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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1651571 times)
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July 21, 2012, 03:28:15 PM
 #861

i think his influence is much overrated.
how much money is he in charge of? somebody knows?

I think he has more than 200,000 bitcoins.

Over 200,000 borrowed bitcoins. That is why the more he tries to manipulate the market with the borrowed BTC, the higher the risk of a pirate in a short squeeze.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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July 21, 2012, 03:43:00 PM
 #862

So far it is fairly save to assum, that the 70k BTC (around 500k USD) stash that moves now and then belongs to him. The best evidence to me is the very timely correlation to his announcements on IRC and the trading followed by it, or not followed (e.g. when he said that he goes to bed and nothing happened thereafter for a day).

Around 44k BTC were involved over the past 4 dumpings on the 17th (34k BTC) and the 20st (10k BTC), when the price was brought down from around 8.8 to 7.8$ in a big dump -edit- on average: 8.3 USD/BTC -edit-. Those two combined bring the total USD aquired in those moves to ~365,000 USD.*

Around 70k BTC were then bought 4 hours ago driving the price up from 8.81 USD to 9.70 USD, equalling an average price of 9.255 USD/BTC  for all the USD spent. That means, around 647850 USD were sold for 70k BTC.*

In combination, those 44k BTC spent from the 17th to the 20st of July have -edit- incurred around 4500 BTC today in losses -edit-. He also bought additional 21500 BTC today, driving his total balance to 70k BTC. There maybe more that we just dont see yet.

IF this is the only player of that caliber right now, one would expect him to move the price in the other direction, once he can gain higher average prices for his sell. As soon as a 70k BTC dump would score more then the 647850 USD spent, one can expect a huge sell to happen. Especially as this player has shown signs of megalomania and expressed affection for large swings.

*Volumes taken from clarmoody.com and bitcoincharts.com
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July 21, 2012, 03:47:54 PM
 #863

i think his influence is much overrated.
how much money is he in charge of? somebody knows?

I think he has more than 200,000 bitcoins.

Over 200,000 borrowed bitcoins. That is why the more he tries to manipulate the market with the borrowed BTC, the higher the risk of a pirate in a short squeeze.

He made a comment some days ago, that he could drive the price down to 1.80 $/BTC, that is when I looked it up in the order book at the time and saw that around 1 million USD worth of BTC would have been needed to do so.
IF his claim was right, he would have had by that time (less then a week ago) around 1M USD ( 150,000 BTC) in assets.
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July 21, 2012, 03:55:51 PM
 #864

So far it is fairly save to assum, that the 70k BTC (around 500k USD) stash that moves now and then belongs to him. The best evidence to me is the very timely correlation to his announcements on IRC and the trading followed by it, or not followed (e.g. when he said that he goes to bed and nothing happened thereafter for a day).

Around 44k BTC were involved over the past 4 dumpings on the 17th (34k BTC) and the 20st (10k BTC), when the price was brought down from around 8.8 to 7.8$ in a big dump. Those two combined bring the total USD aquired in those moves to ~450000 USD.*

Around 70k BTC were then bought 4 hours ago driving the price up from 8.81 USD to 9.70 USD, equalling an average price of 9.255 USD/BTC  for all the USD spent. That means, around 647850 USD were sold for 70k BTC.*

In combination, those 44k BTC spent from the 17th to the 20st of July have yielded around 4500 BTC today in pure profit. He also bought additional 21500 BTC today, driving his total balance to 70k BTC. There maybe more that we just dont see yet.

IF this is the only player of that caliber right now, one would expect him to move the price in the other direction, once he can gain higher average prices for his sell. As soon as a 70k BTC dump would score more then the 647850 USD spent, one can expect a huge sell to happen. Especially as this player has shown signs of megalomania and expressed affection for large swings.

*Volumes taken from clarmoody.com and bitcoincharts.com

so, if we assume the Sells and the Buys were both him. His strategy is to sell low and buy high? ;p

If you're not excited by the idea of being an early adopter 'now', then you should come back in three or four years and either tell us "Told you it'd never work!" or join what should, by then, be a much more stable and easier-to-use system. - GA
It is being worked on by smart people. -DamienBlack
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July 21, 2012, 03:58:51 PM
 #865

i think his influence is much overrated.
how much money is he in charge of? somebody knows?

I think he has more than 200,000 bitcoins.

Over 200,000 borrowed bitcoins. That is why the more he tries to manipulate the market with the borrowed BTC, the higher the risk of a pirate in a short squeeze.

