[XMR] Monero Speculation

[nioc]

Monero v0.10.1 - Wolfram Warptangent - released! | Mandatory upgrade!

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/5i5wvd/monero_v0101_wolfram_warptangent_released/

https://github.com/monero-project/monero/releases/tag/v0.10.1

This is a mandatory upgrade that is required for the hard fork that is scheduled for January 05, 2017 and also for the GUI. Thanks.

Bimp 

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[smoothie]

Any news on when the Q1 GUI project is going to be completed. Eagerly waiting for it.... Hoping it by January or early..

I was very wrong at all kind of Crypto speculations. But I give tiny chances that GUI will be out after 5th January.

the gui is likely already priced in
xmr is a nice project ,my only worry is so many other coins are coming to the party
with privacy features ......
hopefully the XMr network effect will be too strong.......

Really, any already announced features have already been priced in by the market...

In my opinion it is not even possible to price in GUI. You see, there are people who are refusing to buy Moneros before they can store them in a safe and sound manner. Therefore, once the wallet is out, they can buy into Monero.
That being said, this can create a speculative bubble and drive the price of Monero literally nuts like we have never seen before.

The GUI will be no more secure than running the wallet from command line. Strong passphrase is essential but Monero could really use adoption by Trezor or Ledger. Ledger is more likely as they have more manpower than Trezor and btchip has already mentioned he is interested. Monero app is not on Ledger's public roadmap yet though. GUI is nice yes but using command line is not really a bother. Paper wallets have a point of failure when you have to import private keys to spend.

Am I wrong in this assumption below?...

Couldn't you just import it to an offline computer, sign a transaction and then export the raw transaction and have that broadcast to the network?

That is how it is done in bitcoin (one such way).

[kurious]

The market seems to think a step closer to the GUI is positive....

The GUI will bolster XMR up significantly.  That is see that is stronger which WILL support the price.   Up is more likely, down is less likely.

The lack of it has held XMR up.

Priced in? To a certain extent, yes - but the lack of a GUI has had a negative effect, too.

Only the hype about the GUI may be priced in.

What cannot be priced in is actual demand increase/supply decrease due to more people hodling more Monero safe and snug in their own Fluffyboxen.

Some of those people may be DNM users and some may be investors.  The point is all the various CLI averse folk (aka drooling masses) will have an easy point and click method to take coins off the exchange(s) and conveniently use them for whatever they want.  That creates the feedback conditions needed for a price spiral, as increased network effects intensify XMR's status as a Giffen good.

There is also the class of potential XMR investors who have eschewed (or limited their) exposure until the core devs prove they can ship their GUI.

Apparently "fat protocol" investments are quite au courant, so that class may be much larger than we imagine.

http://qz.com/861721/bitcoin-prices-are-at-a-2016-high-despite-silicon-valley-having-soured-on-the-currency/

Fat protocols

Bitcoin is an instrument of financial speculation; what value the traders see in it remains open to interpretation. But there are some clues.

A new theory is emerging in Silicon Valley, led by prestigious investors like Union Square Ventures, about bitcoin’s worth. It’s what Union Square Ventures’ Joel Monegro calls the “fat protocol”—and it’s driven by the failure of heavily funded bitcoin companies to produce the kinds of spectacular results Silicon Valley expects, even as the value of bitcoin itself continues to climb.

Venture capital has usually been rewarded for investing in the application layer of the technology stack. Facebook and Google, for instance, are basically mega-popular applications built on top of the hypertext transfer protocol, the foundation of the web. But cryptocurrencies buck the trend. The underlying protocol keeps growing in value but the companies building applications never get anywhere close to that. All the bitcoin in circulation is worth $12.5 billion (and ethereum is worth over $700 million), for instance, but the biggest bitcoin companies are only valued at several hundred million, Monegro estimates.

The rule of thumb when it comes to fat protocol investing is this: “The market cap of the protocol always grows faster than the combined value of the applications built on top,” as Monegro puts it.

