Critical Levels - EW analysis

[Afrikoin]

That's one scenario, that fits with what I wrote 4 days ago on this page, but the evolution of the bid sum / ask sum suggests a bullish move.
It is possible that the market moves not twice as slow, but thrice as slow than in June - July 2014, in which case a moderate rally can happen
during the next days up to ~270$, similar to the ~665$ on July 1st 2014. In which case the equivalent of the 275$ bottom (October 5th) would be ~111$.

Cant rule out $250, $260, $270. but, my interest primarily is whether there is more down to come ie sub 200. IMO, any upward move will be limited.

^ Or, you know, the 1.2mn btc volume week of January was the capitulation after all, and the most that'll happen now in terms of further capitulation is hammering out a floor around 200 on lackluster selling enthusiasm.

But, nah. That's not even an option, huh.

What of the markedly low volumes observed vs the run up to $303?

[1714782783]

1714782783

[oda.krell]

^ Or, you know, the 1.2mn btc volume week of January was the capitulation after all, and the most that'll happen now in terms of further capitulation is hammering out a floor around 200 on lackluster selling enthusiasm.

But, nah. That's not even an option, huh.

According to EW no that is not possible 

Excellent point. And since this is an EW thread (and a pretty good one, by my own very limited understanding of the matter), I'll duck out. Never like it when people derail my threads, so I'm not going to be "that guy"

/OT

[celebreze32]

^ Or, you know, the 1.2mn btc volume week of January was the capitulation after all, and the most that'll happen now in terms of further capitulation is hammering out a floor around 200 on lackluster selling enthusiasm.

But, nah. That's not even an option, huh.

According to EW no that is not possible 

Someone said there are only a few hard ridged EW rules on the way up and no rules on the way down. Was he  wrong, are there ridged EW rules on the way down too?

A number of top EW guys said we had to go below ~266 when we were at 600, and were ridiculed for it. If they were basing their predictions on rules for the way down then what were they?

[nanobrain]

Since chessnut has turned bullish lately,

Im only moderately short-medium term bullish, in terms of $100 targets I am still bearish so I havent 'turned', but really we need more evidence for the larger count whatever it is atm.

Just "WOW".

Last time I checked this thread three months back Chessnut was still crying "breakout" after more than 14 months of a bear market -- now he's claiming to be bearish.  All the posts are here/Adam's thread/Trading View -- a steady stream of incorrect postulations.

I can't really remember what it was like being 20/21 (it was so long ago)...but I'm pretty sure I didn't wake up everyday and reinvent myself and my beliefs...and certainly not with such a staggering lack of self-awareness. 

Shame on the rest of you for encouraging this level of self-delusion.

[Spink]

Last time I checked this thread three months back Chessnut was still crying "breakout" after more than 14 months of a bear market -- now he's claiming to be bearish.

Read Chessnut quote once again and closely, please.

Shame on the rest of you for encouraging this level of self-delusion.

I hope i can live with it.

[HeliKopterBen]

^ Or, you know, the 1.2mn btc volume week of January was the capitulation after all, and the most that'll happen now in terms of further capitulation is hammering out a floor around 200 on lackluster selling enthusiasm.

But, nah. That's not even an option, huh.

According to EW no that is not possible 

Someone said there are only a few hard ridged EW rules on the way up and no rules on the way down. Was he  wrong, are there ridged EW rules on the way down too?

Yes he was wrong.  I was being a bit facetious with my comment.

A number of top EW guys said we had to go below ~266 when we were at 600, and were ridiculed for it. If they were basing their predictions on rules for the way down then what were they?

There are plenty of resources available on the Internet to learn EW.

[Tzupy]

^ Or, you know, the 1.2mn btc volume week of January was the capitulation after all, and the most that'll happen now in terms of further capitulation is hammering out a floor around 200 on lackluster selling enthusiasm.

But, nah. That's not even an option, huh.

No, it is an option, I am looking at 2 bearish and one bullish scenarios. The bullish one seems rather shoehorned now.
If this mini rally will succeed to break 305$ and hold above, I promise to declare the bear market over.

