KanoPool since 2014 🐈 - PPLNS and Solo 0.5% fee - Worldwide - 2438 blocks

[wavelengthsf]

Just for fun, I pointed all my other miners here too -only a couple dozen TH, but I hope it brings some luck (and I love its lower fees than other pools.)

[gnu123]

I remember some years ago when slush pool had a several month long streak with really bad luck, but as i remember it they found out it was some bug cousing it
.


This is maybe just bad luck but how big is the chance of getting 2 devilblocks so close to each other ? Or should I see it as every new block is a new block and what happened before doesnt matter at all ?

[gnu123]

I remember some years ago when slush pool had a several month long streak with really bad luck, but as i remember it they found out it was some bug cousing it
.


This is maybe just bad luck but how big is the chance of getting 2 devilblocks so close to each other ? Or should I see it as every new block is a new block and what happened before doesnt matter at all ?

The first block was 1 in 2000

The second block is About 1 in 2000

But they were not back to back which would be a 1 in 4,000,000 chance.

My math skills to determine. The chance of two .9996 cdf blocks out of four are not up to the task.

The fact that we had 2 good blocks between 2 devilblocks must change the "1 in 4000000" chance, but that´s above my pay-grade.

[realhayesreal]

Last chicken going to chopping block. The rooster! I’m all in.

[kano]

I remember some years ago when slush pool had a several month long streak with really bad luck, but as i remember it they found out it was some bug cousing it
.


This is maybe just bad luck but how big is the chance of getting 2 devilblocks so close to each other ? Or should I see it as every new block is a new block and what happened before doesnt matter at all ?

The first block was 1 in 2000

The second block is About 1 in 2000

But they were not back to back which would be a 1 in 4,000,000 chance.

My math skills to determine. The chance of two .9996 cdf blocks out of four are not up to the task.

The fact that we had 2 good blocks between 2 devilblocks must change the "1 in 4000000" chance, but that´s above my pay-grade.

Yeah the problem is that you can't actually use the result of that calculation.
Statistics requires impartiality.

Selecting a range of data, specifically based on the results: the first and last being the worst possible values, invalidates the statistical analysis.

As you will see on the web site, there is no CDF[Erl] of data that defines a set of data based on the results of that data, since that isn't valid.
The boundaries are all unrelated to the results -> months, or a specific number of blocks.

[padrinogtr]

I remember some years ago when slush pool had a several month long streak with really bad luck, but as i remember it they found out it was some bug cousing it
.

Yep. It was genesis mining running equipment that couldn't find blocks. After months of us all complaining about it and hearing nothing from slush, they finally kind sorta announced the problem and let them keep all the coin they stole. A GIANT F*** YOU to all the miners who had been loyal for years. That's when I found this pool.

Folks this happens every time there is a period of bad luck. Everybody comes out with their conspiracy theories. Yet nobody complains when we have months of phenomenal luck like last February and April.

At least here, you know that Kano is on it and provides you with regular updates. And if he does find something wrong, he tells it like it is no matter what the problem was.

definitely a plus
this is why i like this pool you actually got some to talk to and answer your questions
specilly when you are a noob

[goose1072]

I have also moved my miners for the time being, would love to return when everything is back to normal.
I can honestly say the last 2 months have been very steep roller coasters.
This problem didn't exist 3-4 months ago... has to be some bug somewhere!

SOME ONE GET THAT BUG SPRAY!!!! LETS GET THIS BUG OUT OF HERE!

[kano]

Meanwhile, I've requested the big rentals to stop mining for the time being so the hash rate is back down to mostly just direct hardware now.

[xuy]

I think your math is correct. Though probability has no memory, the chance of having 2 of 1 in 2000 so closely (within 4) is 1 out of million.
The question is with increased hash rate this pool gets more bad luck and is supposed to be less variance.
It will be great if we can find the issue. Otherwise we can just blame bad luck.

I remember some years ago when slush pool had a several month long streak with really bad luck, but as i remember it they found out it was some bug cousing it
.


