[prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 {<-oops!} months from now (2017 Update!)

[JayJuanGee]

$560,000 to 1 MM+ will be the mature value of a bitcoin once it's *the* currency of the internet. *The* destination for offshore wealth storage. *The* currency of outsourcing. Held by all central banks in their reserves alongside the USD, YEN, GBP, and gold. But this will take perhaps 20 years. The idea that this will happen within a few years is pretty nutty IMO. The infrastructure takes time to be built. Hell, it may take another year or two for the Winklevoss ETF to go live.

Wow... it does not take that much infrastructure for BTC to reach $500k to $1million.  bitcoin would only need to be about the equivalent of gold's market cap for it to reach $1million.... so you are making it sound more insurmountable than it is...

Sure, there are likely going to be a lot of struggles on the way up, but bitcoin does not need to be dominant in order to reach $1million per piece.  if bitcoin is 1% to 10% of the economy, it would well surpass the value of gold and surpass $1million per piece...

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[Biodom]

rational market hypothesis suggests that if btc will reach the market cap of gold within 15-20 years, today's prices would be much higher, maybe in $5000-6000 territory, otherwise yearly appreciation would be too high: about 40% ea year for 20 years.

[JayJuanGee]

rational market hypothesis suggests that if btc will reach the market cap of gold within 15-20 years, today's prices would be much higher, maybe in $5000-6000 territory, otherwise yearly appreciation would be too high: about 40% ea year for 20 years.

Your calculations seem a bit off.

Currently, the market cap of bitcoin is a bit over $10 billion, and the market cap of gold is a bit under $10 trillion.  That is not quite, but approximately a 1,000x difference in market cap.

For argument sake, let's say that the difference is only 500x to give the benefit of the doubt to a lower bitcoin value, but a 500x increase in bitcoin's market cap is going to cause the unit price to go up 500x also, and 500x of the current BTC price is approximately $650 x 500 = $325,000.  Sure a lot has to happen in order for bitcoin to reach such levels of adoption, but you gotta consider that if bitcoin comes even close to what folks are projecting to be bitcoin potentiality, we are talking about numbers that are magnitudes greater than the $5k to $6k price per unit territory which is currently a 10x increase in BTC from current prices.

I have no problem with posters projecting various bullish or bearish scenarios, but we are attempting to describe potential equivalencies with other asset classes, we should at least attempt to get the numbers kind of right, no?

[Biodom]

rational market hypothesis suggests that if btc will reach the market cap of gold within 15-20 years, today's prices would be much higher, maybe in $5000-6000 territory, otherwise yearly appreciation would be too high: about 40% ea year for 20 years.

Your calculations seem a bit off.

Currently, the market cap of bitcoin is a bit over $10 billion, and the market cap of gold is a bit under $10 trillion.  That is not quite, but approximately a 1,000x difference in market cap.

For argument sake, let's say that the difference is only 500x to give the benefit of the doubt to a lower bitcoin value, but a 500x increase in bitcoin's market cap is going to cause the unit price to go up 500x also, and 500x of the current BTC price is approximately $650 x 500 = $325,000.  Sure a lot has to happen in order for bitcoin to reach such levels of adoption, but you gotta consider that if bitcoin comes even close to what folks are projecting to be bitcoin potentiality, we are talking about numbers that are magnitudes greater than the $5k to $6k price per unit territory which is currently a 10x increase in BTC from current prices.

I have no problem with posters projecting various bullish or bearish scenarios, but we are attempting to describe potential equivalencies with other asset classes, we should at least attempt to get the numbers kind of right, no?

I guess i did not make my point clear, which was that for bitcoin to be at 500K 20 years from now, yearly appreciation has to be 40% ea year on average for 20 years (unlikely), while if bitcoin ALREADY was $5000 (instead of current $650), it would have to be a more moderate 26%/year for 20 years (slightly more realistic).

Basically, markets would have already boosted current btc price much further IF we had high probability (in market's opinion) of 500K/btc by 2036. Example: markets boosted yahoo price to 250bil in early 2000 when they perceived Yahoo as a leading Internet company. That valuation was not supported by anything, but a market foreseeing the importance of Internet, with value eventually flowing from shrinking yahoo to Google, then facebook.

[JayJuanGee]

rational market hypothesis suggests that if btc will reach the market cap of gold within 15-20 years, today's prices would be much higher, maybe in $5000-6000 territory, otherwise yearly appreciation would be too high: about 40% ea year for 20 years.

Your calculations seem a bit off.

Currently, the market cap of bitcoin is a bit over $10 billion, and the market cap of gold is a bit under $10 trillion.  That is not quite, but approximately a 1,000x difference in market cap.

