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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3308080 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (2 posts by 1+ user deleted.)
kurious
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December 16, 2016, 09:12:25 AM
 #25681

I think the situation is good.
Looking back at when I followed your advices or sayings, I would say you have a far better "backtesting" on long term choices than short term trading... (best decision I take reading your posts and others during 2014 and later: invest in monero long term, worst one : selling a significant part when you predicted capitulation a few weeks ago).

I do believe I warned against this and even opened a long.

I remember it and felt a similar sentiment, but Risto was out of sorts - he was not measured at all, did not give the odds as he usually would.  It was (and still is) 'possible' but even then I felt it was at best a 70/30 against a dip that low.

Historically (yes, I know it's as good as a horoscope), XMR has dipped to lows in December, broken out in Feb, had an August high and then slid down.

It has also normally reacted inversely a disproportionately to BTC price moves.  What seems to be happening is the start of a less fixed inverse relationship and Monero reacting more to events in its own sphere, which makes sense as it matures. 

I do think the GUI will be positive and Ring CT implementation, if it goes smoothly, will show we have a great dev team.   Both ETH and ZEC have blown it, albeit in different ways.  XMR just steadily chugs on and if we stay above 0.01 for the rest of this month, it is hard to see us returning significantly below it again, bar 'black swan' or a BTC run of 2013 proportions.

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December 16, 2016, 09:24:42 AM
 #25682

Listen to those you think wise and feel you can rust

A most oxidizing recommendation, and one well worth following, I say without irony.
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December 16, 2016, 09:28:35 AM
Last edit: December 16, 2016, 10:04:08 AM by ol92
 #25683

I think the situation is good.
Looking back at when I followed your advices or sayings, I would say you have a far better "backtesting" on long term choices than short term trading... (best decision I take reading your posts and others during 2014 and later: invest in monero long term, worst one : selling a significant part when you predicted capitulation a few weeks ago).

Well the good news is you were selling it to him and he knows what to do with it better.  Grin
I sold only a few hundreds (on the other hand I have only around 1000: now around 800). I don't think he is a good day trader according to its post history : good at fudamentals but day trading is a different story.
I have made my previous post to inform new comers to be cautious with this kind of advice: so they don't do the same mistakes as me
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December 16, 2016, 09:56:40 AM
 #25684

I think the situation is good.
Looking back at when I followed your advices or sayings, I would say you have a far better "backtesting" on long term choices than short term trading... (best decision I take reading your posts and others during 2014 and later: invest in monero long term, worst one : selling a significant part when you predicted capitulation a few weeks ago).

I do believe I warned against this and even opened a long.

I remember it and felt a similar sentiment, but Risto was out of sorts - he was not measured at all, did not give the odds as he usually would.  It was (and still is) 'possible' but even then I felt it was at best a 70/30 against a dip that low.

Historically (yes, I know it's as good as a horoscope), XMR has dipped to lows in December, broken out in Feb, had an August high and then slid down.

It has also normally reacted inversely a disproportionately to BTC price moves.  What seems to be happening is the start of a less fixed inverse relationship and Monero reacting more to events in its own sphere, which makes sense as it matures.  

I do think the GUI will be positive and Ring CT implementation, if it goes smoothly, will show we have a great dev team.   Both ETH and ZEC have blown it, albeit in different ways.  XMR just steadily chugs on and if we stay above 0.01 for the rest of this month, it is hard to see us returning significantly below it again, bar 'black swan' or a BTC run of 2013 proportions.

I was there in 2015 with the dramatic lows of XMR: I was afraid of similar scenario with the  rising BTC trend and the decrease of XMR, I was hesitating selling a part of my 1000 xmr: maybe I would have sold even without rpietela alarming post...

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December 16, 2016, 10:55:48 AM
 #25685

Quote from: Jesse Livermore
A man must believe in himself and his judgement if he expects to make a living at this game. That is why I don’t believe in tips.
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December 16, 2016, 11:24:16 AM
 #25686

Listen to those you think wise and feel you can rust

A most oxidizing recommendation, and one well worth following, I say without irony.


Good advice, well worth filing away somewhere.
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December 16, 2016, 11:46:46 AM
 #25687

Listen to those you think wise and feel you can rust

A most oxidizing recommendation, and one well worth following, I say without irony.


