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Author Topic: ◢◤ e-SPORT ◢◤ picks ►►► (+54.99 units)  (Read 60144 times)
magicmexican
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February 18, 2015, 05:09:12 PM
 #321

why u dont bet vp vs pr for today sir ?

Line was pretty sharp, did not see enough edge to enter.
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magicmexican
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February 18, 2015, 08:46:49 PM
Last edit: February 18, 2015, 09:06:36 PM by magicmexican
 #322

Looked like i faded VPP-PR for a good reason, Polar somehow managed to throw game 1 with a farmed medusa, and could lose the series now.
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February 18, 2015, 09:39:49 PM
 #323

might start a thread for csgo picks on nitrogen in the near future seeing as some games have been added to the esports section
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February 18, 2015, 10:12:27 PM
 #324

might start a thread for csgo picks on nitrogen in the near future seeing as some games have been added to the esports section

Good luck, csgo is a tough market imo, and very fucking shady too.
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February 18, 2015, 10:19:02 PM
 #325

might start a thread for csgo picks on nitrogen in the near future seeing as some games have been added to the esports section

Good luck, csgo is a tough market imo, and very fucking shady too.

agreed, hackers on professional teams, ddos every so often, and match fixing scandals.. I have managed to turn a bit of profit starting with only an ak red laminate (~5 usd) however, and if you could drop by the thread every now that'd mean a lot.

http://gyazo.com/ce411442051ea59bd18523b9fd11f7a7
magicmexican
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February 18, 2015, 10:50:09 PM
 #326

Feb 19 picks






Trust vs Mineski canceled, and results of the day will be posted shortly, nothing too interesting there, up 0.2 units or something
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February 18, 2015, 11:33:42 PM
 #327

Results

2W-2L   +0.22 units

Total: 244W-218L   +26.48 units

gizane
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February 19, 2015, 05:43:03 AM
 #328

 
   Greetings, here i will be sharing my E-sport picks.

  
          
    Results  :

      462 bets : 244 Wins / 218 Losses  +26.48 units

      You can also find my picks here -> [BLOG]


   [FAQ]


1) Who am i ?

I am the ex-starcraft2/dota2 player who played both games at a decent semi-competetive level (Starcraft 2 Master League, ~5500 MMR in dota 2). But this, however, is not important and does not guarantee that one would be good or not @handicapping e-sports. Anyone who claims that their gaming expirience gives them edge in betting is full of crap.

2) How long i've been doing it ?

This, however, is important.

I've been betting on e-sports for a little over 3 years now. I've placed over 5000 dota bets and over 1000 starcraft bets during this period. With solid earnings in both areas over the long run.

3) What makes my picks +EV ?

Without giving away too much from my system (you should understand why), i can say that i've been following and researching the competetive e-sport scene for a very, very long time.

10+ years of following the Starcraft (starting with the SC:Broodwar, starcraft2's predecessor).
4+  years of following Dota 2 (starting with the earliest beta tournaments).

To get the decent edge, you need the knowledge. And in addition to that, you need to find that balance between going for the favorite and value-betting against the masses in the right spots. This takes a lot of expirience.  Also, understanding of the fundamental gambling concepts (EV, variance, tilt control, bankroll management, etc) is crucial to secure the longterm winnings.

Overall, the combination of all the above allowed me to avoid tons of mistakes and mass a healthy amount of winnings, beating the field over the years.

I have full confidence in my picks, they've proven to net a positive return over thousands of games. From past 5 months i am up 111.6 units after 1139 placed bets.

4) Why only Starcraft&Dota? What about other games? CounterStrike, League of legends, Hearthstone?

I will be offering the Dota&Starcraft picks only. There are 2 reasons for that :

First, i have a very little to none personal interest in other games. I simply do not enjoy them. And its not easy to dedicate a decent amount of time to something that you dont enjoy watching or playing at all.

And second, the more important - i am the dota/starcraft specialist, and focusing on these 2 games is already a big commitment.

This is nearly a full time job, the amount of matches and information you need to follow and analyze is substantial.

5) Where to bet?

with BTC      :  NitroGenSports  

with fiat   :   pinnaclesports   or   bet365  ( Under 'Specials' > 'World' )



----------------------------------------------------------

Some things you need to know:


1) I dont use any martingale type of betsizing to chase losses. The size of my bets is in range of 0.2-1.2 units.

