[prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 {<-oops!} months from now (2017 Update!)

[gentlemand]

100K probably won't happen for a simple reason that it would make too many early-to-mid adopters rich, so they have to sellout beforehand, say at 1K-10K.

Quite a few early adopters are already rolling in it. I'm sure they're perfectly happy to keep a few thousand coins back for any potential super explosions.

[1714265259]

1714265259

[fallinglantern]

The last year and a half have been a fine trial by fire for people who've sat through it all. I'm sure they've felt the full spectrum of emotions. If you've lived through this then I think you're probably pretty hardened to future swings. If you're still around now you're likely to be in it for the long haul.

This exactly. The weak hands have been shaken, which is why the price is finally creeping back up.

[jehst]

Yeah, I've been sitting through it and now I'm in too deep to turn back.
I can handle a bubble to 1000 or 3000 without losing my head. Part of me will just be thinking "Finally!"

But if it goes to $10,000 to $100,000 within the next 5-6 years, I can't see myself staying cool. Even after all the long hours playing with models and various assumptions to convince myself that it's possible.

If it succeeds then by its very nature there'll never be a 'top'. It'll carry on deflating. I guess everyone needs to set themselves a goal and start spending when it reaches it. Paper profits ain't much fun. It's no good sitting in a shack eating ramen waiting for a mythical price level when there's a whole world out there waiting to be lived in.

A net worth of 2 million seems like a reasonable time to start spending.

[Cconvert2G36]

The last year and a half have been a fine trial by fire for people who've sat through it all. I'm sure they've felt the full spectrum of emotions. If you've lived through this then I think you're probably pretty hardened to future swings. If you're still around now you're likely to be in it for the long haul.

This exactly. The weak hands have been shaken, which is why the price is finally creeping back up.

Someone with a double digit cost basis may have a higher tolerance of panic than most, but they do have a number. "Weak hands have been shaken" is a relative measure, and not absolute at all. Thankfully, it seems there is a well capitalized bull whale helping the bids tread water at a higher level lately.

[jehst]

The last year and a half have been a fine trial by fire for people who've sat through it all. I'm sure they've felt the full spectrum of emotions. If you've lived through this then I think you're probably pretty hardened to future swings. If you're still around now you're likely to be in it for the long haul.

This exactly. The weak hands have been shaken, which is why the price is finally creeping back up.

Someone with a double digit cost basis may have a higher tolerance of panic than most, but they do have a number. "Weak hands have been shaken" is a relative measure, and not absolute at all. Thankfully, it seems there is a well capitalized bull whale helping the bids tread water at a higher level lately.

There would be more weakhands to shake out if we were to approach $50.

[chopstick]

Keeping more than what you need to pay bills or food or entertainment in FIAT is pointless. We are clearly going to the moon. Either you believe or you don't. FIAT is a scam. Bitcoin, at least, represents partial freedom, but it will not make society free on its own. But it is a tool that we can use for Good and bypass the banksters..

Christine Lagarde, here's one to you, you fucking cunt.

[Chef Ramsay]

Keeping more than what you need to pay bills or food or entertainment in FIAT is pointless. We are clearly going to the moon. Either you believe or you don't. FIAT is a scam. Bitcoin, at least, represents partial freedom, but it will not make society free on its own. But it is a tool that we can use for Good and bypass the banksters..

Christine Lagarde, here's one to you, you fucking cunt.

You sure have some color to you lately but I approve considering your heart is in the right place. Not that you can walk that one back but times are a changing and it should be obvious to anyone that the flipside is about to happen as time goes by. The bull market is likely starting and the rest should be fun for the rest of everyone around here that has awaited the end of the shit market.

[Amph]

It's been said a million times by the veterans, but it bears repeating: the mistake you'll make is selling too early. I've done it multiple times, even after learning that it was a bad thing to do.  I doubt your "hodl until I die" plan will work when emotion takes over.

The last year and a half have been a fine trial by fire for people who've sat through it all. I'm sure they've felt the full spectrum of emotions. If you've lived through this then I think you're probably pretty hardened to future swings. If you're still around now you're likely to be in it for the long haul.

Yeah, I've been sitting through it and now I'm in too deep to turn back.
I can handle a bubble to 1000 or 3000 without losing my head. Part of me will just be thinking "Finally!"

But if it goes to $10,000 to $100,000 within the next 5-6 years, I can't see myself staying cool. Even after all the long hours playing with models and various assumptions to convince myself that it's possible.

100K probably won't happen for a simple reason that it would make too many early-to-mid adopters rich, so they have to sellout beforehand, say at 1K-10K.

