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Author Topic: [prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 {<-oops!} months from now (2017 Update!)  (Read 69399 times)
Biodom
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October 10, 2014, 08:08:04 PM
 #241

Oh great, now this looks more and more like a pyramid scheme every time some one brings out this kind of data!!

like this one?
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/06/CS%20wealth%207.jpg


Exactly! Now make one look for bitcoin & you will notice we are not only alllllllllllllllll the way at the bottom but when the "bitcoin rich" combine wallets you notice they are holding all the chips & we are fighting for scraps... Why support something that is about to become VERY centralized??? just wondering... why???  Huh

My point was that $$ wealth pyramid has almost exactly the same features as current bitcoin wealth pyramid.
Unequal wealth distribution is common. Redistribution would occur slowly through the same mechanisms as now: people with more productivity/ingenuity will able to earn more.
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October 10, 2014, 09:16:18 PM
 #242

Oh great, now this looks more and more like a pyramid scheme every time some one brings out this kind of data!!

like this one?
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/06/CS%20wealth%207.jpg


Exactly! Now make one look for bitcoin & you will notice we are not only alllllllllllllllll the way at the bottom but when the "bitcoin rich" combine wallets you notice they are holding all the chips & we are fighting for scraps... Why support something that is about to become VERY centralized??? just wondering... why???  Huh

My point was that $$ wealth pyramid has almost exactly the same features as current bitcoin wealth pyramid.
Unequal wealth distribution is common. Redistribution would occur slowly through the same mechanisms as now: people with more productivity/ingenuity will able to earn more.

I understand that but you guys are talking about redistribution form one hoarder to another... Trust me, it's doing nothing for this community! Even if bitcoin was fairly distributed over the entire world (impossible) what value would that be giving us??? We need to be able to buy bread, food, pay rent, & get paid in bitcoin or else ... ... ...
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October 10, 2014, 09:16:55 PM
 #243

Good lord that is a wall of text. Maybe try to condense your post.

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October 10, 2014, 09:35:28 PM
Last edit: October 10, 2014, 11:25:57 PM by Biodom
 #244

I understand that but you guys are talking about redistribution form one hoarder to another... Trust me, it's doing nothing for this community! Even if bitcoin was fairly distributed over the entire world (impossible) what value would that be giving us??? We need to be able to buy bread, food, pay rent, & get paid in bitcoin or else ... ...

apart from emotion, I don't know what you are trying to convey?
picture this:

there will be 21 trillion XBT or 2.1 quadrillion satoshi(s) once distribution is complete (a bit more than half of this now).
mentally replace all (or nontrivial % of each) $$, euro, yen, yuan in the world with XBT.
What do you gain: incredible increase in payment fluidity and monetary velocity plus security plus other advances (smart contracts, etc.).
what do you lose: almost nothing

this is point B, when you can get paid in XBT, will save (at least some) in XBT, which will be at least as stable as any currency is today.
You would want more XBT, and you will earn it by working or investing.
Now, we are at point A.
Getting from point A to point B is where the difficulty lies.
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November 12, 2014, 10:05:20 PM
 #245

fap fap fap~

"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto
*my posts are not investment advice*
Biodom
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November 12, 2014, 10:15:07 PM
 #246

fap fap fap~

^^^^ the results of a puny $100 surge  Grin.
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November 12, 2014, 10:23:31 PM
 #247

fap fap fap~

^^^^ the results of a puny $100 surge  Grin.
The next real spike will find many Bitcoiners naked save for a Bitcoin flag, running through the streets and climbing up national monuments. (Along with the above.)

HODLing for the longest time. Skippin fast right around the moon. On a rocketship straight to mars.
Up, up and away with my beautiful, my beautiful Bitcoin~
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November 12, 2014, 10:24:57 PM
 #248

fap fap fap~

^^^^ the results of a puny $100 surge  Grin.