Good advice, well worth filing away somewhere.

Oops - I guess that was deserving of corrosive comment

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December 16, 2016, 01:55:22 PM
 #25688

Listen to those you think wise and feel you can rust

A most oxidizing recommendation, and one well worth following, I say without irony.


Good advice, well worth filing away somewhere.

Oops - I guess that was deserving of corrosive comment

We all are guilty of posting with a tin ear on occasion.
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December 16, 2016, 02:24:07 PM
Last edit: December 16, 2016, 03:00:16 PM by g4q34g4qg47ww
 #25689

I tend to find Risto's targets shaded just a bit pessimistic, but my ears always perk up when I see his name because he has snapped  me out of a daze more than once. I want to catch what Risto is thinking, but definitely don't throw your wad off a cliff based on any one person's guess. If you do it's your own fault unfortunately.
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December 16, 2016, 05:02:53 PM
 #25690

Guys, off-topic here but I'm finally getting around to actually putting 5 XMR on the very cool physical Monero coin that Smoothie gave out awhile back.

Instructions say to "convert hexadecimal spend_key to base64" to print on paper and then embed on-coin, under the hologram... but first off, where do I find a particular Monero address hex "spend_key", and secondly: what software or website is recommended to convert to base64 (and TEST conversion back too)?

I've googled around a bit but didn't find what's needed: I'm surely missing something simple 'cuz other people would've asked about this earlier LOL

TIA for any help Cheesy

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December 16, 2016, 05:10:43 PM
 #25691

I think that through some of Monero's more difficult times Risto, Aminorex and others have been a steadying force.  I know that when there were some pretty intensive times of weak hands dumping, they were there to catch those coins and put them away for the long run. This has helped all of us, as Monero could have been dumped into oblivion at times but, with their help the prices and thus the market cap stayed high enough to keep attracting new investors.  I will always appreciate their participation and will consider their advice as something to strongly consider before making my decision. Nobody is perfect, especially at predicting any market with any amount of certainty. I will tell you that I've learned that they are better at this than I am and that's why I generally don't make predictions, I don't want anybody to believe that I am the cause for their loss.

But I will say that Risto has earned the right to miss a call once in a while without being hit over the head with it! I for one, welcome his return and his input!
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December 16, 2016, 06:15:39 PM
 #25692

Guys, off-topic here but I'm finally getting around to actually putting 5 XMR on the very cool physical Monero coin that Smoothie gave out awhile back.

Instructions say to "convert hexadecimal spend_key to base64" to print on paper and then embed on-coin, under the hologram... but first off, where do I find a particular Monero address hex "spend_key", and secondly: what software or website is recommended to convert to base64 (and TEST conversion back too)?

I've googled around a bit but didn't find what's needed: I'm surely missing something simple 'cuz other people would've asked about this earlier LOL

TIA for any help Cheesy


You could use this site from luigi1111 (a Monero core-team member). Note that it's simply a port of:

https://github.com/luigi1111/xmr.llcoins.net

The .ZIP can be used offline if needed.


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December 16, 2016, 06:57:05 PM
 #25693

Also received my amazing coin.

Total Hero!

Thanks,
Globb0

*edit* bitcoin turned up a little but we are still creeping up or at least holding come on Monerites everywhere!


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December 16, 2016, 09:41:35 PM
 #25694

but first off, where do I find a particular Monero address hex "spend_key",

type this in monero-wallet-cli: spendkey

and secondly: what software or website is recommended to convert to base64 (and TEST conversion back too)?

