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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1652550 times)
waltmarkers
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June 21, 2012, 12:13:38 PM
 #221

There is no manipulator.  The ask wall is there because its owner is hoping to sell 20k+ bitcoins at that price.

Thanks for being so patient and trying to teach people.

Guys, this is perfectly normal. 21k BTC at 6.75 USD, if he bought within the last months around 5.2, give over 32k USD profit in a relatively short time. We're talking a potential 30% short-term profit here! Even if everyone is quite bullish, why in the world would people be surprised? If nobody were to do such offers, wouldn't that be more reason to worry? In fact, current volume is somewhat lower, not higher, than I'd have expected.

Feel free to be bullish, the market is hard to read right now so I have no complaints, but expecting that no one would take profits is unreasonable.

Well, being half a normal day's volume, it should help slow the march up....today. Seriously, I'd like to see a cooler sustained burn than a overnight rocket.
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June 21, 2012, 12:14:54 PM
 #222

There is no manipulator.  The ask wall is there because its owner is hoping to sell 20k+ bitcoins at that price.

Thanks for being so patient and trying to teach people.

Guys, this is perfectly normal. 21k BTC at 6.75 USD, if he bought within the last months around 5.2, give over 32k USD profit in a relatively short time. We're talking a potential 30% short-term profit here! Even if everyone is quite bullish, why in the world would people be surprised? If nobody were to do such offers, wouldn't that be more reason to worry? In fact, current volume is somewhat lower, not higher, than I'd have expected.

Feel free to be bullish, the market is hard to read right now so I have no complaints, but expecting that no one would take profits is unreasonable.

Exactly.  As soon as the price starts going up a bunch of people start talking as if nobody will ever take profits, or people won't realize profits until they double, or triple, or quadruple their investment.  That is a large part of what happened last year, and it was unhealthy.

The fact is, the price simply is not going to shoot up like it did last year, because people are competing to take profits now.  The asks are never going to run out, and, in fact, the higher the price goes the more difficult it will be for it to go higher, because it'll take ever more money to move the same absolute distances on the price line.  The guy who buys 20kBTC at $6.75 is probably going to put those things up for sale at $8.something and realize an incredible return compared to most other markets.  And there's probably some guy with a load of bitcoins bought at $6.something who'll toss them up at $7.something and put a stopper on frenzied buying toward $8.

Since the 2012 high, I expect bitcoin growth to be much slower and much less dramatic than it has in the past, and that makes me feel more optimistic for its success.  Mark my words, in 2013 we'll still be visiting single digit prices (and I'm not even factoring hacks and other disruptive shitstorms into that assessment).
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June 21, 2012, 03:42:36 PM
 #223

20k wall has gone!
rally time?
online ppl on btcchart is increasing

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June 21, 2012, 03:47:14 PM
 #224

20k wall has gone!
rally time?
online ppl on btcchart is increasing

You can bet he'll be back with his 20kBTC, and if he's waiting to sell it for more, then he'll probably have to sell into the bids; and my guess is that when he does that he'll accept significant slippage on the downside because he's going to try to sell at a top.  Whatever price rises we're in store for, if any, are probably going to be nothing more than an illusion.

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June 21, 2012, 03:54:35 PM
 #225

but why sell at 6.7 if you can at 7+ Huh

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June 21, 2012, 04:02:40 PM
 #226

And i was already getting ready to watch it being grinded down over a longer timeframe as the new point of "stability".

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June 21, 2012, 04:30:12 PM
 #227

A week ago we saw a buy wall at 5.70 (which then got moved) of nearly the same volume as the sell wall that just disappeared.  Seems like a reasonable but totally unprovable theory that this is the same person.  And this does not seem to be an optimal trading strategy :-) which tells me one thing -- this 150kUSD is just another position for this trader.  In other postings people were wondering how to attract big accounts... I think we're seeing one big account right now.
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June 21, 2012, 04:36:34 PM
 #228

A week ago we saw a buy wall at 5.70 (which then got moved) of nearly the same volume as the sell wall that just disappeared.  Seems like a reasonable but totally unprovable theory that this is the same person.  And this does not seem to be an optimal trading strategy :-) which tells me one thing -- this 150kUSD is just another position for this trader.  In other postings people were wondering how to attract big accounts... I think we're seeing one big account right now.

Maybe if we stop calling them "THE MANIPULATOR" they will invite some more of their friends.
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June 21, 2012, 04:40:27 PM
 #229

20k wall has gone!
rally time?
online ppl on btcchart is increasing

You can bet he'll be back with his 20kBTC, and if he's waiting to sell it for more, then he'll probably have to sell into the bids; and my guess is that when he does that he'll accept significant slippage on the downside because he's going to try to sell at a top.  Whatever price rises we're in store for, if any, are probably going to be nothing more than an illusion.

I told you people: we're in an uptrend. Volume hasn't even picked up yet, and when it does, we'll smash through $7.2.

