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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1648955 times)
casascius
Mike Caldwell
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The Casascius 1oz 10BTC Silver Round (w/ Gold B)


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June 21, 2012, 05:39:34 PM
 #241

Casascius, have you just dumped you coins?
I bet you've made a lot of money, so don't scare us with ( Micky dollar + Caculation ).
I think the rising is healthy, and i think it will go on.

I have not bought or sold any significant number of coins in several months, save for the person whose coins I mentioned I bought as a result of my ad.  And I suppose in the process of selling Casascius Coins, I am effectively buying coins very slowly, since I am collecting my costs and markup and shipping charges in BTC, but paying for my supplies and shipping costs in USD.

I do not have any funds in any exchanges, no USD, no BTC.

I paid for my next two months of advertising in Bitcoin Magazine using a USD wire, so as to not smash the BTC piggybank.  In fact, I've made my BTC very difficult to access (physically) so selling it is actually quite inconvenient for me.  Forced savings strategy I guess.  That should tell you how I feel about the long-term prospects of BTC.

If I have an ulterior motive, it's to cool off the chances of there being an unwarranted spike and then a crash.  I would like the coins I am holding to see an increase in their fundamental market value over time, rather than to see a bubble, a brief spike, followed by a crash that scares off merchants.  Stability in the bitcoin price favors growth in the community.

I agree rising is healthy, but I would prefer to see a slow rise, rather than a fast rise followed by wild oscillation.  Now, if it suddenly rises to $30 and then oscillates between $10 and $20 and stays (and I'll eat my crow), I can't say I'll complain given my average BTC cost is under the current going rate.  But what I don't want to see is a spike to $11 and then back down to $5 as "profit takers" act faster than the inflow of demand only to cool it off.

Companies claiming they got hacked and lost your coins sounds like fraud so perfect it could be called fashionable.  I never believe them.  If I ever experience the misfortune of a real intrusion, I declare I have been honest about the way I have managed the keys in Casascius Coins.  I maintain no ability to recover or reproduce the keys, not even under limitless duress or total intrusion.  Remember that trusting strangers with your coins without any recourse is, as a matter of principle, not a best practice.  Don't keep coins online. Use paper wallets instead.
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June 21, 2012, 05:40:04 PM
 #242

but why sell at 6.7 if you can at 7+ Huh

Because if its anything like the last time we got around this price. The price dropped by 30% in less then 2hrs.
chart pls

Here is a link Smiley easy to do if you want to review the history (since I gather you were not there)

You can set the date to 1 day trade and see it by the min or seconds if you wish.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg180zig2-hourzczsg2012-01-16zeg2012-01-27ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

This is a 1 day chart as you can see its not exactly 30% but if you had invested some $ at the wrong time you took a hit.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg180zig15-minzczsg2012-01-18zeg2012-01-18ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzp


Remember that its past history. Anything can happen.
this time was at a downtrend from the 7.2 high, i think the situation now is totaly different. nothing to compare here

Well its very similar considering the day of the month (payday) and weekday start end (trading trends)

However you must factor in the role Bitcoinica's famed market indicator "*" played in that swing.

but i digress..



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June 21, 2012, 05:50:28 PM
 #243

The most probable reason that you're not getting calls should be the fact that many exchangers have popped up of late. Add BitInstant and Tangible Cryptography in the mix, and you'll realize it's far more easy to acquire bitcoins now as compared to last year.

I should clarify I'm advertising deals of $20k+.  BitInstant definitely does not accept deals of that size, and Tangible isn't explicitly seeking them out (that I have seen).

Oops, I stand corrected.  Wink
*John starts to hoard coinage in a steady trickle*

My BTC Tip Jar: 1Pgvfy19uwtYe5o9dg3zZsAjgCPt3XZqz9 , GPG ID: B3AAEEB0 ,OTC ID: johnthedong
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June 21, 2012, 05:51:16 PM
 #244

Your $10m-$20m number is bunk. First of all, there's 9.28m BTC now, not 8.5m. Second, market capitalization does not determine the required money flow for a price change, the depth on the order book does.

Whoops, yes you are right about the 9.28, but that still falls within the bounds of $10m-$20m so as to not disqualify it as "bunk".  Notice how wide of a range I gave.  Your statement would make more sense if I had claimed, "The price went up $1.75, so that means $16,240,000 must have flowed into BTC."

