KanoPool since 2014 🐈 - PPLNS and Solo 0.5% fee - Worldwide - 2435 blocks

[Mikestang]

At some point don't we have to cut our losses and simply assume that there's something wrong with the pool and bail? I've already shutdown my less efficient miners because of this bad luck.

I'd hate to lose my shares that I've built up during this time but I simply can't run my gear with no revenue incoming. I hate to think that I can't support small pools but the reality is... I can't justify (under any circumstances) an entire week without finding a block. 

I would agree with your assessment of shutting down less efficient miners during a difficult block, but don't get crazy and assume that there's something wrong with the pool just because it's stuck on a bad luck block.  Look at the Block Statistics on the web page.  The last 10 blocks were super lucky!  The pendulum swings both ways, and the history of this pool shows that there are more good luck block than bad luck.

It's a conundrum that many people don't like small pools, but if more people supported this pool then it wouldn't be "small".

You post nonsense for the simple and selfish persuits of your signature campaign. On a good day I'd call that signature campaign trolling, but I'd be feeding the troll in you to troll even more. I call you what I perceive you to be from your posts, and you are a pathetic troll (and so what if I can't quote more than one post, if at all ... it's a troll's toolkit).

Wow, how original - just because I have a paid signature everything I post must be spam, right?  Welcome to my ignore list.

[1714784710]

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[1714784710]

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[jonnybravo0311]

I'm always amazed at how biased people's understanding truly is.  A pool goes for a week without finding a block and things must be wrong with the pool itself.  Yet, when the pool finds many more blocks than it should, nobody's yelling that something is wrong with the pool.

[AJRGale]

Sadly, I just had a SP20 die after a power outage, so that's 1.45T less from here 

I'm working on it now, but it doesn't look promising.  I can get it to SD boot, but only inside an air conditioned environment.  As soon as I put it next to the other miners (~30C) it will not boot.

That sucks.  Try clocking it lower.  It may work.

I had an ASIC I had to disable on a SP20E recently. Lots of issues cropping up with these little miners lately. So much for the  "professional" and "carrier grade" designations...

they are all about a year old now, for something pumping at 100% most of the time, i expect it to go pop, laptops, even business class don't last any more then 1.5 years.

if you were close to my shop, i'd ask to look at it and maybe clean the heatsinks and reseat them, see if that would help..

I'm always amazed at how biased people's understanding truly is.  A pool goes for a week without finding a block and things must be wrong with the pool itself.  Yet, when the pool finds many more blocks than it should, nobody's yelling that something is wrong with the pool.

does people yell at a car that takes them to work? or do they yell at them when the battery goes flat when they try and start it?
people celebrate when things go right and work good, and anger when it doesn't.

none the less, its all about trying to find a usable pattern in a world of chaotic noise. just to find a nonce in a doubled sha256 "block" once its been found and confirmed, new block gets generated..

Hell, you could do this calculation on pen&paper if you want, 0.05hashes/minute if you're good at math.

[SergES]

Help come in...2 Ths. Enough to quarrel.

[PPOC]

Help come in...2 Ths. Enough to quarrel.

Better break it now, 2.4 Ph just came in to help kill this 550% block. Yesterday Slush had a 900%+ block. Hope we don't need to go that high

[Antuam]

Help come in...2 Ths. Enough to quarrel.

Better break it now, 2.4 Ph just came in to help kill this 550% block. Yesterday Slush had a 900%+ block. Hope we don't need to go that high

Hi guys.
Now, We are mining with 5.3Phash 

Have a good day and better luck 
Antuam

[xstr8guy]

I'm always amazed at how biased people's understanding truly is.  A pool goes for a week without finding a block and things must be wrong with the pool itself.  Yet, when the pool finds many more blocks than it should, nobody's yelling that something is wrong with the pool.

I'm not some noob that doesn't understand how luck affects a mining pool. I've been mining for 3 years and have had all kinds of experiences, good and bad. I went through the whole block stealing episode on BTCguild. But this is so extremely bad, it's quite alarming. I can't help but feel that there is something wrong.

[kano]

I'm always amazed at how biased people's understanding truly is.  A pool goes for a week without finding a block and things must be wrong with the pool itself.  Yet, when the pool finds many more blocks than it should, nobody's yelling that something is wrong with the pool.

I'm not some noob that doesn't understand how luck affects a mining pool. I've been mining for 3 years and have had all kinds of experiences, good and bad. I went through the whole block stealing episode on BTCguild. But this is so extremely bad, it's quite alarming. I can't help but feel that there is something wrong.

It's not extremely bad at all.

The CDF values for different Diff% are:

Code:

 0.86466471676339  200.00%
 0.95021293163214  300.00%
 0.98168436111127  400.00%
 0.99326205300091  500.00%
 0.99752124782333  600.00%
 0.99908811803445  700.00%
 0.9996645373721   800.00%
 0.99987659019591  900.00%

Simple statistics.