Imagine a $10,000 leap  Grin

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DeepOnion
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November 12, 2014, 10:30:39 PM
 #249

fap fap fap~

sigh

*unzips*

fap fap fap

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November 12, 2014, 10:41:24 PM
 #250

I understand that but you guys are talking about redistribution form one hoarder to another... Trust me, it's doing nothing for this community! Even if bitcoin was fairly distributed over the entire world (impossible) what value would that be giving us??? We need to be able to buy bread, food, pay rent, & get paid in bitcoin or else ... ...

apart from emotion, I don't know what you are trying to convey?
picture this:

there will be 21 trillion XBT or 2.1 quadrillion satoshi(s) once distribution is complete (a bit more than half of this now).
mentally replace all (or nontrivial % of each) $$, euro, yen, yuan in the world with XBT.
What do you gain: incredible increase in payment fluidity and monetary velocity plus security plus other advances (smart contracts, etc.).
what do you lose: almost nothing

this is point B, when you can get paid in XBT, will save (at least some) in XBT, which will be at least as stable as any currency is today.
You would want more XBT, and you will earn it by working or investing.
Now, we are at point A.
Getting from point A to point B is where the difficulty lies.

Counterparty is recreating Ethereum’s smart contract platform on Bitcoin (currently on testnet). The smart contracts you mentioned will soon be possible on the Bitcon blockchain.

http://counterparty.io/news/counterparty-recreates-ethereums-smart-contract-platform-on-bitcoin/
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November 12, 2014, 11:12:54 PM
 #251

fap fap fap~

^^^^ the results of a puny $100 surge  Grin.

What if I was leveraged x10 all in for $100k? huh? huh?


...


ok, I wasn't Smiley

"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto
*my posts are not investment advice*
Valerian77
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November 13, 2014, 08:35:28 AM
 #252


What if I was leveraged x10 all in for $100k? huh? huh?


Money is a devil  Wink
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November 15, 2014, 07:34:02 PM
 #253

The price now is about right, in my opinion.  And maybe it will keep appreciating at something like an order of magnitude per year for a while.  I can't see a case for dramatic volatility increase.
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November 15, 2014, 08:15:59 PM
 #254

The price now is about right, in my opinion.  And maybe it will keep appreciating at something like an order of magnitude per year for a while.  I can't see a case for dramatic volatility increase.
The reason is this: Most people - the vast, vast majority - are stupid and rightly lack confidence in their own abilities. It is too dangerous to personally secure your coins for the average person. Once it becomes possible to buy in without the risk of losing your money through negligence or hardware error, such as Circle or the ETF or something of that nature, it will become possible for far more people to hop on the wagon than currently.

Look inside yourself, and you will see that you are the bubble.
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November 15, 2014, 08:24:36 PM
 #255

The price now is about right, in my opinion.  And maybe it will keep appreciating at something like an order of magnitude per year for a while.  I can't see a case for dramatic volatility increase.
The reason is this: Most people - the vast, vast majority - are stupid and rightly lack confidence in their own abilities. It is too dangerous to personally secure your coins for the average person. Once it becomes possible to buy in without the risk of losing your money through negligence or hardware error, such as Circle or the ETF or something of that nature, it will become possible for far more people to hop on the wagon than currently.

I see it more as an application of the 100th monkey effect

Quote
The hundredth monkey effect is a studied phenomenon[1] in which a new behavior or idea is claimed to spread rapidly by unexplained means from one group to all related groups once a critical number of members of one group exhibit the new behavior or acknowledge the new idea.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hundredth_monkey_effect

The notion of tipping point as described by Malcom Gladwell also applies.

Finally, from an economic standpoint, the prospect of currency speculative attacks is a very likely scenario http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/speculative-attack/

Of course at the bottom of all of this is the inherent greed in humans. If it continues appreciating an order of magnitude per year for only one or two more year then the "trend" will be too strong for even the most common man to ignore.