A good plan if you are positive on BTC: accumulate in 2015-2016, then starting in 2016-2017 divide your presumable stash by the number of years that equal maxumum that you'll live (have left). Say, be optimistic and go for 100. Then, cash out every year this number of BTC on your birthday, wife/GF birthday or son/daughetr birthday.
This way, you would probably enjoy it more.

it won't happen in one step, but it can happen in a few steps, it's all about floors's consolidation, if the next time we can consolidate the 1k-10k range, then the future holder will be willing to wait for a bigger price and so on, any realistic price, in possible, it is a matter of time

[dnaleor]

Yeah, I've been sitting through it and now I'm in too deep to turn back.
I can handle a bubble to 1000 or 3000 without losing my head. Part of me will just be thinking "Finally!"

But if it goes to $10,000 to $100,000 within the next 5-6 years, I can't see myself staying cool. Even after all the long hours playing with models and various assumptions to convince myself that it's possible.

If it succeeds then by its very nature there'll never be a 'top'. It'll carry on deflating. I guess everyone needs to set themselves a goal and start spending when it reaches it. Paper profits ain't much fun. It's no good sitting in a shack eating ramen waiting for a mythical price level when there's a whole world out there waiting to be lived in.

A net worth of 2 million seems like a reasonable time to start spending.

I did this calulation a year ago and came to the conclusion that with 2M it's possible to just retire early with some comfort, but nothing "over the top" (asuming your are about 30-35 years old)

[Cryddit]

As I explained to my wife when I decided to do some currency speculation in Bitcoin, "It's at least guaranteed to be free entertainment." 

Willy Bot, Silk Road, Force & Bridges, Mt.Gox implosion, Butterfly Labs, SEC regulation funnies, C&D letters, AML Fandango, Bribe-driven altcoin markets with pump&dump scams, idiots setting up gambling sites that allow cheating, Assassination politics, The Cyprus Haircut, the Greek Meltdown, the Eurozone crisis, China banning banks from dealing with it while subsidizing electricity for mining farms solely because the guys who set up the mining farms did a better job of bribery than the bankers, sites where idiots bet on stupid things so I could just take their money by betting on facts, Scammers with crypto locker, more scammers with mining botnets, more scammers still with covert mining software built into AAA games, people replacing building furnaces with mining rigs that subsidize their heating electricity, Bitcoin ATMs where people throw the "receipts" (WITH PRIVATE KEYS) in the trash because they don't understand what the hell they are.... 

Hell, we couldn't have got this much entertainment if we'd blown the entire amount on movie writers and producers.  Nor could I have made money testifying as an expert witness if this had all been Hollywood drama.

Wherever it ends up, it's a hell of a ride.

[pa]

As I explained to my wife when I decided to do some currency speculation in Bitcoin, "It's at least guaranteed to be free entertainment." 

Willy Bot, Silk Road, Force & Bridges, Mt.Gox implosion, Butterfly Labs, SEC regulation funnies, C&D letters, AML Fandango, Bribe-driven altcoin markets with pump&dump scams, idiots setting up gambling sites that allow cheating, Assassination politics, The Cyprus Haircut, the Greek Meltdown, the Eurozone crisis, China banning banks from dealing with it while subsidizing electricity for mining farms solely because the guys who set up the mining farms did a better job of bribery than the bankers, sites where idiots bet on stupid things so I could just take their money by betting on facts, Scammers with crypto locker, more scammers with mining botnets, more scammers still with covert mining software built into AAA games, people replacing building furnaces with mining rigs that subsidize their heating electricity, Bitcoin ATMs where people throw the "receipts" (WITH PRIVATE KEYS) in the trash because they don't understand what the hell they are.... 

Hell, we couldn't have got this much entertainment if we'd blown the entire amount on movie writers and producers.  Nor could I have made money testifying as an expert witness if this had all been Hollywood drama.

Wherever it ends up, it's a hell of a ride.

And a hell of an education. . .

[BitChick]

As I explained to my wife when I decided to do some currency speculation in Bitcoin, "It's at least guaranteed to be free entertainment." 

Willy Bot, Silk Road, Force & Bridges, Mt.Gox implosion, Butterfly Labs, SEC regulation funnies, C&D letters, AML Fandango, Bribe-driven altcoin markets with pump&dump scams, idiots setting up gambling sites that allow cheating, Assassination politics, The Cyprus Haircut, the Greek Meltdown, the Eurozone crisis, China banning banks from dealing with it while subsidizing electricity for mining farms solely because the guys who set up the mining farms did a better job of bribery than the bankers, sites where idiots bet on stupid things so I could just take their money by betting on facts, Scammers with crypto locker, more scammers with mining botnets, more scammers still with covert mining software built into AAA games, people replacing building furnaces with mining rigs that subsidize their heating electricity, Bitcoin ATMs where people throw the "receipts" (WITH PRIVATE KEYS) in the trash because they don't understand what the hell they are.... 

