[prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 {<-oops!} months from now (2017 Update!)

[Dafar]

derp dee derp... OK, first of all, everyone has heard about bitcoin, including my infirm 89-year-old grandmother, and yet, nobody is buying them!

Typical example of a "dumb critique", you clearly don't understand the simple fact that bitcoin isn't designed to be useful out of the box. It needs applications, use cases and infrastructure to be developed first and then it can be implemented on that foundation. Why would you expect everyone who heard about bitcoin to immediately use it? Regulation is still hazy, volatility is high (naturally from a tiny market cap), it is currently risky in terms of security and it has a long way to go with the applications to be developed for bitcoin to be truly be simple, accessible and useful to the to common people... that is when bitcoin's utility and advantages will become more clear; thus offering more incentive for people to use it. The amount of VC money going into bitcoin development and # of merchants adopting bitcoin are all steps towards that direction. Morons like you who clearly cannot grasp the big picture would say shit like that.

Couple this with the fact that bitcoin supply is inflating at ~12% a year, which is way more than the USD or any other major currency. So do the math. Tepid demand, too much supply, and no real new innovations around the corner. The market doesn't care anymore when a company adds it as a payment option. It would take nothing short of a sovereign country adopting bitcoin as its national currency to get people interested again.

Except.... lets conveniently forget the fact that there is a supply limit for bitcoin (21 million), which is not the case with the USD. The inflation rate and sell pressure from merchants + miners are far outpacing the demand at the moment, which is clearly reflected on the price. But as I said bitcoin has a long way to go before its utility can be realized.... so why don't you do the math... what if adoption increases so much that there 200 million people who use/own bitcoin.... and if there are only 21 million total bitcoins ever created, how many of those people will be able to own one whole bitcoin? Not that many, and at that point the demand may start to outpace the supply and the price will need to rise significantly. If you truly believe that this is impossible with some short-sighted logic that your grandma knows about bitcoin yet no one uses it RIGHT NOW, then I'm wasting my time replying to you. People call you a troll because your logic is stupid, I would have some respect for posters like you if there was any real thought to your arguments


"No real new innovations around the corner" ?

yeah... ok buddy. I believe you

[1714246894]

1714246894

[1714246894]

1714246894

[1714246894]

1714246894

[1714246894]

1714246894

[riiiiising]

derp dee derp... OK, first of all, everyone has heard about bitcoin, including my infirm 89-year-old grandmother, and yet, nobody is buying them!

Typical example of a "dumb critique", you clearly don't understand the simple fact that bitcoin isn't designed to be useful out of the box. It needs applications, use cases and infrastructure to be developed first and then it can be implemented on that foundation. Why would you expect everyone who heard about bitcoin to immediately use it? Regulation is still hazy, volatility is high (naturally from a tiny market cap), it is currently risky in terms of security and it has a long way to go with the applications to be developed for bitcoin to be truly be simple, accessible and useful to the to common people...

All the time I'm involved in bitcoin, I keep hearing this. We need killer app. So what is that? Seems to me it has already come, which is speculating and gambling. You can buy bitcoin, go to satoshi dice, and gamble it away in minutes. I suppose that's cool, but what else does it offer?

You can keep saying that these applications are coming, but until then we're just riding on rainbows and happy thoughts. I could buy Solyndra stock and just keep telling myself that the day is coming when everyone will install solar panels on their rooftops and we'll live in a zero emission world of peace... but until it happens (if it ever happens) we're just hoping for an outcome and nothing more.

Aren't you the guy who declared 2014 would NOT be the year of bitcoin? I thought you were smarter than this. Put down the kool aid and come to your senses!

[ssmc2]

If you truly believe that this is impossible with some short-sighted logic that your grandma knows about bitcoin yet no one uses it RIGHT NOW, then I'm wasting my time replying to you.

Yup

[Dafar]

All the time I'm involved in bitcoin, I keep hearing this. We need killer app. So what is that?

