[prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 {<-oops!} months from now (2017 Update!)

[gentlemand]

Yeah, or it won't happen because something much better comes along, where not lots and lots of electricity is wasted for "mining", we don't have to wait 5-60 minutes for a "block" and where not a big part of the coins is already distributed, most of them lost in hacks or theft. Just saying, this is also a possibility. Bitcoin is starting to look a little outdated to be honest. I'm still holing though. So far there is nothing better that is working, not yet.

There's an interesting correlation between euphoria and the unwillingness to embrace hard facts. The existing lull certainly gives the people involved the opportunity to really think long and hard about the path they've gone down.

Overall it's a healthy thing. Perhaps Bitcoin will have to step up to the mark and address its flaws before it can really take off again. It still has a lot of convincing to do.

[1714315077]

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[1714315077]

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[jehst]

after every bubble there was a period of stagnation, we have seen this pattern before.
Sometimes it takes months to start another rally but it may lasts years

Yeah, or it won't happen because something much better comes along, where not lots and lots of electricity is wasted for "mining", we don't have to wait 5-60 minutes for a "block" and where not a big part of the coins is already distributed, most of them lost in hacks or theft. Just saying, this is also a possibility. Bitcoin is starting to look a little outdated to be honest. I'm still holing though. So far there is nothing better that is working, not yet.

We can tweak the parameters. Peercoin doesn't use electricity for mining. LTC has faster blocks. But this is basically it. This family of cryptocurrencies will rise and fall together in the years to come.

[ejinte]

This family of cryptocurrencies will rise and fall together in the years to come.

Agreed.

[jehst]

$560,000 bitcoin with a 3600 daily mining reward means that the bitcoin mining industry alone would be a $735,840,000,000 per year industry. In 2007, the annual worldwide gold production was 2500 tonnes (80 million ounces) worth $54,000,000,000 at $675 per ounce.  (http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/tiny-size-gold-market)

So bitcoin's mining industry, after 6 years of existence, would be worth over 13x (735,840,000,000 / 54,000,000,000 = 13.63) the WORLDWIDE gold mining industry. Over 13x. Think about all the mining companies in Alaska, Russia, China, etc. All worth 13x less than the BITCOIN mining industry.

That's the kind of crack that we're smoking here.

[inca]

$560,000 bitcoin with a 3600 daily mining reward means that the bitcoin mining industry alone would be a $735,840,000,000 per year industry. In 2007, the annual worldwide gold production was 2500 tonnes (80 million ounces) worth $54,000,000,000 at $675 per ounce.  (http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/tiny-size-gold-market)

So bitcoin's mining industry, after 6 years of existence, would be worth over 13x (735,840,000,000 / 54,000,000,000 = 13.63) the WORLDWIDE gold mining industry. Over 13x. Think about all the mining companies in Alaska, Russia, China, etc. All worth 13x less than the BITCOIN mining industry.

That's the kind of crack that we're smoking here.

You don't seem to understand the difference between a temporary bubble induced price and a sustainable long term price. It is perfectly possible for the exchange price to rise far higher than the mining costs or drop far lower than existing mining costs. You also seem to be under the delusion that the block reward will be 3600 coins forever when in fact it is falling exponentially.

Less crack, more reading old chap.

[jehst]

$560,000 bitcoin with a 3600 daily mining reward means that the bitcoin mining industry alone would be a $735,840,000,000 per year industry. In 2007, the annual worldwide gold production was 2500 tonnes (80 million ounces) worth $54,000,000,000 at $675 per ounce.  (http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/tiny-size-gold-market)

So bitcoin's mining industry, after 6 years of existence, would be worth over 13x (735,840,000,000 / 54,000,000,000 = 13.63) the WORLDWIDE gold mining industry. Over 13x. Think about all the mining companies in Alaska, Russia, China, etc. All worth 13x less than the BITCOIN mining industry.

That's the kind of crack that we're smoking here.

You don't seem to understand the difference between a temporary bubble induced price and a sustainable long term price. It is perfectly possible for the exchange price to rise far higher than the mining costs or drop far lower than existing mining costs. You also seem to be under the delusion that the block reward will be 3600 coins forever when in fact it is falling exponentially.

Less crack, more reading old chap.

1. This thread has the specific prediction of within 14 months of 9/14, which is firmly within the 3600 coin reward era.

2. Yes, a temporary spike can go high, but $560,000 is simply too much ground to cover. The bubble would become very fragile by the time it got to the $XX,XXX level and pop long before $560,000. Dozens of people would be becoming paper billionaires and some of them would be smart enough to hit the sell button.

[criptix]

$560,000 bitcoin with a 3600 daily mining reward means that the bitcoin mining industry alone would be a $735,840,000,000 per year industry. In 2007, the annual worldwide gold production was 2500 tonnes (80 million ounces) worth $54,000,000,000 at $675 per ounce.  (http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/tiny-size-gold-market)

So bitcoin's mining industry, after 6 years of existence, would be worth over 13x (735,840,000,000 / 54,000,000,000 = 13.63) the WORLDWIDE gold mining industry. Over 13x. Think about all the mining companies in Alaska, Russia, China, etc. All worth 13x less than the BITCOIN mining industry.