The reason: Successful cryptocurrency applications drive up demand for the currency, or more specifically, the tokens that are coded into the currency’s protocol. For instance, when Dread Pirate Roberts dreamed up Silk Road, people embraced the idea of e-commerce for drugs, driving up demand for bitcoin to pay for them. An example that doesn’t involve contraband might be the Bitfinex exchange coming up with a peer-to-peer margin-trading mechanism, which presumably prompted more people to buy bitcoins to trade.

Polychain Capital

The fat protocol rule, and the underlying feedback loop animating it, might explain bitcoin’s current price rise. Union Square Ventures and fellow bitcoin bull Andreessen Horowitz are shifting their bets accordingly. They’re now increasing their exposure to bitcoin itself, if not by buying coins directly, then by taking stakes in companies that do.

One such company is Polychain Capital, a new cryptocurency hedge fund. Andreessen Horowitz and Union Square Ventures have pumped $10 million into the firm, and into the fund itself. Polychain founder Olaf Carlson-Wee won’t say much about how his fund invests, except that it’s long-only and the goal is to get into blockchain assets at an early stage.

IMO Bitcoin and Monero are the best, fattest protocol tokens easily obtainable by anyone with access to Bitfinex or Shapeshift.   

I wholeheartedly agree that the GUI will encourage more (ok, possibly minor) buyers into XMR.  It's obviously a good investment - but 'no wallet'?  Duh!

People saying 'CLI is easy' are myopic veterans, insiders; the masses want 'point and click' and in this day an age, if it ain't easy - it's enough to steer users away.  After all, there are plenty of other coins. All with wallets.

A GUI will make us more accessible to a wider user base - anyone with a problem with seeing that is at best misguided, at worst: foolish.

[ArticMine]

The market seems to think a step closer to the GUI is positive....

The GUI will bolster XMR up significantly.  That is see that is stronger which WILL support the price.   Up is more likely, down is less likely.

The lack of it has held XMR up.

Priced in? To a certain extent, yes - but the lack of a GUI has had a negative effect, too.

Only the hype about the GUI may be priced in.

What cannot be priced in is actual demand increase/supply decrease due to more people hodling more Monero safe and snug in their own Fluffyboxen.

Some of those people may be DNM users and some may be investors.  The point is all the various CLI averse folk (aka drooling masses) will have an easy point and click method to take coins off the exchange(s) and conveniently use them for whatever they want.  That creates the feedback conditions needed for a price spiral, as increased network effects intensify XMR's status as a Giffen good.

There is also the class of potential XMR investors who have eschewed (or limited their) exposure until the core devs prove they can ship their GUI.

Apparently "fat protocol" investments are quite au courant, so that class may be much larger than we imagine.

http://qz.com/861721/bitcoin-prices-are-at-a-2016-high-despite-silicon-valley-having-soured-on-the-currency/

Fat protocols

Bitcoin is an instrument of financial speculation; what value the traders see in it remains open to interpretation. But there are some clues.

A new theory is emerging in Silicon Valley, led by prestigious investors like Union Square Ventures, about bitcoin’s worth. It’s what Union Square Ventures’ Joel Monegro calls the “fat protocol”—and it’s driven by the failure of heavily funded bitcoin companies to produce the kinds of spectacular results Silicon Valley expects, even as the value of bitcoin itself continues to climb.

Venture capital has usually been rewarded for investing in the application layer of the technology stack. Facebook and Google, for instance, are basically mega-popular applications built on top of the hypertext transfer protocol, the foundation of the web. But cryptocurrencies buck the trend. The underlying protocol keeps growing in value but the companies building applications never get anywhere close to that. All the bitcoin in circulation is worth $12.5 billion (and ethereum is worth over $700 million), for instance, but the biggest bitcoin companies are only valued at several hundred million, Monegro estimates.

The rule of thumb when it comes to fat protocol investing is this: “The market cap of the protocol always grows faster than the combined value of the applications built on top,” as Monegro puts it.