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June 21, 2012, 04:43:07 PM
 #230

Somehow I suspect the price should NOT be going up huge any time soon (by this I mean within days), only based on a couple observations:

1 - the price going from $5 to $6.75 should be representative of somewhere between $10M-$20M coming into Bitcoins ($1.75 x 8.5 million BTC = $14.9M)

2 - in the event of millions of USD suddenly flooding in to chase BTC, I would expect MtGox should have no problem paying their backlog of USD wire withdrawals!... rather than people musing on the forums about how MtGox is holding up four-figure wires going on three weeks for the sake of "investigation" they pretend will be foiled if people received their money on time.

I believe people are buying coin, but if the tide is washing us with buyers beating our doors down with their USD, I am just not noticing it.

One more observation: I have an ad up on bitcoin-OTC offering to sell large amounts of Bitcoin, with my phone number.  I am not getting calls.  During last year's buying frenzy, I was getting plenty of calls.  (I am not really planning on selling BTC at the moment - it's up just in case I change my mind, and/or as a way to gauge the market, and/or in case I know someone trying to sell BTC where I can perhaps work myself a small profit as a middleman... in fact the last transaction I made as a result of my ad was me BUYING someone's BTC - someone who acknowledged knowing my ad was btc for sale)

I am happy with a six-dollar BTC for as long as it takes for real people interested in holding BTC for their own personal spending purposes arrive at the market to push the price up organically.  Merchants will never take BTC seriously if the price never stops swinging, and that's the real catalyst for growth.

Companies claiming they got hacked and lost your coins sounds like fraud so perfect it could be called fashionable.  I never believe them.  If I ever experience the misfortune of a real intrusion, I declare I have been honest about the way I have managed the keys in Casascius Coins.  I maintain no ability to recover or reproduce the keys, not even under limitless duress or total intrusion.  Remember that trusting strangers with your coins without any recourse is, as a matter of principle, not a best practice.  Don't keep coins online. Use paper wallets instead.
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June 21, 2012, 04:55:50 PM
 #231

but why sell at 6.7 if you can at 7+ Huh

Because if its anything like the last time we got around this price. The price dropped by 30% in less then 2hrs.
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June 21, 2012, 04:59:26 PM
 #232

but why sell at 6.7 if you can at 7+ Huh

Because if its anything like the last time we got around this price. The price dropped by 30% in less then 2hrs.
chart pls

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June 21, 2012, 05:03:40 PM
 #233

Somehow I suspect the price should NOT be going up huge any time soon (by this I mean within days), only based on a couple observations:

1 - the price going from $5 to $6.75 should be representative of somewhere between $10M-$20M coming into Bitcoins ($1.75 x 8.5 million BTC = $14.9M)
[...]
One more observation: I have an ad up on bitcoin-OTC offering to sell large amounts of Bitcoin, with my phone number.  I am not getting calls.  During last year's buying frenzy, I was getting plenty of calls.
[...]
I am happy with a six-dollar BTC for as long as it takes for real people interested in holding BTC for their own personal spending purposes arrive at the market to push the price up organically.  Merchants will never take BTC seriously if the price never stops swinging, and that's the real catalyst for growth.

Your $10m-$20m number is bunk. First of all, there's 9.28m BTC now, not 8.5m. Second, market capitalization does not determine the required money flow for a price change, the depth on the order book does.

The reason you aren't getting calls is because the rally hasn't even started yet. What we're seeing now is just retracement of the correction from the January high of $7.2. That's why we aren't seeing all the posts of exhilaration like the previous rallies, there was a sense of inevitability to this move. The relatively low volume behind up this upward move tells me that its more of a "correction to the correction" than a rally. I don't expect the trend to reverse until we see volume peak at new price highs.

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June 21, 2012, 05:09:34 PM
 #234

Somehow I suspect the price should NOT be going up huge any time soon (by this I mean within days), only based on a couple observations:

1 - the price going from $5 to $6.75 should be representative of somewhere between $10M-$20M coming into Bitcoins ($1.75 x 8.5 million BTC = $14.9M)

2 - in the event of millions of USD suddenly flooding in to chase BTC, I would expect MtGox should have no problem paying their backlog of USD wire withdrawals!... rather than people musing on the forums about how MtGox is holding up four-figure wires going on three weeks for the sake of "investigation" they pretend will be foiled if people received their money on time.

I believe people are buying coin, but if the tide is washing us with buyers beating our doors down with their USD, I am just not noticing it.

One more observation: I have an ad up on bitcoin-OTC offering to sell large amounts of Bitcoin, with my phone number.  I am not getting calls.  During last year's buying frenzy, I was getting plenty of calls.  (I am not really planning on selling BTC at the moment - it's up just in case I change my mind, and/or as a way to gauge the market, and/or in case I know someone trying to sell BTC where I can perhaps work myself a small profit as a middleman... in fact the last transaction I made as a result of my ad was me BUYING someone's BTC - someone who acknowledged knowing my ad was btc for sale)

I am happy with a six-dollar BTC for as long as it takes for real people interested in holding BTC for their own personal spending purposes arrive at the market to push the price up organically.  Merchants will never take BTC seriously if the price never stops swinging, and that's the real catalyst for growth.

