[XMR] Monero Speculation

[tokeweed]

Well thanks to John Foss' newsletter here is the tech info for Seraphis:

https://gist.github.com/UkoeHB/f508a6ad973fbf85195403057e87449e

And for Jamtis... the new addressing scheme:

https://gist.github.com/tevador/50160d160d24cfc6c52ae02eb3d17024

These are mammoth consensus changes in my opinion.  Monero has always had a somewhat progressive approach to consensus level changes.

I am not technical enough to know what the risks are (and I am pretty technical).  But I can see well enough that this stuff is going to introduce a lot of possibility of risk.

I am not trying to FUD by any means.. and the Monero community has ALWAYS had an environment welcoming dubious opinion.  So I am stating a firsh blush opinion that I hope the right amount of caution is being taken in introducing these changes.

I think it would be naive to assume that there are not powerful, smart, actors that would love to change monero in a way that would cause it to have a chink in it's armor. 

How do we know that consensus changes of this level are not exactly that?

Here's something I wondering about...  First just to let you guys know, I haven't been reading a whole lot of info about XMR in Reddit and Twitter for more around 4 years now, my Twitter account is now exclusively following some guys doing MMA prediction stuff and I've unfollowed everybody in crypto. 

The only guy I tag or ping in crypto is Fluffy and that's just in tweets that are related to helping dogs.

Anyway, the thing I'm wondering about is if Fluffy supports the changes or not... 

[smooth]

To believe that highly technical consensus changes (even if they're not large) don't have an exploit, you'd have to have confidence in a LOT of public scrutiny IN PRACTICE. Just being open source is not enough. Remember the heartbleed bug that was introduced in 2012 to openssl but not widely recognized as a devastating exploit until 2014.

I don't know if Monero is making the right tradeoffs in terms of upgrades, the pace they are made, and the balance between effort into researching and implementing changes (interesting and high payoff!) and review (often boring and no payoff!). You have to consider that the old protocol or implementation may not be that great either, indeed it may even have deliberate exploits (I don't know of any, apart from all of the public limited ring size issues) and the situation would improve by replacing it.

[johnfoss]

THE MONERO MOON (ISSUE 59) is out now to keep you old-timers at Bitcointalk entertained while you sip your Barolo :-)

https://www.themoneromoon.com/p/the-monero-moon-issue-59

[johnfoss]

https://www.themoneromoon.com/p/the-monero-moon-issue-60

[kurious]

Well thanks to John Foss' newsletter here is the tech info for Seraphis:

https://gist.github.com/UkoeHB/f508a6ad973fbf85195403057e87449e

And for Jamtis... the new addressing scheme:

https://gist.github.com/tevador/50160d160d24cfc6c52ae02eb3d17024

These are mammoth consensus changes in my opinion.  Monero has always had a somewhat progressive approach to consensus level changes.

I am not technical enough to know what the risks are (and I am pretty technical).  But I can see well enough that this stuff is going to introduce a lot of possibility of risk.

I am not trying to FUD by any means.. and the Monero community has ALWAYS had an environment welcoming dubious opinion.  So I am stating a firsh blush opinion that I hope the right amount of caution is being taken in introducing these changes.

I think it would be naive to assume that there are not powerful, smart, actors that would love to change monero in a way that would cause it to have a chink in it's armor. 

How do we know that consensus changes of this level are not exactly that?

Here's something I wondering about...  First just to let you guys know, I haven't been reading a whole lot of info about XMR in Reddit and Twitter for more around 4 years now, my Twitter account is now exclusively following some guys doing MMA prediction stuff and I've unfollowed everybody in crypto. 

The only guy I tag or ping in crypto is Fluffy and that's just in tweets that are related to helping dogs.

Anyway, the thing I'm wondering about is if Fluffy supports the changes or not... 

Is he saying anything right now, I wonder..?

I feel the same as cAPSLOCK, I haven't seen a proper conversation over what the changes will mean and who exactly thinks what.  Fluffy's thoughts would be welcome but I understand why he is not around to say his piece.   