The reason: Successful cryptocurrency applications drive up demand for the currency, or more specifically, the tokens that are coded into the currency’s protocol. For instance, when Dread Pirate Roberts dreamed up Silk Road, people embraced the idea of e-commerce for drugs, driving up demand for bitcoin to pay for them. An example that doesn’t involve contraband might be the Bitfinex exchange coming up with a peer-to-peer margin-trading mechanism, which presumably prompted more people to buy bitcoins to trade.

Polychain Capital

The fat protocol rule, and the underlying feedback loop animating it, might explain bitcoin’s current price rise. Union Square Ventures and fellow bitcoin bull Andreessen Horowitz are shifting their bets accordingly. They’re now increasing their exposure to bitcoin itself, if not by buying coins directly, then by taking stakes in companies that do.

One such company is Polychain Capital, a new cryptocurency hedge fund. Andreessen Horowitz and Union Square Ventures have pumped $10 million into the firm, and into the fund itself. Polychain founder Olaf Carlson-Wee won’t say much about how his fund invests, except that it’s long-only and the goal is to get into blockchain assets at an early stage.

IMO Bitcoin and Monero are the best, fattest protocol tokens easily obtainable by anyone with access to Bitfinex or Shapeshift.  

I do agree the fat protocol model is applicable at the early stages of the protocol's development and adoption as is the case at this stage with Monero. I am not so sure it is applicable to a more mature coin such as Bitcoin. It's application to Bitcoin may be more an indication of the anticipation of Bitcoin protocol moving away from transactions on the blockchain to transactions on secondary layers such as the Lightning Network. This is fueled to a large degree by the fixed blocksize limit in the Bitcoin protocol. The following quote from the legal agreement of Circle may be indicative of this shift. https://www.circle.com/en/legal/intl-user-agreement

You can use your Circle account to buy bitcoin for sale on other registered platforms and exchanges or to sell bitcoin acquired from other registered platforms and exchanges. You cannot use your Circle account to (i) buy bitcoin for sale to individuals through peer-to-peer brokerage services or unregistered exchanges (such as LocalBitcoins, Craigslist, eBay or similar websites), (ii) sell bitcoin that you have acquired directly from individuals through peer-to-peer brokerage services or unregistered exchanges (such as LocalBitcoins, Craigslist, eBay or similar websites), or (iii) buy or sell bitcoin on behalf of anyone else. Such activities might be in violation of applicable law - so we can’t allow it.

The difference between the dream and the reality in Bitcoin is becoming more apparent each day.

[ozkraut]

[/quote]

I wholeheartedly agree that the GUI will encourage more (ok, possibly minor) buyers into XMR.  It's obviously a good investment - but 'no wallet'?  Duh!

People saying 'CLI is easy' are myopic veterans, insiders; the masses want 'point and click' and in this day an age, if it ain't easy - it's enough to steer users away.  After all, there are plenty of other coins. All with wallets.

A GUI will make us more accessible to a wider user base - anyone with a problem with seeing that is at best misguided, at worst: foolish.
[/quote]

As much as I am just fine with the CLI I fully agree. We need an appliance like simplicity for interaction with the network to allow all comers to feel comfortable. Intuitive and simple. Which means a GUI. Actually it really means a Windows GUI. Anybody using more elusive OS's is likely technical enough to not worry about CLI. And maybe its mobile wallets eg android/ios which are needed most, certainly after Windows. The kids these days live on their phones/apps.

[KeyJockey]

Actually it really means a Windows GUI....

And Mac too: clearly Apple people are far and away more needful of a simple, clean, point & click interface.

Anyone using a Mac who's able to deal with Terminal is clearly on OS X *because* it's UNIX at heart, but this is NOT most Apple people.

[volyova]

Hi, guys! I'm back!!

[kurious]

Actually it really means a Windows GUI....

And Mac too: clearly Apple people are far and away more needful of a simple, clean, point & click interface.

Anyone using a Mac who's able to deal with Terminal is clearly on OS X *because* it's UNIX at heart, but this is NOT most Apple people.