[chessnut]

i don't post charts but it could be WXY or ABC and it could be topping right now, we have pretty clear 5 waver with divergence between 3 and 5 for some C probably

Whatever the local count is, the larger count is moderately bullish. Its not impulsive to the downside. Notice how stamp bottomed on a lower low than china, that looked like a larger wave C terminating, it would imply that china bottomed on a failure.




Its a fair triangle and a fitting failure, wave iii went surprisingly far (too far). This is when failure v's occur.

We are in an impulse to the upside, (not exactly the size I expected but none the less). Wave ii of this retrace was very shallow, so when wave iii tops, which could be here or fairly higher than here, we can expect a sharp wave iv down before a wave v might take us higher, I couldn't guess how high.

We are right now testing the log downtrend line. If this breaks in style which it sure could it might be time to assume we are going to produce a larger wave B that I have talked about before. Of coarse we will continue to supervise the local count in case of a false breakout and wave ii, but things have potential to become very interesting because of this price action.

[h3speros]

good call chessnut, but how about this (B) being WXY so in that chart A=>W, B=>X and now we would have completed (a) of Y

[RyNinDaCleM]

If this breaks in style which it sure could it might be time to assume we are going to produce a larger wave B...

Seconded!
But I still like this for now


From here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=812637.msg11249028#msg11249028

This is the leading diagonal I spoke of. Clear and valid 5-3-5-3-5. Typical retracement would be 50-61.8% but it could go anywhere in that grey box. Note the dates

Interesting, didn't know you could project time as well with fibs. The date given would also allow for daily SMA200 to reach ~260-level, which happens to be where luc identifies main resistance.

Shame we'll have to grind through an entire month for a measly $30 move though, but at least the long term outlook is made even more bearish with that count

A whole month... But it is close

[podyx]

i don't post charts but it could be WXY or ABC and it could be topping right now, we have pretty clear 5 waver with divergence between 3 and 5 for some C probably

Whatever the local count is, the larger count is moderately bullish. Its not impulsive to the downside. Notice how stamp bottomed on a lower low than china, that looked like a larger wave C terminating, it would imply that china bottomed on a failure.




Its a fair triangle and a fitting failure, wave iii went surprisingly far (too far). This is when failure v's occur.

We are in an impulse to the upside, (not exactly the size I expected but none the less). Wave ii of this retrace was very shallow, so when wave iii tops, which could be here or fairly higher than here, we can expect a sharp wave iv down before a wave v might take us higher, I couldn't guess how high.

We are right now testing the log downtrend line. If this breaks in style which it sure could it might be time to assume we are going to produce a larger wave B that I have talked about before. Of coarse we will continue to supervise the local count in case of a false breakout and wave ii, but things have potential to become very interesting because of this price action.

Seems to go well with the information I was informed about

Consolidation till june 20th, after that pump to $260 and then dump to $220, after that there may be another bubble.

Classified inside sources

[chessnut]

Seems to go well with the information I was informed about

Consolidation till june 20th, after that pump to $260 and then dump to $220, after that there may be another bubble.

Classified inside sources

M8, could you inform us how you came to be informed about that information?

good call chessnut, but how about this (B) being WXY so in that chart A=>W, B=>X and now we would have completed (a) of Y

It could be in theory but if this is a of y then I imagine c of y would break the log down trend very thoroughly as we are knocking on the door, I think that could easily lead to a fair correction of the entire downtrend, that WXY would then probably be only one part of some monsterous complex B. I mentioned a while ago that we could rally to high numbers from this base however postponing capitulation (in theory). In terms of EW it's disappointing because we are offered no evidence that the down trend is over.

[oda.krell]

^ Doubt it'll stop at 260 right now, to be followed by a dump to 220. Pretty well supported so far by volume and price/volume metrics. That said, we're in FOMO territory, and 260 is likely resistance for now. Retracement to 245-250, then one more push up above 260 more likely, imo.

EDIT missed the shorter time frame volume divs. So, likely to stop here, but unlikely imo to go back to 220 w/o at least another attempt to break 260, that's what I'm trying to clumsily express

[SmoothCurves]

Seems to go well with the information I was informed about

Consolidation till june 20th, after that pump to $260 and then dump to $220, after that there may be another bubble.

