[prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 {<-oops!} months from now (2017 Update!)

[gentlemand]

How many years did it take gold to get the the point where it was 0.5% of all wealth? To build all of its deep, deep cultural capital in both the West and the East?

It must have been far, far more of all wealth once a upon a time. I think BTC will be a top down deal. Regular folk may not be all that aware of what's going on around them behind the scenes as it creeps into the cracks.

It may well reach higher values purely on its utility, though obviously not the bonkers numbers people often throw around. That whole side of things is really only just beginning to be explored.

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[Amph]

For ten or twenty million bitcoins to become worth hundreds of thousands of dollars each, trillions of dollars would have to go *poof*.  Which means the world economy would have to go *poof*.
Does this make sense to anybody here?  You don't go from a few billion to trillions like walking across the room.  It's more like having a hurricane blow the roof off and getting sucked up into the sky.  But people are talking about it as if it were a routine matter that fits into present thinking.  It's a fantasy.

Nothing has to go poof for bitcoin to get to $1 trillion (10^12) as all wealth was ~223 trillion is 2012 and probably at least 30% higher now.
So, the question is: to get to $1 tril (or ~$50k/btc) can bitcoin gather 0.5% of all wealth or 15% of wealth currently in gold?
Maybe.

How many years did it take gold to get the the point where it was 0.5% of all wealth? To build all of its deep, deep cultural capital in both the West and the East?

It took some decades for the dollar to be a global currency used by all the world. Why bitcoin wouldn't be able to go faster than the dollar when we know all the advantages of bitcoin. Bitcoin is made to be the currency of the world.

The bitcoin network can handle 2 transactions per second. It couldn't function as the currency of Jamaica.

the changes are coming, and if really bitcoin will move faster than gold, then in another 4 years(which mean 32 MB limit for TX, based on the new plan of Gavin) bitcoin should achieve what it was aiming since its launch

i expect a good rise, at max around 2024, when miners activity will not count anymore as a form of dumping

[Biodom]

For ten or twenty million bitcoins to become worth hundreds of thousands of dollars each, trillions of dollars would have to go *poof*.  Which means the world economy would have to go *poof*.
Does this make sense to anybody here?  You don't go from a few billion to trillions like walking across the room.  It's more like having a hurricane blow the roof off and getting sucked up into the sky.  But people are talking about it as if it were a routine matter that fits into present thinking.  It's a fantasy.

Nothing has to go poof for bitcoin to get to $1 trillion (10^12) as all wealth was ~223 trillion is 2012 and probably at least 30% higher now.
So, the question is: to get to $1 tril (or ~$50k/btc) can bitcoin gather 0.5% of all wealth or 15% of wealth currently in gold?
Maybe.

How many years did it take gold to get the the point where it was 0.5% of all wealth? To build all of its deep, deep cultural capital in both the West and the East?

It took some decades for the dollar to be a global currency used by all the world. Why bitcoin wouldn't be able to go faster than the dollar when we know all the advantages of bitcoin. Bitcoin is made to be the currency of the world.

The bitcoin network can handle 2 transactions per second. It couldn't function as the currency of Jamaica.

did you see google fiber (1gbit/sec) in then top-notch 28K modem of just 20 years ago?
things change (X40000 in example above).

[jehst]

How many years did it take gold to get the the point where it was 0.5% of all wealth? To build all of its deep, deep cultural capital in both the West and the East?

It must have been far, far more of all wealth once a upon a time. I think BTC will be a top down deal. Regular folk may not be all that aware of what's going on around them behind the scenes as it creeps into the cracks.

It may well reach higher values purely on its utility, though obviously not the bonkers numbers people often throw around. That whole side of things is really only just beginning to be explored.

Sure, gold was probably was worth upwards of 10% of all wealth when there was no paper money and all the major empires were using precious metals as money.

I agree that bitcoin's not going to have much mainstream consumer adoption any time soon. We're still in the realm of niches.

[ejinte]

For ten or twenty million bitcoins to become worth hundreds of thousands of dollars each, trillions of dollars would have to go *poof*.  Which means the world economy would have to go *poof*.
Does this make sense to anybody here?  You don't go from a few billion to trillions like walking across the room.  It's more like having a hurricane blow the roof off and getting sucked up into the sky.  But people are talking about it as if it were a routine matter that fits into present thinking.  It's a fantasy.

Nothing has to go poof for bitcoin to get to $1 trillion (10^12) as all wealth was ~223 trillion is 2012 and probably at least 30% higher now.
So, the question is: to get to $1 tril (or ~$50k/btc) can bitcoin gather 0.5% of all wealth or 15% of wealth currently in gold?
Maybe.