I'm not talking about a single "killer app", but it's going to need a lot of apps. Without applications the blockchain is basically what TCP/IP is to the internet... it requires applications to be useful, and yes I do think these are coming over the years.

Seems to me it has already come, which is speculating and gambling. You can buy bitcoin, go to satoshi dice, and gamble it away in minutes. I suppose that's cool, but what else does it offer? You can keep saying that these applications are coming, but until then we're just riding on rainbows and happy thoughts. I could buy Solyndra stock and just keep telling myself that the day is coming when everyone will install solar panels on their rooftops and we'll live in a zero emission world of peace... but until it happens (if it ever happens) we're just hoping for an outcome and nothing more.

Satoshi dice?? No that is not a "killer app" by any means lmao

Aren't you the guy who declared 2014 would NOT be the year of bitcoin? I thought you were smarter than this. Put down the kool aid and come to your senses!

Yes I did, so you know that I know what I'm talking about 

[riiiiising]

If you truly believe that this is impossible with some short-sighted logic that your grandma knows about bitcoin yet no one uses it RIGHT NOW, then I'm wasting my time replying to you.

Yup

OH, so you're a wise guy too? You also are waiting for Godot... ie, you want a smarter man to come along to create a killer app for bitcoin, even though you have no idea what that's going to be.

And failing that, you're waiting for a greater fool to come along to sell your purse to!

[sgbett]

You called a bear market, half way through it, and have ridden on its coat tails for a few months.

I guess that makes you one if the brightest socio-economic forecasters in our time?

Derp indeed.

LMAO. I've been calling this bear market ever since the China news in January, and really starting ringing the alarm bells soon after. You think calling the market direction is easy? Then why have you failed so fantastically at it? If I were you I would give up with bitcoin and invest in something safer, since playing the market is not for you. A few smart people succeeded with bitcoin, and many stupids failed.

No kidding. Around here, when you successfully call a bear market, you're a "troll". But when you unsuccessfully call a bull market, you were "just speculating for fun and it just happened to not go as planned this particular time." Welcome to bitcoin land.

That's because they all have brain damage and are destined to lose. They should give up before they become the laughing stock of their friends and families.

your monologue fools no-one.

You joined in September well into the bear market, you were a cheerleader for bitcoin for about a month (allegedly or so then around the start of November you flip to the bear side.

You argue about credibility? You are the epitome of the stereotypical "bad investor". You heard the "greedy when others are fearful" thing posted by your alt's namesake and did the whole contrarian thing for a bit. It all got a bit too much for you though, because as per any novice investor you were over-invested and under informed. So once the market started to look real bad, your emotions get the better of you and you call "secular bear" and run scared, trying to console yourself by labelling all around you as idiots for not doing the same, oblivious to the fact you look exactly like every bulltard that was betting the farm when the price was over $1000. Whilst anyone with a clue knew the market was over extended and was reducing their exposure to BTC because it would be foolish not to. I am not even a trader, and I was.

You sound like someone who got burned, and as a result are desperate for everyone else to be so that you can feel better about yourself.

You are a bad caricature of a terrible trader; I ad-hom because you have no argument, or position, and likely no actual investment in BTC - long or short.

Or perhaps you do... unless you sold for a loss afterwards... maybe your wife told you you had to get out. She's smart, college fund indeed. Great move, 'dad'.

I cashed in my twins' college fund this morning to buy more.

They're only 6 but very wise and mature... I told them we could buy bitcoins that will be worth at least 1 million dollars by the time they're in high school, and they agreed I should buy more now while I still can!

[riiiiising]

You called a bear market, half way through it, and have ridden on its coat tails for a few months.

I guess that makes you one if the brightest socio-economic forecasters in our time?

Derp indeed.

LMAO. I've been calling this bear market ever since the China news in January, and really starting ringing the alarm bells soon after. You think calling the market direction is easy? Then why have you failed so fantastically at it? If I were you I would give up with bitcoin and invest in something safer, since playing the market is not for you. A few smart people succeeded with bitcoin, and many stupids failed.

