[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Hueristic]

it was quite apparent what was going on when he starting trying to shill his token with promises beyond reality.

While I do believe from what i have read that Risto has defaulted on some obligations, from what I know of him elsewhere, I suspect the principal deceptions were self-deceptions.  It seems likely that the dissonance between his honorable intentions and the outcome of some earlier unwise decisions is creating internal stresses under which one might easily crumble.  Such times test men's souls.  Clearly, from the red, he will not escape with reputation intact.  I do hope he can come out the other side with his moral integrity and his health intact.  Creditors should wisely will themselves to agree, as without them their haircuts are likely to be close to the skin indeed.

I have always felt risto thought he was above the common man and he has said so himself so I am in no way surprised as I watched him manipulate people when trying to acquire or unload. I have not had personal contact so I could be way off base but this is my opinion and we all know what they are worth. I do hope he gets help and makes everyone whole but I do not see that coming anytime soon. I also think he is hiding behind this mental issue as a way to cover up his deceitful actions.

it was quite apparent what was going on when he starting trying to shill his token with promises beyond reality.

While I do believe from what i have read that Risto has defaulted on some obligations, from what I know of him elsewhere, I suspect the principal deceptions were self-deceptions.  It seems likely that the dissonance between his honorable intentions and the outcome of some earlier unwise decisions is creating internal stresses under which one might easily crumble.  Such times test men's souls.  Clearly, from the red, he will not escape with reputation intact.  I do hope he can come out the other side with his moral integrity and his health intact.  Creditors should wisely will themselves to agree, as without them their haircuts are likely to be close to the skin indeed.

This reflects well my own thoughts.  From the beginning I have been worried that CK could end up a liability.   Looks like it sort of did.

The elephant in the room is the possibility that RP still holds 100s of K of monero...  under these new circumstances what can we expect?

Fuel for speculation indeed...

Personally I think this coin can weather anything now including a complete dump of those coins and we both know he is not stupid so he will not dump them without getting every cent he can wrangle out of them so I have no fear of more damage than just the fact that he was a figurehead of the project. That should be a lesson that you do not follow whales and put them on pedestals. I never understood why people did in the first place. Like I said in the other thread, if this had happened say a year ago it could have crippled the project and it might never have reached the heights it has ever but now it is just a small bump in the road. But if he does dump then it would surely prove his instability, So come on Risto Dump that shit on all of us that are not groveling at your feet already.

[smooth]

Let's try not to veer too far off topic. Fraudulent fractional reserve scams and unpaid debts aren't directly related to Monero speculation

Actually it is relevant as this was a marketing decision to help create the ecosystem which is an intrgal part of speculation. Not commenting on this would be akin to not commenting on the adoption from the dark Markets.

Although I am of the opinion that the impact will be small on the ecosystem and by extension the price as those that got scammed are from what I can see the majority of long term holders that will not be put off of XMR because of this.

Good point and the subsequent discussions have demonstrated the relevance. I stand corrected.

[LennyCarl]

it was quite apparent what was going on when he starting trying to shill his token with promises beyond reality.

While I do believe from what i have read that Risto has defaulted on some obligations, from what I know of him elsewhere, I suspect the principal deceptions were self-deceptions.  It seems likely that the dissonance between his honorable intentions and the outcome of some earlier unwise decisions is creating internal stresses under which one might easily crumble.  Such times test men's souls.  Clearly, from the red, he will not escape with reputation intact.  I do hope he can come out the other side with his moral integrity and his health intact.  Creditors should wisely will themselves to agree, as without them their haircuts are likely to be close to the skin indeed.

I have always felt risto thought he was above the common man and he has said so himself so I am in no way surprised as I watched him manipulate people when trying to acquire or unload. I have not had personal contact so I could be way off base but this is my opinion and we all know what they are worth. I do hope he gets help and makes everyone whole but I do not see that coming anytime soon. I also think he is hiding behind this mental issue as a way to cover up his deceitful actions.

it was quite apparent what was going on when he starting trying to shill his token with promises beyond reality.