How many years did it take gold to get the the point where it was 0.5% of all wealth? To build all of its deep, deep cultural capital in both the West and the East?

It took some decades for the dollar to be a global currency used by all the world. Why bitcoin wouldn't be able to go faster than the dollar when we know all the advantages of bitcoin. Bitcoin is made to be the currency of the world.

The bitcoin network can handle 2 transactions per second. It couldn't function as the currency of Jamaica.

the changes are coming, and if really bitcoin will move faster than gold, then in another 4 years(which mean 32 MB limit for TX, based on the new plan of Gavin) bitcoin should achieve what it was aiming since its launch

i expect a good rise, at max around 2024, when miners activity will not count anymore as a form of dumping

32MB blocks would mean that the blockchain increased with almost 5GB per day, to be that doesn't seem sustainable.

[Natalia_AnatolioPAMM]

For ten or twenty million bitcoins to become worth hundreds of thousands of dollars each, trillions of dollars would have to go *poof*.  Which means the world economy would have to go *poof*.
Does this make sense to anybody here?  You don't go from a few billion to trillions like walking across the room.  It's more like having a hurricane blow the roof off and getting sucked up into the sky.  But people are talking about it as if it were a routine matter that fits into present thinking.  It's a fantasy.

Nothing has to go poof for bitcoin to get to $1 trillion (10^12) as all wealth was ~223 trillion is 2012 and probably at least 30% higher now.
So, the question is: to get to $1 tril (or ~$50k/btc) can bitcoin gather 0.5% of all wealth or 15% of wealth currently in gold?
Maybe.

How many years did it take gold to get the the point where it was 0.5% of all wealth? To build all of its deep, deep cultural capital in both the West and the East?

It took some decades for the dollar to be a global currency used by all the world. Why bitcoin wouldn't be able to go faster than the dollar when we know all the advantages of bitcoin. Bitcoin is made to be the currency of the world.

The bitcoin network can handle 2 transactions per second. It couldn't function as the currency of Jamaica.

that's the reason to develop!

[futureofbitcoin]

You don't actually need a trillion dollars to have a trillion dollar marketcap for bitcoin. That's what people are not getting.


Let's say 4 million coins are already lost, and another 10 million coins are in the hands of hodlers that won't sell until bitcoin is 10mill each. Okay, the numbers are obviously exaggerated, but it's to show a point.

Currently there are 14,289,199 BTC bitcoins, taking away 14 million of them, we have 289,199 left in circulation. If 2,891,990,000 (so about 3 billion) dollars went into bitcoin the currency, what would happen? Well, since there are only 289,199 of them, so they're worth 10,000 each.

What happens to bitcoin's market cap? Well, 10k * 14 mil = 142,891,990,000, or about 143 billion dollars market cap. If 28.9 billion dollars went into bitcoin the currency, the market cap would be 1.4 trillion.


So you don't need to have a trillion dollars disappear from elsewhere. a good part of the market cap is "created from thin air".

[techgeek]

Then again, we pass something maybe this coin will do a mt.gox moment for  a split sec.

If the twins pass that etf now, which I have hopes for since I can see they did the exchange why not lol.

[edgar]

I'll be happy if it hits $17000 

who will be not?

the rodents who already have so much, that their joy comes from seeing others lose & suffer.

[Dilla]

5 months to go? That's an increase of $2.50/min. Starting now.

THIS IS BITCOIN LETS MAKE IT HAPPEN.


Well, one could wish right? 

[Meuh6879]

The bitcoin network can handle 2 transactions per second. It couldn't function as the currency of Jamaica.

Learn and you can use safetly.

[gentlemand]

5 months to go? That's an increase of $2.50/min. Starting now.

THIS IS BITCOIN LETS MAKE IT HAPPEN.


Well, one could wish right? 

Far too silly. I think it would be more realistic if everyone agreed to increase the price at the same time once a week by $25,000. Could make for some interesting charts.

[Biodom]

This is log version of that chart...

On the original sgbett's chart ^^^ x=days as per
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=800330.msg9005672#msg9005672
below is my comment on this chart. in red-approximation of what actually happened (days and prices are approximate at the current situation).
Green arrow is what is needed to get on the chart-I am not predicting that it will, just playing with the graph.


As drawn, we will be back at the graph at ~$8000 on Feb 20, 2016. Again, I am not predicting anything.

[srgkrgkj]

this isnt as unrealistic as it looks tbh guys, the last spike was a crazy 100x rise so we could easily do that again given the right conditions and bots lol

[XxionxX]

5 months to go? That's an increase of $2.50/min. Starting now.

THIS IS BITCOIN LETS MAKE IT HAPPEN.


