[XMR] Monero Speculation

[phishead]

[1715072591]

1715072591

[1715072591]

1715072591

[Hueristic]

Did you guys realize that we are THE top thread in altcoin speculation? Take a look https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=224.0;sort=replies;desc Not just a little bit. By a fucking mile. 37k replies to 8k runner up.

It's easy to forget.

Brilliant.
Thanks for all the replies (and friendly PMs too...what a lovely bunch you are!).

So, does this airdrop thing mean I'm suddenly going to have a huge pile of coins appear from nowhere (ala BCH)...I imagine not since this would have pushed demand and the price wouldn't be going south.

Anyway, I'll keep HODLing and try not to get too depressed looking at teh charts.

Meh, we all know the charts change with the wind.

I didn't hedge XMR specifically. I hedged my whole crypto portfolio in a way by selling my bitcoin when it started falling hard and putting in a stop order at the price that I sold it at. So worst case scenario, if it stops falling and going back up the exchange will automatically buy it back at the same price that I sold. No fancy contracts or anything. I cant even get on bitfinex being an american. Either way though it makes me feel so much less stressed about both the decline in bitcoin and monero.

Thanks for the precision. So if I understand correctly you simply:

1- hodl when you think it will go up
2- sell your coins and buy them back (if they return to previous level) when you think it will go down
advantage = you don't lose if the coin never recovers. You can still change your buy order if you think the coin bottomed
?

I thought you were opening short positions which is common on FOREX. I have searched for solutions but I never found a cheap/convenient way to do that with cryptocurrencies.

I would recommend to never short XMR, it's real easy way to lose, when it spikes it will smack you every time. In the long run you will do much better holding, even longing is dangerous.

...
Also, unrelated, apparently halong had one too:
https://twitter.com/HalongMining/status/974189005712576512?s=19

Vaporware me thinks.

10x airdrop, >5% premine

so extrapolating, 5%*10=50% (it says greater than too  )

a dev pre mine of half the size of monero in total.
[Garbage Image}

This sounds about right, excellent representation but I think this shot may be more representative (hint: where's waldo).

If the ASIC miners were mining for quick profit they may have consumed a lot of buy pressure the last 6 months by selling as they mined it
If more "holder types" mine Monero after the fork  it could change the price a bit, less than 5 XMR reward for each block now. The asics could have been taking up to half of available mined coins

2True, I think we all knew this was going on just from the hash rate increase.

Without looking anything up,

100 days x 24 hours x 30 blocks/hr x 5 XMR=360 000

I'm on a boat, with too many distractions, so that may be fucked up...

Damn, there went my last paper wallet overboard!   Now see what you've done!

Just Lol...

[alaskabm]

Next week the G20 is coming up and they will also talk about crypto. As stated in the public document of the G20(: https://back-g20.argentina.gob.ar/sites/default/files/media/finance_ministerial_highlights.pdf) they understand that crypto has the potential to promote financial inclusion but at the same time they will try to analyse implications to financial stability, tax evasion and financing illegal activities. These statements are nothing new and very similar to what was said previously at the US senate hearings.

Could this have implications on Monero?

[Gaben.]

...so let me get this right.

The biggest claim with regards to monerov being a scam are that they are having people enter their private key in a closed source wallet?

Correct me if I'm wrong what what's the harm in waiting for an open source one?

Also, being given the option to sell/monetize personal transaction histories at will en masse seems like a major opportunity I would think?

The biggest concern for Monero is the potential damage of privacy via an on chain fork that requires private key use to claim an airdrop. Private key reuse is a new-ish attack vector on the network.

My guess is that they could care less whether or not its a scam.
However, claims regarding a scam revolve around the unknown team, closed source software, 10x airdrop, >5% premine, questionable claims on finite supply, coin serves a duplicate or unknown purpose and despite being made aware how their on chain fork damages the privacy of both networks they're moving forward.

It will be interesting to see who or if any exchange supports them.

Wouldn't the potential 'damage to privacy' claim necessarily be dependent on whether or not the pk is actually shared publicly, or rather with someone collecting many? Is it being implied that a closed source wallet would automatically upload your private keys to some tla database is a little much I think. Especially if anyone is running Windows, operating over a WiFi connection, etc... I mean chances are they already got the data if they want it.

So aside from that, the concern i can discern would be more toward an unaffiliated third party (utp) like a marketing agency having the ability to monetize transaction data, if they obtained the private key of a wallet through this means. Alternatively, the tax man could also purchase such data from the utp. For one - there are a series of legal precedents that need to be considered before that could happen which I haven't had much thought on, and have not read much.

Over the next few months, monerov and it's affilitates (provided this isn't some elaborate scalping) will be filling this role. From there onwards, others may likely do the same.

My point here is that regardless of what monerov is doing now - years down the line what's stopping literally anyone from forking monero and actually releasing a closed source wallet with published capacity to add your pk to a database and use said information for whatever purpose they wish? What if some utp decides to put up a market peg of a million dollars bid in exchange for as many pk's as will fill the order?