Back in the day there was a lot of chatter and devs would drop by - I always felt pretty reassured.  Now it's just 'fingers crossed' it will be OK.   Price is looking sweet enough, XMR is easily outdoing the likes of LTC and other coins with a decent rep and respected history.  We just have to hope we're being looked after by safe hands.

Happy New Year to everyone, let's hope it's a good one for Monero.

[Hueristic]

https://odysee.com/@MoneroTalk:8/veteran-darknet-vendor-doingfedtime:2

[BossTrack]

As the banking cartel gets increasingly more tyrannical and inflation becomes more and more thinly veiled I become more bullish on Monero.

[tokeweed]

Well thanks to John Foss' newsletter here is the tech info for Seraphis:

https://gist.github.com/UkoeHB/f508a6ad973fbf85195403057e87449e

And for Jamtis... the new addressing scheme:

https://gist.github.com/tevador/50160d160d24cfc6c52ae02eb3d17024

These are mammoth consensus changes in my opinion.  Monero has always had a somewhat progressive approach to consensus level changes.

I am not technical enough to know what the risks are (and I am pretty technical).  But I can see well enough that this stuff is going to introduce a lot of possibility of risk.

I am not trying to FUD by any means.. and the Monero community has ALWAYS had an environment welcoming dubious opinion.  So I am stating a firsh blush opinion that I hope the right amount of caution is being taken in introducing these changes.

I think it would be naive to assume that there are not powerful, smart, actors that would love to change monero in a way that would cause it to have a chink in it's armor.  

How do we know that consensus changes of this level are not exactly that?

Here's something I wondering about...  First just to let you guys know, I haven't been reading a whole lot of info about XMR in Reddit and Twitter for more around 4 years now, my Twitter account is now exclusively following some guys doing MMA prediction stuff and I've unfollowed everybody in crypto.  

The only guy I tag or ping in crypto is Fluffy and that's just in tweets that are related to helping dogs.

Anyway, the thing I'm wondering about is if Fluffy supports the changes or not...  

Is he saying anything right now, I wonder..?

I feel the same as cAPSLOCK, I haven't seen a proper conversation over what the changes will mean and who exactly thinks what.  Fluffy's thoughts would be welcome but I understand why he is not around to say his piece.  

Back in the day there was a lot of chatter and devs would drop by - I always felt pretty reassured.  Now it's just 'fingers crossed' it will be OK.   Price is looking sweet enough, XMR is easily outdoing the likes of LTC and other coins with a decent rep and respected history.  We just have to hope we're being looked after by safe hands.

Happy New Year to everyone, let's hope it's a good one for Monero.

No, I haven't heard much from him on things about or related to Monero or crypto.  I stopped following him in Twitter tho or any of those crypto guys I used to follow.  I just want to have fun again and stop taking this stuff seriously.  Everybody is mostly here for number go up anyway.

But after Fluffy getting caught and held in a US prison I would be a bit uneasy if he becomes vocal about supporting any important changes out of the blue.  Not saying TPTB got to him or anything, just saying...  XMR is the last bastion of hope in crypto imho.  Devs can't afford to fk this up.

[cAPSLOCK]

Devs can't afford to fk this up.

That's the money basically.  And I am hoping they are not.  I am going to dig in a little this weekend and see what I see.  I have begun to make a list of "line in the sand" criteria.  For example I want full backwards compatibility with the old addressing scheme.  Similar to Segwit and Taproot.  But since this is a HARD fork (as usual) they do not HAVE to do that.  This one seems to obvious it hurts... they HAVE to have backwards compatibility.  Anyway... if I feel it is relevant I will share my thoughts.  (currently I doubt it will be lol... but we will see).

Also...  *IF* the Monero devs got captured somehow...  ah never mind.  I will bring that up later, maybe.

[tokeweed]

^  Why change the addressing scheme, how did that come about?  If something ain't broke, don't fix it.  IMHO.  But I guess if they're really gonna push for it, I think we should be able to generate a new address with the new addressing scheme from our old private keys.  That at least could make the transition a bit easier for the user.  But from a community wide perspective, a change this radical could pose some considerable 'inconveniences'.  Imagine not being able to send XMR to say a gambling site cos the site hasn't upgraded yet.  :/

I guess it's back to Tronz coinz again. 