Assuming some type of UNIX system:

$ echo -n 01234567890abcdef11111 | base64
MDEyMzQ1Njc4OTBhYmNkZWYxMTExMQ==
$ echo MDEyMzQ1Njc4OTBhYmNkZWYxMTExMQ== | base64 -d
01234567890abcdef11111
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December 17, 2016, 01:21:43 AM
Last edit: December 17, 2016, 02:42:05 AM by KeyJockey
 #25695

@dEBRUYNE & @MoneroMooo

Cool... thanks for those.  Totally don't grok what any of that info's about, LOL but cool to play with anyway Cheesy

So, just as a test using the info on the slip of paper that Smoothie included with the coin, here's what I got:

Smoothie had the example "Base64" text to print in the circle on paper, to cut out and insert under the hologram sticker, like this...

iOLI
b6/Kukeg
h23tC8Prlo
9OC0GF8mgn
djeI9ike
dji=

...which I had to use a jeweler's loupe to actually READ, LOL... my eye's gettin' old, man... heh

Anyway, that's...

iOLIb6/Kukegh23tC8Prlo9OC0GF8mgndjeI9ikedji=

...which I then used http://kjur.github.io/jsjws/tool_b64udec.html online to convert to...

88e2c86fafcaba47a0876ded0bc3eb968f4e0b4185f26827763788f6291e7638

...which then using luigi1111's tool, above, yielded valid Monero Address...

49cfLx1LyTK6JgUYtqSZszckGP3S8nVYLAwU4dZJUc5ZRajBUT7tGfB41cBHMxJEwfcjFmLegFypy6Z U6wDNsJcDHNwJnh2

...and SEED WORDS...

sipped bugs needed biscuit feline neither dads sulking saga anchor safety geyser patio hounded peaches juvenile moisture radar oncoming agnostic yawning teeming budget gone radar

...which worked fine on MyMonero but (of course) didn't show any balance currently or transaction history.

So... bottom line?  Smoothie, if you're reading this and you remember what address that example text on your little instruction sheet came from, maybe confirm that it's all correct and I successfully reverted back here, from the shorter simple Base64 all the way to seed words?

Pretty cool, if so.  Good system Smiley

Just wanna practice this a couple more times before actually putting any XMR onto the coin, permanently.  

Just 'cuz after all, y'know, 5 XMR going to this little fun "throwaway" coin just to play with today, may be worth equivalent of $5,000,000 purchasing power for my future grandchildren some day, LOL

P.S. {Edit} Hmm... maybe spoke too soon?  Slight quirk apparently, I didn't look closely enough before, but just now I noticed that using those seed words to log in to MyMonero shows *different* address, in fact:

Account Address (Public)
49cfLx1LyTK6JgUYtqSZszckGP3S8nVYLAwU4dZJUc5ZRZ3acjTyx3rFjnZjptwjPDWEnMuQa2wW852 NUKSeQMWMRNMDHoy

View Key (Private)
528821c52c901556be9ac964a58c80c8196efa2c0f2acfaac6f28c4b19c41b0b

Spend Key (Private)
c166e75860a1833f1db1860470d54e588f4e0b4185f26827763788f6291e7608

IS this still "the same" however, so if XMR was sent to this it would still work...?  Or...?  Hmm...

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December 17, 2016, 01:42:04 AM
 #25696

I really want to give credit to Monero for holding it's value during this Bitcoin rise. $8.50 at the moment.
Looking at the USD charts, it has been pegged linearly since the reversal of the DNM selloff. The BTC rise isn't shaking off XMR as it usually does to alts.

Anyone have a guess as to why?
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December 17, 2016, 02:55:08 AM
 #25697

I really want to give credit to Monero for holding it's value during this Bitcoin rise. $8.50 at the moment.
Looking at the USD charts, it has been pegged linearly since the reversal of the DNM selloff. The BTC rise isn't shaking off XMR as it usually does to alts.

Anyone have a guess as to why?

Honeypony don't care

https://media.giphy.com/media/3o7TKurrJy6pQVq4qA/giphy.gif


██████████
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XMR Open Alias: phishead@xmr.id
"I just opened a 2004 barolo in your and all the devs honour"  eyejay:  Decemeber 22nd, 2016
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December 17, 2016, 03:06:14 AM
 #25698

I really want to give credit to Monero for holding it's value during this Bitcoin rise. $8.50 at the moment.
Looking at the USD charts, it has been pegged linearly since the reversal of the DNM selloff. The BTC rise isn't shaking off XMR as it usually does to alts.

Anyone have a guess as to why?

