[XMR] Monero Speculation

[owlcatz]

People suffering huge losses what's going on?

Ehmmm, No... You? Not sure what you are talking about TBH. Monero is Monero, just another day... Or did you forget your seat-belt today!

[bbc.reporter]

The way Monero is behaving in the exchanges is showing bad signs. It looks like it has decoupled from bitcoin and if bitcoin starts moving and Monero price stays the same or go down against fiat that would mean a trend down is forthcoming. I am getting scared.

[owlcatz]

The way Monero is behaving in the exchanges is showing bad signs. It looks like it has decoupled from bitcoin and if bitcoin starts moving and Monero price stays the same or go down against fiat that would mean a trend down is forthcoming. I am getting scared.

Why? This has happened over and over the past 3 years. Get used to it. Put on your seatbelt or panic sell and make me/us richer.

Edit - Sorry, but it's never been "coupled" with btc. it's moved the opposite more often than not. If you are in for the short term, you are bound to get #rekt, sorry.

[nanobrain]

The way Monero is behaving in the exchanges is showing bad signs. It looks like it has decoupled from bitcoin and if bitcoin starts moving and Monero price stays the same or go down against fiat that would mean a trend down is forthcoming. I am getting scared.

Why? This has happened over and over the past 3 years. Get used to it. Put on your seatbelt or panic sell and make me/us richer.

Edit - Sorry, but it's never been "coupled" with btc. it's moved the opposite more often than not. If you are in for the short term, you are bound to get #rekt, sorry.

I would disagree with you.  Over the last three years XMR has basically behaved like all the other alts and its value judged against BTC has moved appropriately as BTC's value has moved.  When XMR has changed its own inherent value ie its value against USD, this has provided a different value against BTC.

These sorts of relationships have become more tenuous since before the Christmas period and XMR seems to have become more reliant on sentiment (as pointed out by Kurious).

Over the last week we have seen XMR value being hammered from all sides (see my post a couple of pages back) and not even responding to improved sentiment. 

What scares me is that no-one here seems to see the beating and are trotting out 'cultist' stuff about having blind faith -- the BTC wall observer thread has been doing this for years now, I thought we were better than that.

[johnsmithx]

Deleted for using red....

LOL, smooth... funny

Or, wait: is that really a rule??

Self proclaimed rule of one single self-righteous keyboard warrior maybe, not that anyone gives one single damn, anyway

[Hueristic]

Deleted for using red....

LOL, smooth... funny

Or, wait: is that really a rule??

Self proclaimed rule of one single self-righteous keyboard warrior maybe, not that anyone gives one single damn, anyway

Self-moderated thread for discussion of Monero trading and price speculation.

Off topic posts will be removed. Off topic includes any extensive discussion of other coins, promoting other coins, or posting of promotional materials from other coins.

Non-substantive comments such as Monero sucks, Monero is a scam, Monero is great, Monero to the moon, etc. are considered off topic. Every post and reply should add to the discussion. The preceding sentence forbids repetitive exchanges on the same topic without some topical context.

Hostile trolling (which includes but is not limited to use of "meme" pictures to attack or demean) especially by sock puppet accounts is not allowed.

When quoting posts, please remove any large charts or other images unless the quoted post is at least one page old. Please shrink (or remove) large images in replies in all cases.

When I am speaking as the moderator, and only then, I will write in red. Other messages using red text are not permitted.

People speculating on Monero may also be interested in the MoneroMarkets subreddit (unaffiliated)

Don't like the rules then don't use the thread. It's customary to read the OP before posting in a thread isn't it?

[OrangeP]

The way Monero is behaving in the exchanges is showing bad signs. It looks like it has decoupled from bitcoin and if bitcoin starts moving and Monero price stays the same or go down against fiat that would mean a trend down is forthcoming. I am getting scared.

Why? This has happened over and over the past 3 years. Get used to it. Put on your seatbelt or panic sell and make me/us richer.

Edit - Sorry, but it's never been "coupled" with btc. it's moved the opposite more often than not. If you are in for the short term, you are bound to get #rekt, sorry.

I would disagree with you.  Over the last three years XMR has basically behaved like all the other alts and its value judged against BTC has moved appropriately as BTC's value has moved.  When XMR has changed its own inherent value ie its value against USD, this has provided a different value against BTC.

