? And who at the beginning of 2014 had any idea that Bitcoin would be ~$450 on April 22, 2016?

The efficient-market hypothesis, which says that all future market moves are random and implies that predicting markets is nothing more than falling into the Gamers' Fallacy, it not accurate but it's wise. Believing that it's true, if only as a cautionary, does wise you up.

[sandiman]

...

Personally I consider a low rate at a rate that is below inflation. Inflation with XMR is almost 0.1  daily so below that is low and higher than this gives you some real return over inflation as well.

However, XMR is in so early stage that this type of analysis might be irrelevant and more in academic level than in practical level.

Ok thank you again for the precious help

[Hueristic]

Really, I was about to buy more as a early investor been waiting for a while.

/Globb

Actually it will be quite the opposite. Once everyone that is waiting on it starts to look into they will find Monero and once you compare the two there is a clear choice and it's not Vaporware at the moment.

Monero is nice but will get hit so hard when Zerocash launches that you will all regret not getting out when you had the chance.

Meh, stop spreading FUD please. Readers might be interested in the following threads:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/41vg68/monero_vs_zcash_eli5_fundamental_differences/

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/4bu212/zcash_enables_the_highest_level_of_privacy/

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/48nf4o/the_zcash_catch_monero_mentioned/

https://blog.okturtles.com/2016/03/the-zcash-catch/

im more concerned about monero's security when quantum computing makes a breakthrough.. 

It's called "Planned Hard Forks". And once that happens there will be a serious issue throughout the entire world. And that is why the NSA will release a new suite. The only issue will be waiting on credible cryptographers to vet the new offerings for those insidious backdoors. and in the mean time suite B should be tough enough to hold back a first generation of QC.

...
Hi, being very new to lending market, I was wondering how to determine when rates are low? I believe poloniex does not show a historic of the rate ?

For some reason XMR holders are morons when it comes to lending. BTC,ETH are at about .04% while dumb ass XMR lenders are fighting with each other below .01! Of course who would short XMR right now

https://www.poloniex.com/lending#XMR

[TechorMarketing]

...
Hi, being very new to lending market, I was wondering how to determine when rates are low? I believe poloniex does not show a historic of the rate ?

For some reason XMR holders are morons when it comes to lending. BTC,ETH are at about .04% while dumb ass XMR lenders are fighting with each other below .01! Of course who would short XMR right now

https://www.poloniex.com/lending#XMR

It is pretty crazy. At some point (at very low interest rates) the risk of loss (account or exchange hacking, sudden market crash resulting in insufficient collateral for loan repayment, etc) is too much to make lending worthwhile.

[iCEBREAKER]

If Bitcoin had allowed the blocksize to grow back in 2012 - 2013, the Chinese ASIC manufacturer's would have been forced to sell their ASICs for export rather than operate them themselves locally and this would have prevented the concentration of Bitcoin mining in China.

This is just not true for numerous reasons.  You're basically saying we needed to spam blocks with bogus transactions for years on end to prevent an ASIC empire from growing in China.  If a larger block size existed allowing people to do things like this, people would have implemented something like a hard coded min transaction fee or just lowered block size to fight against it.  ASICs in China isn't a big problem because it's just a symptom of everything on earth being manufactured in China.  This will inevitably cease to exist through either tariffs or war.

The Sinophobic Yellow Peril nonsense isn't supposed to be true, it's supposed to be an indictment of the ostensibly horrible job Core is doing.

The other untrue part of his post was a regurgitated talking point about 1MB "stagnating."

The "Ode to 1MB Stagnation" song playing on AM's tiny violin get funnier the more obviously at odds to reality it becomes.

https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/pull/7910

*STAGNATION INTENSIFIES*

 

[TPTB_need_war]

The other untrue part of his post was a regurgitated talking point about 1MB "stagnating."

The "Ode to 1MB Stagnation" song playing on AM's tiny violin get funnier the more obviously at odds to reality it becomes.

https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/pull/7910

*STAGNATION INTENSIFIES*

 

Segregated Witness is just another way to centralize mining. I will explain that in the future when I am ready.

[TPTB_need_war]

Are there any good threads, sites or books dedicated to this subject? I'm between chapbooks and my new obsession is learning how a trustelessly decentralized cryptosystem would look in theory and in practice.

There is my Decentralization delusion thread and also r0ach's Satoshi didn't solve the Byzantine Generals Problem thread which I contributed to significantly. But this will probably read like technobabble to you. The organization is not good.

I will come back to this with an organized white paper when I am ready. Sorry can't do right now. Other priorities come first.

[ArticMine]

...

Segregated Witness is just another way to centralize mining. I will explain that in the future when I am ready.

... but that is a small price to pay in order to increase the blocksize from 1 MB to an effective 1.6 MB  

Edit: There are those of use who believe that the worldwide market for a decentralized crypto currency is bigger than a few transactions per second.

[iCEBREAKER]

The 1 MB blocksize was added to Bitcoin in 2010 as an anti spam "temporary" fix. Virtually every other coin has copied Bitcoin on this and inherited the problem.

That's half true.  1MB also serves as a sanity check to prevent blocks with sigops construed so as to require outrageous processing times.

That's why BIP109 includes sigop and sighash limits, which are an unwelcome source of additional technical debt and magic-number-based cruft.

Bitcoin has a fixed emission with no tail-end after the main body of subsidies end, so it cannot use dynamic market-based Monero-style block sizing heuristics (unless we raise the 21e6 coin limit, which is simply out of the question).

[TPTB_need_war]

unless we raise the 21e6 coin limit, which is simply out of the question

You mean the asymptotic 0 coin limit. Hehe. (coins are lost perpetually until there are no more spendable coins)

Got Monero?