Yep!  I am on Mac and found the CLI totally foreign to my natural usage of a computer.

But for patient help and advice here I'd never have managed to work out how to cold store my XMR.   I can't see OSX being left out, though - the GUI for Monero looks to be aiming to be all things to all men.  And women, ofc

[kurious]

Hi, guys! I'm back!!

You're welcome. 

So... have you grabbed any XMR yet?  You could have grabbed them under 0.01 a few days ago....

[volyova]

Hi, guys! I'm back!!

You're welcome.  

So... have you grabbed any XMR yet?  You could have grabbed them under 0.01 a few days ago....

Hello, friend. I didn't take the plunge yet! I'm afraid I am one of those people who tend to agonise/mull over such decisions for...a while. I don't add new coins to my portfolio without a lot of research beforehand, because I am not a daytrader looking to make a quick buck, but am adopting a long-term holding strategy. In fact it's a real rarity for me to take on a new coin, the last one was VTC a few years ago!

kurious,  tbh this worries me.

Poloniex   XMR/BTC   0.01077300 BTC   2528.177 BTC   Volume %  97%

Bittrex   XMR/BTC   0.01084208 BTC   43.648 BTC           Volume %  1%

Hitbtc   XMR/BTC   0.01075900 BTC   18.547 BTC           Volume %  0%

Bter           XMR/CNY   53.0000 CNY   1.502   BTC           Volume %  0%

Bter           XMR/BTC   0.00968829 BTC   0.051   BTC           Volume %  0%  

Can you see what is wrong with this picture? (Ok, table).

[volyova]

11   Dashcoin   £7,608,383   £0.452727   16,805,687 DSH   £5,611   13219.00%

OMG, are you guys pumping DashCoin?? You sneaky fucks... and what a totally brilliant idea! This is trolling on a whole new level haha...artful. It should certainly confuse any newcomers to crypto! LOL you are all evil.

[zoose]

Hi, guys! I'm back!!

You're welcome.  

So... have you grabbed any XMR yet?  You could have grabbed them under 0.01 a few days ago....

Hello, friend. I didn't take the plunge yet! I'm afraid I am one of those people who tend to agonise/mull over such decisions for...a while. I don't add new coins to my portfolio without a lot of research beforehand, because I am not a daytrader looking to make a quick buck, but am adopting a long-term holding strategy. In fact it's a real rarity for me to take on a new coin, the last one was VTC a few years ago!

kurious,  tbh this worries me.

Poloniex   XMR/BTC   0.01077300 BTC   2528.177 BTC   Volume %  97%

Bittrex   XMR/BTC   0.01084208 BTC   43.648 BTC           Volume %  1%

Hitbtc   XMR/BTC   0.01075900 BTC   18.547 BTC           Volume %  0%

Bter           XMR/CNY   53.0000 CNY   1.502   BTC           Volume %  0%

Bter           XMR/BTC   0.00968829 BTC   0.051   BTC           Volume %  0%  

Can you see what is wrong with this picture? (Ok, table).

I'll take a stab at it and sat that 97% is traded on POLO.

[kurious]

Hi, guys! I'm back!!

You're welcome.  

So... have you grabbed any XMR yet?  You could have grabbed them under 0.01 a few days ago....

Hello, friend. I didn't take the plunge yet! I'm afraid I am one of those people who tend to agonise/mull over such decisions for...a while. I don't add new coins to my portfolio without a lot of research beforehand, because I am not a daytrader looking to make a quick buck, but am adopting a long-term holding strategy. In fact it's a real rarity for me to take on a new coin, the last one was VTC a few years ago!

kurious,  tbh this worries me.

Poloniex   XMR/BTC   0.01077300 BTC   2528.177 BTC   Volume %  97%

Bittrex   XMR/BTC   0.01084208 BTC   43.648 BTC           Volume %  1%

Hitbtc   XMR/BTC   0.01075900 BTC   18.547 BTC           Volume %  0%

Bter           XMR/CNY   53.0000 CNY   1.502   BTC           Volume %  0%

Bter           XMR/BTC   0.00968829 BTC   0.051   BTC           Volume %  0%  

Can you see what is wrong with this picture? (Ok, table).