Feel
 - I'm also worried. Why are we worried: Because we can't explain the movement.
 - The only thing that stands out for Monero compared to other alts is that it has a very low adaption in China. This may explain the decoupled movement somehow.

Technical
 - BTC/XMR looks like a regular correction within an uptrend.

 - I tend to value XMR in USD, but I think only very few people do.

(I wouldn't give too much credit to technical analysis)



Fundamental
- Maybe some people know things we don't. Are there new and better competitors? Is there a flaw in Monero?

- Maybe it's just a lot of profit taking from daytraders and jumping onto new trends like Dash, which is more popular in China.

- Otherwise, all we can say is that the product Monero has improved during the last weeks. We now have a GUI and RingCT.

Verdict
So while I'm worried too, I can't find enough reasons to be pessimistic. I just traded BTC into XMR.

[ozkraut]

[
Fundamental
- Maybe some people know things we don't. Are there new and better competitors? Is there a flaw in Monero?

- Maybe it's just a lot of profit taking from daytraders and jumping onto new trends like Dash, which is more popular in China.

- Otherwise, all we can say is that the product Monero has improved during the last weeks. We now have a GUI and RingCT.

Verdict
So while I'm worried too, I can't find enough reasons to be pessimistic. I just traded BTC into XMR.



[/quote]


just the shakes of the monster coming to live. Plus accumulation by fear. Dont fret, dont panic and hodl. Good time to get some more. Lots of enemies = lots of honour (;-)

[kurious]

The way Monero is behaving in the exchanges is showing bad signs. It looks like it has decoupled from bitcoin and if bitcoin starts moving and Monero price stays the same or go down against fiat that would mean a trend down is forthcoming. I am getting scared.

Why? This has happened over and over the past 3 years. Get used to it. Put on your seatbelt or panic sell and make me/us richer.

Edit - Sorry, but it's never been "coupled" with btc. it's moved the opposite more often than not. If you are in for the short term, you are bound to get #rekt, sorry.

I would disagree with you.  Over the last three years XMR has basically behaved like all the other alts and its value judged against BTC has moved appropriately as BTC's value has moved.  When XMR has changed its own inherent value ie its value against USD, this has provided a different value against BTC.

These sorts of relationships have become more tenuous since before the Christmas period and XMR seems to have become more reliant on sentiment (as pointed out by Kurious).

Over the last week we have seen XMR value being hammered from all sides (see my post a couple of pages back) and not even responding to improved sentiment. 

What scares me is that no-one here seems to see the beating and are trotting out 'cultist' stuff about having blind faith -- the BTC wall observer thread has been doing this for years now, I thought we were better than that.

Unsurprisingly I agree with this (thanks Nano).   It is indeed the case that traditionally we have gone down when BTC went up and vice versa.  However, we were coupled - almost nailed - to the BTC price in the last BTC spike., which meant (as we stuck around the 0.015 mark while BTC rose up) we hit a USD ATH for XMR. 

This was remarkable, it may have been the GUI release and yes, sentiment about XMR - but we were actually lifting in value along with BTC. Traditionally we should have gone down. Hard. 

Unfortunately, we stayed pegged on the way down, too and lost a similar amount of value to BTC in fiat terms, instead of spiking up as alts have often done as BTC drops sharply.   We went up to the $17 USD mark and have come back down now to under $12 - which is a pretty large drop.

Now we seem to be less fixed and rises in BTC have seen us go under 0.014, which we didn't drop under through the huge hike in BTC. 

During the hike, we were gaining so much value, we went over a $200 m market cap - which took into the top 3 or 4 temporarily.  We looked like we were as good an investment as BTC.

So we had a rise almost exactly mirroring BTC, but came down with it, too.

In the past few days, the 'coupling' seems to have gone back to more 'normal' patterns.  It's as yet unclear if BTC spikes again if we will follow, or drop.   While the price has 'looked stable' - peak to trough has been a large value loss in fiat terms.  Nano is right to say it's been a beating - but it might well have happened even if BTC had stayed flat because of the GUI, Ring CT and new exchanges being added anyway.  It might also have settled back down.

All is not doom and gloom though - XMR should plot its own course and I am sure it will.   With all that is happening in BTC the waters are very choppy so dips and rises will happen, but the XMR price is still way above $10 and only two other coins on Polo (both of which are nowhere near the quality of XMR, or IMHO, its value) are currently higher in USD terms. 

I think we're fine and I have been buying the dips happily.  Patience is a virtue and the crypto market is not ours to shape (yet), but we're in good shape all the same.