[johnfoss]

Keep up to date with Monero!

https://www.themoneromoon.com/p/the-monero-moon-issue-61

 

[cAPSLOCK]

Good grief.

cAPS decides to stop posting at the BCT idiot forum and suddenly the Monero speculation thread has not had a post for the better part of a month.

C'mon people!

OK... OK... I will give you a bullish bit of info.

I had to reinstall my main OS.  I use Arch Linux.   And to get the regular Monero binaries (GUI and command line) you typically have to go into the "user repository" (AUR).  This means, essentially, that you compile a binary of the program, maintained by a volunteer.  You basically build the program from source. It is not an official package for the distribution.

But behold!



Arch Linux now includes Monero as an official program in the community repository!

Yeah.. this is sort of fringe stuff...  But honestly, it is also quite validating that the best linux distro now includes Monero as an 'official' app!

[dragonvslinux]

How are XMR speculators doing these days? Last year I was talking about the bearish trending 200 WMA that was likely to act as resistance on XMR/BTC. While it did act as resistance for a couple of months as price consolidated towards the downside, we also did eventually get the break to the upside. I also mentioned how I didn't trust the break-out from long-term downtrend, instead wanting to see price turn the 200 WMA (or future golden cross) into a support. We are now at that exact moment. Price has since pulled back to the 50 & 200 WMA golden cross, but so far this week has failed to bounce from this level.



There is one overall takeaway I'm getting from this chart: Monero has been outperforming Bitcoin throughout the bear market of 2022. Literally bottoming towards the end of 2021 and creating a local top at the beginning of 2023. This gives me the impression that during a continued relief rally for Bitcoin, Monero will struggle to keep up, even if dollar wise will continue to increase or hold it's value.

Overall, it was a solid 150% bounce last year for those who caught it. Even 100% could have doubled your satoshis. But I think for now, the rally is over. I've added this coin to my list of BTC-based shorts.

[Millionero]

Good grief.

cAPS decides to stop posting at the BCT idiot forum and suddenly the Monero speculation thread has not had a post for the better part of a month.

C'mon people!

OK... OK... I will give you a bullish bit of info.

I had to reinstall my main OS.  I use Arch Linux.   And to get the regular Monero binaries (GUI and command line) you typically have to go into the "user repository" (AUR).  This means, essentially, that you compile a binary of the program, maintained by a volunteer.  You basically build the program from source. It is not an official package for the distribution.

But behold!



Arch Linux now includes Monero as an official program in the community repository!

Yeah.. this is sort of fringe stuff...  But honestly, it is also quite validating that the best linux distro now includes Monero as an 'official' app!

I´m waiting on delivery of a pinebook pro.  It comes with Manjaro, which is an Arch distro.  Never used Arch before, always vanilla debian stuff like ubuntu or mint.  I´ve led a sheltered life.

[Febo]

Almost 2 years of almost no posting here made me a bit nostalgic. LOL

Monero still had not made the big break. Wonder if ever will or will just always stay to be used by minority. It is ok that way, and I am not worried it will not be at least that.

 https://shop.monerokon.com/monerokon/2023/


Monero Konferenco was announced to be in Prague in June.  Not sure why it was decided to stay in Europe for the second year. Last summer was in Portugal. But they picked nice place. Might get tempted to attend.

[dragonvslinux]

How are XMR speculators doing these days?

Wow, seems like this thread got very quiet all of a sudden  

Price has since pulled back to the 50 & 200 WMA golden cross, but so far this week has failed to bounce from this level.

As an update, and as I suspected, Monero has failed to find support from the Weekly golden cross. Probably because this golden cross of 50 WMA and 200 WMA is such a lagging indicator:



I think the next target is back down to 0.004 BTC based on the volume gap, unless price can quickly rebound back above 200 WMA. Main issue appears to be the declining volume since last year (hence gap). As I previously referenced it was a solid 150%+ move to the upside in 2022, but looks like the rally is over. In hindsight, there was never the volume to support such a breakout in the first place.