This is maybe just bad luck but how big is the chance of getting 2 devilblocks so close to each other ? Or should I see it as every new block is a new block and what happened before doesnt matter at all ?

The first block was 1 in 2000

The second block is About 1 in 2000

But they were not back to back which would be a 1 in 4,000,000 chance.

My math skills to determine. The chance of two .9996 cdf blocks out of four are not up to the task.

[xxcsu]

close to 100TH/s is gone ... I hope everything going back to normal
We definitely need some blocks

[Sosoft]

That was a fast drop down in hash rate.

[firetreeactual]

I remember some years ago when slush pool had a several month long streak with really bad luck, but as i remember it they found out it was some bug cousing it
.


This is maybe just bad luck but how big is the chance of getting 2 devilblocks so close to each other ? Or should I see it as every new block is a new block and what happened before doesnt matter at all ?

The first block was 1 in 2000

The second block is About 1 in 2000

But they were not back to back which would be a 1 in 4,000,000 chance.

My math skills to determine. The chance of two .9996 cdf blocks out of four are not up to the task.

The fact that we had 2 good blocks between 2 devilblocks must change the "1 in 4000000" chance, but that´s above my pay-grade.

Yeah the problem is that you can't actually use the result of that calculation.
Statistics requires impartiality.

Selecting a range of data, specifically based on the results: the first and last being the worst possible values, invalidates the statistical analysis.

As you will see on the web site, there is no CDF[Erl] of data that defines a set of data based on the results of that data, since that isn't valid.
The boundaries are all unrelated to the results -> months, or a specific number of blocks.

I think I must have failed around 12% of my graduate students in Research Methods because they couldn't get their heads around that. 

[VRobb]

I taught Stat at Cal Poly during my university days, and indeed you get LOTS of false conclusions on these boards based on emotion instead of mathematical rigor.  Funny at first, then tiring, then irritating - especially when coming from longtime members who should know better...  
I'd hate to know how high kanosan's aggrivation level gets sometimes with all the noob du jours chiming in during a run of bad luck!  

[gnu123]

I remember some years ago when slush pool had a several month long streak with really bad luck, but as i remember it they found out it was some bug cousing it
.


This is maybe just bad luck but how big is the chance of getting 2 devilblocks so close to each other ? Or should I see it as every new block is a new block and what happened before doesnt matter at all ?

The first block was 1 in 2000

The second block is About 1 in 2000

But they were not back to back which would be a 1 in 4,000,000 chance.

My math skills to determine. The chance of two .9996 cdf blocks out of four are not up to the task.

The fact that we had 2 good blocks between 2 devilblocks must change the "1 in 4000000" chance, but that´s above my pay-grade.

Yeah the problem is that you can't actually use the result of that calculation.
Statistics requires impartiality.

Selecting a range of data, specifically based on the results: the first and last being the worst possible values, invalidates the statistical analysis.

As you will see on the web site, there is no CDF[Erl] of data that defines a set of data based on the results of that data, since that isn't valid.
The boundaries are all unrelated to the results -> months, or a specific number of blocks.

Ah ok. Then i understand, more.

[padrinogtr]

I taught Stat at Cal Poly during my university days, and indeed you get LOTS of false conclusions on these boards based on emotion instead of mathematical rigor.  Funny at first, then tiring, then irritating - especially when coming from longtime members who should know better...  
I'd hate to know how high kanosan's aggrivation level gets sometimes with all the noob du jours chiming in during a run of bad luck!  

give us a break
we like to learn also

[Entropy-uc]

I taught Stat at Cal Poly during my university days, and indeed you get LOTS of false conclusions on these boards based on emotion instead of mathematical rigor.  Funny at first, then tiring, then irritating - especially when coming from longtime members who should know better...  
I'd hate to know how high kanosan's aggrivation level gets sometimes with all the noob du jours chiming in during a run of bad luck!  

It's a nice level of rigor to hold in a pristine environment.  However, in the presence of enemy action there are no coincidences.  You wouldn't last long as an officer.

