[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Cryptobro]

Lol, if capslock was actually supporting what I said, this individual is terrible at sarcasm. Telling someone is full of shit is terrible way to tell someone you support what they are saying. XD

He's saying primer is/was 'full of shit' dude.

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[nanobrain]

Sold all my XMR @ .0121 avg, 572btc worth. Will buy it all back at .005

Good luck, not gonna happen. Doubt we will see 0121 again even

We'll see. When people say things like it'll never go below X that's exactly when it tends to happen.

Going down to .005 seems too drastic at this point but I wouldn't rule out a retracement to 0.008-0.009

I am 99% sure you never get it back at .005 ever. I am going to call it early and say you made one of the worst decisions of your life selling quite early. Nor do I ever see Monero (XMR) going back to previous levels. I see a general gradual upward trend that is only continuing.

Don't worry he will be back to tell us that he sold all his monero the next time he thinks were at a top.  He completely full of shit.

If you research my posts and you were informed, I predicted Ethereum would go from $1 to $10-$20. Here I am sitting on millions of dollars of various currency of monies while you are talking about something you have no idea about and putting words in my mouth. Get your shit straight. I'll listen to my own intuition and logic while I ignored your completely stupid one.

@Duomo,  I'm not sure but it seems like you are picking a fight with capslock, who was actually supporting what you said.

Lol, if capslock was actually supporting what I said, this individual is terrible at sarcasm. Telling someone is full of shit is terrible way to tell someone you support what they are saying. XD

Its not sarcasm.  His and he are pronouns referring to Primer.

If you really are sitting on 'millions', take care...

[primer-]

Sold all my XMR @ .0121 avg, 572btc worth. Will buy it all back at .005

Good luck, not gonna happen. Doubt we will see 0121 again even

We'll see. When people say things like it'll never go below X that's exactly when it tends to happen.

Going down to .005 seems too drastic at this point but I wouldn't rule out a retracement to 0.008-0.009

I am 99% sure you never get it back at .005 ever. I am going to call it early and say you made one of the worst decisions of your life selling quite early. Nor do I ever see Monero (XMR) going back to previous levels. I see a general gradual upward trend that is only continuing.

Don't worry he will be back to tell us that he sold all his monero the next time he thinks were at a top.  He completely full of shit.

I've been mining this shitcoin since its launch, at times I had more than 15% of total hash rate, currently its over 2%.  I must have sold well over 300k XMR so far, 46k i sold for 550btc was all that was left (sold 150k+ in September 2015 to buy Ethereum, currently holding 70,000 eth).

Ethereum will eventually release a ring signatures dapp, when that happens prepare for a mega dump

[rpietila]

Rpietila/Wise Ones do you still concider 0.01 level to be a realistic dump level? Or is the dump that low anymore possible. Monero has broken pretty much every scenario that i know or am i just looking at this thing on a too short time-frame.

Yes, I am a fan of support/resistance levels theory still, and Fibonacci levels also, and to some extent Elliot waves. And the most I like scenario/probability  analysis.

Let's revisit my "original" reactions to the sudden rise that followed the breaching of the .0042 resistance:

Well it sure looked special, turning half of the existing XMR in 24 hours. Reminds me of the Mintpal pump.

That said, I believe much good was achieved regardless of anything. It is possible that this was the first real upleg. Or even if we fall back, I believe 420k will now be a strong support. Even going to 180-240k, nothing new there. Not many thought it possible to revisit 100k, yet even that happened!

Everything is possible, but I believe the most likely scenario is 2nd Fibonacci retracement of the newest move. The move looks like a double top, also bouncing down from the Mintpal resistance level, so is technically bearish now.

The top is visible (0.00938), but the startpoint of the move is more difficult, can be at least 0.00100, 0.00161, 0.00263. Depending which one we take, the retracement bottom should be somewhere between 0.00420 to 0.00520.

Retracing to that price range and bouncing back up, is also supported by theory that the secular resistance in 0.00420 has become a support due to the breach in high volume. The support must be tested, after which the rise can continue.

The consolidation continues. I am inclined to see 0.008-0.0085 as a short term resistance now. Unless we get there in 2 days, this is confirmed, and the 0.01 double top is confirmed as well (2014,2016).

If we resume the grinding slide that I am forecasting, it may take months to reach the target 0.0042. And of course there is never a guarantee that it is reached. If great news come, it is likely to throw the grind scenario out of the window.

The speculator must take into account all price scenarios, and ensure that none of them is ruinous.

And then after the second breakout, making an ATH in the process:

What happened to waiting until the price drops to the .004s?

That was one very valid and probable scenario, considering XMR price history since the beginning.