[kurious]

Feel
 - I'm also worried. Why are we worried: Because we can't explain the movement.
 - The only thing that stands out for Monero compared to other alts is that it has a very low adaption in China. This may explain the decoupled movement somehow.

Very few alts have 'large' adoption in China - they seem to like LTC - but in USD terms XMR's market cap is close to LTC and it's price is higher

Fundamental
- Maybe some people know things we don't. Are there new and better competitors? Is there a flaw in Monero?

- Maybe it's just a lot of profit taking from daytraders and jumping onto new trends like Dash, which is more popular in China.

- Otherwise, all we can say is that the product Monero has improved during the last weeks. We now have a GUI and RingCT.

Verdict
So while I'm worried too, I can't find enough reasons to be pessimistic. I just traded BTC into XMR.

I don't think worrying 'they know something we don't' is rational - this is crypto.  Monero's rise has been incredible and at one point we had grown well over 2000% in one year.  We spent a long time around 0.001 - now we are comfortably way above this.   We cannot always go up, but the trend is totally positive.

As for Dash - seriously?  As we were added to Bitfinex, it was dropped. Given it's an HK registered exchange, don't you think they would have kept it on if there was any serious Chinese adoption?

China will come, because privacy matters - for them and in India and..... 

XMR is damn good tech and is being added to new exchanges, gaining new features and becoming hugely respected.  It's a top 5 coin and looking at the competition for places at the top I have to say I am not at all worried about its value as an investment.

[MataKhobRazi]

I'm absolutely not an expert in trading stuff, but I feel that the rise in value that occurred from 0.01 to 0.015 occurred almost exclusively in connection with the ads in the two big exchanges who have accepted monero (bitfinex and kraken). Now that there is no more news than that, it stagnates and the weak hands who only came in the belief it would mooner, are doubting. Maybe the whales are trying to identify these weak hands.

That's the noob of the day analysis

Thanks for having translated what I wrote in the french section. LOL

cf. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583145.msg17501153#msg17501153

[Febo]

Fundamental
- Maybe some people know things we don't. Are there new and better competitors? Is there a flaw in Monero?

- Maybe it's just a lot of profit taking from daytraders and jumping onto new trends like Dash, which is more popular in China.

- Otherwise, all we can say is that the product Monero has improved during the last weeks. We now have a GUI and RingCT.

Verdict
So while I'm worried too, I can't find enough reasons to be pessimistic. I just traded BTC into XMR.

What happened yesterday was that there was lots of FUD on this forum and on Poloniex troll-box and Twitter about people cant reach their Monero in their MyMonero valet. Questioning if anyone actuality was able to get them thru GUI. That is why Monero lost almost 10% compared to Bitcoin. It was an opportunity that day traders grabbed to get some profit.  I think MyMonero is still off, so there will be lots more chance for them to FUD more.

[kurious]

Fundamental
- Maybe some people know things we don't. Are there new and better competitors? Is there a flaw in Monero?

- Maybe it's just a lot of profit taking from daytraders and jumping onto new trends like Dash, which is more popular in China.

- Otherwise, all we can say is that the product Monero has improved during the last weeks. We now have a GUI and RingCT.

Verdict
So while I'm worried too, I can't find enough reasons to be pessimistic. I just traded BTC into XMR.

What happened yesterday was that there was lots of FUD on this forum and on Poloniex troll-box and Twitter about people cant reach their Monero in their MyMonero valet. Questioning if anyone actuality was able to get them thru GUI. That is why Monero lost almost 10% compared to Bitcoin. It was an opportunity that day traders grabbed to get some profit.  I think MyMonero is still off, so there will be lots more chance for them to FUD more.

Didn't know about that - any news as to why it's down?

EDIT: Site says it's just an HF update. No reason to panic.

[DaveyJones]

Fundamental
- Maybe some people know things we don't. Are there new and better competitors? Is there a flaw in Monero?

- Maybe it's just a lot of profit taking from daytraders and jumping onto new trends like Dash, which is more popular in China.

- Otherwise, all we can say is that the product Monero has improved during the last weeks. We now have a GUI and RingCT.

Verdict
So while I'm worried too, I can't find enough reasons to be pessimistic. I just traded BTC into XMR.