While I do believe from what i have read that Risto has defaulted on some obligations, from what I know of him elsewhere, I suspect the principal deceptions were self-deceptions.  It seems likely that the dissonance between his honorable intentions and the outcome of some earlier unwise decisions is creating internal stresses under which one might easily crumble.  Such times test men's souls.  Clearly, from the red, he will not escape with reputation intact.  I do hope he can come out the other side with his moral integrity and his health intact.  Creditors should wisely will themselves to agree, as without them their haircuts are likely to be close to the skin indeed.

This reflects well my own thoughts.  From the beginning I have been worried that CK could end up a liability.   Looks like it sort of did.

The elephant in the room is the possibility that RP still holds 100s of K of monero...  under these new circumstances what can we expect?

Fuel for speculation indeed...

Personally I think this coin can weather anything now including a complete dump of those coins and we both know he is not stupid so he will not dump them without getting every cent he can wrangle out of them so I have no fear of more damage than just the fact that he was a figurehead of the project. That should be a lesson that you do not follow whales and put them on pedestals. I never understood why people did in the first place. Like I said in the other thread, if this had happened say a year ago it could have crippled the project and it might never have reached the heights it has ever but now it is just a small bump in the road. But if he does dump then it would surely prove his instability, So come on Risto Dump that shit on all of us that are not groveling at your feet already.

Very nice post! And I admit I was influenced by his reputation and XMR price predictions last year and have learned a lesson (he may be a good guy but is fucking up left and right). All good now for me, though.

It's funny, I was away for a 1 week camping trip with no internet and it was nice. Don't understand how you whales stay in the game and stress yourselves out(?)!

[nanobrain]

I know its trivial in light of the fact this is a thread about XMR price speculation: but for the record XMR has just smashed the ATH in terms of USD and the buy/sell ratio (while clearly manipulated) looks very healthy, suggesting the next week is going to be extremely positive.

Of course, it could all just be about Risto....

[bovcan]

for the record XMR has just smashed the ATH in terms of USD

According to Trading View chart, USD ATH js about $27.75, so still a ways to go to reach that level again.

[aminorex]

buy/sell ratio (while clearly manipulated) looks very healthy

My rule of thumb has been that the equilibrium price in a sideways market is roughly 2*bids/offers.  During a FOMO run it goes to about 3*, and during a panic it goes to about 1*.  There are numerous reasons why such an estimation should be deemed specious, with trivial manipulability prominent among them. Nonetheless, it has served my thumb well, in the rough, historically.

[aminorex]

for the record XMR has just smashed the ATH in terms of USD

According to Trading View chart, USD ATH js about $27.75, so still a ways to go to reach that level again.

Trading view chart is deceiving you, I think.  This is a new ATH.  Using bitfinex' gox-ed numeraire pricing perhaps?

[mfgex]

for the record XMR has just smashed the ATH in terms of USD

According to Trading View chart, USD ATH js about $27.75, so still a ways to go to reach that level again.

you're looking at is in terms of USDT, and not USD.  USDT = ~0.93USD.

[Traslavin]

I know its trivial in light of the fact this is a thread about XMR price speculation: but for the record XMR has just smashed the ATH in terms of USD and the buy/sell ratio (while clearly manipulated) looks very healthy, suggesting the next week is going to be extremely positive.

Of course, it could all just be about Risto....

I think the bitcoin price is more important. It means it is taking more market share from bitcoin.

[KeyJockey]

I think the bitcoin price is more important. It means it is taking more market share from bitcoin.

Depends if you're trading/gambling to try and use alts to build up your bitcoin stash, or investing long term in the overall crypto-currency concept.

Pricing in dollars is basically a measure of the total value that *all* crypto, combined, is absorbing from the old-world, dying, fiat-currency global system.

Both measurements are important...

[prabakharras]

I like to look at alts in BTC https://www.coingecko.com/en/price_charts/monero/btc
while BTC in dollars

[kurious]

I think the bitcoin price is more important. It means it is taking more market share from bitcoin.

Depends if you're trading/gambling to try and use alts to build up your bitcoin stash, or investing long term in the overall crypto-currency concept.

Pricing in dollars is basically a measure of the total value that *all* crypto, combined, is absorbing from the old-world, dying, fiat-currency global system.

Both measurements are important...

Ultimately, if you're cashing out - or at least want to know what your stash is actually worth, then USD is what you value it in.