That's the kind of crack that we're smoking here.

You don't seem to understand the difference between a temporary bubble induced price and a sustainable long term price. It is perfectly possible for the exchange price to rise far higher than the mining costs or drop far lower than existing mining costs. You also seem to be under the delusion that the block reward will be 3600 coins forever when in fact it is falling exponentially.

Less crack, more reading old chap.

2. Yes, a temporary spike can go high, but $560,000 is simply too much ground to cover. The bubble would become very fragile by the time it got to the $XX,XXX level and pop long before $560,000. Dozens of people would be becoming paper billionaires and some of them would be smart enough to hit the sell button.

not that i agree to this thread, but last year we had 3200 €/bitcoin for like 8 hours on a euro exchange with volume when price was 2xx $ everywhere else.
alot of weird things happen in the bitcoin universe!

[manselr]

$560,000 bitcoin with a 3600 daily mining reward means that the bitcoin mining industry alone would be a $735,840,000,000 per year industry. In 2007, the annual worldwide gold production was 2500 tonnes (80 million ounces) worth $54,000,000,000 at $675 per ounce.  (http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/tiny-size-gold-market)

So bitcoin's mining industry, after 6 years of existence, would be worth over 13x (735,840,000,000 / 54,000,000,000 = 13.63) the WORLDWIDE gold mining industry. Over 13x. Think about all the mining companies in Alaska, Russia, China, etc. All worth 13x less than the BITCOIN mining industry.

That's the kind of crack that we're smoking here.

You don't seem to understand the difference between a temporary bubble induced price and a sustainable long term price. It is perfectly possible for the exchange price to rise far higher than the mining costs or drop far lower than existing mining costs. You also seem to be under the delusion that the block reward will be 3600 coins forever when in fact it is falling exponentially.

Less crack, more reading old chap.

2. Yes, a temporary spike can go high, but $560,000 is simply too much ground to cover. The bubble would become very fragile by the time it got to the $XX,XXX level and pop long before $560,000. Dozens of people would be becoming paper billionaires and some of them would be smart enough to hit the sell button.

not that i agree to this thread, but last year we had 3200 €/bitcoin for like 8 hours on a euro exchange with volume when price was 2xx $ everywhere else.
alot of weird things happen in the bitcoin universe!

Was that the BTC-E incident? how many transactions actually happened for that price? I doubt it was more than a small spike, or a lot of people bought for 3k+? My btc-e alltime graph wouldn't load for some reason so i cant check it.

[gentlemand]

Was that the BTC-E incident? how many transactions actually happened for that price? I doubt it was more than a small spike, or a lot of people bought for 3k+? My btc-e alltime graph wouldn't load for some reason so i cant check it.

CampBX creamed that a while back with a $9700 or so coin. Anyway fat fingers and glitches shouldn't count. We need video evidence of 100 grandmas paying $560,000 each and then proudly showing us their wallet.

[saturn643]

When btc was less than a cent, people thought it would never reach $1. When it was $1 they said that it would never pass $10 and so goes the story

[the_reprobate]

When btc was less than a cent, people thought it would never reach $1. When it was $1 they said that it would never pass $10 and so goes the story

true and they got mad and decided to spread FUD in order to crash the price down..

[panju1]

When btc was less than a cent, people thought it would never reach $1. When it was $1 they said that it would never pass $10 and so goes the story

They didn't put a time line to it.
$560K is a lot, and it ain't happening this year.

[Amph]

When btc was less than a cent, people thought it would never reach $1. When it was $1 they said that it would never pass $10 and so goes the story

there is a bit of fallacy here, because reaching 1-10-100 isn't like reaching 1k-10k ecc...

the more high the price the harder will be to achieve it and especially to sustain it

1-10 could be realized by 1 very rich guy, 1k-10k not so much

[birr]

For ten or twenty million bitcoins to become worth hundreds of thousands of dollars each, trillions of dollars would have to go *poof*.  Which means the world economy would have to go *poof*.
Does this make sense to anybody here?  You don't go from a few billion to trillions like walking across the room.  It's more like having a hurricane blow the roof off and getting sucked up into the sky.  But people are talking about it as if it were a routine matter that fits into present thinking.  It's a fantasy.

[gentlemand]

For ten or twenty million bitcoins to be worth hundreds of thousands of dollars each, trillions of dollars would have to go *poof*.  Which means the world economy would have to go *poof*.
Does this make sense to anybody here?  You don't go from a few hundred dollars to hundreds of thousands like walking across the room.  It's more like having a hurricane blow the roof off and getting sucked up into the sky.

