I have an economical question here about the investment - purely from a greed standpoint
We can all agree that Ethereum is going to be a huge dump, EVEN if its the best coin ever, the price of Ether is going to drop like a stone because there is so much of it and so many people had a chance to buy. So Ether will be cheaper (probably much so) within the first 6 months (probably much less) than it was in the IPO.
What is to stop the same thing from happening to SecureNet? Yes, the CORE coins could grow in value before release, increasing the value of the SuperNet asset. But if this is really the 2nd largest IPO in history, how the heck will the asset price stay afloat the first few months or days? And what if for some reason the Core coins decrease in value (post IPO dump?) after the launch of SecureNet?
I'm just playing devils advocate here. Please feel free to delete this post.
this is unmoderated so only you can delete and you have a good question, assuming you are talking of SuperNET
If this does bring in really that much of the BTC, then the vast majority will be sitting there for a while. It is not like one month we get all this BTC and in 3 days we are buying into a zillion coins. If a new coin can be properly integrated into the SuperNET core in one month for the first one after BTCD and NXT, then it would take at least a week or even two weeks for each coin. I want to make sure we are creating the most value and this will usually require some customization on both sides.
So this reality of actual dev work will necessarily slow things down, which means the great majority of the BTC is just sitting there. So, it really cant drop below the BTC value that it holds. Now if the SuperNET effect on a coin ends up being neutral on price, instead of the 10x we are seeing with BBR, then still the value is the same as the BTC put into it. So if you are theorizing that the value of all the SuperNET investments go to zero, then it is up to the supertraders to make up for such an event. I cant commit to the NAV (net asset value) of the SuperNET to never go below the initial amount, but with the diversification that is inevitable I expect SuperNET NAV to have a relatively stable overall value with an upward bias
Remember the SuperNET is backed by the BTC (BTCD + NXT) that comes in and I expect 90%+ will be BTC. I doubt we are able to invest more than 10% per month (unless we are doing deals with top 10 coins). if the market is giving any value to the future revenue streams, then this is another buffer. Unlike other cryptos, SuperNET is backed by the "hard" crypto assets from the initial funds, the gains from the supertraders and the revenues from the core assets and click ad revenues.
The supertraders portion is like the sharkfund0 (3x in ~3 months)
The revenues from the core assets and click revenues have no historical track record, but the MGW has propelled NXT AE to almost the top 10 of exchanges
http://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/nxt-asset-exchange/ without counting quite a few assets in the volume totals, so there is some chance I am able to actually get code working. This also bodes well for InstantDEX volumes, since it utilizes NXT AE
So the worst case is:
all the supertraders forget how to trade and lose the entire bankroll, even though they are closely monitored and only the traders with the best track records are getting their bankrolls increased (the laggards get their bankroll decreased)
none of the assets are making any revenues, ever
the BBR effect was just some onetime lucky thing and all future SuperNET investments just blowup and become worthless immediately
After the first month of this worst case with 10% lost by the supertraders and 10% lost by the new coins and the assets all being worthless and certainly no ad revenue from the clicks, because we are assuming there is never any software that will ever work.
let us ignore any effects from the bonusing as that is balanced by the overall. Meaning for every dollar one person is getting below book (liquidation value) someone is paying a premium. I am estimating a +/- 12% range on this, so it is meaningful, but we are talking about the utter total failure of SuperNET in this fantasy scenario.
a) -10% from the horrible traders
b) -10% from the bad investments
c) -10% from both NXT and is going to 1 satoshi (might as well explore this worst case)
d) -10% from all my assets that I am putting in (we are also assuming all my assets that have on average more than doubled also get vaporized)
If this happened, I will personally vote to liquidate the SuperNET and so will 90% majority and everyone will get 60% back from the BTC that is still untouched.
now I just cant see this as any realistic scenario, we might as well postulate BTC goes back to $1
So let us say the supertraders arent so good and we get -3%, the investments are really not gaining is a seeming floor, but OK let us say altcoins are crashing for some reason, so we lose another 3% (30% altcoins drop). Do we really think NXT is dropping more than 50% from here? let us assume that NXT is pretty solid as it is near some low price but it could lose some of course, let us say it loses 20%, so this is -2%. Now some have said all NXT assets are worthless, so lets go with that, -10% as all NXT assets are worthless.