So for example, it is expected on average for 1 in just under 1,001 blocks to be more than 700%
i.e. some time in the near or distant future, it is not at all unexpected to get a block over 700%

That's the same on every pool on the planet (but of course it ignores the factors that can make it worse e.g. orphans and slow pools)

But also note the even more important fact regarding that - sample vs population.
If you only have a small sample of blocks you can't even expect those numbers to be close.
Remember that the bitcoin network itself uses 2016 blocks to determine, inaccurately, the current network performance, so you need a lot of blocks before you can make any reasonable statistical judgements.

But when the statistics show better than the expected average, it's a bit over the top to be calling it "extremely bad" ...

[pekatete]

It's not extremely bad at all.

The CDF values for different Diff% are:

Code:

 0.86466471676339  200.00%
 0.95021293163214  300.00%
 0.98168436111127  400.00%
 0.99326205300091  500.00%
 0.99752124782333  600.00%
 0.99908811803445  700.00%
 0.9996645373721   800.00%
 0.99987659019591  900.00%

Simple statistics.

So for example, it is expected on average for 1 in just under 1,001 blocks to be more than 700%
i.e. some time in the near or distant future, it is not at all unexpected to get a block over 700%

The wonders of statistics .... can achieve and fail to deliver granularity in the same breath. Should have been called guessitics.

But also note the even more important fact regarding that - sample vs population.
If you only have a small sample of blocks you can't even expect those numbers to be close.
Remember that the bitcoin network itself uses 2016 blocks to determine, inaccurately, the current network performance, so you need a lot of blocks before you can make any reasonable statistical judgements.

I actually believed the minimum sample size required to have at least 95% confidence in the result is 2000. (Off my fading memory, doubling that sample size to 4000 would NOT get you into 96% confidence irrespective of the population size....).

[WBF1]

A little different way of looking at this for all the chicken littles out there.

We're currently at 636% or 6.36x expected amount of work to solve this block. But let's look backwards at recent history.

- the last block was 26%, or approximately .25x or 1/4 of expected work to solve that block

- 2 of the last 7 blocks were around 14% or approximately 1/7 of expected work to solve those blocks

- the last 10 blocks were average 46% or approximately 1/2 of expected work to solve the blocks on average... In other words over the last 10 blocks we've averaged double the amount of btc mined for the amount of work done.

I've linked organofconti's post about luck several times here, but one of the most important things pointed out there is that bad luck lasts longer because work correlates directly with time at similar hashrates.

Now stick with me here for some theoretical analysis.

"Work done" is roughly a function of time and hashrate. If you were to have time fixed and allow the other variables to change the complaints would be about high hashrates but stretches of bad luck as defined by high required hashrates to solve blocks.

So what does longer time or more hashrate boil down to? More cost.

The way this all works though, the variable with the highest delta is time. When the current block is at 6x difficulty, it's not because we've all bought 6x more hardware or rented 6x more hashrate, otherwise pool hashrate would be way higher. Likewise though when blocks were at 1/7 difficulty, its not because we turned off 6/7 worth of our hardware.

So this is a long winded explanation of why bad luck seems to last much longer than good luck. There's no way around variance. And unless people want to buy a ton more hashrate and point it here, our main perception of bad luck will remain in the form of time.

Also keep in mind if we solve this block right now and proceed to hit a couple of 15-25% blocks, we'll be right back on track. But the celebrations of good luck will be just as short lived as the time spent mining the good luck blocks.

[thedreamer]

Ahh finally. 

[Antuam]

Ahh finally. 

I am happy  the luck star again 

Have a good weekend.
Antuam.

[Dmc123dmc]

Get in there!!!

[PPOC]

Ahh finally. 

666.67% wow, so thats the new records block for this pool.nice we have 5Ph for a while to get over this block. Now 12 more under 100%

[BlInK311]

HAHAHAHA   of course its 666%.   why wouldn't it be.  WOOOHOOOO

[Mikestang]

Well obviously Kano fixed the pool code, right? 

Hopefully some/most/all of the hash that came to bust that block stays on this pool.

[Kexkey]

Finally, yayyy!!

LOL 666.67%... it's a sign.  It has to be a good sign!!

Thanks ALUZ!

[wcg]

I dont quite understand everything yet but do you get more than 0.12btc for mining for 7 days .i stuck it out on this pool just trying to understand the payments i had like 1,623.567 shares and i just now received a 0.12 btc reward i had 12 s5 miners running for this block thanks i know this is off topic.

[bgibso01]

For some reason I'm seeing a couple of my S5 units hosted by Lee's Group failing over to another pool.  Anyone else experiencing problems?

[sjc1490]

For some reason I'm seeing a couple of my S5 units hosted by Lee's Group failing over to another pool.  Anyone else experiencing problems?

Yes, yesterday and today on mine.