No kidding. Around here, when you successfully call a bear market, you're a "troll". But when you unsuccessfully call a bull market, you were "just speculating for fun and it just happened to not go as planned this particular time." Welcome to bitcoin land.

That's because they all have brain damage and are destined to lose. They should give up before they become the laughing stock of their friends and families.

your monologue fools no-one.

You joined in September well into the bear market, you were a cheerleader for bitcoin for about a month (allegedly or so then around the start of November you flip to the bear side.

You argue about credibility? You are the epitome of the stereotypical "bad investor". You heard the "greedy when others are fearful" thing posted by your alt's namesake and did the whole contrarian thing for a bit. It all got a bit too much for you though, because as per any novice investor you were over-invested and under informed. So once the market started to look real bad, your emotions get the better of you and you call "secular bear" and run scared, trying to console yourself by labelling all around you as idiots for not doing the same, oblivious to the fact you look exactly like every bulltard that was betting the farm when the price was over $1000. Whilst anyone with a clue knew the market was over extended and was reducing their exposure to BTC because it would be foolish not to. I am not even a trader, and I was.

You sound like someone who got burned, and as a result are desperate for everyone else to be so that you can feel better about yourself.

You are a bad caricature of a terrible trader; I ad-hom because you have no argument, or position, and likely no actual investment in BTC - long or short.

Or perhaps you do... unless you sold for a loss afterwards... maybe your wife told you you had to get out. She's smart, college fund indeed. Great move, 'dad'.

I cashed in my twins' college fund this morning to buy more.

They're only 6 but very wise and mature... I told them we could buy bitcoins that will be worth at least 1 million dollars by the time they're in high school, and they agreed I should buy more now while I still can!

  I'm rolling on the floor laughing here. I created this account "riiiising" because all my others were being banned for warning others against the incoming drop in price from $600, $500, $400, etc.

Yes, I was a victim of the September/October bear purge, where all bearish sentiment was being banned. Must feel pretty stupid now that you didn't listen!

The only way I was able to stick around was by pretending to be an over the top caricature of a bull, at which point I then was able to get my message across again. I have been warning others about this drop for a very long time.

[chaoman]

look at the big picture. Regardless if you buy at 270 right now or 300 or even 400, if the price of bitcoin hits the ath again you will have made a profit regardless. Just buy, hodl, and be patient.

[sgbett]

You called a bear market, half way through it, and have ridden on its coat tails for a few months.

I guess that makes you one if the brightest socio-economic forecasters in our time?

Derp indeed.

LMAO. I've been calling this bear market ever since the China news in January, and really starting ringing the alarm bells soon after. You think calling the market direction is easy? Then why have you failed so fantastically at it? If I were you I would give up with bitcoin and invest in something safer, since playing the market is not for you. A few smart people succeeded with bitcoin, and many stupids failed.

No kidding. Around here, when you successfully call a bear market, you're a "troll". But when you unsuccessfully call a bull market, you were "just speculating for fun and it just happened to not go as planned this particular time." Welcome to bitcoin land.

That's because they all have brain damage and are destined to lose. They should give up before they become the laughing stock of their friends and families.

your monologue fools no-one.

You joined in September well into the bear market, you were a cheerleader for bitcoin for about a month (allegedly or so then around the start of November you flip to the bear side.

You argue about credibility? You are the epitome of the stereotypical "bad investor". You heard the "greedy when others are fearful" thing posted by your alt's namesake and did the whole contrarian thing for a bit. It all got a bit too much for you though, because as per any novice investor you were over-invested and under informed. So once the market started to look real bad, your emotions get the better of you and you call "secular bear" and run scared, trying to console yourself by labelling all around you as idiots for not doing the same, oblivious to the fact you look exactly like every bulltard that was betting the farm when the price was over $1000. Whilst anyone with a clue knew the market was over extended and was reducing their exposure to BTC because it would be foolish not to. I am not even a trader, and I was.

You sound like someone who got burned, and as a result are desperate for everyone else to be so that you can feel better about yourself.