Because:

1. XMR is not a BTC clone like most other shitcoins
2. Refer to number 1. Grin

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December 17, 2016, 03:41:55 AM
 #25699

@dEBRUYNE & @MoneroMooo

Cool... thanks for those.  Totally don't grok what any of that info's about, LOL but cool to play with anyway Cheesy

So, just as a test using the info on the slip of paper that Smoothie included with the coin, here's what I got:

Smoothie had the example "Base64" text to print in the circle on paper, to cut out and insert under the hologram sticker, like this...

iOLI
b6/Kukeg
h23tC8Prlo
9OC0GF8mgn
djeI9ike
dji=

...which I had to use a jeweler's loupe to actually READ, LOL... my eye's gettin' old, man... heh

Anyway, that's...

iOLIb6/Kukegh23tC8Prlo9OC0GF8mgndjeI9ikedji=

...which I then used http://kjur.github.io/jsjws/tool_b64udec.html online to convert to...

88e2c86fafcaba47a0876ded0bc3eb968f4e0b4185f26827763788f6291e7638

...which then using luigi1111's tool, above, yielded valid Monero Address...

49cfLx1LyTK6JgUYtqSZszckGP3S8nVYLAwU4dZJUc5ZRajBUT7tGfB41cBHMxJEwfcjFmLegFypy6Z U6wDNsJcDHNwJnh2

...and SEED WORDS...

sipped bugs needed biscuit feline neither dads sulking saga anchor safety geyser patio hounded peaches juvenile moisture radar oncoming agnostic yawning teeming budget gone radar

...which worked fine on MyMonero but (of course) didn't show any balance currently or transaction history.

So... bottom line?  Smoothie, if you're reading this and you remember what address that example text on your little instruction sheet came from, maybe confirm that it's all correct and I successfully reverted back here, from the shorter simple Base64 all the way to seed words?

Pretty cool, if so.  Good system Smiley

Just wanna practice this a couple more times before actually putting any XMR onto the coin, permanently.  

Just 'cuz after all, y'know, 5 XMR going to this little fun "throwaway" coin just to play with today, may be worth equivalent of $5,000,000 purchasing power for my future grandchildren some day, LOL

P.S. {Edit} Hmm... maybe spoke too soon?  Slight quirk apparently, I didn't look closely enough before, but just now I noticed that using those seed words to log in to MyMonero shows *different* address, in fact:

Account Address (Public)
49cfLx1LyTK6JgUYtqSZszckGP3S8nVYLAwU4dZJUc5ZRZ3acjTyx3rFjnZjptwjPDWEnMuQa2wW852 NUKSeQMWMRNMDHoy

View Key (Private)
528821c52c901556be9ac964a58c80c8196efa2c0f2acfaac6f28c4b19c41b0b

Spend Key (Private)
c166e75860a1833f1db1860470d54e588f4e0b4185f26827763788f6291e7608

IS this still "the same" however, so if XMR was sent to this it would still work...?  Or...?  Hmm...

Honestly, I took a pre-created sample private spend key and modified it (just because). So I wouldn't know the address or view key.

This is good that you are playing around with it and testing it. As I've indicated in the instructions you should create/generate your own keys to test with prior to sending any amounts to the address.

Proceed with caution.  Smiley

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 ██████    ▐▓▓▓▓▌,     ▄█▓▓▓▌    ██████─
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. ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM        My PGP fingerprint is A764D833.                  History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ .
LEALANA  PHYSICAL MONERO COINS 999 FINE SILVER.
 
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December 17, 2016, 05:09:12 PM
 #25700


LOL oh man that is one weird-ass gif!!!

And, "HoneyPony" LOL LOL --- I think you just invented the next Major Monero Meme there Cheesy




Because:

1. XMR is not a BTC clone like most other shitcoins
2. Refer to number 1. Grin


1. XMR is not a BTC clone like most other shitcoins
2. Refer to number 1. Grin
3. Profit...!!!

FTFY Cheesy




Honestly, I took a pre-created sample private spend key and modified it (just because). So I wouldn't know the address or view key.

This is good that you are playing around with it and testing it. As I've indicated in the instructions you should create/generate your own keys to test with prior to sending any amounts to the address.

Proceed with caution.  Smiley


Okay, thanks... will do.  Hope this helped others here using your cool coin too... good luck to everyone Smiley

- 1KeyJKVWVxdavKTetDJpQWdUaota5jbtX6 -
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