Now, the likelihood of going back to 0.004 is not large anymore.

If someone has sold speculatively, or wants to enter, it might be better to buy than wait for an uncertain meagre drop in price.

The people who bought BTC at $7 did very well.

Why changed my mind so soon?

1. I did not. It was all scenario thinking all the time. This scenario leaves no prisoners so better adapt quickly.

2. The influx of so many new people in the scene, who do not know or care about me, proves the growth (and is liberating)

3. The volume was/is huge. At first I took it as proof of artificial manipulation, but now it's at least possible the volume is real growth. If so, we are still much behind the equilibrium value.


So going back to 0.004 is not very likely. After only a few hours after breaking the ATH, I am leaning towards the negative scenario being 0.01 now.

My original probabilities when there was the breakout from 0.004 but initial failure to make an ATH:
- 30% that the ATH will be made without serious retracement
- 50% that there will be a retracement to the 0.004 zone but it will generally hold and become a confirmed support
- 20% that 0.004 will not hold and we go back to the previous trading range and all the 50k volume pump is a false breakout.

Here I told to refrain from buying, because it is 70% probability that we turn down, and if we do, the gain is at least double in the amount. If, on the other hand, the ATH is breached, I told in advance to FOMO, because that would confirm the first scenario that you do not want to miss out.


Currently it's hard to form scenarios because we are in uncharted waters but something like:

- 30% rise will continue without longer pullback, only flashcrashes
- 30% consolidation at 0.01 to confirm that as support, or staying in 0.01-0.02 range
- 40% we go lower than 0.01 (because it was a pump, or BTC rallies, or many reasons)

Despite that I forecast 70% probability for a decline and only 30% for the rise, I still exhort to buy or at least hold, because there is no limit to the upside in the positive scenario, yet the negative ones are very well contained, and even if they happen, you still hold the XMR and it will go back up later.

[obit33]

I must have sold well over 300k XMR so far, 46k i sold for 550btc was all that was left (sold 150k+ in September 2015 to buy Ethereum, currently holding 70,000 eth).

nice way to let everyone know that you're an idiot who sold way to early...

edit: chart for fun:



best regards

[primer-]

I must have sold well over 300k XMR so far, 46k i sold for 550btc was all that was left (sold 150k+ in September 2015 to buy Ethereum, currently holding 70,000 eth).

nice way to let everyone know that you're an idiot who sold way to early...

best regards

The only clueless idiot here is you. I've made a fortune on ethereum - wouldn't have happened if i hadn't sold shitcoin monero.

[obit33]

I must have sold well over 300k XMR so far, 46k i sold for 550btc was all that was left (sold 150k+ in September 2015 to buy Ethereum, currently holding 70,000 eth).

nice way to let everyone know that you're an idiot who sold way to early...

best regards

The only clueless idiot here is you. I've made a fortune on ethereum - wouldn't have happened if i hadn't sold shitcoin monero.

Time will tell, but I think the xmr-chart looks much nicer

[Furi Bliz]

Rpietila thanks for your thoughts. 

[nanobrain]

Rpietila thanks for your thoughts. 

Basically...

[Furi Bliz]

[antw081]

Sold all my XMR @ .0121 avg, 572btc worth. Will buy it all back at .005

Good luck, not gonna happen. Doubt we will see 0121 again even

We'll see. When people say things like it'll never go below X that's exactly when it tends to happen.

Going down to .005 seems too drastic at this point but I wouldn't rule out a retracement to 0.008-0.009

I am 99% sure you never get it back at .005 ever. I am going to call it early and say you made one of the worst decisions of your life selling quite early. Nor do I ever see Monero (XMR) going back to previous levels. I see a general gradual upward trend that is only continuing.

Don't worry he will be back to tell us that he sold all his monero the next time he thinks were at a top.  He completely full of shit.

If you research my posts and you were informed, I predicted Ethereum would go from $1 to $10-$20. Here I am sitting on millions of dollars of various currency of monies while you are talking about something you have no idea about and putting words in my mouth. Get your shit straight. I'll listen to my own intuition and logic while I ignored your completely stupid one.

@Duomo,  I'm not sure but it seems like you are picking a fight with capslock, who was actually supporting what you said.

Lol, if capslock was actually supporting what I said, this individual is terrible at sarcasm. Telling someone is full of shit is terrible way to tell someone you support what they are saying. XD

@Duomo, cAPSLOCK is definitely referring to primer~, not you.

Read his post again. cAPSLOCK is trying to tell you to ignore primer~ as primer~ is full of shit. There is no sarcasm.

If you check primer~ post history, I think you will also agree with cAPSLOCK's statement.