You are a bad caricature of a terrible trader; I ad-hom because you have no argument, or position, and likely no actual investment in BTC - long or short.

Or perhaps you do... unless you sold for a loss afterwards... maybe your wife told you you had to get out. She's smart, college fund indeed. Great move, 'dad'.

I cashed in my twins' college fund this morning to buy more.

They're only 6 but very wise and mature... I told them we could buy bitcoins that will be worth at least 1 million dollars by the time they're in high school, and they agreed I should buy more now while I still can!

  I'm rolling on the floor laughing here. I created this account "riiiising" because all my others were being banned for warning others against the incoming drop in price from $600, $500, $400, etc.

Yes, I was a victim of the September/October bear purge, where all bearish sentiment was being banned. Must feel pretty stupid now that you didn't listen!

The only way I was able to stick around was by pretending to be an over the top caricature of a bull, at which point I then was able to get my message across again. I have been warning others about this drop for a very long time.

So who are you then? Perhaps then we can validate your claim that you warned about the incoming bear market somewhere near the start of it, and not once it was nearly finished.

When you can show that you called a $200 low back in December 2013, its fairly compelling...

I like this thread. I also like drawing arbitrary lines on charts so I'm throwing this in the mix.



I think the pirate incident created some false lows, so I've moved the line a bit from the original one EM posted.

Based on nothing more than a gut feeling that it seems a bit like 2011, as others have observed, I've replicated a rough projection of the angle of attack and descent, which just happens to be a right angle (well close enough that I can shoehorn one in... if you squint a bit heheh)

So plugging all of this into the patented sgbettojector, shown here as some nice blue dashed lines, gives the end of march, and a low of just under $200.

So convincing is my analysis, that I'll be ignoring it entirely, and holding tight. I can handle riding out an ~80% decline (again) as this will at least guarantee that I won't lock in losses by trading badly.

I'm really good at that (trading badly). Which is probably another reason why this chart needs serving with a good pinch of salt

[sgbett]

how about this one....

Edward50 most likely right. Though of course it will only go to $200, where he will say it's going to $100

lo and behold just this week...

I expected it to pop below 300 and after breaking this level for the real capitulation to start, but didnt expect to fall this fast.

This is really bad news that the price isnt rebounding much at all. Volume is high and people are getting the fuck out as quick as they can.

Nobody is buying into that cheap coin bullshit.

We are going to test 200 very quickly. The capitulation looks to finally be hitting. This is worse than I even expected.

[riiiiising]

blah

So let me get this straight. You projected a guess for a low of $200 (though you expected it to happen last spring) and you also predicted that we'd be at $560,000 by later this year? Did you honestly think that both could come true? Or just covering your bases for either outcome, so you could at least come back to this forum and try to save some face?

[sgbett]

blah

So let me get this straight. You projected a guess for a low of $200 (though you expected it to happen last spring) and you also predicted that we'd be at $560,000 by later this year? Did you honestly think that both could come true? Or just covering your bases for either outcome, so you could at least come back to this forum and try to save some face?

Instead of trying to descredit me why don't you reveal your genius for all to see?

Here's a "predict the price at christmas" thread from back in november when the price was around $900 and riiiiising...

$720

The average guess was over $2k, the actual price on 25th $660... on boxing day it traded at $720. OMG another terrible call! Probably invalidated for being a day out

You keep saying I'm an idiot and haven't called anything right, and the only thing you can point to is something that hasn't happened yet? Something that isn't even a prediction of specific price but a general theory on how price will behave if we get mass adoption (still not read the first post huh?)

I'm still waiting for you to admit who you are so that we can all see from your post history how early and accurately *you* called this bear market...

[riiiiising]

blah

So let me get this straight. You projected a guess for a low of $200 (though you expected it to happen last spring) and you also predicted that we'd be at $560,000 by later this year? Did you honestly think that both could come true? Or just covering your bases for either outcome, so you could at least come back to this forum and try to save some face?

Instead of trying to descredit me why don't you reveal your genius for all to see?

