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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1651138 times)
kentrolla
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July 08, 2012, 12:36:04 PM
 #381

The wall changed side...


i think this was just a demonstration of power

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proudhon
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July 08, 2012, 04:37:55 PM
 #382

This one's called, "All your prices are belong to me".  The bitcoin price is a one man show.

SkRRJyTC
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July 08, 2012, 04:39:30 PM
 #383

One man show, plus you know, everyone else  Roll Eyes
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July 08, 2012, 04:42:17 PM
 #384

One man show, plus you know, everyone else  Roll Eyes

Sure.  All those tiny little ups and downs are every one else.
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July 08, 2012, 05:10:29 PM
 #385

Maybe he's just too smart for me, but I think this Manipulator acts irrationally.

Lets face the facts:


- Hes got funds worth about 50k BTC on the BID and 20k BTC on the ASK side
- Playing Ping Pong doesnt work anymore
- to bring the price DOWN to buy cheap bitcoins his 20k ASK wall seems to be too small and hes changing his positions too quickly
- to bring the price UP to sell all his 20k BTC, he's too cautios position his BID wall closer to the current market price, so everyone knows, that 50k BTC BID wall will be withdrawn as soon as price comes closer
- while trying to bring the price UP, he also can`t resist the urge to place his 20k ASK wall at the same time, inhibating any rally efforts
- a nearly 1 month old upward triangle is forming with increasing pressure to produce an outreak upwards or downwards, finalizing latest on the 25th of July, probably much earlier and leaving space for only 1 or 2 more outbreak attempts to the upside, before collapsing.

The most logical conclusion to escape this gridlock would be to withdraw the ASK wall completely, making way for the much anticipated rally beyond 7.00$ into the range of 9.00 or 10 $/BTC. Then just before the peak a selling would much higher returns anyway.
hazek
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July 08, 2012, 05:52:11 PM
 #386

Maybe he's just too smart for me, but I think this Manipulator acts irrationally.

Lets face the facts:


- Hes got funds worth about 50k BTC on the BID and 20k BTC on the ASK side
- Playing Ping Pong doesnt work anymore
- to bring the price DOWN to buy cheap bitcoins his 20k ASK wall seems to be too small and hes changing his positions too quickly
- to bring the price UP to sell all his 20k BTC, he's too cautios position his BID wall closer to the current market price, so everyone knows, that 50k BTC BID wall will be withdrawn as soon as price comes closer
- while trying to bring the price UP, he also can`t resist the urge to place his 20k ASK wall at the same time, inhibating any rally efforts
- a nearly 1 month old upward triangle is forming with increasing pressure to produce an outreak upwards or downwards, finalizing latest on the 25th of July, probably much earlier and leaving space for only 1 or 2 more outbreak attempts to the upside, before collapsing.

The most logical conclusion to escape this gridlock would be to withdraw the ASK wall completely, making way for the much anticipated rally beyond 7.00$ into the range of 9.00 or 10 $/BTC. Then just before the peak a selling would much higher returns anyway.

The theory goes the manipulator i.e. pirate is only trying to keep the price low not buy low, sell high.

My personality type: INTJ - please forgive my weaknesses (Not naturally in tune with others feelings; may be insensitive at times, tend to respond to conflict with logic and reason, tend to believe I'm always right)

If however you enjoyed my post: 15j781DjuJeVsZgYbDVt2NZsGrWKRWFHpp
Spekulatius
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July 08, 2012, 07:26:00 PM
 #387

How could he possibly profit from a low price?
All his funds are held in BTC right? All dividends payed in BTC as well.
So only a high price would be beneficial to him for a higher net worth of his funds held and in case he bails out with it, he will get more money for his coins once he sells them.
notme
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July 08, 2012, 07:32:24 PM
 #388

How could he possibly profit from a low price?
All his funds are held in BTC right? All dividends payed in BTC as well.
So only a high price would be beneficial to him for a higher net worth of his funds held and in case he bails out with it, he will get more money for his coins once he sells them.

Because his profits cone in USD and he has to buy BTC to pay the interest.  Also, he has USD exposure on some of his funds at times and he especially needs to ensure the prices stays down during those times.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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Spekulatius
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July 08, 2012, 07:43:04 PM
 #389

1. He's paying interest from the funds previously received. When he has to actually buy new BTC to pay interest, he's in the red. Then his ponzi scheme can be seen failed. (based on the assumption that he is running a ponzi)

2. What other funds are you thinking of?

3. How do you know these funds are exposed to USD?
notme
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July 08, 2012, 08:03:44 PM
 #390

1. He's paying interest from the funds previously received. When he has to actually buy new BTC to pay interest, he's in the red. Then his ponzi scheme can be seen failed. (based on the assumption that he is running a ponzi)

2. What other funds are you thinking of?

3. How do you know these funds are exposed to USD?

It is in my best interest to not publish details about his business model, although I know little beyond what is public.  Yes, this breaks with the ponzi assumption, but I make no such assumption.  He helps impatient people buy bitcoin and charges a nice fee to handle the volume at the quoted price.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
hazek
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July 08, 2012, 08:30:08 PM
 #391

How could he possibly profit from a low price?
All his funds are held in BTC right? All dividends payed in BTC as well.
So only a high price would be beneficial to him for a higher net worth of his funds held and in case he bails out with it, he will get more money for his coins once he sells them.

Here's why:

No, I need no details. I just want to know why you don't have enough BTC to continue without investors by now. Exponential growth is pretty neat, and I don't see why these peoples' BTC should be better than your own.