Meanwhile, XMRUSD is struggling to hold onto it's bullish trending 200 WMA at volume support, so a retest of $100 might well be on the cards if unable to consolidate at volume support. So maybe Bitcoin will stay flat in the coming weeks/months and the re-test of 0.004 BTC coincides with $100, or otherwise Bitcoin to reach $30K, with XMR maintaining around $150 but otherwise falling to 0.004 BTC. That'd be my guess.

There's an irony that BTCUSD is currently struggling at it's Weekly death cross, but just like XMRBTC hasn't found support from it's golden cross, it seems likely Bitcoin can break through it's "lagging" death cross.

[cAPSLOCK]

Wow, seems like this thread got very quiet all of a sudden  

Really it's been quiet in here for quite some time...

Meanwhile, XMRUSD is struggling to hold onto it's bullish trending 200 WMA at volume support, so a retest of $100 might well be on the cards if unable to consolidate at volume support. So maybe Bitcoin will stay flat in the coming weeks/months and the re-test of 0.004 BTC coincides with $100, or otherwise Bitcoin to reach $30K, with XMR maintaining around $150 but otherwise falling to 0.004 BTC. That'd be my guess.

There's an irony that BTCUSD is currently struggling at it's Weekly death cross, but just like XMRBTC hasn't found support from it's golden cross, it seems likely Bitcoin can break through it's "lagging" death cross.

Your calls tend to be quite good... we will see.

I do not know how long it lasts, but Monero seems to be one of the few "crypto" projects with a REAL use case.  And one at odds with BTC.

[tokeweed]

^  I don't know how long it'll last too but it seems like with all the jpegs *cough lmaooo cough* in BTC started ruffling some maxis' feathers, I think some of those guys will secretly start having some appreciation for XMR for transactions.  And who knows, some of them might be starting to get into XMR.  But there's def no way to prove it and that's exactly why they'll do it.  

Oh and again with all the jpegs in BTC, they'll stop thinking XMR is at odds with BTC.  XMR is going to be their go to in case something breaks.  

[errorcode99]

I am finished with Monero. Think about that. They put them in a South African prison, one of the most dangerous in the world. Don't you think he'll tell the authorities how to trace the transaction and who the team members are etc. to get a less severe sentence? I'm sure he will. Entire chain is compromised now.

[dragonvslinux]

Meanwhile, XMRUSD is struggling to hold onto it's bullish trending 200 WMA at volume support, so a retest of $100 might well be on the cards if unable to consolidate at volume support. So maybe Bitcoin will stay flat in the coming weeks/months and the re-test of 0.004 BTC coincides with $100, or otherwise Bitcoin to reach $30K, with XMR maintaining around $150 but otherwise falling to 0.004 BTC. That'd be my guess.

There's an irony that BTCUSD is currently struggling at it's Weekly death cross, but just like XMRBTC hasn't found support from it's golden cross, it seems likely Bitcoin can break through it's "lagging" death cross.

Your calls tend to be quite good... we will see.

I do not know how long it lasts, but Monero seems to be one of the few "crypto" projects with a REAL use case.  And one at odds with BTC.

I think long-term it still has some potential, somehow, at least fundamentally. But this year, I'm not expecting anything "good" to happen, at least not until end of the year maybe.

For reference sake XMR/BTC this week is getting heavily rejected by 200 WMA that's trending downwards in bearish formation, despite the golden cross with 50 WMA:



This probably has less to do with Monero and more to do with Bitcoin however. BTC dominance is bouncing strong this week after the recovery from $20K to $25K, as opposed to falling further. Starting to get the 2019 vibes of a continued recovery for Bitcoin that leaves alts in the dust, regardless of how relevant they are. Ethereum being another example of failing to keep up with the no.1 reserve asset this week.

Many will probably argue this is do with SVB, and therefore the mentality of investors fleeing fiat or banks for a reserve asset such as Bitcoin, as opposed to speculating on altcoins. But personally I think this is just the recovery stage of the bear market whereby Bitcoin outperforms the the rest of the market and would of happened regardless, eventually, and least this year at some point.

Another year of consolidation in the current wide range of 0.04 and 0.08 could be the ingredient needed for something relevant to happen for this coin though.