[prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 {<-oops!} months from now (2017 Update!)

[Biodom]

It is getting exceedingly difficult to make/mine bitcoin

right now, to make 1 BTC in 3-4 mo you need to spend ~$900 on machine(s) and electricity if you are a homeminer (using two S3).
Since you spent $900, but got $373 in 3-4 mo, you are "in the hole" for 58% of your initial investment.
in the datacenter you can make 1.4BTC a month using a $3800 machine (spondoolies S-30) and use ~$300 in electricity (if you pay 0.13/kw)
In 3-4 mo you will make 3.5-3.7 BTC while spending ~$900. So, machine costs $3800, but you make $1380-900=$480 (total!) after electricity in 4 months from now.

It cannot work this way and it will not work. At these BTC prices bitcoin mining is OVER.
Nobody will mine bitcoin soon because it does not make any sense to do it, apart from small hobby mining.
Miners prepared a huge network, but almost nobody came so far.
That's why the prices are crashing, and "killing" miners as a result.

[1714326721]

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[1714326721]

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[Ibian]

It is getting exceedingly difficult to make/mine bitcoin

right now, to make 1 BTC in 3-4 mo you need to spend ~$900 on machine(s) and electricity if you are a homeminer (using two S3).
Since you spent $900, but got $373 in 3-4 mo, you are "in the hole" for 58% of your initial investment.
in the datacenter you can make 1.4BTC a month using a $3800 machine (spondoolies S-30) and use ~$300 in electricity (if you pay 0.13/kw)
In 3-4 mo you will make 3.5-3.7 BTC while spending ~$900. So, machine costs $3800, but you make $1380-900=$480 (total!) after electricity in 4 months from now.

It cannot work this way and it will not work. At these BTC prices bitcoin mining is OVER.
Nobody will mine bitcoin soon because it does not make any sense to do it, apart from small hobby mining.
Miners prepared a huge network, but almost nobody came so far.
That's why the prices are crashing, and "killing" miners as a result.

Sounds legit, but only the top miners really matter. What do the numbers look like for the most efficient hardware?

[Biodom]

It is getting exceedingly difficult to make/mine bitcoin

right now, to make 1 BTC in 3-4 mo you need to spend ~$900 on machine(s) and electricity if you are a homeminer (using two S3).
Since you spent $900, but got $373 in 3-4 mo, you are "in the hole" for 58% of your initial investment.
in the datacenter you can make 1.4BTC a month using a $3800 machine (spondoolies S-30) and use ~$300 in electricity (if you pay 0.13/kw)
In 3-4 mo you will make 3.5-3.7 BTC while spending ~$900. So, machine costs $3800, but you make $1380-900=$480 (total!) after electricity in 4 months from now.

It cannot work this way and it will not work. At these BTC prices bitcoin mining is OVER.
Nobody will mine bitcoin soon because it does not make any sense to do it, apart from small hobby mining.
Miners prepared a huge network, but almost nobody came so far.
That's why the prices are crashing, and "killing" miners as a result.

Sounds legit, but only the top miners really matter. What do the numbers look like for the most efficient hardware?

S3 and Sp-30 ARE few of the most efficient at 0.66-0.7w/GH
AM tube is less efficient, but a bit cheaper, but we are talking about 20-30% for tube vs S-3.

[Ibian]

It is getting exceedingly difficult to make/mine bitcoin

right now, to make 1 BTC in 3-4 mo you need to spend ~$900 on machine(s) and electricity if you are a homeminer (using two S3).
Since you spent $900, but got $373 in 3-4 mo, you are "in the hole" for 58% of your initial investment.
in the datacenter you can make 1.4BTC a month using a $3800 machine (spondoolies S-30) and use ~$300 in electricity (if you pay 0.13/kw)
In 3-4 mo you will make 3.5-3.7 BTC while spending ~$900. So, machine costs $3800, but you make $1380-900=$480 (total!) after electricity in 4 months from now.

It cannot work this way and it will not work. At these BTC prices bitcoin mining is OVER.
Nobody will mine bitcoin soon because it does not make any sense to do it, apart from small hobby mining.
Miners prepared a huge network, but almost nobody came so far.
That's why the prices are crashing, and "killing" miners as a result.