If there's one thing I found out by now, then it's that you joke a lot less than it seems. I trust you can fulfill the promise above, and you'll have a laugh at a lot of people when you do.

I can't remember how many times I've explained this, but for you I'll do it again.

Bitcoin is not fiat yet.  That doesn't mean it won't be at some point nor does it mean I don't believe in it. There's simply no reason at this time for me to risk market movements with my converted fiat > bitcoin when there's hundreds of users that will let me make money with their coins.  I don't need them, I just prefer them.

My operation is funded by my lenders and I do hold a few personal coins myself.



As you can see, he claims he does what ever the hell he does (I believe nothing) in USD and then converts back into BTC. The only reason he isn't doing what he does with his own money and gives up huges profits, he says, is because he doesn't want to risk his own money holding USD while BTC might climb, so he borrows BTC at insane rates from people and transfers that risk on to them.

I believe there are post where he even says that a price jump higher would be really bad for him.

My personality type: INTJ - please forgive my weaknesses (Not naturally in tune with others feelings; may be insensitive at times, tend to respond to conflict with logic and reason, tend to believe I'm always right)

If however you enjoyed my post: 15j781DjuJeVsZgYbDVt2NZsGrWKRWFHpp
notme
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July 08, 2012, 08:41:48 PM
 #392

How could he possibly profit from a low price?
All his funds are held in BTC right? All dividends payed in BTC as well.
So only a high price would be beneficial to him for a higher net worth of his funds held and in case he bails out with it, he will get more money for his coins once he sells them.

Here's why:

No, I need no details. I just want to know why you don't have enough BTC to continue without investors by now. Exponential growth is pretty neat, and I don't see why these peoples' BTC should be better than your own.

If there's one thing I found out by now, then it's that you joke a lot less than it seems. I trust you can fulfill the promise above, and you'll have a laugh at a lot of people when you do.

I can't remember how many times I've explained this, but for you I'll do it again.

Bitcoin is not fiat yet.  That doesn't mean it won't be at some point nor does it mean I don't believe in it. There's simply no reason at this time for me to risk market movements with my converted fiat > bitcoin when there's hundreds of users that will let me make money with their coins.  I don't need them, I just prefer them.

My operation is funded by my lenders and I do hold a few personal coins myself.



As you can see, he claims he does what ever the hell he does (I believe nothing) in USD and then converts back into BTC. The only reason he isn't doing what he does with his own money and gives up huges profits, he says, is because he doesn't want to risk his own money holding USD while BTC might climb, so he borrows BTC at insane rates from people and transfers that risk on to them.

I believe there are post where he even says that a price jump higher would be really bad for him.

I don't read his comment like that at all.  To me, it sounds like he doesn't want to risk holding large amounts of bitcoin (for those times he needs to sell them for USD NOW).  It's funny how bad assumptions make you see what you are looking for instead of what is said.  He's eliminating the risk of BTC falling from his business model.  If BTC takes a shit he can easily repay his debt and has no loss of personal funds.  If it rockets at the wrong time however, we will have a problem.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
hazek
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July 08, 2012, 08:56:30 PM
 #393

If BTC takes a shit he can easily repay his debt and has no loss of personal funds.  If it rockets at the wrong time however, we will have a problem.

And what did I say?

The theory goes the manipulator i.e. pirate is only trying to keep the price low not buy low, sell high.

My personality type: INTJ - please forgive my weaknesses (Not naturally in tune with others feelings; may be insensitive at times, tend to respond to conflict with logic and reason, tend to believe I'm always right)

If however you enjoyed my post: 15j781DjuJeVsZgYbDVt2NZsGrWKRWFHpp
ElectricMucus
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July 08, 2012, 09:08:38 PM
 #394

With the current buy wall I doubt that pirate is behind it. He would have had to sell a lot of BTC to obtain that many USD to put that wall in place.
I even think pirate isn't involved with the exchanges at all.


The best explanation is that the wall belongs to someone who sold back in 2010 toying with us all the way. The fun thing about Mtgox is, if there ever is a buywall/sellwall you can bet that funds are still on there once the wall is pulled. From the looks of it there are already a bunch of suckers piled before 6.50. So if that wall gets pulled that is where it will go.

Last time was sell wall -> popped went up now down, then rinse, repeat.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
Spekulatius
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July 08, 2012, 10:16:41 PM
 #395

If BTC takes a shit he can easily repay his debt and has no loss of personal funds.  If it rockets at the wrong time however, we will have a problem.

And what did I say?

The theory goes the manipulator i.e. pirate is only trying to keep the price low not buy low, sell high.

The opposite
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July 09, 2012, 01:57:46 AM
 #396


it seems no matter which way the walls are placed, people are buying bitcoin... and with good reason!


proudhon
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July 09, 2012, 04:48:27 PM
 #397



This is odd.  MtGox reported $7+ for a while, but there really wasn't any change in volume.  I think something isn't working right, or almost all the asks were removed and somebody bought anyway, or some combination.
damnek
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July 09, 2012, 05:46:59 PM
 #398

It could have something to do with the other markets, maybe it's converting GBP or EUR trades to USD or smth like that.
But yeah, it's not very clear what that's supposed to mean..

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humanitee
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July 09, 2012, 05:53:17 PM
 #399

I started writing a trading bot a few weeks ago. Gox sends me garbage quite often, buys/asks in the $4.00 - $24.00 range. Maybe that influenced the header. I've always wondered what's going on, but could find nothing on these boards explaining it.
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July 09, 2012, 05:56:30 PM
 #400

MtGox is buggy, it has been sending info and/or executing trades incorrectly intermittently for 2 years.

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