The best thing to do is to put primer~ on ignore, as most people have already done.

[Billy Bunter]

According to Roger Ver, Bloomberg is writing an article on Monero today:

https://forum.bitcoin.com/monero/monero-price-speculation-thread-t10274.html#p29070

Could be another big day for Monero.

[cAPSLOCK]

Sold all my XMR @ .0121 avg, 572btc worth. Will buy it all back at .005

Good luck, not gonna happen. Doubt we will see 0121 again even

We'll see. When people say things like it'll never go below X that's exactly when it tends to happen.

Going down to .005 seems too drastic at this point but I wouldn't rule out a retracement to 0.008-0.009

I am 99% sure you never get it back at .005 ever. I am going to call it early and say you made one of the worst decisions of your life selling quite early. Nor do I ever see Monero (XMR) going back to previous levels. I see a general gradual upward trend that is only continuing.

Don't worry he will be back to tell us that he sold all his monero the next time he thinks were at a top.  He completely full of shit.

If you research my posts and you were informed, I predicted Ethereum would go from $1 to $10-$20. Here I am sitting on millions of dollars of various currency of monies while you are talking about something you have no idea about and putting words in my mouth. Get your shit straight. I'll listen to my own intuition and logic while I ignored your completely stupid one.

My post had nothing to do with you it was aimed at our beloved primer- as that was who you were talking about.

I generally regret paying any attention to primer...  Seems it is even so by proxy, lol.

[bbc.reporter]

Rpietila thanks for your thoughts. 

Basically...

This is funny. When the price goes up everyone starts wondering why and what is making it go up. If you are a real supporter of Monero the price does not matter. If you are a speculator of XMR the only thing that will matter is how high the price will go up and how much you will make in the trade. The people asking why and what is making it go up are maybe the ones who have not bought yet or is not sure if he did the right thing.

[dEBRUYNE]

Bitwala is now accepting Monero!

http://about.bitwa.la/bitwala-is-now-accepting-monero/

[magico]

rise will continue without longer pullback, only flashcrashes

I bet on this option ^^
80% IMO


Because of this:

According to Roger Ver, Bloomberg is writing an article on Monero today:

https://forum.bitcoin.com/monero/monero-price-speculation-thread-t10274.html#p29070

Could be another big day for Monero.

and this:

Bitwala is now accepting Monero!

http://about.bitwa.la/bitwala-is-now-accepting-monero/

[Furi Bliz]

This is funny. When the price goes up everyone starts wondering why and what is making it go up. If you are a real supporter of Monero the price does not matter. If you are a speculator of XMR the only thing that will matter is how high the price will go up and how much you will make in the trade. The people asking why and what is making it go up are maybe the ones who have not bought yet or is not sure if he did the right thing.


[/quote]

Well ofc price always matters Even if i've supported monero from the day i heard about(and will keep supporting as long as it's valid) it i'm still an investor seeking profits at the same time. Speculation and reasoning is a natural part of it just like this thread SPECULATION has +1000 pages on it.

[Drhiggins]

Monero is getting lots of press now.  In some ways this is the best kind of marketing as its organic and not manufactured crap.  In the music business we say any press is good press especially when it is free.

Came across this this morning.
http://www.livebitcoinnews.com/rise-of-monero-experts-weigh-in-on-merits-limits/

[aminorex]

Wow, so much pitty-pat.

Bitwa.la monero support! Yes!  Now anyone in Europe - at least - do they allow North American customers?  I will try to sign up - can buy sell spend or accept monero online and in shops.  That is truly huge, and previously a point of disadvantage, now removed.  Of course those and are tracked, but it is still a huge boost for privacy so long as you control the interfaces, and can connect directly to foreign addresses.  A month from now, that may be the dominant fiat exchange interface.

I still think the upward pressure is dominant until closer to the 1 September event.  Buy rumor, sell news.  It is a very powerful rule of thumb, and explains much of the naively paradoxical event response curves of open-market securities.  To ignore that rule of thumb, I require powerful reasons, which are lacking here.

Longer term, I expect more exchanges to support Monero, and both fiat and crypto will be flowing in to actually use the stuff, on a scale of weeks and months.   In as little as 3 years, in an optimistic but feasible case,  Monero has a chance to be the dominant cryptocurrency world-wide, in which case the price should exceed bitcoin significantly.  "Optimistic but feasible" means probability between 0.1 and 10%.  My SWAG estimate is 2%.  Bitcoin pioneered this path, and it is easier to follow now. 

[hoertest]

had my moneroj on mymonero since march , now i'm looking at cold storage, is moneroaddress.org still the way to go? is it much safer than mymonero?