[prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 {<-oops!} months from now (2017 Update!)

[Cluster2k]

If we just believe, we can make this happen.  It's all the negative non believers who are crashing the party.  If we pulled our Asks and placed them all at over $10k, we could have $10k tomorrow.  People would be so desperate to buy bitcoins that they would be begging us to buy them at $10k.  Then we shift Asks to $100k.  If we only just believe.

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[Skirmant]

If we just believe, we can make this happen.  It's all the negative non believers who are crashing the party.  If we pulled our Asks and placed them all at over $10k, we could have $10k tomorrow.  People would be so desperate to buy bitcoins that they would be begging us to buy them at $10k.  Then we shift Asks to $100k.  If we only just believe.

Sure, if only bitcoiners were a Borg like hive mind they could agree to never sell until the price inflated into a bazillion dollars.
But that's not how reality works, were all human, greedy and uncertain of Bitcoin's future value.

[LiteCoinGuy]

TL;DR

hodl, definitly hodl 

but codl!

[sgbett]

prediction: sgbett is f***ing retarded

Take heed people, this is the counter argument. 

[blatchcorn]

prediction: sgbett is f***ing retarded

Take heed people, this is the counter argument. 

I wonder if he can produce a chart to prove it?

[sgbett]

Could someone please add dates to the x-axis? I don't see the units, is it function(days from today)? Where function=sin?

The values aren't really supposed to be accurate, both time and price axis are kind of arbitrary (as per assumptions in the first post of 10years and 300k) it's more about the scale of movement that has to happen to reach an arbitrary end price based on this kind of model. In the chart I posted as an example though the x axis is days. So ther is about 3650 in 10 years give or take

The actual outcomes could be very different depending on whether a cycle lines up with the max rate of adoption in the s-curve. What I posted was just a shot in the dark based on one set of inputs. A surprising one admittedly but it shows the kind of crazy range of possibilities.

None of this means I don't still think it *could* go to zero(ish) because if you stop forgetting that then you start behaving irrationally. It just means that I hadn't considered all the possibilities. That I ahd kind of dismissed the crazy talk of btc at 1million dollars, as being a bit loony. I think I was mistaken to close off my mind to that possibility, because if it were to ever happen I would be unprepared.

I had a look on log scale it's a bit jiggly, but I'll post it up in a bit

[sgbett]

This is log version of that chart...

[ssmc2]

This is log version of that chart...

Wow, that 10k to 100k 

[Valerian77]

This is log version of that chart...

Your argument from the initial posting is very good. But you should adjust the numbers. If Bitcoin climbs to 1 Mio USD then it will take over the world economy with a M1 value of 21 * 10^12 USD. It is doubtful that this will happen. But who knows ...

[sgbett]

I thought about that

Your argument from the initial posting is very good. But you should adjust the numbers. If Bitcoin climbs to 1 Mio USD then it will take over the world economy with a M1 value of 21 * 10^12 USD. It is doubtful that this will happen. But who knows ...

Yes that would be insane, but that would be market cap not all the bitcoin were bought at that value. Indeed that would likely be what fuelled the post adoption selloff, the final valuation being 300k per coin making market cap of $6.3T not outlandish by any stretch (again given that all coins werent bought at that market price, the actual no of dollars it would take to get to that market cap wold be far less)

[exocytosis]

Bitcoin will go to a hundred thousand trillion dollars a week from now. It'll conquer the universe and bring peace and prosperity to all galaxies.

Why?

Because I say so. And I have the charts to prove it.

That's OP's argument, in a nutshell. He's thought out this completely delusional "what if ..."-scenario, and then goes on to treat this scenario as the way things must play out.

Meanwhile, in the real world, Bitcoin is crashing. Again. Because no one wants to buy this shitty asset.

[podyx]

This is log version of that chart...

Doesn't seem too far off so far

Around $8k is where I kinda predicted to be the tipping point too
This is the shit that will prevent me from selling on  the top of the bubble and quadrupling my money though

[sgbett]

Bitcoin will go to a hundred thousand trillion dollars a week from now. It'll conquer the universe and bring peace and prosperity to all galaxies.

Why?

Because I say so. And I have the charts to prove it.

That's OP's argument, in a nutshell. He's thought out this completely delusional "what if ..."-scenario, and then goes on to treat this scenario as the way things must play out.

Meanwhile, in the real world, Bitcoin is crashing. Again. Because no one wants to buy this shitty asset.

Yes I guess me repeatedly stressing the point that I still think bitcoin might fail entirely summarises to that  

Whereas your articulate point that "no one wants to buy this shitty asset" adequately surmises the gamut of human opinion on the subject and neatly sidesteps a universe of infinite quantum possibilities by assuming that you alone in this existence, are omniscient.

[frienemy]

Bitcoin will go to a hundred thousand trillion dollars a week from now. It'll conquer the universe and bring peace and prosperity to all galaxies.

Why?

Because I say so. And I have the charts to prove it.

That's OP's argument, in a nutshell. He's thought out this completely delusional "what if ..."-scenario, and then goes on to treat this scenario as the way things must play out.

Meanwhile, in the real world, Bitcoin is crashing. Again. Because no one wants to buy this shitty asset.

Yes I guess me repeatedly stressing the point that I still think bitcoin might fail entirely summarises to that  

Whereas your articulate point that "no one wants to buy this shitty asset" adequately surmises the gamut of human opinion on the subject and neatly sidesteps a universe of infinite quantum possibilities by assuming that you alone in this existence, are omniscient.

+1 for eloquency and brain capacity

[zimmah]

Very interesting read, and I think you may be right.

Of course wall street and the banks will try to push out all the weak hands, and they will be pretty good at it too.

Trying to stay strong is important, though I'm sure I'll sell part of my bitcoin when the price really takes off, I mean who doesn't.

But as long as I can buy a large house with just a fraction of my bitcoin, I won't care that much.

[CMMPro]

Good story...sexy pictures...10/10 would fap again, thanks sgbett!

[exocytosis]

Of course wall street and the banks will try to push out all the weak hands,

Wall Street and the banks have never been interested in this MLM scheme, and they never will be.

Some clever salesmen like Barry Silbert and the Winklevii have fooled clueless bitcoiners into thinking that Wall Street will suddenly jump aboard the BTC train and immediately drive it to 10k and beyond, after first, magically, crashing the price using some elaborate manipulation scheme.

If you wanna continue believing in that fairytale: Fine. Do so.

But don't come crying when all of your wealth evaporates before your eyes, as BTC continues its march towards its true price, which is in the single digits. Cuz you were warned.

[Wexlike]

Of course wall street and the banks will try to push out all the weak hands,

Wall Street and the banks have never been interested in this MLM scheme, and they never will be.

Some clever salesmen like Barry Silbert and the Winklevii have fooled clueless bitcoiners into thinking that Wall Street will suddenly jump aboard the BTC train and immediately drive it to 10k and beyond, after first, magically, crashing the price using some elaborate manipulation scheme.

If you wanna continue believing in that fairytale: Fine. Do so.

But don't come crying when all of your wealth evaporates before your eyes, as BTC continues its march towards its true price, which is in the single digits. Cuz you were warned.

$ 1266.07 on July 23.

 

[xDan]

Good story...sexy pictures...10/10 would fap again, thanks sgbett!

+1

you are the hero bitcoin needs sgbett

you are my new favourite bull

I haven't had a favourite bull since a bubble or two ago.

[ssmc2]

Haha this is the real Fappening people