Here's a "predict the price at christmas" thread from back in november when the price was around $900 and riiiiising...

$720

The average guess was over $2k, the actual price on 25th $660... on boxing day it traded at $720. OMG another terrible call! Probably invalidated for being a day out

You keep saying I'm an idiot and haven't called anything right, and the only thing you can point to is something that hasn't happened yet? Something that isn't even a prediction of specific price but a general theory on how price will behave if we get mass adoption (still not read the first post huh?)

I'm still waiting for you to admit who you are so that we can all see from your post history how early and accurately *you* called this bear market...

You must be crazy. I'm not going to reveal my true identity, because I'll probably just be banned again. There are still many people on this forum who are butt hurt that all my so called saber rattling turned out to be spot on analysis. I don't care how many people drew lines on graphs to present their ideas of support and trend lines... it all turned out to be bullshit. You need to read between the lines to figure out where this market is going, and that's something that you still need to learn for yourself. I'm real impressed that you made one correct guess back in 2013, but that was a long time ago.

You've gotta accept that if you create a new thread with a prediction of $560,000 by end of 2015, somebody is going to call you out on it.

[asdlolciterquit]

blah

So let me get this straight. You projected a guess for a low of $200 (though you expected it to happen last spring) and you also predicted that we'd be at $560,000 by later this year? Did you honestly think that both could come true? Or just covering your bases for either outcome, so you could at least come back to this forum and try to save some face?

Instead of trying to descredit me why don't you reveal your genius for all to see?

Here's a "predict the price at christmas" thread from back in november when the price was around $900 and riiiiising...

$720

The average guess was over $2k, the actual price on 25th $660... on boxing day it traded at $720. OMG another terrible call! Probably invalidated for being a day out

You keep saying I'm an idiot and haven't called anything right, and the only thing you can point to is something that hasn't happened yet? Something that isn't even a prediction of specific price but a general theory on how price will behave if we get mass adoption (still not read the first post huh?)

I'm still waiting for you to admit who you are so that we can all see from your post history how early and accurately *you* called this bear market...

one important question: after 4 months, do you think that what you wrote can really happen? or something have changed?

[eboard10]

My prediction, a spike to ±$4000 within the next 9 months. Then another deep and long correction.

I have to say that compared to the OP, your prediction is pathetically small and unattractive. Furthermore it's just a guess. It needs math and graphs and stuff to be a prediction.

Here ya go.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=812637.msg10046953#msg10046953

[sgbett]

blah

So let me get this straight. You projected a guess for a low of $200 (though you expected it to happen last spring) and you also predicted that we'd be at $560,000 by later this year? Did you honestly think that both could come true? Or just covering your bases for either outcome, so you could at least come back to this forum and try to save some face?

Instead of trying to descredit me why don't you reveal your genius for all to see?

Here's a "predict the price at christmas" thread from back in november when the price was around $900 and riiiiising...

$720

The average guess was over $2k, the actual price on 25th $660... on boxing day it traded at $720. OMG another terrible call! Probably invalidated for being a day out

You keep saying I'm an idiot and haven't called anything right, and the only thing you can point to is something that hasn't happened yet? Something that isn't even a prediction of specific price but a general theory on how price will behave if we get mass adoption (still not read the first post huh?)

I'm still waiting for you to admit who you are so that we can all see from your post history how early and accurately *you* called this bear market...

You must be crazy. I'm not going to reveal my true identity, because I'll probably just be banned again. There are still many people on this forum who are butt hurt that all my so called saber rattling turned out to be spot on analysis. I don't care how many people drew lines on graphs to present their ideas of support and trend lines... it all turned out to be bullshit. You need to read between the lines to figure out where this market is going, and that's something that you still need to learn for yourself. I'm real impressed that you made one correct guess back in 2013, but that was a long time ago.

You've gotta accept that if you create a new thread with a prediction of $560,000 by end of 2015, somebody is going to call you out on it.

You can't figure out where the market is going. I can't. That's something *you* still need to learn.

