Critical Levels - EW analysis

[RyNinDaCleM]

Is there a certain formula that gives you an idea that this wave iii would go to 1900? Sorry for the newb question, still learning the basics of EW.

Learn about using Fibonacci in conjunction with Elliott Wave
http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-guide.htm

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[h3speros]

Hey guys,

I suspected that this would be a bear trap. It seems waiting for some action was a good idea.

Now commencing is an impulsve count, targeting original upside targets. Lets give it some time and see how it unfolds.

Ill add that chasing the price is never wise, this time no exception. we should get a fair dip and signal.

This is most likely a correction like paypal was. Could be 2 of V if that recent fall from 378 was 1 of V.

Don't you think you have little too much bull bias in you?

"Sell the News" works usually.

imo not so obviously this time, but yes, good reminder this one

DISCLAIMER, i have a bit bearish bias in me

I dont believe this rally has anything to do with news, its a BIG publicity stunt and big wealth transfer is occuring globally. There is no news to sell. Its not like the paypal rally at all because its gradual and persistent, and we have compounded a lot more evidence over time to support it. If I could see a good bearish count I would track it beside but I dont.

Sorry, yep it is not like paypal rally, i just meant that you have a bit too much bull bias in you again. What big wealth transfer btw? One could think grexit to be the news this time, but in a longer time frame, but i don't really focus on news that much. Ryn has showed in this thread a good count or then we might be in a longer correction, but to declare that the bottom would be in, that is way too early and imo not likely.

[chessnut]

Sorry, yep it is not like paypal rally, i just meant that you have a bit too much bull bias in you again. What big wealth transfer btw? One could think grexit to be the news this time, but in a longer time frame, but i don't really focus on news that much. Ryn has showed in this thread a good count or then we might be in a longer correction, but to declare that the bottom would be in, that is way too early and imo not likely.

bias = predjudice. I have a lot of evidence in terms of EW that this is bullish. People are ignoring the breaking of the log trend line like it never happened, but this is exactly what we look for to spot a reversal of one higher degree in both impulses and ABC. The form of the current uptrend is bullish. When I say wealth transfer Im talking about the chinese stock market and what that implies. already a generation of chinese investors have been wiped out of the chinese stock market, the aftermath of 2008 is the biggest wealth transfer in the history of the world by a mile even inflation adjusted. I havent declared the bottom is in, but go figure, it could be a correction or a bottom and they will both produce significant moves as a guideline.

I didnt see ryans count, but the wave ii count has expired this is not a running flat.

[chessnut]

chance of this

[chessnut]

We have rallied off the 62% fib in the mid 1650 as expected in wave ii of any primary wave. While the price still has some freedom within wave ii context this is probably the crux of the move arriving if the count is correct, and I dont see any appealing alternatives. Be prepared for a very bullish move in the coming days that could easily reach 1900.

Sometimes you have to toot your own horn they say  

Even though I wasnt nearly bullish enough!


EDIT.  that spike to 2300 yuan was uncalled for, too far too fast, this will probably form a wave v considerably lower before a steady march towards 2300 and possibly up to the upper 2k yuan range.

[elasticband]

We have rallied off the 62% fib in the mid 1650 as expected in wave ii of any primary wave. While the price still has some freedom within wave ii context this is probably the crux of the move arriving if the count is correct, and I dont see any appealing alternatives. Be prepared for a very bullish move in the coming days that could easily reach 1900.

Sometimes you have to toot your own horn they say  

Even though I wasnt nearly bullish enough!


EDIT.  that spike to 2300 yuan was uncalled for, too far too fast, this will probably form a wave v considerably lower before a steady march towards 2300 and possibly up to the upper 2k yuan range.

toot away chestnut, you've nailed this one against that chart!

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Wow, I used to doubt chessnut but he really does know his stuff. He's been absolutely spot on lately. The man deserves some kind of recognition for his superior knowledge.