But the truth is, to achieve a sustained price change, the inflow has to fall somewhere in between the metric you cite (depth of the order book) and the change in market cap.  Someone buying all at once will indeed momentarily raise the price as dictated by the order book; that moment will be brief, and in the absence of other buying, that price will definitely not be sustained.  And if MtGox has to continue to delay wires of $9999 or smaller, well, that's a pretty far cry from millions.  The BTC price did not jump $1.75 based on $9999 or less in buying activity.

for example: you start an alternative like bitcoin. ppl mine 1000 coins, someone will buy 10 for 10 USD.
if he does buy and another is willing to buy at 10. few ppl would argue that now the marketcapitalisation should be 10'000USD. but its actually just 100 USD. this does not mean, that the worth should be 0.1USD.
because real worth is 10 USD if someone wants to pay 10 USD (!!!)
to have the approximative calculation you'd need to look at the trade history of all merchants and sum all buys and subtract all sells at the prices where they were executed.
EDIT: you have to add all capital of the buyside of all oderbooks of all merchants to get a calculation, how much money is involved in Bitcoin-market

this is (nearly) never the current prize multiplied with the existing coins.

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June 21, 2012, 05:51:33 PM
 #245

Casascius, have you just dumped you coins?
I bet you've made a lot of money, so don't scare us with ( Micky dollar + Caculation ).
I think the rising is healthy, and i think it will go on.

I have not bought or sold any significant number of coins in several months, save for the person whose coins I mentioned I bought as a result of my ad.  And I suppose in the process of selling Casascius Coins, I am effectively buying coins very slowly, since I am collecting my costs and markup and shipping charges in BTC, but paying for my supplies and shipping costs in USD.

I do not have any funds in any exchanges, no USD, no BTC.

I paid for my next two months of advertising in Bitcoin Magazine using a USD wire, so as to not smash the BTC piggybank.  In fact, I've made my BTC very difficult to access (physically) so selling it is actually quite inconvenient for me.  Forced savings strategy I guess.

If I have an ulterior motive, it's to cool off the chances of there being an unwarranted spike and then a crash.  I would like the coins I am holding to see an increase in their fundamental market value over time, rather than to see a bubble, a brief spike, followed by a crash that scares off merchants.  Stability in the bitcoin price favors growth in the community.

I agree rising is healthy, but I would prefer to see a slow rise, rather than a fast rise followed by wild oscillation.  Now, if it suddenly rises to $30 and then oscillates between $10 and $20 and stays (and I'll eat my crow), I can't say I'll complain given my average BTC cost is under the current going rate.  But what I don't want to see is a spike to $11 and then back down to $5.

This is free market, so i guess you don't need to worry.
People come in, rise, unsustainable, crash, survive? stable,
People come in, rise, unsustainable, crash, survive? stable ...
Eventually, everybody's in, so it can't be more stable.

I think there's one way you can help to stop this "unhealthy rising"  
DUMP YOUR COINS.   -- That'll help a lot.  

But what if it's still rising ? NO, you can do nothing but waiting.
Maybe some hacking will help. Oh, did you hacked MtGox? That helped a lot.
Smiley

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June 21, 2012, 05:56:24 PM
 #246

Casascius, have you just dumped you coins?
I bet you've made a lot of money, so don't scare us with ( Micky dollar + Caculation ).
I think the rising is healthy, and i think it will go on.

I have not bought or sold any significant number of coins in several months, save for the person whose coins I mentioned I bought as a result of my ad.  And I suppose in the process of selling Casascius Coins, I am effectively buying coins very slowly, since I am collecting my costs and markup and shipping charges in BTC, but paying for my supplies and shipping costs in USD.

I do not have any funds in any exchanges, no USD, no BTC.

I paid for my next two months of advertising in Bitcoin Magazine using a USD wire, so as to not smash the BTC piggybank.  In fact, I've made my BTC very difficult to access (physically) so selling it is actually quite inconvenient for me.  Forced savings strategy I guess.  That should tell you how I feel about the long-term prospects of BTC.

If I have an ulterior motive, it's to cool off the chances of there being an unwarranted spike and then a crash.  I would like the coins I am holding to see an increase in their fundamental market value over time, rather than to see a bubble, a brief spike, followed by a crash that scares off merchants.  Stability in the bitcoin price favors growth in the community.

I agree rising is healthy, but I would prefer to see a slow rise, rather than a fast rise followed by wild oscillation.  Now, if it suddenly rises to $30 and then oscillates between $10 and $20 and stays (and I'll eat my crow), I can't say I'll complain given my average BTC cost is under the current going rate.  But what I don't want to see is a spike to $11 and then back down to $5.

I also share this sentiment. These volatile price fluctuations do little to instill confidence in those that wish to use Bitcoins as a potential long term option for wealth preservation.
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June 21, 2012, 06:01:46 PM
 #247

I also share this sentiment. These volatile price fluctuations do little to instill confidence in those that wish to use Bitcoins as a potential long term option for wealth preservation.