What happened yesterday was that there was lots of FUD on this forum and on Poloniex troll-box and Twitter about people cant reach their Monero in their MyMonero valet. Questioning if anyone actuality was able to get them thru GUI. That is why Monero lost almost 10% compared to Bitcoin. It was an opportunity that day traders grabbed to get some profit.  I think MyMonero is still off, so there will be lots more chance for them to FUD more.

That wasn't the reason.. MyMonero was already down a whole day before that... it just some entities dumping because they think it is the right time to do so... not the FUD

[bitcoinvest]

I'm absolutely not an expert in trading stuff, but I feel that the rise in value that occurred from 0.01 to 0.015 occurred almost exclusively in connection with the ads in the two big exchanges who have accepted monero (bitfinex and kraken). Now that there is no more news than that, it stagnates and the weak hands who only came in the belief it would mooner, are doubting. Maybe the whales are trying to identify these weak hands.

That's the noob of the day analysis

well i don't think that. this comes after GUI update also and if you look the alts what you would buy if you have some BTC to invest on them? to me it's clear i would buy Monero as 1st choice. and of course i would stay away from ETH as i don't like this kind of experiements, i think you remember this DAO hack etc...
BUT nothing ever happened with XMR or BTC (don't say my about exchanges hacked because this is another story...)

XMR has big potentials and in my opinion now that is not expensive BTC holders need have 2-3 times the amount they have in BTC in XMR...

you have 50BTC then keep 150 XMR (of course the more the better )

[Febo]

Fundamental
- Maybe some people know things we don't. Are there new and better competitors? Is there a flaw in Monero?

- Maybe it's just a lot of profit taking from daytraders and jumping onto new trends like Dash, which is more popular in China.

- Otherwise, all we can say is that the product Monero has improved during the last weeks. We now have a GUI and RingCT.

Verdict
So while I'm worried too, I can't find enough reasons to be pessimistic. I just traded BTC into XMR.

What happened yesterday was that there was lots of FUD on this forum and on Poloniex troll-box and Twitter about people cant reach their Monero in their MyMonero valet. Questioning if anyone actuality was able to get them thru GUI. That is why Monero lost almost 10% compared to Bitcoin. It was an opportunity that day traders grabbed to get some profit.  I think MyMonero is still off, so there will be lots more chance for them to FUD more.

That wasn't the reason.. MyMonero was already down a whole day before that... it just some entities dumping because they think it is the right time to do so... not the FUD

Yes and now is down for 3 days. So way easier to spread FUD today then yesterday.

I am sure this is not only factor, but it added a lot to what happened yesterday. Some bought Moneros with hope that price will go skyhigh at RingCT fork and are now selling.  

[kurious]

MyMonero appears to be back up.

Let's see if the price follows....

[TrueCryptonaire]

I'm absolutely not an expert in trading stuff, but I feel that the rise in value that occurred from 0.01 to 0.015 occurred almost exclusively in connection with the ads in the two big exchanges who have accepted monero (bitfinex and kraken). Now that there is no more news than that, it stagnates and the weak hands who only came in the belief it would mooner, are doubting. Maybe the whales are trying to identify these weak hands.

That's the noob of the day analysis

well i don't think that. this comes after GUI update also and if you look the alts what you would buy if you have some BTC to invest on them? to me it's clear i would buy Monero as 1st choice. and of course i would stay away from ETH as i don't like this kind of experiements, i think you remember this DAO hack etc...
BUT nothing ever happened with XMR or BTC (don't say my about exchanges hacked because this is another story...)

XMR has big potentials and in my opinion now that is not expensive BTC holders need have 2-3 times the amount they have in BTC in XMR...

you have 50BTC then keep 150 XMR (of course the more the better )

If everybody in the bitcoin community would buy 2-3 times the amount of XMR they have in BTC as you suggested there would not be enough coins to feed the hungry bitcoiners. Therefore it is better not to encourage people to buy 2-3 XMR for every bitcoin....

[Shiroslullaby]

MyMonero appears to be back up.

Let's see if the price follows....

Yeah just logged in and checked my balance. The 2 XMR i had on that address are still there.
Maybe everyone will stop crying about the "exit scam" now.
Watching the price today as the US wakes up. Lets see if there is any positive movement.

[OrangeP]

Coinmarketcap data showed extensive trading of Dash  vs dollar and yuan on exchanges with Chinese customers. This is why I think that maybe some scared people are trying to hide their stuff in dash. Monero volume in China has been at place 13 last time I checked. It needs more advertisement over there.