Classified inside sources

M8, could you inform us how you came to be informed about that information?

good call chessnut, but how about this (B) being WXY so in that chart A=>W, B=>X and now we would have completed (a) of Y

It could be in theory but if this is a of y then I imagine c of y would break the log down trend very thoroughly as we are knocking on the door, I think that could easily lead to a fair correction of the entire downtrend, that WXY would then probably be only one part of some monsterous complex B. I mentioned a while ago that we could rally to high numbers from this base however postponing capitulation (in theory). In terms of EW it's disappointing because we are offered no evidence that the down trend is over.

User 100k on Trading View seems to think we're on our way to a $21k ATH. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/srgBa4UY-BTCUSD-BITSTAMP-EW-Daily-Count-Triangle-count-removed/

[h3speros]

Seems to go well with the information I was informed about

Consolidation till june 20th, after that pump to $260 and then dump to $220, after that there may be another bubble.

Classified inside sources

M8, could you inform us how you came to be informed about that information?

good call chessnut, but how about this (B) being WXY so in that chart A=>W, B=>X and now we would have completed (a) of Y

It could be in theory but if this is a of y then I imagine c of y would break the log down trend very thoroughly as we are knocking on the door, I think that could easily lead to a fair correction of the entire downtrend, that WXY would then probably be only one part of some monsterous complex B. I mentioned a while ago that we could rally to high numbers from this base however postponing capitulation (in theory). In terms of EW it's disappointing because we are offered no evidence that the down trend is over.

User 100k on Trading View seems to think we're on our way to a $21k ATH. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/srgBa4UY-BTCUSD-BITSTAMP-EW-Daily-Count-Triangle-count-removed/

This is an EW-thread, lol

[chessnut]

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/srgBa4UY-BTCUSD-BITSTAMP-EW-Daily-Count-Triangle-count-removed/[/url]

This is an EW-thread, lol

lol yeah... not exactly plausible (in terms of EW  ), but I hope he's right  

We are in an impulse to the upside, (not exactly the size I expected but none the less). Wave ii of this retrace was very shallow, so when wave iii tops, which could be here or fairly higher than here, we can expect a sharp wave iv down before a wave v might take us higher, I couldn't guess how high.

We are right now testing the log downtrend line. If this breaks in style which it sure could it might be time to assume we are going to produce a larger wave B that I have talked about before. Of coarse we will continue to supervise the local count in case of a false breakout and wave ii, but things have potential to become very interesting because of this price action.

This, it seems, is where we are now. It could truncate to avoid the log trend line, or it could reach a normal projection, perhaps to around 1670 or so. lets see what happens after that, could get interesting again.

[chessnut]

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCCNY/VkvVxgkT-BTCCNY-EW-Analysis-Bullish-form-following-corrective-ABC/

BTCCNY has made a run for it, briefly breaking out of the grand log down trend but is now consolidating below. The form of the drop is clearly corrective, suggesting that there is more to come in any case. The drop could be a iv, ii or x wave. Following the drop a five wave form has risen and corrected to 70%, typical of a primary wave correction. Since this is following an abc correction, a guideline is that it will retrace the abc by at least 62% at the least in the most bearish plausible count, this is aiming at the high 1500s and the low 1600s. The implications of breaking up out of the grand log trend are unclear but indeed interesting. I would like to introduce the idea that this is wave 1 of a triangle thrust, more on that later, but I think the attitude towards trading here should only be moderately bullish.

Proof of breakout by a whisker, drawing it over the 3k yuan top is a very charitable argument indeed.



the same snaplock line,

[meh32123]

To me it looks more like the log trend is still holding! just a slight overthrow.

[chessnut]

To me it looks more like the log trend is still holding! just a slight overthrow.

Yes of coarse it is, but it is important to take note that it has punctured it because of the way it is behaving below at this point in time.

[oda.krell]

A pretty fine-grained momentum confluence signal I track, that last flipped to sell around March 15 (@285) flipped again, to buy, that is, during the last run-up... didn't notice it until now. Interesting times ahead. I'm not in a very bullish mood lately for the mid-term, so I personally more-than-half expect us to need to stamp out ~200 as a bottom at least one more time, or go below if support fails, but for now, there appears to some room to the upside. /shrug