I don't think so, i think the bitcoin community need to expand, and last summer's price-rising helped alot.
We need another one to reach the edge of "network effect".
If we the community are big enough, the price will be more stable.


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June 21, 2012, 06:11:54 PM
 #248

I also share this sentiment. These volatile price fluctuations do little to instill confidence in those that wish to use Bitcoins as a potential long term option for wealth preservation.

I don't think so, i think the bitcoin community need to expand, and last summer's price-rising helped alot.
We need another one to reach the edge of "network effect".
If we the community are big enough, the price will be more stable.



I agree with the need for more people using bitcoin for their day to day purchasing needs.
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June 21, 2012, 06:20:57 PM
 #249

I also share this sentiment. These volatile price fluctuations do little to instill confidence in those that wish to use Bitcoins as a potential long term option for wealth preservation.

I don't think so, i think the bitcoin community need to expand, and last summer's price-rising helped alot.
We need another one to reach the edge of "network effect".
If we the community are big enough, the price will be more stable.



I agree with the need for more people using bitcoin for their day to day purchasing needs.

The price is never going to be stable, it doesn't matter how many merchants there are. Look at the volatile price fluctuations of gold. Not even the dollar (or goods priced in dollars) and euro are stable.

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June 21, 2012, 06:29:47 PM
 #250

I also share this sentiment. These volatile price fluctuations do little to instill confidence in those that wish to use Bitcoins as a potential long term option for wealth preservation.

I don't think so, i think the bitcoin community need to expand, and last summer's price-rising helped alot.
We need another one to reach the edge of "network effect".
If we the community are big enough, the price will be more stable.



I agree with the need for more people using bitcoin for their day to day purchasing needs.

The price is never going to be stable, it doesn't matter how many merchants there are. Look at the volatile price fluctuations of gold. Not even the dollar (or goods priced in dollars) and euro are stable.

well if more then 80% of coins are used to buy good / services
the overall size of the bitcoin continuity doesn't grow or shrink significantly
and speculators think this status quo will hold for a very long time ( and they trade adoringly )
maybe then we'll see very stable prices

I think we are heading toward this, but we are not their yet.... give it 10 years

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June 21, 2012, 07:10:44 PM
 #251

I also share this sentiment. These volatile price fluctuations do little to instill confidence in those that wish to use Bitcoins as a potential long term option for wealth preservation.

I don't think so, i think the bitcoin community need to expand, and last summer's price-rising helped alot.
We need another one to reach the edge of "network effect".
If we the community are big enough, the price will be more stable.



I agree with the need for more people using bitcoin for their day to day purchasing needs.

The price is never going to be stable, it doesn't matter how many merchants there are. Look at the volatile price fluctuations of gold. Not even the dollar (or goods priced in dollars) and euro are stable.

well if more then 80% of coins are used to buy good / services
the overall size of the bitcoin continuity doesn't grow or shrink significantly
and speculators think this status quo will hold for a very long time ( and they trade adoringly )
maybe then we'll see very stable prices

I think we are heading toward this, but we are not their yet.... give it 10 years

Wrong, if more than 80% of coins are used, the economy would grow significantly. The more people are willing to trade something (doesn't have to be fiat, could be a Fiat car) for BTC, the higher the value of each BTC and the more the economy grows. It may get to the point where we can't assign a dollar figure to the market cap, but we would all agree that one BTC buys a Fiat...

The pitfalls of thinking of an economy only in terms of currency :-)
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June 21, 2012, 07:20:41 PM
 #252

Nobody who really cares about BTC wants to see massive instability. However, it's simply a fact that Bitcoin needs a larger market cap. It has received so much attention that there just has to be bigger players out there who want to participate but can't because the market cap just isn't there yet.

So even though I'm wary of bubbles and I wouldn't like that scenario, the truth is that Bitcoin deserves some growth right now and the market cap increase is definitely needed. I'm willing to risk it that we might overshoot and I hope that the market is smarter this time and doesn't overshoot too much.

We have reached the 2012 record for market cap during this rally already, which is excellent. Still far away from the 2011 high but there was a fairly big bubble so it's understandable. I'm quite confident that there is still room for growth this year, at least for the market cap. We need to remember that the money supply is still growing quite fast. Not for long though, block reward halving is getting closer and closer.

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June 21, 2012, 09:17:42 PM
 #253

I also share this sentiment. These volatile price fluctuations do little to instill confidence in those that wish to use Bitcoins as a potential long term option for wealth preservation.

