Critical Levels - EW analysis

[chessnut]

Do you have some subscription service for your calls? I would sign up on a monthly basis.

On a different note, RyanDeClem did exactly what you just did on this thread. Lured everyone with very good calls -- almost perfect. A honey trap. Then closed the thread after a run of good counts.

You have a knack for picking patterns and thanks for sharing. Made a donation as well. Enjoy!

Hi there,

you are a legend, thanks!

seems like this thread might go on a while longer. I dont have a subscription service as such although I am likely going to be offering my services to AKW analytics. Ill let you know how that works.

I really dont mean to lure anyone into a trap of coarse   Im trying to help people stop losing so much money selling at the bottom and buying the top, and the thread also serves as my trading log which keeps me on the ball.

i love this thread, please keep it up

Thanks for your appreciation  

Thanks chessnut!  Please keep up the thread.  I learned so much from this, and will contribute my own ideas when I have a better grasp on this stuff.  I made a donation and will continue to donate if you keep posting your analysis.

Thanks so much for donating, keeps me energised!

I wouldnt expect anyone to donate unless they have really made money from my trades. I think thats a sustainable arrangement

[Arv1e]

Hi Chessnut,

I have commented before and been reading your thread on a daily basis although have little understanding of EW but its only a small step to sit down and start reading.

I bought into BTC for the long term and sitting on about 125BTC  at $350

As an investor I am happy to sit on it for the long term however it would be nice to do some scalping whilst it slowly rises.

My main problem is that my current exchnge has only recently started and the bid/offer spread is often $12/15. Its UK based Coinfloor.

We are struggling to get UK money onto the exchanges as it can take a week to deposit/withdraw and then I had a thought.

Maybe I should transefer my `BTC to an exchange with small margins. I know how you value the china exchanges over bitstamp etc due to the depth of liquidity.

Could you suggest an exchange i should consider which would help make scalping more viable whilst running a business modely that you trust.

TY

[chessnut]

Hi Chessnut,

I have commented before and been reading your thread on a daily basis although have little understanding of EW but its only a small step to sit down and start reading.

I bought into BTC for the long term and sitting on about 125BTC  at $350

As an investor I am happy to sit on it for the long term however it would be nice to do some scalping whilst it slowly rises.

My main problem is that my current exchnge has only recently started and the bid/offer spread is often $12/15. Its UK based Coinfloor.

We are struggling to get UK money onto the exchanges as it can take a week to deposit/withdraw and then I had a thought.

Maybe I should transefer my `BTC to an exchange with small margins. I know how you value the china exchanges over bitstamp etc due to the depth of liquidity.

Could you suggest an exchange i should consider which would help make scalping more viable whilst running a business modely that you trust.

TY

Hi Arv1e,

cant go past OKcoin international to trade bitcoin futures, and I hear Okcoin.cny is pretty good for the spot market. I left BFX seeking liquidity and thats where I found it. I also used to use BTC-E. great exchange, quite a bit smaller, but I totally trust them. I believe they now allow easy fiat withdraws through visa too.

Of coarse this is more than a scalping thread. I post larger views too which have been fairly accurate. The reason I love to scalp is because using EW one may try to catch a large wave on high leverage by catching smaller waves at large turning points. EW analysis offers second to none strategies of doing this. Scalping is really stressful and not for most people! but maybe I can help with profit taking and risk management decisions through my scalping edge.

[chessnut]

Yes, it is behaving how I want it.

now the count is clear, we had a fifth wave blowout, absolute beauty. but just as I said before it happened, we need to return to the territory of wave (((iv))). This is within the red circle. hopefully we will get a nice buy signal there. no need to catch the knife.

Its a bumpy road from here, but until we reach around 2900, or about 450-480, we should not pass this level again (2470, or about $403).

[Carra23]

Yes, it is behaving how I want it.

now the count is clear, we had a fifth wave blowout, absolute beauty. but just as I said before it happened, we need to return to the territory of wave (((iv))). This is within the red circle. hopefully we will get a nice buy signal there. no need to catch the knife.

Its a bumpy road from here, but until we reach around 2900, or about 450-480, we should not pass this level again (2470, or about $403).

Which means the 2xx dream is dead.

How high can it go? Or is it too early to tell?

[chessnut]

Yes, it is behaving how I want it.

now the count is clear, we had a fifth wave blowout, absolute beauty. but just as I said before it happened, we need to return to the territory of wave (((iv))). This is within the red circle. hopefully we will get a nice buy signal there. no need to catch the knife.

Its a bumpy road from here, but until we reach around 2900, or about 450-480, we should not pass this level again (2470, or about $403).

Which means the 2xx dream is dead.

How high can it go? Or is it too early to tell?

see italics. we may still get 2xx, its possible, but we need to go to 2900 first  

how high can it go? I dunno! could go very high! might stall at 1k. we should know when it turns though. Will be a fun wave to ride.

[Carra23]

Yes, it is behaving how I want it.

now the count is clear, we had a fifth wave blowout, absolute beauty. but just as I said before it happened, we need to return to the territory of wave (((iv))). This is within the red circle. hopefully we will get a nice buy signal there. no need to catch the knife.

Its a bumpy road from here, but until we reach around 2900, or about 450-480, we should not pass this level again (2470, or about $403).

Which means the 2xx dream is dead.

How high can it go? Or is it too early to tell?

see italics. we may still get 2xx, its possible, but we need to go to 2900 first  

how high can it go? I dunno! could go very high! might stall at 1k. we should know when it turns though. Will be a fun wave to ride.

2900, then 2xx, then 1k. If you end up being correct you will be rolling in money. Those are huge swings.