He made a comment some days ago, that he could drive the price down to 1.80 $/BTC, that is when I looked it up in the order book at the time and saw that around 1 million USD worth of BTC would have been needed to do so.
IF his claim was right, he would have had by that time (less then a week ago) around 1M USD ( 150,000 BTC) in assets.

He could also do the same thing as a short with BTC borrowed at 7% a week in interest. The asset backing this is likely USD not BTC.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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July 21, 2012, 04:08:01 PM
 #866

So far it is fairly save to assum, that the 70k BTC (around 500k USD) stash that moves now and then belongs to him. The best evidence to me is the very timely correlation to his announcements on IRC and the trading followed by it, or not followed (e.g. when he said that he goes to bed and nothing happened thereafter for a day).

Around 44k BTC were involved over the past 4 dumpings on the 17th (34k BTC) and the 20st (10k BTC), when the price was brought down from around 8.8 to 7.8$ in a big dump. Those two combined bring the total USD aquired in those moves to ~450000 USD.*

Around 70k BTC were then bought 4 hours ago driving the price up from 8.81 USD to 9.70 USD, equalling an average price of 9.255 USD/BTC  for all the USD spent. That means, around 647850 USD were sold for 70k BTC.*

In combination, those 44k BTC spent from the 17th to the 20st of July have yielded around 4500 BTC today in pure profit. He also bought additional 21500 BTC today, driving his total balance to 70k BTC. There maybe more that we just dont see yet.

IF this is the only player of that caliber right now, one would expect him to move the price in the other direction, once he can gain higher average prices for his sell. As soon as a 70k BTC dump would score more then the 647850 USD spent, one can expect a huge sell to happen. Especially as this player has shown signs of megalomania and expressed affection for large swings.

*Volumes taken from clarmoody.com and bitcoincharts.com

so, if we assume the Sells and the Buys were both him. His strategy is to sell low and buy high? ;p

The strategy is sell high and buy low. The is why he needs to borrow BTC and not USD. We are talking about a bear here. The strategy can be very profitable in a bear market. In a bull market he can end up selling low and buying high otherwise known as a short squeeze.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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July 21, 2012, 04:13:04 PM
 #867

i think his influence is much overrated.
how much money is he in charge of? somebody knows?

I think he has more than 200,000 bitcoins.

Over 200,000 borrowed bitcoins. That is why the more he tries to manipulate the market with the borrowed BTC, the higher the risk of a pirate in a short squeeze.

He made a comment some days ago, that he could drive the price down to 1.80 $/BTC, that is when I looked it up in the order book at the time and saw that around 1 million USD worth of BTC would have been needed to do so.
IF his claim was right, he would have had by that time (less then a week ago) around 1M USD ( 150,000 BTC) in assets.

He could also do the same thing as a short with BTC borrowed at 7% a week in interest. The asset backing this is likely USD not BTC.

That would be a very risky strategy, as the market would have to go down by 7 % a week in order to break even. Since when is he operating again? Because he would have incurred huge losses for the last 5,5 month. I rather think he`s riding the ponzi train all along.
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July 21, 2012, 04:15:28 PM
 #868

So far it is fairly save to assum, that the 70k BTC (around 500k USD) stash that moves now and then belongs to him. The best evidence to me is the very timely correlation to his announcements on IRC and the trading followed by it, or not followed (e.g. when he said that he goes to bed and nothing happened thereafter for a day).

Around 44k BTC were involved over the past 4 dumpings on the 17th (34k BTC) and the 20st (10k BTC), when the price was brought down from around 8.8 to 7.8$ in a big dump. Those two combined bring the total USD aquired in those moves to ~450000 USD.*

Around 70k BTC were then bought 4 hours ago driving the price up from 8.81 USD to 9.70 USD, equalling an average price of 9.255 USD/BTC  for all the USD spent. That means, around 647850 USD were sold for 70k BTC.*

In combination, those 44k BTC spent from the 17th to the 20st of July have yielded around 4500 BTC today in pure profit. He also bought additional 21500 BTC today, driving his total balance to 70k BTC. There maybe more that we just dont see yet.

IF this is the only player of that caliber right now, one would expect him to move the price in the other direction, once he can gain higher average prices for his sell. As soon as a 70k BTC dump would score more then the 647850 USD spent, one can expect a huge sell to happen. Especially as this player has shown signs of megalomania and expressed affection for large swings.