That's thinking market cap which is ultimately pretty meaningless. The price is set by a tiny sliver of available coins at any one time. I remember reading somewhere that $250 billion of direct buying expenditure would push the price to around $80,000 and it would probably be way, way higher as less people were willing to sell on the way up.

Just like any stock market or asset, the price would fly down the toilet if people actually tried to extract a reasonable percentage of an entire market cap's worth of value.

We see that every day in the altcoin markets. People shouting 'woo hoo' my whatevercoin hit a ten million dollar market cap. If you go over to look at the actual exchange numbers they might be able to get a couple of grand out before swatting the entire order book flat.

[ssmc2]

For ten or twenty million bitcoins to be worth hundreds of thousands of dollars each, trillions of dollars would have to go *poof*.  Which means the world economy would have to go *poof*.
Does this make sense to anybody here?  You don't go from a few hundred dollars to hundreds of thousands (multiplied by millions) like walking across the room.  It's more like having a hurricane blow the roof off and getting sucked up into the sky.  But people are talking about it as if it were a routine matter that fits into present thinking.

You don't need a trillion dollars to enter the market in order to have a trillion dollar market cap. Just sayin'.

[Biodom]

For ten or twenty million bitcoins to become worth hundreds of thousands of dollars each, trillions of dollars would have to go *poof*.  Which means the world economy would have to go *poof*.
Does this make sense to anybody here?  You don't go from a few billion to trillions like walking across the room.  It's more like having a hurricane blow the roof off and getting sucked up into the sky.  But people are talking about it as if it were a routine matter that fits into present thinking.  It's a fantasy.

Nothing has to go poof for bitcoin to get to $1 trillion (10^12) as all wealth was ~223 trillion is 2012 and probably at least 30% higher now.
So, the question is: to get to $1 tril (or ~$50k/btc) can bitcoin gather 0.5% of all wealth or 15% of wealth currently in gold?
Maybe.

[jehst]

For ten or twenty million bitcoins to become worth hundreds of thousands of dollars each, trillions of dollars would have to go *poof*.  Which means the world economy would have to go *poof*.
Does this make sense to anybody here?  You don't go from a few billion to trillions like walking across the room.  It's more like having a hurricane blow the roof off and getting sucked up into the sky.  But people are talking about it as if it were a routine matter that fits into present thinking.  It's a fantasy.

Nothing has to go poof for bitcoin to get to $1 trillion (10^12) as all wealth was ~223 trillion is 2012 and probably at least 30% higher now.
So, the question is: to get to $1 tril (or ~$50k/btc) can bitcoin gather 0.5% of all wealth or 15% of wealth currently in gold?
Maybe.

How many years did it take gold to get the the point where it was 0.5% of all wealth? To build all of its deep, deep cultural capital in both the West and the East?

[MataKhobRazi]

For ten or twenty million bitcoins to become worth hundreds of thousands of dollars each, trillions of dollars would have to go *poof*.  Which means the world economy would have to go *poof*.
Does this make sense to anybody here?  You don't go from a few billion to trillions like walking across the room.  It's more like having a hurricane blow the roof off and getting sucked up into the sky.  But people are talking about it as if it were a routine matter that fits into present thinking.  It's a fantasy.

Nothing has to go poof for bitcoin to get to $1 trillion (10^12) as all wealth was ~223 trillion is 2012 and probably at least 30% higher now.
So, the question is: to get to $1 tril (or ~$50k/btc) can bitcoin gather 0.5% of all wealth or 15% of wealth currently in gold?
Maybe.

How many years did it take gold to get the the point where it was 0.5% of all wealth? To build all of its deep, deep cultural capital in both the West and the East?

It took some decades for the dollar to be a global currency used by all the world. Why bitcoin wouldn't be able to go faster than the dollar when we know all the advantages of bitcoin. Bitcoin is made to be the currency of the world.

[jehst]

For ten or twenty million bitcoins to become worth hundreds of thousands of dollars each, trillions of dollars would have to go *poof*.  Which means the world economy would have to go *poof*.
Does this make sense to anybody here?  You don't go from a few billion to trillions like walking across the room.  It's more like having a hurricane blow the roof off and getting sucked up into the sky.  But people are talking about it as if it were a routine matter that fits into present thinking.  It's a fantasy.

Nothing has to go poof for bitcoin to get to $1 trillion (10^12) as all wealth was ~223 trillion is 2012 and probably at least 30% higher now.
So, the question is: to get to $1 tril (or ~$50k/btc) can bitcoin gather 0.5% of all wealth or 15% of wealth currently in gold?
Maybe.

How many years did it take gold to get the the point where it was 0.5% of all wealth? To build all of its deep, deep cultural capital in both the West and the East?

It took some decades for the dollar to be a global currency used by all the world. Why bitcoin wouldn't be able to go faster than the dollar when we know all the advantages of bitcoin. Bitcoin is made to be the currency of the world.

The bitcoin network can handle 2 transactions per second. It couldn't function as the currency of Jamaica.