[rinus]

Just finished Reading my Financial magazine ( same magazine that advised me to buy Monero ) said we could see higher usd prices but if we keep going down, we could see 80 , even 16 usd by year end... this actually scares me a bit.

[explorer]

Just finished Reading my Financial magazine ( same magazine that advised me to buy Monero ) said we could see higher usd prices but if we keep going down, we could see 80 , even 16 usd by year end... this actually scares me a bit.

All that and $400 bitcoin. 

[rinus]

Just finished Reading my Financial magazine ( same magazine that advised me to buy Monero ) said we could see higher usd prices but if we keep going down, we could see 80 , even 16 usd by year end... this actually scares me a bit.

All that and $400 bitcoin. 

Thats what u really believe?

[Globb0]

No, the wallet is not the only issue.

Much more fundamental stuff here, spends on different chains could reveal things about the other.

[Shnikes101]

...so let me get this right.

The biggest claim with regards to monerov being a scam are that they are having people enter their private key in a closed source wallet?

Correct me if I'm wrong what what's the harm in waiting for an open source one?

Also, being given the option to sell/monetize personal transaction histories at will en masse seems like a major opportunity I would think?

The biggest concern for Monero is the potential damage of privacy via an on chain fork that requires private key use to claim an airdrop. Private key reuse is a new-ish attack vector on the network.

My guess is that they could care less whether or not its a scam.
However, claims regarding a scam revolve around the unknown team, closed source software, 10x airdrop, >5% premine, questionable claims on finite supply, coin serves a duplicate or unknown purpose and despite being made aware how their on chain fork damages the privacy of both networks they're moving forward.

It will be interesting to see who or if any exchange supports them.

Wouldn't the potential 'damage to privacy' claim necessarily be dependent on whether or not the pk is actually shared publicly, or rather with someone collecting many? Is it being implied that a closed source wallet would automatically upload your private keys to some tla database is a little much I think. Especially if anyone is running Windows, operating over a WiFi connection, etc... I mean chances are they already got the data if they want it.

So aside from that, the concern i can discern would be more toward an unaffiliated third party (utp) like a marketing agency having the ability to monetize transaction data, if they obtained the private key of a wallet through this means. Alternatively, the tax man could also purchase such data from the utp. For one - there are a series of legal precedents that need to be considered before that could happen which I haven't had much thought on, and have not read much.

Over the next few months, monerov and it's affilitates (provided this isn't some elaborate scalping) will be filling this role. From there onwards, others may likely do the same.

My point here is that regardless of what monerov is doing now - years down the line what's stopping literally anyone from forking monero and actually releasing a closed source wallet with published capacity to add your pk to a database and use said information for whatever purpose they wish? What if some utp decides to put up a market peg of a million dollars bid in exchange for as many pk's as will fill the order?

Outside of the general phishing risk that occurs with private key reuse - I'd agree that scale most likely matters on the transaction Key Image attack vector. From what I've read though, I'm leaning towards that information isn't private. Please someone correct me if I'm wrong.

From the SerHack article that I posted above:
"Each Monero transaction generates a “key image” that secretly encodes the amount of Monero transferred and the public address of the true sender. These key images typically protect transaction anonymity while preventing “double-spending” attacks and illegitimate attempts to inflate the Monero supply with fake coins. It is dangerous to claim MoneroV because these key images will be identical on both chains, which can be exploited to reveal the true sender of both transactions. This reduction in privacy allows Monero (and MoneroV) transactions to be linked in a manner that is not typically possible. The negative ramifications extend far beyond the individuals that use both chains, since any user on either chain may unknowingly employ compromised transactions as decoy ring members."

I'd disagree with "Chances are they already got it." I'd also disagree that there are legal precedents in this space. Please provide sources and/or an explanation for your reasoning.

I'm confused on what role you think MoneroV and it's affiliates will be filling? (and who MoneroV and its affiliates are). Are you implying that MoneroV main purpose is marketing Monero transaction data? A quest to destroy Monero's privacy?

If future parties present new on chain forks that require your private keys in a blatant phishing attempt or attack on the network, the community will do exactly what they are doing now. Make people aware of the risks and build tools to help protect the network in the future.

Look, myself and I'm assuming many others in this thread are more than willing to support a new coin that introduces new and better privacy technology. In fact, I'd almost wager that it is inevitable for a better product to eventually come to market. The fact is MoneroV doesn't introduce any new tech and potentially harms the privacy of both networks. Despite being made aware of their flawed approach, MoneroV pushes forward with no new technology to speak of. I'd agree that the only value add MoneroV has presented is introducing a new attack vector that needed to be solved - which Monero Devs are actively working to mitigate. There's a chance some new tools make it into the next release that will further mitigate this attack and types like it in the future.