The most probable reason that you're not getting calls should be the fact that many exchangers have popped up of late. Add BitInstant and Tangible Cryptography in the mix, and you'll realize it's far more easy to acquire bitcoins now as compared to last year.

My BTC Tip Jar: 1Pgvfy19uwtYe5o9dg3zZsAjgCPt3XZqz9 , GPG ID: B3AAEEB0 ,OTC ID: johnthedong
Escrow service is available on a case by case basis! (PM Me to verify I'm the escrow!)

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June 21, 2012, 05:10:23 PM
 #235

but why sell at 6.7 if you can at 7+ Huh

Because if its anything like the last time we got around this price. The price dropped by 30% in less then 2hrs.
chart pls

Here is a link Smiley easy to do if you want to review the history (since I gather you were not there)

You can set the date to 1 day trade and see it by the min or seconds if you wish.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg180zig2-hourzczsg2012-01-16zeg2012-01-27ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

This is a 1 day chart as you can see its not exactly 30% but if you had invested some $ at the wrong time you took a hit.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg180zig15-minzczsg2012-01-18zeg2012-01-18ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzp


Remember that its past history. Anything can happen.
casascius
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June 21, 2012, 05:18:05 PM
 #236

The most probable reason that you're not getting calls should be the fact that many exchangers have popped up of late. Add BitInstant and Tangible Cryptography in the mix, and you'll realize it's far more easy to acquire bitcoins now as compared to last year.

I should clarify I'm advertising deals of $20k+.  BitInstant definitely does not accept deals of that size, and Tangible isn't explicitly seeking them out (that I have seen).

Companies claiming they got hacked and lost your coins sounds like fraud so perfect it could be called fashionable.  I never believe them.  If I ever experience the misfortune of a real intrusion, I declare I have been honest about the way I have managed the keys in Casascius Coins.  I maintain no ability to recover or reproduce the keys, not even under limitless duress or total intrusion.  Remember that trusting strangers with your coins without any recourse is, as a matter of principle, not a best practice.  Don't keep coins online. Use paper wallets instead.
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June 21, 2012, 05:20:02 PM
 #237

but why sell at 6.7 if you can at 7+ Huh

Because if its anything like the last time we got around this price. The price dropped by 30% in less then 2hrs.
chart pls

Here is a link Smiley easy to do if you want to review the history (since I gather you were not there)

You can set the date to 1 day trade and see it by the min or seconds if you wish.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg180zig2-hourzczsg2012-01-16zeg2012-01-27ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

Remember that its past history. Anything can happen.


the famous bitcoinia long squeeze
it was so unexpected the price Jumped back up 30%  

cloon
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June 21, 2012, 05:24:22 PM
 #238

but why sell at 6.7 if you can at 7+ Huh

Because if its anything like the last time we got around this price. The price dropped by 30% in less then 2hrs.
chart pls

Here is a link Smiley easy to do if you want to review the history (since I gather you were not there)

You can set the date to 1 day trade and see it by the min or seconds if you wish.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg180zig2-hourzczsg2012-01-16zeg2012-01-27ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

This is a 1 day chart as you can see its not exactly 30% but if you had invested some $ at the wrong time you took a hit.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg180zig15-minzczsg2012-01-18zeg2012-01-18ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzp


Remember that its past history. Anything can happen.
this time was at a downtrend from the 7.2 high, i think the situation now is totaly different. nothing to compare here

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casascius
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June 21, 2012, 05:24:27 PM
 #239

Your $10m-$20m number is bunk. First of all, there's 9.28m BTC now, not 8.5m. Second, market capitalization does not determine the required money flow for a price change, the depth on the order book does.

Whoops, yes you are right about the 9.28, but that still falls within the bounds of $10m-$20m so as to not disqualify it as "bunk".  Notice how wide of a range I gave.  Your statement would make more sense if I had claimed, "The price went up $1.75, so that means $16,240,000 must have flowed into BTC."

But the truth is, to achieve a sustained price change, the inflow has to fall somewhere in between the metric you cite (depth of the order book) and the change in market cap.  Someone buying all at once will indeed momentarily raise the price as dictated by the order book; that moment will be brief, and in the absence of other buying, that price will definitely not be sustained.  And if MtGox has to continue to delay wires of $9999 or smaller, well, that's a pretty far cry from millions.  The BTC price did not jump $1.75 based on $9999 or less in buying activity.

Companies claiming they got hacked and lost your coins sounds like fraud so perfect it could be called fashionable.  I never believe them.  If I ever experience the misfortune of a real intrusion, I declare I have been honest about the way I have managed the keys in Casascius Coins.  I maintain no ability to recover or reproduce the keys, not even under limitless duress or total intrusion.  Remember that trusting strangers with your coins without any recourse is, as a matter of principle, not a best practice.  Don't keep coins online. Use paper wallets instead.
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June 21, 2012, 05:32:48 PM
 #240

Casascius, have you just dumped you coins?
I bet you've made a lot of money.
Stop scaring us with ( Micky dollar + Caculation ).
I think the rising is healthy, and i think it will go on.

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