For argument sake, let's say that the difference is only 500x to give the benefit of the doubt to a lower bitcoin value, but a 500x increase in bitcoin's market cap is going to cause the unit price to go up 500x also, and 500x of the current BTC price is approximately $650 x 500 = $325,000.  Sure a lot has to happen in order for bitcoin to reach such levels of adoption, but you gotta consider that if bitcoin comes even close to what folks are projecting to be bitcoin potentiality, we are talking about numbers that are magnitudes greater than the $5k to $6k price per unit territory which is currently a 10x increase in BTC from current prices.

I have no problem with posters projecting various bullish or bearish scenarios, but we are attempting to describe potential equivalencies with other asset classes, we should at least attempt to get the numbers kind of right, no?

I guess i did not make my point clear, which was that for bitcoin to be at 500K 20 years from now, yearly appreciation has to be 40% ea year on average for 20 years (unlikely), while if bitcoin ALREADY was $5000 (instead of current $650), it would have to be a more moderate 26%/year for 20 years (slightly more realistic).

Basically, markets would have already boosted current btc price much further IF we had high probability (in market's opinion) of 500K/btc by 2036. Example: markets boosted yahoo price to 250bil in early 2000 when they perceived Yahoo as a leading Internet company. That valuation was not supported by anything, but a market foreseeing the importance of Internet, with value eventually flowing from shrinking yahoo to Google, then facebook.

Thanks for that clarification.  It seems that I must have either misunderstood your point, or maybe I was just inclined to attempt to take the conversation in a slightly different direction... hahahahahaha

Sure, more or less, I agree about your almost common sensical point that it is a lot easier to get to an even higher price point if we have already achieved a higher price point, but the reality of the matter is all of that is relative.  We cannot really judge where bitcoin is or where bitcoin should be based on making some kind of comparison to Yahoo or the internet.. Yeah, sure, the internet and Yahoo are probably somewhat analogous in terms of their paradigm changing contributions, but we also have not ever seen anything, ever before, like bitcoin, so limiting its upwards potential based on where it is and where it is projected to potentially go seems to attempt to oversimplify the matter and possibly failing/refusing to recognize some of the potential for a kind of upward explosion (even if that upward explosion potential has a pretty low probability of actually taking place).

Also, when you average it out, year by year, you also seem to be attempting to downplay any kind of weirdness and irrationality that likely comes from an upward explosion that is really difficult to assess or to even understand the snowballing.. that is currently within the unknown.. and yeah, snowballing is not inevitable and upwards is certainly not inevitable either.. and looking at something retrospectively would allow for an assessment and even an averaging out of years, but it remains quite difficult to attempt to categorize and contain predictions within rational bounds and to describe upward bounds as a kind of linear, rather than having exponential potential... that has already kind of been demonstrated to be within the realms of possibility within bitcoin, no?  look at 2010?  2011? 2013?   And, where is bitcoin now?  gosh... bitcoin is quite a bit more positively developed compared with those earlier years and earlier experiences of exponential growth, no?

I repeat that I am not saying that any kind of exponential growth is inevitable.. I am just saying that exponential growth needs to be considered as within the realm of possibilities, even if you only place such realm of possibilities at .001%

[hv_]

My recent log log plot would predict next spike of 80'000 by end of 2018 and 1Mio not before 2025.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg16991011#msg16991011

[jjacob]

My recent log log plot would predict next spike of 80'000 by end of 2018 and 1Mio not before 2025.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg16991011#msg16991011

The y axis (time scale) doesn't have any markings. So it is not possible to infer when the price will cross $1Mn from the chart.
In any case, I am ready to wait till 2025 if it means I get a windfall after that. 

[CoinCidental]

My recent log log plot would predict next spike of 80'000 by end of 2018 and 1Mio not before 2025.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg16991011#msg16991011

The y axis (time scale) doesn't have any markings. So it is not possible to infer when the price will cross $1Mn from the chart.
In any case, I am ready to wait till 2025 if it means I get a windfall after that. 

Nice chart, I'll take it ... 

[hv_]

My recent log log plot would predict next spike of 80'000 by end of 2018 and 1Mio not before 2025.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg16991011#msg16991011

The y axis (time scale) doesn't have any markings. So it is not possible to infer when the price will cross $1Mn from the chart.
In any case, I am ready to wait till 2025 if it means I get a windfall after that. 

Have a look on this log log plot and channel.

The price is log as you normally compare gains in percentage.

The time, from about Aug 2010 to now, is in log scale as well i.o. to account for the exponential growth.

Data are from blockchain.info




In the lower right corner you see same log log for gold. from 1969 to about 1990 you might just compare the price incease, which was mostly same shape as for bitcoin but way lower exponent.