*Volumes taken from clarmoody.com and bitcoincharts.com

so, if we assume the Sells and the Buys were both him. His strategy is to sell low and buy high? ;p

The strategy is sell high and buy low. The is why he needs to borrow BTC and not USD. We are talking about a bear here. The strategy can be very profitable in a bear market. In a bull market he can end up selling low and buying high otherwise known as a short squeeze.

read what the threee of us just wrote again and think about that. The HUGE sell a few days ago were from 8.8 down to 7.8. The HUGE buy last night was from 8.8 up to 9.7... If those were the same person, they just bought someone elses next 1000 lunches... And we are in a BULL market. them bears need to get over it..

If you're not excited by the idea of being an early adopter 'now', then you should come back in three or four years and either tell us "Told you it'd never work!" or join what should, by then, be a much more stable and easier-to-use system. - GA
It is being worked on by smart people. -DamienBlack
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July 21, 2012, 04:31:29 PM
 #869

I think I made a mistake, but I cant find it.  Huh

Pirate (or whoever) sold low and bought high, so he must have lost money,

BUT, I wrote:

Quote
Around 44k BTC were involved over the past 4 dumpings on the 17th (34k BTC) and the 20st (10k BTC), when the price was brought down from around 8.8 to 7.8$ in a big dump. Those two combined bring the total USD aquired in those moves to ~450000 USD.*

Around 70k BTC were then bought 4 hours ago driving the price up from 8.81 USD to 9.70 USD, equalling an average price of 9.255 USD/BTC  for all the USD spent. That means, around 647850 USD were sold for 70k BTC.*

In combination, those 44k BTC spent from the 17th to the 20st of July have yielded around 4500 BTC today in pure profit. He also bought additional 21500 BTC today, driving his total balance to 70k BTC. There maybe more that we just dont see yet.

Lets only look at the 44k BTC mentioned. They were sold for ~450,000 USD.
Then those 450,000 USD were reinvested in buying 48622.36629 BTC! at around 9,255 USD/BTC. That is a 4622.36629 BTC profit.
How can this be? What am I overlooking here Huh
ArticMine
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July 21, 2012, 04:33:55 PM
 #870

i think his influence is much overrated.
how much money is he in charge of? somebody knows?

I think he has more than 200,000 bitcoins.

Over 200,000 borrowed bitcoins. That is why the more he tries to manipulate the market with the borrowed BTC, the higher the risk of a pirate in a short squeeze.

He made a comment some days ago, that he could drive the price down to 1.80 $/BTC, that is when I looked it up in the order book at the time and saw that around 1 million USD worth of BTC would have been needed to do so.
IF his claim was right, he would have had by that time (less then a week ago) around 1M USD ( 150,000 BTC) in assets.

He could also do the same thing as a short with BTC borrowed at 7% a week in interest. The asset backing this is likely USD not BTC.

That would be a very risky strategy, as the market would have to go down by 7 % a week in order to break even. Since when is he operating again? Because he would have incurred huge losses for the last 5,5 month. I rather think he`s riding the ponzi train all along.

Done in isolation of course but not as part of an overall business strategy in a bear or flat market. I explained my pirate theory in the following post


This is very true, but only for the last 7 months. Why? What changed in the market?

Let me explain: pirateat40 is fundamentally a bear. He has however built a business that involves selling BTC to his clients who are bulls. In order to run his business he needs an inventory of BTC estimated from more than one source to be say 250000 BTC. Now like any business he needs to finance his inventory. He has two choices:
1) Borrow USD
2) Borrow BTC
(1) is cheap; however he runs the risk of a sudden drop in the BTC price leaving him with a warehouse full of worthless BTC and 2.5 million USD in debt. Let us remember we are dealing with a bear here. So instead he chooses option (2) and pays a premium rate of 7% a week to borrow BTC. He has now effectively hedged his downward risk. If the price of BTC were to drop to zero tomorrow he can repay his lenders in the now worthless BTC together with the 7% per week interest also denominated in BTC.

Now when a buyer comes along he sells the buyer BTC from his inventory and then goes into the market buys back the sold BTC. He needs to generate say 10% a week in commissions in a flat market in order to pay his lenders and make a profit. This is actually not that hard to do. In a bear market July 2011 - December 2011 he makes an additional profit because he is effectively short the market between selling his BTC from inventory and buying them back in the market in order to replenish his inventory. Now in a bull market is where the situation starts to get interesting. I suspect he can tolerate a small rise in the market, but not a sharp sudden rise so he has to use ask walls in order to moderate a rise in the market and apparently has been doing this quite well for the last 7 months. There is a serious risk here. A long term well capitalized investor who does not mind paying a small premium say 10% - 15% over market comes is out of the blue and buys out his ask wall. Now he is effectively short not only the BTC sold to the client but also the BTC from the now sold ask wall in a rising market. This is when the fun and the real risk of a short squeeze starts.