For fun - another one of my favorite MoneroV claims is that the MyMonero wallet not only supports but is the best wallet to use to claim your shitdrop.
Of course, MyMonero has to then write a post saying that is false: https://medium.com/@tweetingpauls/beware-of-non-native-forks-of-monero-6f5a0bf1fccf

[Shnikes101]

No, the wallet is not the only issue.

Much more fundamental stuff here, spends on different chains could reveal things about the other.

I should have just replied with this. Oh well

[Nathan047]

A nice picture from the net:

https://i.gyazo.com/3f0185d7cea14dfdcefae9f115758691.png

Mind sharing what kind of a hardware wallet that is? It looks really interesting, but I have a feeling it's also really expensive...

[Shnikes101]

A nice picture from the net:

https://i.gyazo.com/3f0185d7cea14dfdcefae9f115758691.png

Mind sharing what kind of a hardware wallet that is? It looks really interesting, but I have a feeling it's also really expensive...

It's a ledger nano s. Support is coming soon

[chennan]

A nice picture from the net:

https://i.gyazo.com/3f0185d7cea14dfdcefae9f115758691.png

Mind sharing what kind of a hardware wallet that is? It looks really interesting, but I have a feeling it's also really expensive...

It's really not that expensive, nano S is around $94 + probably shipping & handling.  In terms of having a piece of mind that all of your coins are decently secure and not having to worry about key loggers, etc; that's actually a really good price point.

https://www.ledgerwallet.com/products/ledger-nano-s

[johnalan]

A nice picture from the net:

https://i.gyazo.com/3f0185d7cea14dfdcefae9f115758691.png

Mind sharing what kind of a hardware wallet that is? It looks really interesting, but I have a feeling it's also really expensive...

It's really not that expensive, nano S is around $94 + probably shipping & handling.  In terms of having a piece of mind that all of your coins are decently secure and not having to worry about key loggers, etc; that's actually a really good price point.

https://www.ledgerwallet.com/products/ledger-nano-s

Picture is real they are my hands.

It's just the dev build for Monero on a NanoS, smooth as silk though.

Really looking forward to using it on mainnet.

ps. to the dude asking about if Monero will hit 16usd by year end, I doubt it.

[Febo]

A nice picture from the net:

https://i.gyazo.com/3f0185d7cea14dfdcefae9f115758691.png

Mind sharing what kind of a hardware wallet that is? It looks really interesting, but I have a feeling it's also really expensive...

It's really not that expensive, nano S is around $94 + probably shipping & handling.  In terms of having a piece of mind that all of your coins are decently secure and not having to worry about key loggers, etc; that's actually a really good price point.

https://www.ledgerwallet.com/products/ledger-nano-s

I got two for $130 on last year's black friday.

[johnalan]

Just finished Reading my Financial magazine ( same magazine that advised me to buy Monero ) said we could see higher usd prices but if we keep going down, we could see 80 , even 16 usd by year end... this actually scares me a bit.

So let me get this straight, the magazine said the price could go up or down? 

[rinus]

Just finished Reading my Financial magazine ( same magazine that advised me to buy Monero ) said we could see higher usd prices but if we keep going down, we could see 80 , even 16 usd by year end... this actually scares me a bit.

So let me get this straight, the magazine said the price could go up or down? 

sorry , i was at work when i posted... Specific it said when some kind of support ( 2 year trend channel ) is broken , we could dip to 80 later this year , or worst case back to 16 dollar by next year.
But we could also go up to 700 / 1000 usd because of all the good news that is comming. hardware wallet , ... basically he just said that the comming weeks are really important for crypto and that xmr
is touching the lower lows of the 2 year trend channel ... so that creept me out a bit because the same person advised me ( and others ) to get into xmr 3 years ago

[Globb0]

Just finished Reading my Financial magazine ( same magazine that advised me to buy Monero ) said we could see higher usd prices but if we keep going down, we could see 80 , even 16 usd by year end... this actually scares me a bit.

So let me get this straight, the magazine said the price could go up or down? 

sorry , i was at work when i posted... Specific it said when some kind of support ( 2 year trend channel ) is broken , we could dip to 80 later this year , or worst case back to 16 dollar by next year.
But we could also go up to 700 / 1000 usd because of all the good news that is comming. hardware wallet , ... basically he just said that the comming weeks are really important for crypto and that xmr
is touching the lower lows of the 2 year trend channel ... so that creept me out a bit because the same person advised me ( and others ) to get into xmr 3 years ago

Perhaps that's why charting doesn't work very well on this.

We have such a symbiotic relationship with other factors that's its near on irrelevant to look at in isolation.

[blumkinnn]

Monero is a cryptocurrency who really cares about privacy. I believe in the long term that it will be much more valuable than the present. It's the right time to buy Monero.

Perhaps this is the main advantage of Monero. The price for it will necessarily grow in the coming months. Now you need to wait and hold

[Globb0]

Privacy is a think. World people about that care. This is good. I will buy soon.