Now we are looking at a -18% scenario. Not great, but not the biggest disaster
So this is a good template. If you are thinking about it, fill in the blanks for what you feel is a realistic scenario:
a) supertraders overseen by myself and whale, I tripled sharkfund0 which was medium sized 1500 BTC intial funding. whale has nearly quadrupled a small million NXT portfolio in a month.
b) new coins along the lines of BBR, but of course cant expect such a pop each time
c) future of NXT as it is finally objectively looked at by a larger community after almost a year of being ignored
d) the performance of my assets, you can see on secureae.com:
InstantDEX ~40NXT from starting trades of 15 NXT
https://trade.secureae.com/#15344649963748848799NXTprivacy ~30NXT from 10 NXT
https://trade.secureae.com/#17911762572811467637sharkfund0 ~30000 NXT from 10000 NXT
https://trade.secureae.com/#3006420581923704757cryptocard (SuperNET card) ~20 NXT from initial price of < 2 NXT
https://trade.secureae.com/#7110939398145553585 (yes 10x in 1 month)
NXTcoinsco (Tradebots) ~20 from initial price of 10 NXT
https://trade.secureae.com/#17571711292785902558Privatebet 20 NXT, still initial price offered
https://trade.secureae.com/#17083334802666450484coinomat ~4 from initial price of 2 NXT just started trading
https://trade.secureae.com/#7474435909229872610 (this is not mine but it is key part of SuperNET)
As you can see, I have some track records that is not so bad. The net gain is over 125 million NXT for my assets in some 3 to 4 months.
For completeness, here are the other assets that are trading
NXTventure ~30 NXT from initial price of 10 NXT
https://trade.secureae.com/#16212446818542881180jl777hodl (JLH) ~2NXT from initial 1NXT
https://trade.secureae.com/#6932037131189568014 MGW (multigateway) ~9 NXT from initial 2.5 NXT
https://trade.secureae.com/#10524562908394749924 (I gave away about half this asset to NXT community peoples)
NXTautodac 0NXT* from initial 10 NXT
https://trade.secureae.com/#14347250558295845059(*) yes I have one asset that blew up due to factors out of my control. When it became clear the right thing wasnt being done, I provided makegood swaps of NXTautodac for JLH at a marketrate swap. I had no obligation to do this and some criticized me for bailing out the investors, but I felt it was my responsibility to make the people that trusted me to at least have something. At the time the JLH was 1 NXT, so all the holders of NXTautodac ended up doubling their market price via the JLH doubling, which is surely better than having a total loss, as i think even people that bought at ATH were able to come close to breaking even,
I cannot promise any guarantee of SuperNET doubling or tripling like 7 of the 10 have. My track record is just the facts about what has happened and SuperNET is a unique thing. I feel it is my best creation and it is costing the book value. Other than sharkfund0, I never priced any asset so low before, usually I am selling operating assets at 3x to 5x book value, so the SuperNET is combing these two types, it is a unique thing and I want to do my best to protect the capital.
Your assessment for the above four is the book value or the liquidation value. Now usually when something is trading at liquidation value, it means it is having no future. some sort of premium is normal for the book value if there is hope for a future as the proper price is the market's estimate for the lifetime future cashflows discounted to present value.
I hope this helps with your risk analysis. this is very good homeworks and highly recommended to do for anything you are putting your money in. Make sure the worst case is something you are ok with, then make some expected cases and see if there an acceptable balance at the very least. Ideally, we are wanting it unbalanced on the gain side.
James
#### the following is just my personal speculations in a single block of text so the lazy readers are not reading it. ####
P.S. to answer the unasked question, what do I think the market trading price do when the initial funding is over. I will be working to increase the NAV, but being the giant thing that it is, it will take some time for the NAV to start growing. Now the supertraders could start making a few percents per month (or even per week), but assuming some reasonable returns and compounding, the supertraders are the initial booster rockets to get the NAV growing. Then I am releasing the Teleport, InstantDEX, Tradebots, SuperNET card, Privatebet one after the other. At some point the market realizes I am not only able to blabber blabber and write a bunch of C code, that it actually works and so at some point the tech risk becomes smaller and smaller. But until we are growing the userbase past 100,000+ and having all the revenue producing assets in place, the NAV is not jumping. In any case all this revenue is recirculating into the coin communities and at least half is coming out as a dividend. So now the coins are getting more users, more investements and the 10% to 20% invested is starting get some meaningful growings. Can NAV grow by 50% by yearend? If the high end of the funds are coming in, probably not. On the smaller end, then I am not so surprised by this result. Now when the revenues are starting to grow, this creates the first crypto of any scale to have an actually future cashflow that is not zero! So, the usual PE ratios and normal business valuations become possible. Now we have to remember that the NAV is hopefully growing, maybe very slowly, but in many realistic scenarios NAV of 110% to 135% of initial funds are not unreasonable and then there is this possible future stream, what PE is to be used? Whatever it is there will be an implicit PE ratio based on market price and also a book value multiple. These are fundamental financial analysis things and probably totally foreign to most crypto investors. I aim to make it standard. I expect SuperNET to be slowly gaining NAV, new coins, userbase, new techs, more monetizations, etc. Nothing is risk free. However, some things are having some safety net and some have no safety net all the way to 0.00000000. So the answer to what the speculators will place this possible future value for SuperNET. The answer is