[podyx]

We have rallied off the 62% fib in the mid 1650 as expected in wave ii of any primary wave. While the price still has some freedom within wave ii context this is probably the crux of the move arriving if the count is correct, and I dont see any appealing alternatives. Be prepared for a very bullish move in the coming days that could easily reach 1900.

img]https://www.tradingview.com/x/rKb8gW8N/[/img]

Sometimes you have to toot your own horn they say  

Even though I wasnt nearly bullish enough!


EDIT.  that spike to 2300 yuan was uncalled for, too far too fast, this will probably form a wave v considerably lower before a steady march towards 2300 and possibly up to the upper 2k yuan range.

Considerably lower? 1500 or something??

[chessnut]

Considerably lower? 1500 or something??

considerably lower than 2300 not current price.... say 2000

[Spink]

considerably lower than 2300 not current price.... say 2000

I think we should take a look to bitstamp or bitfinex. They didnt went so high as chinese (because of less selling ltc volume) and allow to see btc waves more clearly.

[chessnut]

considerably lower than 2300 not current price.... say 2000

I think we should take a look to bitstamp or bitfinex. They didnt went so high as chinese (because of less selling ltc volume) and allow to see btc waves more clearly.

I agree with that especially for fib projections although they should move together from now on

[Dilla]

Excellent work, chessnut!

[bigtimespaghetti]

Excellent work, chessnut!

Yep. glad to have been following this thread!

[chessnut]

Thanks for the kind words everyone

looking at BFX now as china is a bit distorted, this could be yet another 1-2. While wave 2 might not be done, it looks like we are about to see truly the largest portion of the uptrend unfold. Targets in china are around 2000 yuan. On Bfx, at a guesstimate, $320-330 is achievable in the coming 48 hours or so.

[ssmc2]

Do you still think we could reach above 400 on the 5th wave Chessnut?

[chessnut]

Do you still think we could reach above 400 on the 5th wave Chessnut?

The largest impulse I have described could reach 400 possibly on wave (5), but we are in 3 of that impulse now, give it a few days/weeks. I think more likely that we top in the upper 300s but not 400. I expect that retraces will be shallow from here on having had deep retraces all the way to this point.

[ssmc2]

Do you still think we could reach above 400 on the 5th wave Chessnut?

The largest impulse I have described could reach 400 possibly on wave (5), but we are in 3 of that impulse now, give it a few days/weeks. I expect that retraces will be shallow from here on having had deep retraces all the way to this point.

Gotcha 

[Tzupy]

Do you still think we could reach above 400 on the 5th wave Chessnut?

The largest impulse I have described could reach 400 possibly on wave (5), but we are in 3 of that impulse now, give it a few days/weeks. I think more likely that we top in the upper 300s but not 400. I expect that retraces will be shallow from here on having had deep retraces all the way to this point.

There is a (long term) bearish scenario that would reach about 400$ in about a month, but until now I didn't take it seriously because it means the market is moving 4 times slower then in April - June 2014.
And it would mean the bear market to last past the block reward halving, which doesn't make sense. I post these comparison charts (6h in 2014, 24 h now) with a month of free space, let's see...

[Afrikoin]

Abiut time for Ryan's log update?

[chessnut]

Thanks for the kind words everyone

looking at BFX now as china is a bit distorted, this could be yet another 1-2. While wave 2 might not be done, it looks like we are about to see truly the largest portion of the uptrend unfold. Targets in china are around 2000 yuan. On Bfx, at a guesstimate, $320-330 is achievable in the coming 48 hours or so.

If this count was correct then the local count having about 5 degrees of nested 1-2s is absolutely ridiculously bullish. To be conservative Im going to assume we are past half way of the crunch, although with significant developments in the EZ tomorrow, who knows!

Ive said before that this rally would be relentless with shallow retracements for the second half because we have only had deep wave ii's up to this point. Forget about short scalps, running flats could .... run you flat.