If BTC tanks to $500, then it won't matter of the XMR/BTC exchange rate is twice as good, you will end up with less fiat.  Until we can all pay our bills in BTC, or (better still) Monero directly - the USD rate does matter and it is still how we work out the 'real world' purchasing power of our XMR.  There is no getting away from it - you can pay for some things in BTC now - but is still based upon the rate it converts into fiat. 

So it IS wise to think in terms of a fiat value.  We all put fiat IN at some point to get started, knowing how much we have increased this value if we cashed out is a measure worth knowing.   

[Febo]

I like to look at alts in BTC https://www.coingecko.com/en/price_charts/monero/btc
while BTC in dollars

If you look alts in BTC you should also look BTC in BTC. Pretty stupid to do it selective.

[smooth]

I know its trivial in light of the fact this is a thread about XMR price speculation: but for the record XMR has just smashed the ATH in terms of USD and the buy/sell ratio (while clearly manipulated) looks very healthy, suggesting the next week is going to be extremely positive.

Of course, it could all just be about Risto....

I think the bitcoin price is more important. It means it is taking more market share from bitcoin.

Other comments about whether one is investing in (or speculating on) market share or overall crypto success are valid, but I would also say that the concept of market share assumes there is one market. What if Bitcoin and at least some of the others address fundamentally different (or different but only partially overlapping) markets?

[Nathan047]

Well, Monero is currently at 23$ and climbing. Perhaps we are overdue for a pump like Ethereum and DASH got? I sure hope we are.


Monero Price. source: coinmarketcap
*Edit: This is a chart of the last 7 days

[LennyCarl]

So what's the deal on the bitcoin forkokalypse and coinbase adoption??? It's messing with my plans for the next six months, LOL.

I.e.:Huge price pump (BTC'ers move their money to XMR), take money off the table, price subsides, buy back in bigger, wait for the September hard fork, profit big time (and keep hodling a chunk... )

[CTTE]

Well, Monero is currently at 23$ and climbing. Perhaps we are overdue for a pump like Ethereum and DASH got? I sure hope we are.


Monero Price. source: coinmarketcap

The one problem with charts like this is that without a scale, this is pretty worthless because it could be in 1 minute or 1 week bars/intervals...  it would help to know the bar size and the period.

[Nathan047]

Well, Monero is currently at 23$ and climbing. Perhaps we are overdue for a pump like Ethereum and DASH got? I sure hope we are.


Monero Price. source: coinmarketcap

The one problem with charts like this is that without a scale, this is pretty worthless because it could be in 1 minute or 1 week bars/intervals...  it would help to know the bar size and the period.

Whoops, guess that would be pretty useful. I just updated the post to include the timeline of the chart (which is the last 7 days by the way). Perhaps this will clarify things a bit.

[KeyJockey]

Other comments about whether one is investing in (or speculating on) market share or overall crypto success are valid, but I would also say that the concept of market share assumes there is one market. What if Bitcoin and at least some of the others address fundamentally different (or different but only partially overlapping) markets?

That's a very good point, and in fact probably IS true and probably also the main reason why my overall percentage of ALTS is much more heavily weighted to Monero than all other coins, besides bitcoin.

XMR is probably IMHO the number one most likely alt to have a shot at successfully co-existing with BTC if some day the BTC dominance re-asserts itself (i.e. if the scaling issues are resolved and all the pump money that's gone into alts lately reverts back to the mothership...)

In other words, just as XMR has not pumped as much as other alts in these last weird months of Fear & Loathing In Bitcoin Scaling, if this situation turns around I'd expect XMR won't be hurt as much on the way down either.

Bitcoin can *NEVER BE* a lot of what Monero already IS and that's not likely to change, ever.  Most other altcoins?  Not so much...

[aminorex]

Bitcoin can *NEVER BE* a lot of what Monero already IS and that's not likely to change, ever.  Most other altcoins?  Not so much...

There is nothing standing between xmr and it's successor as the primary legitimate fungible digital cash except marketcap.  Admittedly overcoming that obstacle can be challenging, but it is a vast, fecund, and competitive space.  The sooner we get back in front of ethereum, the less I will worry about the marketcap moat.