There is no need here for a ponzi or any kind of money laundering to explain this theory.

By the way I have deduced all of this from pirateat40's own comments, the comments of both his supporters and detractors and correlating these comments with the historical market behavior, as part of my own due diligence on Bitcoin.



Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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July 21, 2012, 04:45:58 PM
 #871

I think I made a mistake, but I cant find it.  Huh

Pirate (or whoever) sold low and bought high, so he must have lost money,

BUT, I wrote:

Quote
Around 44k BTC were involved over the past 4 dumpings on the 17th (34k BTC) and the 20st (10k BTC), when the price was brought down from around 8.8 to 7.8$ in a big dump. Those two combined bring the total USD aquired in those moves to ~450000 USD.*

Around 70k BTC were then bought 4 hours ago driving the price up from 8.81 USD to 9.70 USD, equalling an average price of 9.255 USD/BTC  for all the USD spent. That means, around 647850 USD were sold for 70k BTC.*

In combination, those 44k BTC spent from the 17th to the 20st of July have yielded around 4500 BTC today in pure profit. He also bought additional 21500 BTC today, driving his total balance to 70k BTC. There maybe more that we just dont see yet.

Lets only look at the 44k BTC mentioned. They were sold for ~450,000 USD.
Then those 450,000 USD were reinvested in buying 48622.36629 BTC! at around 9,255 USD/BTC. That is a 4622.36629 BTC profit.
How can this be? What am I overlooking here Huh

44000 BTC @ 8.8 USD / BTC = 387200 USD

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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July 21, 2012, 05:06:12 PM
 #872

I think I made a mistake, but I cant find it.  Huh

Pirate (or whoever) sold low and bought high, so he must have lost money,

BUT, I wrote:

Quote
Around 44k BTC were involved over the past 4 dumpings on the 17th (34k BTC) and the 20st (10k BTC), when the price was brought down from around 8.8 to 7.8$ in a big dump. Those two combined bring the total USD aquired in those moves to ~450000 USD.*

Around 70k BTC were then bought 4 hours ago driving the price up from 8.81 USD to 9.70 USD, equalling an average price of 9.255 USD/BTC  for all the USD spent. That means, around 647850 USD were sold for 70k BTC.*

In combination, those 44k BTC spent from the 17th to the 20st of July have yielded around 4500 BTC today in pure profit. He also bought additional 21500 BTC today, driving his total balance to 70k BTC. There maybe more that we just dont see yet.

Lets only look at the 44k BTC mentioned. They were sold for ~450,000 USD.
Then those 450,000 USD were reinvested in buying 48622.36629 BTC! at around 9,255 USD/BTC. That is a 4622.36629 BTC profit.
How can this be? What am I overlooking here Huh

your 450,000 USD would have put the 44kBTC sell at $10 per. that's where your math error is. 44k BTC bought at average 8.3 would have acquired them only 365,200 USD

If you're not excited by the idea of being an early adopter 'now', then you should come back in three or four years and either tell us "Told you it'd never work!" or join what should, by then, be a much more stable and easier-to-use system. - GA
It is being worked on by smart people. -DamienBlack
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July 21, 2012, 05:17:05 PM
 #873

Looks like there is another big player on the market, but taken out at least until bitcoin rate goes over 9.5-9.7 unless  he has more funds to inject into the market meanwhile.

*Since he bought in one big spree, we can safely assume it is long term investment for him, otherwise he would have spread the buying in smaller batches without pushing price to the year's record highs.
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July 21, 2012, 05:18:02 PM
 #874

I think I made a mistake, but I cant find it.  Huh

Pirate (or whoever) sold low and bought high, so he must have lost money,

BUT, I wrote:

Quote
Around 44k BTC were involved over the past 4 dumpings on the 17th (34k BTC) and the 20st (10k BTC), when the price was brought down from around 8.8 to 7.8$ in a big dump. Those two combined bring the total USD aquired in those moves to ~450000 USD.*

Around 70k BTC were then bought 4 hours ago driving the price up from 8.81 USD to 9.70 USD, equalling an average price of 9.255 USD/BTC  for all the USD spent. That means, around 647850 USD were sold for 70k BTC.*

In combination, those 44k BTC spent from the 17th to the 20st of July have yielded around 4500 BTC today in pure profit. He also bought additional 21500 BTC today, driving his total balance to 70k BTC. There maybe more that we just dont see yet.