I'll take a stab at it and sat that 97% is traded on POLO.

The missing % is probably what's traded at Bitfinex - which is also miniscule to what is traded on Polo - but they are not offering margin yet, which is what Finex traders were known for....

Polo is where the volume is, Finex will be (hopefully) the fiat on-ramp.  But as a relatively mature currency, the volume is staying where it habitually has been.

[volyova]

Hi, guys! I'm back!!

You're welcome.  

So... have you grabbed any XMR yet?  You could have grabbed them under 0.01 a few days ago....

Hello, friend. I didn't take the plunge yet! I'm afraid I am one of those people who tend to agonise/mull over such decisions for...a while. I don't add new coins to my portfolio without a lot of research beforehand, because I am not a daytrader looking to make a quick buck, but am adopting a long-term holding strategy. In fact it's a real rarity for me to take on a new coin, the last one was VTC a few years ago!

kurious,  tbh this worries me.

Poloniex   XMR/BTC   0.01077300 BTC   2528.177 BTC   Volume %  97%

Bittrex   XMR/BTC   0.01084208 BTC   43.648 BTC           Volume %  1%

Hitbtc   XMR/BTC   0.01075900 BTC   18.547 BTC           Volume %  0%

Bter           XMR/CNY   53.0000 CNY   1.502   BTC           Volume %  0%

Bter           XMR/BTC   0.00968829 BTC   0.051   BTC           Volume %  0%  

Can you see what is wrong with this picture? (Ok, table).

I'll take a stab at it and sat that 97% is traded on POLO.

The missing % is probably what's traded at Bitfinex - which is also miniscule to what is traded on Polo - but they are not offering margin yet, which is what Finex traders were known for....

Polo is where the volume is, Finex will be (hopefully) the fiat on-ramp.  But as a relatively mature currency, the volume is staying where it habitually has been.

The missing % isn't what worries me. Don't you think it's bad that 97% of all XMR volume is coming from one exchange. Really, it looks like XMR is the Poloniex "house-coin", and as we all know, exchanges don't last, they always go down in the end. It makes me feel like it's not very safe to hold XMR long-term. How bad/or good would it be for Monero, do you think, if Polo went bye-bye, or would nothing much change? Serious question, no trolling.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Looks like someone has set his straightedge at the price of 0.0107... It is like a straight line...

[cryptimus prime]

On another note: Look what I've found today....


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg17136184#msg17136184


lets speculate on that one....

Should we know him?

[iCEBREAKER]

http://qz.com/861721/bitcoin-prices-are-at-a-2016-high-despite-silicon-valley-having-soured-on-the-currency/

Fat protocols

The rule of thumb when it comes to fat protocol investing is this: “The market cap of the protocol always grows faster than the combined value of the applications built on top,”

I do agree the fat protocol model is applicable at the early stages of the protocol's development and adoption as is the case at this stage with Monero. I am not so sure it is applicable to a more mature coin such as Bitcoin. It's application to Bitcoin may be more an indication of the anticipation of Bitcoin protocol moving away from transactions on the blockchain to transactions on secondary layers such as the Lightning Network. This is fueled to a large degree by the fixed blocksize limit in the Bitcoin protocol. The following quote from the legal agreement of Circle may be indicative of this shift. https://www.circle.com/en/legal/intl-user-agreement

You can use your Circle account to buy bitcoin for sale on other registered platforms and exchanges or to sell bitcoin acquired from other registered platforms and exchanges. You cannot use your Circle account to (i) buy bitcoin for sale to individuals through peer-to-peer brokerage services or unregistered exchanges (such as LocalBitcoins, Craigslist, eBay or similar websites), (ii) sell bitcoin that you have acquired directly from individuals through peer-to-peer brokerage services or unregistered exchanges (such as LocalBitcoins, Craigslist, eBay or similar websites), or (iii) buy or sell bitcoin on behalf of anyone else. Such activities might be in violation of applicable law - so we can’t allow it.