I see you still haven't read the first post so I'll quote the relevant parts:

So the number I have picked is probably not that accurate. The magnitude, and the colossal unbeleivableness of it, is what is important. That's the black swan that nobody sees coming. That 90% of the people in the world will miss 90% of the bitcoin.

Once again the figures aren't right, its the magnitude of the moves you might have to go through that is the message.

and as the thread develops just to make sure people understand:

The values aren't really supposed to be accurate, both time and price axis are kind of arbitrary (as per assumptions in the first post of 10years and 300k) it's more about the scale of movement that has to happen to reach an arbitrary end price based on this kind of model. In the chart I posted as an example though the x axis is days. So ther is about 3650 in 10 years give or take

The actual outcomes could be very different depending on whether a cycle lines up with the max rate of adoption in the s-curve. What I posted was just a shot in the dark based on one set of inputs. A surprising one admittedly but it shows the kind of crazy range of possibilities.

None of this means I don't still think it *could* go to zero(ish) because if you stop forgetting that then you start behaving irrationally. It just means that I hadn't considered all the possibilities. That I ahd kind of dismissed the crazy talk of btc at 1million dollars, as being a bit loony. I think I was mistaken to close off my mind to that possibility, because if it were to ever happen I would be unprepared.

I had a look on log scale it's a bit jiggly, but I'll post it up in a bit

and just in case you are still in doubt...

Also continuing to mischarecterise my posts as advice to buy, reveals the shallowness of your thiught process.

Well, i would guess there are only so many interpretations for a topic called "[prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 months from now".
I mean, what is the topic supposed to imply?

Why goat my dear fellow, it's wild speculation, implication is in the eye of the beholder. (Not to mention its just the click bait to get people to read the post! You know how it works)

It does represent my belief, that buying and or holding is a good plan (it's what I'm actually doing) but as to whether that is appropriate that's up to the individual reading it.

Now if someone's goal is to make short term profit then this is not the post for them. That's not my goal and I do consistently reiterate that. My goal is to invest a reasonable amount of cash (that I can well afford to lose) in a risky asset class that I happen to think is a game changer. When it looks "cheap" to me I pick up a bit more.

Now, that's a totally digferent agenda to that the chorus of sellers is pushing, but I think it's agood agenda. It's also transparent and honest. I will weather the diatribe all the way to $30 if I have to.

[Dafar]

sgbett is that you in the picture? you look rich

[sgbett]

one important question: after 4 months, do you think that what you wrote can really happen? or something have changed?

as dark is it looks right now price wise, I still think a lot is happening in terms of adoption, stuff we could have only dreamed of a few years ago (Paypal, Microsoft) so unless something comes up to spoil that - malicious or otherwise - I still think that mass adoption can happen.

I think that will take time, but I think that if it starts to go mainstream then we will see huge swings in dollar valuation of BTC as outlined in OP.

The (time) length of cycles seems to be increasing the last bear market was long. The magnitude of moves up seem to correlate to the length - necessarily so. A bigger move requires more time.

So lets say this is the bottom around $300, and instead of 3 month run up we have a 9 month one, and instead of a x20 move we have a x400 one then all of a sudden $120k is totally possible. throw in the etf and wall st involvement, where money is like water? 580k by november .... I wouldn't bet against it!

(and for those that miss the implied counter position by that statement I wouldn't risk that much betting *for* it either.)

[sgbett]

sgbett is that you in the picture? you look rich

it is me! far from rich though

edit: maybe i'm wrong though, http://www.globalrichlist.com list puts me in the top 1% hehe (by income I should add! wealth, not so much)

[xDan]

I created this account "riiiising" because all my others were being banned for warning others against the incoming drop in price from $600, $500, $400, etc.

...

The only way I was able to stick around was by pretending to be an over the top caricature of a bull, at which point I then was able to get my message across again. I have been warning others about this drop for a very long time.

so "riiiiising" == "falllling"

I called it:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=865366.msg9604488#msg9604488

And for context on how he plays both sides and runs his sockpuppets:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=865366.0