Hell, we couldn't have got this much entertainment if we'd blown the entire amount on movie writers and producers.  Nor could I have made money testifying as an expert witness if this had all been Hollywood drama.

Wherever it ends up, it's a hell of a ride.

And a hell of an education. . .

and "hell of an addiction" for some of us obsessive hodlers.

[pa]

Wherever it ends up, it's a hell of a ride.

And a hell of an education. . .

and "hell of an addiction" for some of us obsessive hodlers.

It's an irresistible blend of high-stakes speculation, outrageous drama, and participation in a worldwide community of freethinkers, oddballs, geniuses, idealists, and knaves.

[yefi]

I would be stupid happy for $10k-$50k. Somewhere around $70k I will probably go into shock and have a heart attack.

I'll be dancin' on my rooftop. I assume this will quickly result in my paralysis, but at least I'll be able to afford my health care bills.

[jehst]

Yeah, I've been sitting through it and now I'm in too deep to turn back.
I can handle a bubble to 1000 or 3000 without losing my head. Part of me will just be thinking "Finally!"

But if it goes to $10,000 to $100,000 within the next 5-6 years, I can't see myself staying cool. Even after all the long hours playing with models and various assumptions to convince myself that it's possible.

If it succeeds then by its very nature there'll never be a 'top'. It'll carry on deflating. I guess everyone needs to set themselves a goal and start spending when it reaches it. Paper profits ain't much fun. It's no good sitting in a shack eating ramen waiting for a mythical price level when there's a whole world out there waiting to be lived in.

A net worth of 2 million seems like a reasonable time to start spending.

I did this calulation a year ago and came to the conclusion that with 2M it's possible to just retire early with some comfort, but nothing "over the top" (asuming your are about 30-35 years old)

Plan to earn a 5% return after taxes. Withdraw 4%. $80,000 per year and it should keep growing.

It really wouldn't be anything to write home about. People who got into the oil game early made a lot more, but I wasn't born then.
In 1900, you had the chance to buy up cheap land in California or Texas and try to get oil. Before that you had the gold rush in 1849.

In 1995, you could've tried to start a tech company and sell it for millions. Or you could've gotten involved in the opening up of Russia. Perestroika made a bunch of fortunes. I was too young.

You could've gone to Australia to get it on the mining boom. Or went to North Dakota or Alberta to get in on the new oil boom.

Every generation has its chance. Sometimes multiple chances. The thing that makes thousands of new fortunes. I see bitcoin as our generation's chance. Bitcoin, if it succeeds, isn't just going to make Satoshi, Roger Ver, Eric Voorhees, and a couple of dozen other people rich. Cryptocurrency, if it's like oil, or gold, or steel, or railroads, or the internet, it's going to make hundreds of thousands of people wealthy.

You're going to scroll down the world's global richlist and underneath "Source of Wealth" you're going to see Cryptocurrency there pop up multiple times alongside Gold Mining, Oil Exploration, Lumber, Steel, Shipping, Automobile Manufacturing, etc.

[Biodom]

Yeah, I've been sitting through it and now I'm in too deep to turn back.
I can handle a bubble to 1000 or 3000 without losing my head. Part of me will just be thinking "Finally!"

But if it goes to $10,000 to $100,000 within the next 5-6 years, I can't see myself staying cool. Even after all the long hours playing with models and various assumptions to convince myself that it's possible.

If it succeeds then by its very nature there'll never be a 'top'. It'll carry on deflating. I guess everyone needs to set themselves a goal and start spending when it reaches it. Paper profits ain't much fun. It's no good sitting in a shack eating ramen waiting for a mythical price level when there's a whole world out there waiting to be lived in.

A net worth of 2 million seems like a reasonable time to start spending.

I did this calulation a year ago and came to the conclusion that with 2M it's possible to just retire early with some comfort, but nothing "over the top" (asuming your are about 30-35 years old)

Plan to earn a 5% return after taxes. Withdraw 4%. $80,000 per year and it should keep growing.

It really wouldn't be anything to write home about. People who got into the oil game early made a lot more, but I wasn't born then.
In 1900, you had the chance to buy up cheap land in California or Texas and try to get oil. Before that you had the gold rush in 1849.

In 1995, you could've tried to start a tech company and sell it for millions. Or you could've gotten involved in the opening up of Russia. Perestroika made a bunch of fortunes. I was too young.

You could've gone to Australia to get it on the mining boom. Or went to North Dakota or Alberta to get in on the new oil boom.