The difference between the dream and the reality in Bitcoin is becoming more apparent each day.

If your "dream" was recording for eternity in the Holy Mother of All Blockchains every Frappuchino, Dorito, and bus ticket purchase, sorry for your loss.

LOL Circle.  They rage quit just like Mike Hearn, who is/was one of their board advisers.

I guess Hearn advised Circle to maximize 1MB vs XT butthurt, get triggered, blame GMAX, and crawl off into a safe space to die bitter and alone.   

How much code has Circle contributed?  Oh that's right, none at all.  Circle may moan all they like about what their hapless customers are not allowed to do, but talking about Bitcoin (which is permissionless) did not make them part of it.

Why aren't you "sure" Bitcoin is a fat protocol?  It's very clear from the definition that it qualifies (Bitcoin market cap > sum of apps built on top), albeit not as much as Monero since we only have minimal apps built on top.

Do you have a better explanation that accounts for the observable fact heavily funded bitcoin companies failed to produce the kinds of spectacular results Silicon Valley expects, even as the value of bitcoin itself continues to climb?  Speculating about motivations and fretting about EVIL BLOCKSTREAMCORE doesn't count; your personal status as disgruntled isn't an argument that leads to a falsifiable (ie useful) hypothesis.

You may believe building out layers >1 will hollow out Bitcoin's value and leave it a gutted shell, but most of us call that process "scaling" and think it will add tremendously to the protocol's usefulness.  That's why the price is in a secular bull market and shows no signs of turning bearish.

BTW payment channels such as Lightning are not "secondary layers."  Sidechains are secondary layers; LN style write caches are more accurately conceived of as Layer 1.5.  Regardless of nomenclature and semantics, additional higher layers become part of (ie are not distinct from nor compete with) the Bitcoin protocol, which gets fatter as its utility expands.  IOW, the Bitcoin protocol (Layer 1 + extensions) is Bitcoin's killer app.

If you could stop fixating on BTC's fixed blocksize limit and dragging it into every topic just so you can get in a bit of axe-grinding, that would be great.  You're starting to remind me of Daniel Hopsicker, who does outstanding investigative reporting yet insists on tying everything back the JFK assassination.   

[kurious]

Hi, guys! I'm back!!

You're welcome.  

So... have you grabbed any XMR yet?  You could have grabbed them under 0.01 a few days ago....

Hello, friend. I didn't take the plunge yet! I'm afraid I am one of those people who tend to agonise/mull over such decisions for...a while. I don't add new coins to my portfolio without a lot of research beforehand, because I am not a daytrader looking to make a quick buck, but am adopting a long-term holding strategy. In fact it's a real rarity for me to take on a new coin, the last one was VTC a few years ago!

kurious,  tbh this worries me.

Poloniex   XMR/BTC   0.01077300 BTC   2528.177 BTC   Volume %  97%

Bittrex   XMR/BTC   0.01084208 BTC   43.648 BTC           Volume %  1%

Hitbtc   XMR/BTC   0.01075900 BTC   18.547 BTC           Volume %  0%

Bter           XMR/CNY   53.0000 CNY   1.502   BTC           Volume %  0%

Bter           XMR/BTC   0.00968829 BTC   0.051   BTC           Volume %  0%  

Can you see what is wrong with this picture? (Ok, table).

I'll take a stab at it and sat that 97% is traded on POLO.

The missing % is probably what's traded at Bitfinex - which is also miniscule to what is traded on Polo - but they are not offering margin yet, which is what Finex traders were known for....

Polo is where the volume is, Finex will be (hopefully) the fiat on-ramp.  But as a relatively mature currency, the volume is staying where it habitually has been.