Well, one could wish right? 

Far too silly. I think it would be more realistic if everyone agreed to increase the price at the same time once a week by $25,000. Could make for some interesting charts.

I would be stupid happy for $10k-$50k. Somewhere around $70k I will probably go into shock and have a heart attack. I have made sure my gf knows how to use btc just in case. I didn't tell her about why though, I just made her think I was being a nerd again.

Mostly I still don't believe we will ever make it that high. I will hodl until I die though.

[jehst]

5 months to go? That's an increase of $2.50/min. Starting now.

THIS IS BITCOIN LETS MAKE IT HAPPEN.


Well, one could wish right?  

Far too silly. I think it would be more realistic if everyone agreed to increase the price at the same time once a week by $25,000. Could make for some interesting charts.

I would be stupid happy for $10k-$50k. Somewhere around $70k I will probably go into shock and have a heart attack. I have made sure my gf knows how to use btc just in case. I didn't tell her about why though, I just made her think I was being a nerd again.

Mostly I still don't believe we will ever make it that high. I will hodl until I die though.

It's been said a million times by the veterans, but it bears repeating: the mistake you'll make is selling too early. I've done it multiple times, even after learning that it was a bad thing to do.  I doubt your "hodl until I die" plan will work when emotion takes over.

You need a detailed plan (with numbers), such as rpietila's SSS plan, that you can refer to when emotion threatens to take over.

[gentlemand]

It's been said a million times by the veterans, but it bears repeating: the mistake you'll make is selling too early. I've done it multiple times, even after learning that it was a bad thing to do.  I doubt your "hodl until I die" plan will work when emotion takes over.

The last year and a half have been a fine trial by fire for people who've sat through it all. I'm sure they've felt the full spectrum of emotions. If you've lived through this then I think you're probably pretty hardened to future swings. If you're still around now you're likely to be in it for the long haul.

[jehst]

It's been said a million times by the veterans, but it bears repeating: the mistake you'll make is selling too early. I've done it multiple times, even after learning that it was a bad thing to do.  I doubt your "hodl until I die" plan will work when emotion takes over.

The last year and a half have been a fine trial by fire for people who've sat through it all. I'm sure they've felt the full spectrum of emotions. If you've lived through this then I think you're probably pretty hardened to future swings. If you're still around now you're likely to be in it for the long haul.

Yeah, I've been sitting through it and now I'm in too deep to turn back.
I can handle a bubble to 1000 or 3000 without losing my head. Part of me will just be thinking "Finally!"

But if it goes to $10,000 to $100,000 within the next 5-6 years, I can't see myself staying cool. Even after all the long hours playing with models and various assumptions to convince myself that it's possible.

[gentlemand]

Yeah, I've been sitting through it and now I'm in too deep to turn back.
I can handle a bubble to 1000 or 3000 without losing my head. Part of me will just be thinking "Finally!"

But if it goes to $10,000 to $100,000 within the next 5-6 years, I can't see myself staying cool. Even after all the long hours playing with models and various assumptions to convince myself that it's possible.

If it succeeds then by its very nature there'll never be a 'top'. It'll carry on deflating. I guess everyone needs to set themselves a goal and start spending when it reaches it. Paper profits ain't much fun. It's no good sitting in a shack eating ramen waiting for a mythical price level when there's a whole world out there waiting to be lived in.

[Biodom]

It's been said a million times by the veterans, but it bears repeating: the mistake you'll make is selling too early. I've done it multiple times, even after learning that it was a bad thing to do.  I doubt your "hodl until I die" plan will work when emotion takes over.

The last year and a half have been a fine trial by fire for people who've sat through it all. I'm sure they've felt the full spectrum of emotions. If you've lived through this then I think you're probably pretty hardened to future swings. If you're still around now you're likely to be in it for the long haul.

Yeah, I've been sitting through it and now I'm in too deep to turn back.
I can handle a bubble to 1000 or 3000 without losing my head. Part of me will just be thinking "Finally!"

But if it goes to $10,000 to $100,000 within the next 5-6 years, I can't see myself staying cool. Even after all the long hours playing with models and various assumptions to convince myself that it's possible.

100K probably won't happen for a simple reason that it would make too many early-to-mid adopters rich, so they have to sellout beforehand, say at 1K-10K.

A good plan if you are positive on BTC: accumulate in 2015-2016, then starting in 2016-2017 divide your presumable stash by the number of years that equal maxumum that you'll live (have left). Say, be optimistic and go for 100. Then, cash out every year this number of BTC on your birthday, wife/GF birthday or son/daughetr birthday.
This way, you would probably enjoy it more.