Sounds legit, but only the top miners really matter. What do the numbers look like for the most efficient hardware?

S3 and Sp-30 ARE few of the most efficient at 0.66-0.7w/GH
AM tube is less efficient, but a bit cheaper, but we are talking about 20-30% for tube vs S-3.

That's awesome. Probably can't go much lower then. At least not on mined coins alone.

[CMMPro]

I've been saying the same thing for a month....mining difficulty has to drop or prices have to come up.

With prices going down the hashrate has stagnated....look on bitcoinwisdom for yourself.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a drop in hashrate to rebalance this perverse situation...that to me would signal we are reaching the bottom.

[Velkro]

Sure yea, but now its worth 370$ and decreasing ;]

[BitChick]

Sure yea, but now its worth 370$ and decreasing ;]

So much can happen in 14 months.  With Bitcoin, even a week can bring some impressive changes.  Just hold and wait.

[exocytosis]

Just hold and wait.

Yeah, just hold and wait for single digit prices. Then panic sell. 

[BitChick]

Just hold and wait.

Yeah, just hold and wait for single digit prices. Then panic sell. 

Typically, many don't hold, then wait till prices rise and panic buy.  At least that has been my observation so far. 

[Phildo]

I've been saying the same thing for a month....mining difficulty has to drop or prices have to come up.

With prices going down the hashrate has stagnated....look on bitcoinwisdom for yourself.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a drop in hashrate to rebalance this perverse situation...that to me would signal we are reaching the bottom.

The mining insanity has screwed things up, and it's going to take a while for it to sort itself out.

Lots of the miners running right now should have never been made. If they weren't funded by preorders, the people making them would have run out of money an stopped making them because they wouldn't be able to sell them. They took the preorders, so they were able to sell miners that will never generate a profit.

people bought the preorders, so when they receive their miner that should never have been made, they are going to plug it in to try and get some sort of return on their investment. The money they spent on the miner is gone, it makes sense for them to mine until they can't pay for the electricity so they can make the best out of the crappy situation they are in. This makes the difficulty way higher than it should be.

The drop in price should get these people to unplug their machines and make the difficulty drop, but then we have the next disaster, cloud mining. The people running these operations got people to pay them for and to run the miners that should have never been made. it will take a bigger price drop for a cloud mining operation to shutdown their rigs than it would be for a random guy with a miner, because they are subsidized by other geniuses, so again, the difficulty will not drop down as fast as it should.

[Velkro]

Just hold and wait.

Yeah, just hold and wait for single digit prices. Then panic sell. 

Panic sell is best way to quickly loose money.

[BetMoose]

I'd like to invite any non-troll, serious chartographers to put some coin behind your predictions - will make your prediction hold that much more weight showing you actually believe in it instead of just saying so.

Edit: almost forgot to link: https://www.betmoose.com/bets or you can PM for a private contract set up.

[sgbett]

I'd like to invite any non-troll, serious chartographers to put some coin behind your predictions - will make your prediction hold that much more weight showing you actually believe in it instead of just saying so.

Edit: almost forgot to link: https://www.betmoose.com/bets or you can PM for a private contract set up.

There are already some pretty big bets running...

~830BTC on http://bitbet.us/bet/635/1btc-10-000-usd/
~70BTC on http://bitbet.us/bet/716/btc-worth-over-5000-before-2015/

I am pretty much the entirety of the yes side on the second one, and also stand to do well if the first one resolves to yes just due to the sheer size of the no side. (I think this is looking unlikely now though!)

So I'm already pretty heavily backing my bullish stance by most people's measures. Especially when you consider what the fiat price was at the time.

[Biodom]

I'd like to invite any non-troll, serious chartographers to put some coin behind your predictions - will make your prediction hold that much more weight showing you actually believe in it instead of just saying so.

Edit: almost forgot to link: https://www.betmoose.com/bets or you can PM for a private contract set up.

There are already some pretty big bets running...

~830BTC on http://bitbet.us/bet/635/1btc-10-000-usd/
~70BTC on http://bitbet.us/bet/716/btc-worth-over-5000-before-2015/

I am pretty much the entirety of the yes side on the second one, and also stand to do well if the first one resolves to yes just due to the sheer size of the no side. (I think this is looking unlikely now though!)