The missing % isn't what worries me. Don't you think it's bad that 97% of all XMR volume is coming from one exchange. Really, it looks like XMR is the Poloniex "house-coin", and as we all know, exchanges don't last, they always go down in the end. It makes me feel like it's not very safe to hold XMR long-term. How bad/or good would it be for Monero, do you think, if Polo went bye-bye, or would nothing much change? Serious question, no trolling.

The trade would inevitably go elsewhere.  A coin doesn't die when its main exchange disappears.

It would reflect on the alts market, including BTC and all alts - as all would have been affected.   Scandalous, bad for the alts market, bad for XMR - yes initially, but people would still want to buy and sell.

The main risk is that Polo is being used by many people with XMR as a wallet, since there is not GUI.  So more Monero would be 'lost' and therefore the XMR market would be hit. 

If it was a hack - there would be a fear of any stolen coins being dumped - which would depress price. If it was a crash that locked up or lost coins - it would reduce supply and so (in theory) actually increase the price of the remaining available coins.

Whatever happened the market for XMR would still exist - but move to a new location, or new locations.

[volyova]

Hi, guys! I'm back!!

You're welcome.  

So... have you grabbed any XMR yet?  You could have grabbed them under 0.01 a few days ago....

Hello, friend. I didn't take the plunge yet! I'm afraid I am one of those people who tend to agonise/mull over such decisions for...a while. I don't add new coins to my portfolio without a lot of research beforehand, because I am not a daytrader looking to make a quick buck, but am adopting a long-term holding strategy. In fact it's a real rarity for me to take on a new coin, the last one was VTC a few years ago!

kurious,  tbh this worries me.

Poloniex   XMR/BTC   0.01077300 BTC   2528.177 BTC   Volume %  97%

Bittrex   XMR/BTC   0.01084208 BTC   43.648 BTC           Volume %  1%

Hitbtc   XMR/BTC   0.01075900 BTC   18.547 BTC           Volume %  0%

Bter           XMR/CNY   53.0000 CNY   1.502   BTC           Volume %  0%

Bter           XMR/BTC   0.00968829 BTC   0.051   BTC           Volume %  0%  

Can you see what is wrong with this picture? (Ok, table).

I'll take a stab at it and sat that 97% is traded on POLO.

The missing % is probably what's traded at Bitfinex - which is also miniscule to what is traded on Polo - but they are not offering margin yet, which is what Finex traders were known for....

Polo is where the volume is, Finex will be (hopefully) the fiat on-ramp.  But as a relatively mature currency, the volume is staying where it habitually has been.

The missing % isn't what worries me. Don't you think it's bad that 97% of all XMR volume is coming from one exchange. Really, it looks like XMR is the Poloniex "house-coin", and as we all know, exchanges don't last, they always go down in the end. It makes me feel like it's not very safe to hold XMR long-term. How bad/or good would it be for Monero, do you think, if Polo went bye-bye, or would nothing much change? Serious question, no trolling.

The trade would inevitably go elsewhere.  A coin doesn't die when its main exchange disappears.

It would reflect on the alts market, including BTC and all alts - as all would have been affected.   Scandalous, bad for the alts market, bad for XMR - yes initially, but people would still want to buy and sell.

The main risk is that Polo is being used by many people with XMR as a wallet, since there is not GUI.  So more Monero would be 'lost' and therefore the XMR market would be hit. 

If it was a hack - there would be a fear of any stolen coins being dumped - which would depress price. If it was a crash that locked up or lost coins - it would reduce supply and so (in theory) actually increase the price of the remaining available coins.

Whatever happened the market for XMR would still exist - but move to a new location, or new locations.

Thank-you, very rational. Anyway, hopefully being added to Bitfinex might negate this "single point-of-failure" (potential) problem? What do you think? And do you know when are they adding it? Thanks, V.

[kurious]

Thank-you, very rational. Anyway, hopefully being added to Bitfinex might negate this "single point-of-failure" (potential) problem? What do you think? And do you know when are they adding it? Thanks, V.

They already added it, not great volume so far, but they aren't doing margin trading yet.

Early days - but yes, in the event of Polo struggling Bitfinex could cope....