2) I recommend using a bankroll of at least 50-60 units.

3) I dont take parlays seriosly. I can place a parlay now and then when i think its a good spot, but i never allow parlays to affect the longterm profits.
    (and i also dont include parlays in the stats, all the results are 100% straight bets)


Nice one
This is the reason I can come back to betting in dota
Thx and good job to post this thread
fairlay
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February 19, 2015, 08:08:46 AM
 #329

Hi magicmexican! Impressiv thread!

We are a prediction market and a betting exchange around for more than one year. A few days ago we tremendously expanded our sport section. We managed to get some market makers on board who usally offer better odds than pinnacle and nitrogen. Lets assume we would add esports to our sport section - would you consider switching to fairlay.com if we would have better odds?

www.fairlay.com - the Bitcoin prediction market - the future of reliable information
magicmexican
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February 19, 2015, 10:18:24 AM
 #330

Hi magicmexican! Impressiv thread!

We are a prediction market and a betting exchange around for more than one year. A few days ago we tremendously expanded our sport section. We managed to get some market makers on board who usally offer better odds than pinnacle and nitrogen. Lets assume we would add esports to our sport section - would you consider switching to fairlay.com if we would have better odds?

Thats depends on a lot of factors, odds are significant one, but not the one and only. Support, betting limits, speed of withdrawals, etc - all of those matter almost just as much.
magicmexican
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February 19, 2015, 10:43:33 AM
 #331

Additional Feb 19 picks

magicmexican
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February 19, 2015, 01:20:15 PM
 #332

Decent start of the day with Arcanys covering both picks right off the bat, rest of the dota bets for a day are almost a freeroll right now.
fairlay
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February 19, 2015, 05:15:50 PM
 #333

Hi magicmexican! Impressiv thread!

We are a prediction market and a betting exchange around for more than one year. A few days ago we tremendously expanded our sport section. We managed to get some market makers on board who usally offer better odds than pinnacle and nitrogen. Lets assume we would add esports to our sport section - would you consider switching to fairlay.com if we would have better odds?

Thats depends on a lot of factors, odds are significant one, but not the one and only. Support, betting limits, speed of withdrawals, etc - all of those matter almost just as much.

Fair enough. We let you know if we decide to add esports.

www.fairlay.com - the Bitcoin prediction market - the future of reliable information
magicmexican
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February 19, 2015, 06:59:09 PM
 #334

Additional Feb 19 picks



Pretty sad showing from the Empire, i guess the rumour of one of their players being snatched by Navi is looking closer to the truth. Dissapointment of the day.
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February 19, 2015, 07:27:40 PM
Last edit: February 19, 2015, 09:05:12 PM by magicmexican
 #335

Additional starcraft picks



magicmexican
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February 19, 2015, 09:22:40 PM
 #336

Results coming as soon as NiP will finish their game vs PR, about an hour or so.
magicmexican
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February 19, 2015, 10:31:06 PM
 #337

Results

5W-1L  +3.04 units

Total: 249W-219L   +29.52 units





Both lucky and unlucky today. Arcanys really underperformed, and should've lost us 2.4 units here, but the opposite team played really terrible, and threw the decent advantage. Considering how often i've lost units thanks to retarded throws this month, i think its fair to finally ride a positive side of the variance for once.

Empire though... They did win a series, yes, but not covering -1,5 spread against 4Anchors is pretty damn inexcusable, the difference in skill between teams is so large that even playing with 75% of their strengh they should've taken the 2-0 victory without any problems whatsoever. The quality of play they've displayed today is laughable.
magicmexican
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February 19, 2015, 10:38:21 PM
 #338

No new picks at the moment, just posting the pendings ones:


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=900561.msg10515137#msg10515137
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=900561.msg10500000#msg10500000
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=900561.msg10451105#msg10451105


Now keep in mind, that some of these are already finished, and some have odds changed so drastically that should be avoided (For example the PiG vs Happy match, i had Pig at 4.125, and he is at 2.668 now)
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February 19, 2015, 11:17:59 PM
 #339

hey magicmexican do you have skype? or any type of messenger, can you please PM your contact info?? appreciate it
magicmexican
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February 19, 2015, 11:19:56 PM
 #340

hey magicmexican do you have skype? or any type of messenger, can you please PM your contact info?? appreciate it

Drop me a PM why would you want it and we will go from there.
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