So I'm already pretty heavily backing my bullish stance by most people's measures. Especially when you consider what the fiat price was at the time.

Long odds, but payout on the NO is too little (3.3%) to be interested in taking the opposite side.
Basically, you just donated ~5BTC to that website.

My reasoning: ~1200 in 2013 was similarly extended to ~$32 in 2011. In 2011 the long term bear market ensued, which at some point resulted in the negative hashing speed adjustment. The bear market of Nov 2013-today has yet to result in negative hashing speed adjustment. Once it does, and it will, in my opinion, it would still be 2-4 mo before the new bull market begins. In 2011 hashing rate REDUCED more than twofold during ~95% decline. At what levels bear market will exhaust itself? if we adjust as much as in 2011, we are looking at something like $75-85. These numbers look a bit extreme, so we might adjust to a previous top of ~$266 instead.

[sgbett]

I'd like to invite any non-troll, serious chartographers to put some coin behind your predictions - will make your prediction hold that much more weight showing you actually believe in it instead of just saying so.

Edit: almost forgot to link: https://www.betmoose.com/bets or you can PM for a private contract set up.

There are already some pretty big bets running...

~830BTC on http://bitbet.us/bet/635/1btc-10-000-usd/
~70BTC on http://bitbet.us/bet/716/btc-worth-over-5000-before-2015/

I am pretty much the entirety of the yes side on the second one, and also stand to do well if the first one resolves to yes just due to the sheer size of the no side. (I think this is looking unlikely now though!)

So I'm already pretty heavily backing my bullish stance by most people's measures. Especially when you consider what the fiat price was at the time.

Long odds, but payout on the NO is too little (3.3%) to be interested in taking the opposite side.
Basically, you just donated ~5BTC to that website.

My reasoning: ~1200 in 2013 was similarly extended to ~$32 in 2011. In 2011 the long term bear market ensued, which at some point resulted in the negative hashing speed adjustment. The bear market of Nov 2013-today has yet to result in negative hashing speed adjustment. Once it does, and it will, in my opinion, it would still be 2-4 mo before the new bull market begins. In 2011 hashing rate REDUCED more than twofold during ~95% decline. At what levels bear market will exhaust itself? if we adjust as much as in 2011, we are looking at something like $75-85. These numbers look a bit extreme, so we might adjust to a previous top of ~$266 instead.

Yes very long odds. When I made the bet that wasn't the case, but I had a feeling we were going down before we go up which was going to work in my favour. So far that's played out exactly as I thought. Too well in fact, to the point where I have pretty much written off any chance of winning. Still its interesting to dream eh

Coincidentally 30 Sep last year was when we saw final capitulation sell off down to around $140. Over the subsequent 8 weeks we saw a 9x increase to around 1230. It's funny that today we are seeing knife's down that seem to be begin convincingly bought back up each time. Feels even more like the bottom than the other 17 times I thought it was

Unlikely history will repeat itself but just for fun that puts us on a $380 to ~$3500 run up before november's out. Not enough for me to win, but lets say that this time there is much more money chasing much fewer coins...

For the hard of reading trolls, I'll reiterate that I'm speculating - I'm not saying its gonna happen with the conviction of a rabid bear, as those that preach doom are prone to doing.

Make your own choices people (I do)

[wobber]

I'll give to the OP 1 whole BTC if price will be even $56,000 in the next 14 months. Just remind me because I'll be on a yacht busy with booze and women.

[sgbett]

I'll give to the OP 1 whole BTC if price will be even $56,000 in the next 14 months. Just remind me because I'll be on a yacht busy with booze and women.

Respect to that! Then I will donate it to charity.

Remind me though because I'll be busy driving around in my sports car hehe

[jcoin200]

I can't tell if this is serious, or just mocking all the uber-bulls on here. 

[robinwilliams]

I can't tell if this is serious, or just mocking all the uber-bulls on here. 

yea poes law.  and people call me a troll 

[wilth1]

Bitcoin is still a nerd toy. A chunk of institutional "investing" could fuel a 100x price bubble. If it ever becomes "mainstream", your figures suddenly look completely reasonable. This is completely realistic, considering the orders of magnitude to date.  But there is an alternate future where bitcoin survives (doesn't die), the network emaciates, and it never catches on institutionally or as a currency - but is still completely useful.