I don't think so, i think the bitcoin community need to expand, and last summer's price-rising helped alot.
We need another one to reach the edge of "network effect".
If we the community are big enough, the price will be more stable.



I agree with the need for more people using bitcoin for their day to day purchasing needs.

The price is never going to be stable, it doesn't matter how many merchants there are. Look at the volatile price fluctuations of gold. Not even the dollar (or goods priced in dollars) and euro are stable.

well if more then 80% of coins are used to buy good / services
the overall size of the bitcoin continuity doesn't grow or shrink significantly
and speculators think this status quo will hold for a very long time ( and they trade adoringly )
maybe then we'll see very stable prices

I think we are heading toward this, but we are not their yet.... give it 10 years

Wrong, if more than 80% of coins are used, the economy would grow significantly. The more people are willing to trade something (doesn't have to be fiat, could be a Fiat car) for BTC, the higher the value of each BTC and the more the economy grows. It may get to the point where we can't assign a dollar figure to the market cap, but we would all agree that one BTC buys a Fiat...

The pitfalls of thinking of an economy only in terms of currency :-)

all i'm saying is these three things need to happen b4 BTC can be considered truly stable

look at gold its very similar to bitcoin But people aren't about to start buying 1Gram of weed with 100th of an ounce of gold.... this would be crazy. gold is purely speculative and not useful, this is why gold prices are very unstable. ( about to crash to 500 any year now  Wink )

But Bitcoin!

Its good for for speculation like gold cuz theirs a limited amount.  And it actually makes things easier... Send me some bitcoins, and ill send you one of my special cookies! 1p57SNzsMkXQXkSgoRegrm4k4mr19TrrL  Bang its that easy.

bottom line is if bitcoin was used MORE as a medium of exchange and not speculation, its value would be very stable.

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June 21, 2012, 10:56:09 PM
 #254

but why sell at 6.7 if you can at 7+ Huh

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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June 22, 2012, 03:54:23 PM
 #255





I'm not surprised anymore by how quickly the picture changes.  I'm sure lots of people are getting really anxious right now.  I don't think we're far from seeing an enormous bite taken out of the bids.  $6.80 is the new $7.20 is the new $32.00.  Maybe back into high $4s over the next 3-4 months and then $5.something becomes the new $6.80?
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June 22, 2012, 04:30:37 PM
 #256

I'm not surprised anymore by how quickly the picture changes.  I'm sure lots of people are getting really anxious right now.  I don't think we're far from seeing an enormous bite taken out of the bids.  $6.80 is the new $7.20 is the new $32.00.  Maybe back into high $4s over the next 3-4 months and then $5.something becomes the new $6.80?

The trend is up.

Up 80 cents from $5.8 to $6.6, retraced 60 cents to ~$6.03. Then up ~80 cents from ~$6.03 to $6.8. Could retrace to $6.2?

Sellers are not anxious yet, you can see this in the lack of reaction to the ask walls (did not spark a sell-off, instead price hugged the ask wall at $6.7). Contrast that to how the market reacts when a bid wall goes up (panic buying, because trend is up). We've been here before, but that was coming off $2! This time we're coming off $5. It wasn't that long ago.. this time sellers won't get anxious until after $7.2 (or we stall in the $6's for weeks).

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June 22, 2012, 05:01:23 PM
 #257

I think we have approached a sensitive point. The rally was quiet optimistic and all the buying pressure that has built up over the past month was set in motion, but since more and more ask walls pop up, once others are torn down, it seems we wont reach 7.00$ any time soon. Buyers get impatient and fear people take there profits now and buying pressure slows down to a point were it reverses.
There is some anxiety in the air also, the recent dump from 6.67$ to 6.55$ triggered some panic selling there and I think we wont return to 6.70$ now, but head back to the low 6.somethings. My buy orders are put in the range of 6.00$ -6.10$ right now.
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June 22, 2012, 05:04:47 PM
 #258

I agree with purchasing in the 6.0x range at the moment. I think it will take some patience, but I think it unlikely those bids will be left behind.

I could be totally wrong of course =)

-bgc

I'm selling great Minion Games like The Manhattan Project, Kingdom of Solomon and Venture Forth at 4% off retail starting June 2012. PM me or go to my thread in the Marketplace if you're interested.

For Settlers/Dominion/Carcassone etc., I do email gift cards on Amazon for a 5% fee. PM if you're interested.
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June 22, 2012, 05:07:40 PM
 #259

give it a day or two Wink

Maybe can break that 7.00 $ Pinata filled with tastylicious Bitcoin and get the party started.
But unless we do, Im short term bearish.
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June 23, 2012, 06:45:23 AM
 #260

of course it's the weekend, so things will quiet down most likely...
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