[chessnut]

2900, then 2xx, then 1k. If you end up being correct you will be rolling in money. Those are huge swings.

I will be tracking both counts. This impulsive upwards could be wave c (IV) or wave I (   ) of the next bubble.

wether it is I or C we can still potentially short the top of wave c or I. if it goes to 2xx, thatd be great. If it doesnt, there will be signs to close out short and go long before we make any losses.

So, we could be rolling in money both ways if we are careful.  

[chessnut]

Looks like china is pushing so darn hard that we may have missed out on an opportunity to trade wave (v) of iii. not to worry, we can still trade wave v. we will get another chance to buy in this area, chances are the wave iv correction that is coming will be very steep. so please be careful with margin if you are long.

[watuba]

Looks like china is pushing so darn hard that we may have missed out on an opportunity to trade wave (v) of iii. not to worry, we can still trade wave v. we will get another chance to buy in this area, chances are the wave iv correction that is coming will be very steep. so please be careful with margin if you are long.

I still have some of my long position.  Does that mean, I should look for a top of wave (v) of iii to try to dump off and rebuy a sharp wave iv correction?  What price would you look to sell at if so, 2800?

[chessnut]

Looks like china is pushing so darn hard that we may have missed out on an opportunity to trade wave (v) of iii. not to worry, we can still trade wave v. we will get another chance to buy in this area, chances are the wave iv correction that is coming will be very steep. so please be careful with margin if you are long.

I still have some of my long position.  Does that mean, I should look for a top of wave (v) of iii to try to dump off and rebuy a sharp wave iv correction?  What price would you look to sell at if so, 2800?

Yes this is a good place to take profit. it is close to the ultimate top and means you will have another shot at wave v after the coming correction.

By the the looks of it, you should be targeting around 2880 yuan   trading futures? put that level to the futures chart and price accordingly.

EDIT - just noticed that OKcoin and huobi are playing a different game here. for Okcoin id actually lock it in a bit lower. maybe 2840-50. With Huobi it is not clear, just look for weakness about 50yuan higher up at a guess.

[watuba]

Looks like china is pushing so darn hard that we may have missed out on an opportunity to trade wave (v) of iii. not to worry, we can still trade wave v. we will get another chance to buy in this area, chances are the wave iv correction that is coming will be very steep. so please be careful with margin if you are long.

I still have some of my long position.  Does that mean, I should look for a top of wave (v) of iii to try to dump off and rebuy a sharp wave iv correction?  What price would you look to sell at if so, 2800?

Yes this is a good place to take profit. it is close to the ultimate top and means you will have another shot at wave v after the coming correction.

By the the looks of it, you should be targeting around 2880 yuan  trading futures? put that level to the futures chart and price accordingly.

Yes futures.  Sorry, what do you mean by put that level to the futures chart and price accordingly?  As in, since futures are trading like $5 or 30 yuan greater than the price, a sell at 2880 yuan is like a sell at 2910 yuan in futures?

[chessnut]

Yes futures.  Sorry, what do you mean by put that level to the futures chart and price accordingly?  As in, since futures are trading like $5 or 30 yuan greater than the price, a sell at 2880 yuan is like a sell at 2910 yuan in futures?

yes, ask higher for futures is what I mean. close at whatever the price of futures is at when the spot price reaches around 2850.

[chessnut]

Update on the situation. we will look to buy again when this falls over.

[chessnut]

Watuba see pm quick

[watuba]

Watuba see pm quick

Got it, thank you very much.

[Raystonn]

So we've changed from this:


To this:


Those waiting to buy at 2510 should never see it.  iv has been raised.  Your next guidance is to wait to buy at 2580ish.  But the very same thing may happen again, leaving those waiting on (iv) disappointed as well.  I assume it's possible that iv could be raised again, right?

When EW makes a great call, it's awesome.  But you really have to keep changing the plan to stay on top of it.  So the plan doesn't tend to have a great deal of longevity.

[chessnut]

Those waiting to buy at 2510 should never see it.  iv has been raised.  Your next guidance is to wait to buy at 2580ish.  But the very same thing may happen again, leaving those waiting on (iv) disappointed as well.  I assume it's possible that iv could be raised again, right?

When EW makes a great call, it's awesome.  But you really have to keep changing the plan to stay on top of it.  So the plan doesn't tend to have a great deal of longevity.

No thats not quite right, because the higher order of wave iv and v will be followed by a deep wave ii or a retrace to 270. The recent V was truncated on most exchanges, I think we should have no trouble picking a bottom before the next rally to around 3000 yuan.

PLUS I would not advise that followers literally sell their bitcoin, or at least not all of them whenever I call I top. The HODL philosophy is still important to EW analysts too. It could be a wild ride the next bubble, everyone should be holding some bitcoin.

[windjc]

Good job Chessnut. You have really grown in your skills over the last year and I just wanted you to know that I have been impressed with your analysis these last months. Keep up the good work!

[chessnut]

thanks windjc,

The hourly macd is crossing down for the first time since 2200 (just the other day?!)

basically the rally is pretty exhausted and we should expect that wave iv to come down lower. We are expecting it to be deep, it may still enter low 2500s. I think with momentum at hourly lows we will have plenty of time to wait patiently for a quality trade in the low 2600s or hopefully low 2500s. There's no point is worrying about the last little leg too much, the big money is through and we are lucky to get an opportunity here if we do.

At this point in looks like the west is completing wave v late. its a bit of a riddle to me really.... they seemed totally truncated when Okc was breaking new highs. Just dont chase the price on margin here we are bound in this territory for a while yet.