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
Biodom
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November 15, 2014, 09:27:40 PM
 #256

The price now is about right, in my opinion.  And maybe it will keep appreciating at something like an order of magnitude per year for a while.  I can't see a case for dramatic volatility increase.
The reason is this: Most people - the vast, vast majority - are stupid and rightly lack confidence in their own abilities. It is too dangerous to personally secure your coins for the average person. Once it becomes possible to buy in without the risk of losing your money through negligence or hardware error, such as Circle or the ETF or something of that nature, it will become possible for far more people to hop on the wagon than currently.

I see it more as an application of the 100th monkey effect

Quote
The hundredth monkey effect is a studied phenomenon[1] in which a new behavior or idea is claimed to spread rapidly by unexplained means from one group to all related groups once a critical number of members of one group exhibit the new behavior or acknowledge the new idea.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hundredth_monkey_effect

The notion of tipping point as described by Malcom Gladwell also applies.

Finally, from an economic standpoint, the prospect of currency speculative attacks is a very likely scenario http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/speculative-attack/

Of course at the bottom of all of this is the inherent greed in humans. If it continues appreciating an order of magnitude per year for only one or two more year then the "trend" will be too strong for even the most common man to ignore.

This explains why it is not appreciating this year...or not?
brg444
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November 15, 2014, 10:00:42 PM
 #257

The price now is about right, in my opinion.  And maybe it will keep appreciating at something like an order of magnitude per year for a while.  I can't see a case for dramatic volatility increase.
The reason is this: Most people - the vast, vast majority - are stupid and rightly lack confidence in their own abilities. It is too dangerous to personally secure your coins for the average person. Once it becomes possible to buy in without the risk of losing your money through negligence or hardware error, such as Circle or the ETF or something of that nature, it will become possible for far more people to hop on the wagon than currently.

I see it more as an application of the 100th monkey effect

Quote
The hundredth monkey effect is a studied phenomenon[1] in which a new behavior or idea is claimed to spread rapidly by unexplained means from one group to all related groups once a critical number of members of one group exhibit the new behavior or acknowledge the new idea.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hundredth_monkey_effect

The notion of tipping point as described by Malcom Gladwell also applies.

Finally, from an economic standpoint, the prospect of currency speculative attacks is a very likely scenario http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/speculative-attack/

Of course at the bottom of all of this is the inherent greed in humans. If it continues appreciating an order of magnitude per year for only one or two more year then the "trend" will be too strong for even the most common man to ignore.

This explains why it is not appreciating this year...or not?

That is simply because of the hype cycle and bunch of other dynamics related to mining and what not. Perfectly normal.

We are still at the beginning of the adoption s-curve. The point where we go vertical is what I am referring to.

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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November 15, 2014, 10:21:43 PM
 #258

I will just let it drop to 250 again, then buy all the coins, to hold them till 560k.

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November 15, 2014, 11:47:25 PM
 #259

The price now is about right, in my opinion.  And maybe it will keep appreciating at something like an order of magnitude per year for a while.  I can't see a case for dramatic volatility increase.
The reason is this: Most people - the vast, vast majority - are stupid and rightly lack confidence in their own abilities. It is too dangerous to personally secure your coins for the average person. Once it becomes possible to buy in without the risk of losing your money through negligence or hardware error, such as Circle or the ETF or something of that nature, it will become possible for far more people to hop on the wagon than currently.
In my opinion and at least for Americans, the possibility to buy coins and have them safely stored is already a given. Coinbase has been around for at least a year and allows people to attach their checking account to their wallet and purchase whatever they want w/i reason. Furthermore, the 2FA is pretty much a sure thing in terms of security these days so there really are no excuses for the average folk to be afraid outside of not having the need or enticement to want BTC to begin with. The next rally will spark interest across the globe and hopefully the infrastructure is there to get people to actually use the coin to buy things on discount to fulfill the currency's basic attributes.
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November 16, 2014, 12:19:48 AM
 #260

Only 12 months left then. But I would be happy if the price went up to even $10k Smiley
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