I believe in that chart, and here comes some questions and a small favor

1. The favor : Could you please edit the chart with time scale to see when we can hit $10K and $1MM ?

2. I believe in "History Does Not Repeat Itself, But It Rhymes", what makes you sure that we will hit $10K and $1MM ?

I tried to add the time scale but im not in front of a PC. My tablet is not runing proper Excel to do that.

But you can use the artificial points to orient:

80k at end 2018 ( Top green marker)

10k support lower channel end of 2022 ( Bottom red square)

1Mio at end 2024 (Top green marker)

Depending on when the next hyperbolic run will start the 10k might be seen first by end 2017 ?

[0xfff]

Do any of these charts actually mean anything or is it just people drawing lines to try to convince you to buy/sell? 

[hv_]

Do any of these charts actually mean anything or is it just people drawing lines to try to convince you to buy/sell?  

Your re absolutely on the right track. This all suggerates any prediction power that is not existent.

Nobody really can predict markets - it's just a very poor try by searching for patterns.

[sgbett]

Do any of these charts actually mean anything or is it just people drawing lines to try to convince you to buy/sell?  

Your re absolutely on the right track. This all suggerates any prediction power that is not existent.

Nobody really can predict markets - it's just a very poor try by searching for patterns.

Rumour has it the OP said the title was click bait and the underlying message was the price chart will look like speculative bubbles overlaid on an  s-curve of adoption. Dunno where we're at right now, I'd guess ETF around the corner means "institutional investors" but flirting with ATH seemed a nice time to bump this nut job thread

560k has a nice ring though, so I'm sticking with it as my 'target'

[Ahab_Hunter_of_BearWhale]

I'm surprised people still entertain this thread. $560,000 ? everyone can be a millionaire by just owning 2 bitcoins.

You are goofy!!!!

What the fuck do you think would happen if everyone tried to own 2 bitcoins? Well, only 10.5 million could accomplish that, at most.

The fact of the matter is that by the time it becomes somewhat clear that bitcoin is going to $560k (that is if it is going to go there), then the price is going to be well upon its way to that point (maybe well in the $50k to $100k territory, and a lot of folks will sell along the way..... so yeah, it is good to get your 2 bitcoin reserve, now and then just hold those in cold storage, and maybe just play around with your other BTC holdings, if you have such will power.

 It is likely not a clear path to $560k per BTC, and not everyone is going to hold onto their coins to become the millionaire or millionaire plus that they would like to become.

Yup, sensible post here. It's wise NEVER to sell all of your btc holdings.

[BillyBobZorton]

I'm surprised people still entertain this thread. $560,000 ? everyone can be a millionaire by just owning 2 bitcoins.

There are only going to ever exist 21 million bitcoins.

Now, 21 million - the lost bitcoins (and they will keep getting lost) = Yes, very possible that in the future owning 2 BTC means being a millionaire.

There are tons of millionaires out there. Having 1 million on the bank is nothing nowadays.

[sgbett]

In light of new information, I have revised the original estimate. I think you'll agree this is much more realistic now...

[hv_]

In light of new information, I have revised the original estimate. I think you'll agree this is much more realistic now...

Log scale pls - at least on x axis (price) - Reason: I cannot see myself below the red quote-arrow, despite I think I'm tall enough.

Tx a lot

 

[sgbett]

Alas, I no longer have the original spreadsheet, hence the fuzzy screenshot edit

This is best I could do...

[Biodom]

I have a feeling that stuff around scaling will be the last chance to, maybe, get some discount, however unlikely.
Barring this, the significant entry of large funds is getting more and more likely and with this, eventual move of the whole crypto complex into trillions.

$1 tril with 50% to btc is about 30K/btc (could be more than 50%, of course).
That's stage 1.
The rest is to be continued, but I always appeciate this irreverent thread.

[CoinCidental]

I have a feeling that stuff around scaling will be the last chance to, maybe, get some discount, however unlikely.
Barring this, the significant entry of large funds is getting more and more likely and with this, eventual move of the whole crypto complex into trillions.

$1 tril with 50% to btc is about 30K/btc (could be more than 50%, of course).
That's stage 1.
The rest is to be continued, but I always appeciate this irreverent thread.

i also have the feeling this is the last major shakeout and coins will never be this cheap again after 1st august
whales are happy to buy your btc for $2.5k now because they know its going to 10k
just a matter of time

[HI-TEC99]

In light of new information, I have revised the original estimate. I think you'll agree this is much more realistic now...

Where's the time scale on that chart? Substituting "much ignore" for the timescale makes the whole thing rather vague. Nobody can criticise you if Bitcoin hasn't hit $1100000 by any particular time.