Every generation has its chance. Sometimes multiple chances. The thing that makes thousands of new fortunes. I see bitcoin as our generation's chance. Bitcoin, if it succeeds, isn't just going to make Satoshi, Roger Ver, Eric Voorhees, and a couple of dozen other people rich. Cryptocurrency, if it's like oil, or gold, or steel, or railroads, or the internet, it's going to make hundreds of thousands of people wealthy.

You're going to scroll down the world's global richlist and underneath "Source of Wealth" you're going to see Cryptocurrency there pop up multiple times alongside Gold Mining, Oil Exploration, Lumber, Steel, Shipping, Automobile Manufacturing, etc.

considering that wealthy now is at least $5 mil, then for hundreds of thousands (or, at least 100K) to be worth that much in bitcoin, it would have to go to ~$500K.
It is still possible.
Source for ~100K having at least 10BTC:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=316297.0

[jehst]

Yeah, I've been sitting through it and now I'm in too deep to turn back.
I can handle a bubble to 1000 or 3000 without losing my head. Part of me will just be thinking "Finally!"

But if it goes to $10,000 to $100,000 within the next 5-6 years, I can't see myself staying cool. Even after all the long hours playing with models and various assumptions to convince myself that it's possible.

If it succeeds then by its very nature there'll never be a 'top'. It'll carry on deflating. I guess everyone needs to set themselves a goal and start spending when it reaches it. Paper profits ain't much fun. It's no good sitting in a shack eating ramen waiting for a mythical price level when there's a whole world out there waiting to be lived in.

A net worth of 2 million seems like a reasonable time to start spending.

I did this calulation a year ago and came to the conclusion that with 2M it's possible to just retire early with some comfort, but nothing "over the top" (asuming your are about 30-35 years old)

Plan to earn a 5% return after taxes. Withdraw 4%. $80,000 per year and it should keep growing.

It really wouldn't be anything to write home about. People who got into the oil game early made a lot more, but I wasn't born then.
In 1900, you had the chance to buy up cheap land in California or Texas and try to get oil. Before that you had the gold rush in 1849.

In 1995, you could've tried to start a tech company and sell it for millions. Or you could've gotten involved in the opening up of Russia. Perestroika made a bunch of fortunes. I was too young.

You could've gone to Australia to get it on the mining boom. Or went to North Dakota or Alberta to get in on the new oil boom.

Every generation has its chance. Sometimes multiple chances. The thing that makes thousands of new fortunes. I see bitcoin as our generation's chance. Bitcoin, if it succeeds, isn't just going to make Satoshi, Roger Ver, Eric Voorhees, and a couple of dozen other people rich. Cryptocurrency, if it's like oil, or gold, or steel, or railroads, or the internet, it's going to make hundreds of thousands of people wealthy.

You're going to scroll down the world's global richlist and underneath "Source of Wealth" you're going to see Cryptocurrency there pop up multiple times alongside Gold Mining, Oil Exploration, Lumber, Steel, Shipping, Automobile Manufacturing, etc.

considering that wealthy now is at least $5 mil, then for hundreds of thousands (or, at least 100K) to be worth that much in bitcoin, it would have to go to ~$500K.
It is still possible.
Source for ~100K having at least 10BTC:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=316297.0

If bitcoin is the currency singularity, it will have to be worth that much. 

[rjclarke2000]

I agree with the above.

I love coming on this forum and speculating. It hasn't been exactly free for me as I have invested quite a bit. I know I can sell at any point but it's still in btc and it takes a while to realise it's still there and not "spent".

I have been involved with Bitcoin since the beginning of the 2013 willy bot pump and it has been a fun ride. Apart from lifting weights in the gym, wakeboarding and having fun days out with my wife and son I also enjoy the Bitcoin rollercoaster! It's more than just an investment, it's exciting. It can't fail as I will miss all this!! Even the FUDsters.

I look forward to posting success and congratulations stories in the future fellow bitcoiners.

[joe 90]

I don't think the next spike can be $560,000 14 months from the date of the OP. That's next November and would have to go up from today's price by 2240x. It's never done anything like that since it went from 10 Bitcoins a cent to $2 when it started off. Those kind of price increases would need billions of dollars throwing at Bitcoin to happen today. In the early days a few thousand dollars would pump the price crazily.

[Biodom]

I don't think the next spike can be $560,000 14 months from the date of the OP. That's next November and would have to go up from today's price by 2240x. It's never done anything like that since it went from 10 Bitcoins a cent to $2 when it started off. Those kind of price increases would need billions of dollars throwing at Bitcoin to happen today. In the early days a few thousand dollars would pump the price crazily.

He was just playing with numbers, and I get his point about black-swannish nature of bitcoin's potential valuation.
Alas, Oct 2010 to July 2011 move (10 months) was from $0.062 to $35 (I don't have numbers beforehand).
The equivalent in %% is a move from $260 to $132000, not that I expect it...just numbers.