Lets only look at the 44k BTC mentioned. They were sold for ~450,000 USD.
Then those 450,000 USD were reinvested in buying 48622.36629 BTC! at around 9,255 USD/BTC. That is a 4622.36629 BTC profit.
How can this be? What am I overlooking here Huh

your 450,000 USD would have put the 44kBTC sell at $10 per. that's where your math error is. 44k BTC bought at average 8.3 would have acquired them only 365,200 USD

You guys are right, thank you! I have edited my post.
The total losses from those trades described, based on a 44k BTC investment amount to ~4500 BTC.
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July 21, 2012, 05:21:43 PM
 #875

I think I made a mistake, but I cant find it.  Huh

Pirate (or whoever) sold low and bought high, so he must have lost money,

BUT, I wrote:

Quote
Around 44k BTC were involved over the past 4 dumpings on the 17th (34k BTC) and the 20st (10k BTC), when the price was brought down from around 8.8 to 7.8$ in a big dump. Those two combined bring the total USD aquired in those moves to ~450000 USD.*

Around 70k BTC were then bought 4 hours ago driving the price up from 8.81 USD to 9.70 USD, equalling an average price of 9.255 USD/BTC  for all the USD spent. That means, around 647850 USD were sold for 70k BTC.*

In combination, those 44k BTC spent from the 17th to the 20st of July have yielded around 4500 BTC today in pure profit. He also bought additional 21500 BTC today, driving his total balance to 70k BTC. There maybe more that we just dont see yet.

Lets only look at the 44k BTC mentioned. They were sold for ~450,000 USD.
Then those 450,000 USD were reinvested in buying 48622.36629 BTC! at around 9,255 USD/BTC. That is a 4622.36629 BTC profit.
How can this be? What am I overlooking here Huh

your 450,000 USD would have put the 44kBTC sell at $10 per. that's where your math error is. 44k BTC bought at average 8.3 would have acquired them only 365,200 USD

You guys are right, thank you! I have edited my post.
The total losses from those trades described, based on a 44k BTC investment amount to ~4500 BTC.

someone has too much money on their hands lol....or they are just retarded at trading.

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July 21, 2012, 05:26:58 PM
 #876

I think I made a mistake, but I cant find it.  Huh

Pirate (or whoever) sold low and bought high, so he must have lost money,

BUT, I wrote:

Quote
Around 44k BTC were involved over the past 4 dumpings on the 17th (34k BTC) and the 20st (10k BTC), when the price was brought down from around 8.8 to 7.8$ in a big dump. Those two combined bring the total USD aquired in those moves to ~450000 USD.*

Around 70k BTC were then bought 4 hours ago driving the price up from 8.81 USD to 9.70 USD, equalling an average price of 9.255 USD/BTC  for all the USD spent. That means, around 647850 USD were sold for 70k BTC.*

In combination, those 44k BTC spent from the 17th to the 20st of July have yielded around 4500 BTC today in pure profit. He also bought additional 21500 BTC today, driving his total balance to 70k BTC. There maybe more that we just dont see yet.

Lets only look at the 44k BTC mentioned. They were sold for ~450,000 USD.
Then those 450,000 USD were reinvested in buying 48622.36629 BTC! at around 9,255 USD/BTC. That is a 4622.36629 BTC profit.
How can this be? What am I overlooking here Huh

your 450,000 USD would have put the 44kBTC sell at $10 per. that's where your math error is. 44k BTC bought at average 8.3 would have acquired them only 365,200 USD

You guys are right, thank you! I have edited my post.
The total losses from those trades described, based on a 44k BTC investment amount to ~4500 BTC.

someone has too much money on their hands lol....or they are just retarded at trading.
The likely sceanrio is that it is not the same person. There have been a few people lately on Gox and another exchange that have loaded large sums of USD to buy BTC with.


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July 21, 2012, 05:40:46 PM
 #877

You guys are retarded to assume pirate is the only player.  You're also way off topic.  There are already enough pirate FUD threads, can we keep this one for screenshots, or am I just going to have to give up on this subforum?

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July 21, 2012, 05:46:43 PM
 #878

how stupid do you have to be to give someone like pirate money?
too stupid to trade by yourself?

these dumps dont have to be made by him...
i predict that he will fail hard, then run with the coins

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July 21, 2012, 06:05:23 PM
 #879

You guys are retarded to assume pirate is the only player.  You're also way off topic.  There are already enough pirate FUD threads, can we keep this one for screenshots, or am I just going to have to give up on this subforum?

If I'm retarded then you must be retarded^21,000,000

 Grin Grin Grin

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July 21, 2012, 06:10:59 PM
 #880

smilie patrol

^ butt hurt patrol  Grin Grin Grin

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