Consider that at current prices $3.6 billion dollar of bitcoin will be mined. 1% of that is $36 million.  Do you think people would fight tooth and nail over 36 million dollars?  It simply cannot be assumed that you are not exposed to people with malicious intent.  By the time you can confidently say using statistics that something is wrong the game will be over.  This is the real reason no sane pool operator runs PPS.

That said, I expect Kano is just having a run of shitty luck.  In his shoes I would be considering what an enemy might be doing, and how to detect it just in case.

[joel coin]

I taught Stat at Cal Poly during my university days, and indeed you get LOTS of false conclusions on these boards based on emotion instead of mathematical rigor.  Funny at first, then tiring, then irritating - especially when coming from longtime members who should know better...  
I'd hate to know how high kanosan's aggrivation level gets sometimes with all the noob du jours chiming in during a run of bad luck!  

give us a break
we like to learn also

I second @padrinogtr's sentiment -- with all due respect @VRobb, everyone used to be a noob at some point (including you and Kano), until they weren't.  I won't speculate on how high Kano's aggravation level gets with noobs 'chiming' in the forum, but I will say that without noobs mining in the pool, this pool wouldn't grow and would most likely be forgotten by the ever increasing level of difficulty as the network grows, causing the runs of bad luck to become longer and more frequent.  

You don't need statistics to understand that

[kano]

I taught Stat at Cal Poly during my university days, and indeed you get LOTS of false conclusions on these boards based on emotion instead of mathematical rigor.  Funny at first, then tiring, then irritating - especially when coming from longtime members who should know better...  
I'd hate to know how high kanosan's aggrivation level gets sometimes with all the noob du jours chiming in during a run of bad luck!  

It's a nice level of rigor to hold in a pristine environment.  However, in the presence of enemy action there are no coincidences.  You wouldn't last long as an officer.

Consider that at current prices $3.6 billion dollar of bitcoin will be mined. 1% of that is $36 million.  Do you think people would fight tooth and nail over 36 million dollars?  It simply cannot be assumed that you are not exposed to people with malicious intent.  By the time you can confidently say using statistics that something is wrong the game will be over.  This is the real reason no sane pool operator runs PPS.

That said, I expect Kano is just having a run of shitty luck.  In his shoes I would be considering what an enemy might be doing, and how to detect it just in case.

Which is something I've been doing since the pool started over 3 years ago

There are limits to a sizeable sample of stats that say there is a problem, but we aren't at those limits yet.
But yes I'm already also checking things you can't check at the pool ... since I have contact with many of the large miners.

[NomadGroup]

That was a fast drop down in hash rate.

Yes Kano just mentioned that he requested the rentals to stop mining for us, so it is all in hour hands now! .  I should add a couple of 14 th s9’s in a couple of days ( hope that helps a little ) but will most likely have to sacrifice couple of s7’s..  really don’t want to pull them off but the local power transformer will probably blow up if I add more lol.    

Mine on guys!  

[aessedai]

I taught Stat at Cal Poly during my university days, and indeed you get LOTS of false conclusions on these boards based on emotion instead of mathematical rigor.  Funny at first, then tiring, then irritating - especially when coming from longtime members who should know better...  
I'd hate to know how high kanosan's aggrivation level gets sometimes with all the noob du jours chiming in during a run of bad luck!  

give us a break
we like to learn also

I second @padrinogtr's sentiment -- with all due respect @VRobb, everyone used to be a noob at some point (including you and Kano), until they weren't.  I won't speculate on how high Kano's aggravation level gets with noobs 'chiming' in the forum, but I will say that without noobs mining in the pool, this pool wouldn't grow and would most likely be forgotten by the ever increasing level of difficulty as the network grows, causing the runs of bad luck to become longer and more frequent.  

You don't need statistics to understand that

I am a noob to this pool, having joined about a month ago, just in time to have the worst luck I have ever seen in my not so noobish 3.5 years of mining.